Russian special military operation in Ukraine #10

Arkanghelsk wrote:

Podlodka77 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:

3 4 5 6 are disasters

Kiev is a lost cause.
I am not an optimist about the assimilation of many parts of Ukraine, for example the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and we see that Ukrainians are being arrested en masse in Crimea as well, who have been dormant for 8 years and now they want to hurt Russia with sabotage.
It has been 100 years since Lenin gave everything from Kharkov to Odessa and we see that there are a lot of Ukrainians (half of them were actually Russians in the past) who do not want to live with Russia, with Russia, under Russia or whatever. The biggest culprit for that is Lenin's stench. I would throw his remains in the Moscow sewer.
Kiev as the capital is certainly even more dramatic on that issue.
My personal opinion is that everything from Kharkov to Odessa should be separated from Ukraine, but those parts should not be annexed to Russia, but a new Novorussia or whatever. Only Donetsk and Lugansk are ready to join Russia, while in other regions there are many fascists and Russia does not need them under its umbrella.

Russia really has to take the whole thing. If they don't there will be all kinds of mini civil wars breaking out. Essentially they need to take the whole thing. Define the final partition, allow people to relocate. Have Russian oversight for a period of time, then depart the Western side and annex the eastern side.

mnztr wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:

Podlodka77 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:

3 4 5 6 are disasters

Kiev is a lost cause.
I am not an optimist about the assimilation of many parts of Ukraine, for example the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and we see that Ukrainians are being arrested en masse in Crimea as well, who have been dormant for 8 years and now they want to hurt Russia with sabotage.
It has been 100 years since Lenin gave everything from Kharkov to Odessa and we see that there are a lot of Ukrainians (half of them were actually Russians in the past) who do not want to live with Russia, with Russia, under Russia or whatever. The biggest culprit for that is Lenin's stench. I would throw his remains in the Moscow sewer.
Kiev as the capital is certainly even more dramatic on that issue.
My personal opinion is that everything from Kharkov to Odessa should be separated from Ukraine, but those parts should not be annexed to Russia, but a new Novorussia or whatever. Only Donetsk and Lugansk are ready to join Russia, while in other regions there are many fascists and Russia does not need them under its umbrella.

Russia really has to take the whole thing. If they don't there will be all kinds of mini civil wars breaking out. Essentially they need to take the whole thing. Define the final partition, allow people to relocate. Have Russian oversight for a period of time, then depart the Western side and annex the eastern side.

Russia should put the entire territory of Ukraine within its security zone, and that is all. I would also be satisfied with Russian military bases from Lviv to Kharkov. Should these and such Ukrainian fascists infiltrate Russia in the future, if Russia would already take over the whole of Ukraine? No ! I'm sorry but that's my opinion. The Russians and the Ukrainians have obviously split. I do not doubt the Russian victory, because there is no talk about it or my doubts, but it is about the fact that I think that neither Kherson, nor Kharkov, Zaporozhye, etc., should become part of the Russian Federation. Novorussia or something like that, YES, but not as part of the RF.

Podlodka77 wrote:

Russia should put the entire territory of Ukraine within its security zone, and that is all. I would also be satisfied with Russian military bases from Lviv to Kharkov. Should these and such Ukrainian fascists infiltrate Russia in the future, if Russia would already take over the whole of Ukraine? No ! I'm sorry but that's my opinion. The Russians and the Ukrainians have obviously split. I do not doubt the Russian victory, because there is no talk about it or my doubts, but it is about the fact that I think that neither Kherson, nor Kharkov, Zaporozhye, etc., should become part of the Russian Federation. Novorussia or something like that, YES, but not as part of the RF.

Yes at least for a certain number of years (maybe 5 for some regions, maybe 10/15 years for others, then eventually if the population agrees it can be proposed a referendum to join the Russian Federation.

Other regions, to be kept as a protectorate (defeated state with limited sovereignty).

No parts has to be allowed to join other economic or military alliances (unless RF plan to put some parts of northwestern Ucraine as a Trojan horse in the European Union or in Poland).

So Ukrainians received 100 switchblade suicide drones. 10 drones per each system (basically, a mortar and controller)

It seems US wants to test new gadgets. It will be useless against tanks at least.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

Podlodka77 wrote:

Russia should put the entire territory of Ukraine within its security zone, and that is all. I would also be satisfied with Russian military bases from Lviv to Kharkov. Should these and such Ukrainian fascists infiltrate Russia in the future, if Russia would already take over the whole of Ukraine? No ! I'm sorry but that's my opinion. The Russians and the Ukrainians have obviously split. I do not doubt the Russian victory, because there is no talk about it or my doubts, but it is about the fact that I think that neither Kherson, nor Kharkov, Zaporozhye, etc., should become part of the Russian Federation. Novorussia or something like that, YES, but not as part of the RF.

