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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

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    Arrow


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    Post  Arrow Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:12 pm

    Russia would have to gather all ground forces without mobilization to attack Ukraine Rolling Eyes
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    Post  ALAMO Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:23 pm

    ... and what for?

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    Post  Arrow Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:29 pm

    Of course, an attack on Ukraine would be one of the stupidest ideas that would weaken Russia a lot and in Washington they could drink champagne for a week on this occasion.  Fortunately, Russia does not have to invest anything in Ukraine anymore.  Let new Ukraine patrons worry Laughing

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    Post  Isos Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:36 pm

    Russia needs 10 iskander and 24 su-30 to actually win against Ukraine.

    Invasion is a big word. 100k is enough to push through the country and not go inside cities where guerilla can act but just use artillery to take out enemy position every where even in cities. It is also enough to destroy the governement and help friendly forces.

    Contrary to iraq Russia actually has a big support among ukrainians.

    Invasion + occupation isn't something Russia wants. They didn't occupy Georgia but yet succeded on achieving their goals.

    The guerilla ukrainian would create would be mostly nazis helped by US. Rest of the army wouldn't fight because that would lead to many civilian death (guerilla opperates within tve population and russia would bomb them). Normal ukrainian won't risk their families against russians which are a cousin people.

    Most pro russians make the mistake of seeing all the ukrainians as those nazis that took power. That's not true. Most just wanted better economic conditions when they went on maidan protest and voted for EU pact. Those have no plan to fight russians for US interests.
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    Post  ALAMO Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:37 pm

    ...they can always be there, for the rescue ... Gefest bum, bum, bum, bum ... oh hey, we run out of bombs made till 1962, let us use the ones made after .. bum...bum...bum ...
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    Post  Krepost Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:45 am

    In Iraq, despite all the money spent, the USA had a hard time infiltrating the insurgent groups: mostly because of language barrier and physical appearance. They had to use Iraqi "moles" but these were generally speaking not effective.
    In 404, it will be very easy for the Russians/Novorossians to infiltrate any insurgent cell, group or organization because they look the same and speak the same language.

    If Russia conquers Ukraine (and that is a big "if"), the local Russian-friendly government with its military, police and security forces will have to take care of cleaning up and sanitizing the country from the remnants of the Nazi scum. Practices dating back to the Stalin-era will have to be revived.
    All Russian Army units should withdraw to their barracks and only lend in remote assistance in the form of intel, aerial surveillance