Yes at least for a certain number of years (maybe 5 for some regions, maybe 10/15 years for others, then eventually if the population agrees it can be proposed a referendum to join the Russian Federation.

Other regions, to be kept as a protectorate (defeated state with limited sovereignty).

No parts has to be allowed to join other economic or military alliances (unless RF plan to put some parts of northwestern Ucraine as a Trojan horse in the European Union or in Poland).

Something like that but NEVER ever as part of RF !
Do you want these butchers and murderers to suddenly come under the auspices of Russia? I doubt it.
Let them be a Russian satellite, but the Russian Federation does not need a "Ukrainian" burden. They dont deserve russian passport. 5 or 10 years is not enough, it takes much more time.

I have never had a high opinion of the so-called "Ukrainians", now I have even less. They were under the Russian Orthodox Church for hundreds of years and then they invented their own.  The seeds of evil were sown during Lenin's time, and there will always be someone to initiate anti-Russian policy. That is the biggest problem, because they want to emphasize their differences in relation to Russia through the church. They started with that and few decades later all this happened. Ukraine needs to be defeated militarily to the end. Only then can we talk about denazification, which is a much longer process than demilitarization.
I'm just expressing my opinion and nothing more.

Arkanghelsk wrote:It does seem likely,

With bucha propaganda,  that Europe will destroy itself to start a war

Well they have committed suicide twice before, third time is a charm

What I do not understand is the slow movement of Russian forces and if analysts expect a larger war with Europe

Why are civilians and VSU casualties continuing to be a concern

How can there be any pretense of negotiations with this nazi regime ?

Yes Russians have begun to accept a long war, but why? Why not just end this quickly which Russia can do

What is the attrition for? Cui Bono?

Because neither you nor I understand high politics.
Because neither you nor I know how or what statesmen talk behind closed doors.
Because neither you nor I are generals to know the best way to achieve a military goal.
Because we do not know whether the NAZI-NATO pact will decide to go to war with Russia, and then we must preserve the best we have.
Because neither you nor I know what the plans of the Russian state leadership are and what they are like.

hmm and i see some OSINT reporter sharing news on Ukrainian advance toward Kherson. I'm curious tho about Russian defense plan there. at least one of the osint account claimed Russia will retreat behind Dniepr river to gain more defensible position.

In my view tho such cannot be the case as Russia are setting new administration in Kherson. Should Ukraine take Kherson, there would be more Bucha and perhaps even more severe.

Stealthflanker wrote:hmm and i see some OSINT reporter sharing news on Ukrainian advance toward Kherson.  I'm curious tho about Russian defense plan there. at least one of the osint account claimed Russia will retreat behind Dniepr river to gain more defensible position.

In my view tho such cannot be the case as Russia are setting new administration in Kherson.  Should Ukraine take Kherson, there would be more Bucha and perhaps even more severe.

They've been bringing up their brigades from Odessa it seems.

But Russia is only advancing in the area, albeit slowly, as it waits for Ukrainian attacks and then repels them

They recently took the town Snegirovka in the Nikolayev region, with a population of 12k, where they confiscated a whole cache of weapons left by the Ukrainian army for the locals

Milinfolive wrote:https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_2394413

" Handicraft armoring with improvised materials of wheeled vehicles of the RF Armed Forces in the hope of increasing protection."

Not the first time we are seeing trucks with wooden armor.

Russia needs more of these bad boys Ural-63704-0010

Arkanghelsk wrote:Well I guess your right podlodka

At least Ukraine is a nice fight before the title fight

Russian military got shit ton of experience in a high intensity conflict

And we will be able to beat USA and NATO in the title round

USA and NATO stood back when our analysts assumed in 2014 that they would impose a no fly zone and defend Ukraine

I guess it showed they are a paper tiger only

Ukraine is better armed than Turkey, UK, USA, and France so it is good

I just wish we had scorned Ukraine more

Think realistically, where would you beat USA? On Russian territory maybe. Not with the current size of the Russian military and population, a non-nuclear war would be a demographic catastrophe as well. Russia needs more births, more population, more workers, better productivity and to become more self-reliant. Better fight against the hegemony of US dollar and build Asian orientated economy, so much better things to do than fight one war after another, no?

No one from NATO wants mutual destruction.

Podlodka77 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:

3 4 5 6 are disasters

Kiev is a lost cause.
I am not an optimist about the assimilation of many parts of Ukraine, for example the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and we see that Ukrainians are being arrested en masse in Crimea as well, who have been dormant for 8 years and now they want to hurt Russia with sabotage.
It has been 100 years since Lenin gave everything from Kharkov to Odessa and we see that there are a lot of Ukrainians (half of them were actually Russians in the past) who do not want to live with Russia, with Russia, under Russia or whatever. The biggest culprit for that is Lenin's stench. I would throw his remains in the Moscow sewer.
Kiev as the capital is certainly even more dramatic on that issue.
My personal opinion is that everything from Kharkov to Odessa should be separated from Ukraine, but those parts should not be annexed to Russia, but a new Novorussia or whatever. Only Donetsk and Lugansk are ready to join Russia, while in other regions there are many fascists and Russia does not need them under its umbrella.

Exactly. The problem with Lenin and the left communists is that they do not understand races and nations. Communism is an artifice. Stalin understood it well because he was dedicated to that subject in the USSR.
The man must be with his own, not with others.

Arkanghelsk wrote:I think, cynically, the leadership thinks of Ukraine as Syria

I don't think there is a state building program

I don't think quite frankly they give a shit about state governance or even administrative services

I know everyone here is moralist and sees it from the point of view that Russia is "better" than the west

Personally I don't think it has anything to do with such am immature perspective of good/bad

Yes there can be rationalization for Russian military interventions in Syria and Ukraine

But from what I understand,  even in Syria , it's not so much about state building,  it was simple, leave Assad , no state building , no economic structuring

Let Assad figure it out

In Ukraine , it seems the same,  leave zelensky and the EU pay for Ukraine, which they do

Our military will dominate the ground, and keep the US and NATO out

It's a cost benefit equation

The US and EU will help zelensky maintain the state, we do not worry about it

But militarily, NATO will not be present in Ukraine

Leave the leadership and let there be semblance of governance

But no NATO

Yes we will be in Ukraine for 10, 15 years

But it costs less feeding them

The Kremlin Performs a sort of jeet kun do

Minimum effort, and address the issues as they come

As flaming said, adaptability, like water

Russia doesn't bet on anything although there's loud statements about China , but we keep dealing with the EU

It's a low effort which achieves its main goal

In such a case

- keep assad
- no nato in Ukraine
- sell gas to EU , in rubles, only because it became a problem

- deal with the world as it comes, but we do not shape the world , rather mulipolarity shapes the world we address it as the stages are set

- no maximalist goals , just easy to achieve goals which are desired and achievable with low cost and basic reward

- no delusion of grandeur

They are different situations.
The Syrians are an anti-Western and anti-Jewish people. They knew their enemy very well and supported their government against US-funded terrorism.
Western Ukrainians are bastards who deserve to disappear.

Podlodka77 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:

3 4 5 6 are disasters

Kiev is a lost cause.
I am not an optimist about the assimilation of many parts of Ukraine, for example the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and we see that Ukrainians are being arrested en masse in Crimea as well, who have been dormant for 8 years and now they want to hurt Russia with sabotage.
It has been 100 years since Lenin gave everything from Kharkov to Odessa and we see that there are a lot of Ukrainians (half of them were actually Russians in the past) who do not want to live with Russia, with Russia, under Russia or whatever. The biggest culprit for that is Lenin's stench. I would throw his remains in the Moscow sewer.
Kiev as the capital is certainly even more dramatic on that issue.
My personal opinion is that everything from Kharkov to Odessa should be separated from Ukraine, but those parts should not be annexed to Russia, but a new Novorussia or whatever. Only Donetsk and Lugansk are ready to join Russia, while in other regions there are many fascists and Russia does not need them under its umbrella.

Although in a perfect scenario Russian takes control on the whole of Ukraine although NOT incorporated into Russia. But realistically before it got to that point Ukraine will have struck a deal and the west run away saying that they won somehow.

I can't see Russia giving up Kherson all the way up to Kharkiv. And Odessa will also be taken. Kherson was quite important giving a water supply to Crimea which was greatly needed and saved Crimea from expensive desalination plants. Kharkiv all the way down to Kherson creates a nice buffer and encompasses the Russian speakers as well as giving the best industries Ukraine has. Perfect for start for a new Novorussia federation. Odessa completes this making rest of Ukraine landlocked, another key port, and link up to Transnistria and Gagauzia. And giving Putin the option or bargaining chip of Moldova with west tries to play any dirty tricks. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast would be another good region to take as this also has good industries for the taking and adds to the buffer. Any other regions taken would be a bonus.

This would give a new Novorussia plenty of key industries as well as large agricultural industries and sea ports to become a successful country/federation. While the rest of Ukraine pretty much becomes nothing more than a agricultural industry with nothing else and having to have EU, UK and USA constantly be bailing them out with loans a nice drain on their coffers. And although the new country will need investment and I am sure, between Russia,China, Iran, and some middle Eastern countries it will be sorted within 10yrs. I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey ended up in the mix..and some western companies even doing some trade. Within 5yrs Europe and UK will be back trading fully it will be gradual but it will happen. However I would stress apart from Crimea which has already happened no other part of Ukraine will be taken under direct Russian federation. I would suggest though after the war that south Ossetia, Abkhazia, are fully incorporated into Russia federation, as for Transnistria and Gagauzia they can either become part of the new Novorussia federation or become under Russian federation something similar to enclave like Kaliningrad. I feel that the latter would most likely be the case as Transnistria has been longing for Russian integration.

Arkanghelsk wrote:

Well there is much to learn , for our military

No offense, but I think your military learned and perfected ways how to fight a different war and were told to FORGET IT.

Combined armored operations, massive artillery deployment, maneuvers, taking over of key points, destruction of enemy formations. All in a swift and decisive manner in a span of weeks, not months.

Just like in Vostok exercises. This would work against any military - NATO, Ukraine, Vatican.




Hell, look at this video, even exercises had bigger engagements than what is happening in Ukraine.

All the talk about civilian casualties and saving infrastructure is political mumbo jumbo in the end as long conflicts accumulate damage just as well as short ones.

But the Americans could not hold bagram and the taliban are no VSU

With the skeleton crew and 0 political will, no. But VSU is also not Americans and hold every little city they can.

Ukraine looks more and more like an army training ground

Excuse me, but training in what? What not to do? I still believe the Russian military knows 2+2. What is there to learn exactly? That more troops are needed? How to use single pieces of artillery instead because civilians might be caught in the crossfire?

I have not seen anything like that during exercises, it makes no sense to learn on the go.

I would rather finish it quick, but if Syria is anything to go by the MOD will stay there for 10+ years

Same. But 10 years? Who would be the victor of this? Definitely not Russia or Ukraine.

About the time of this operation, I think it's limited, and correct me if I am wrong. Russian army has how many contract soldiers? 400k or so? 190k or so are deployed, who will rotate them? If the Syrian example is to be followed, then Russians rotated their crew very often. There was no fatigue or exhaustion like in Afghanistan. Acclimatisation then 3+- months for some specialists. Even better than ISAF deployments.

So Russian staying power is also something to be seen and understood

Not with the current troop size, hence why the Northern front was abandoned.

The politicians fail at state building

I think there are more things that politicians are failing. Can't comment now and I hope I am wrong, but I think overoptimism and unrealistic plans were in play. It doesn't mean the military can't solve the problem that shouldn't have existed in the first place.

But the military does its job with longevity

Most of the time, yes. A military is just a tool in the end and they are bound to political decisions. Sorry for my Russian, but my father used to say to me - Приказ должен выполняться, а не обсуждаться.

We can stay in places where the Americans cannot

To be honest, I don't give a fck what Americans can or can't. They can put a 12-inch dildo up their ass, but it doesn't mean anyone else needs to compete. I am not sure if their failures can be used as a benchmark.

And maintain a larger presence in a warzone then them

Again, not the case in any conflict Americans faced. For example, Gulf war- US and allies had more than 1 million troops against 500k or so Iraqis. Later wars followed a similar fashion. Their presence was enormous and numbers alone dominated the battlefield. Insurgency picked up only when majority of troops started to be pulled back, but that's another phase of conflict and Russia in fact knows much better how to deal with this.

What I am saying, that Russian needs to launch offensive soon and fight how Russian army fights. I am not sure what is going in the background, but if the North was abandoned, then military is being listened to. Military wants to vyebat VSU in weeks, not in 10+ years and I think this is where it's going. I am talking about JTO concentrations.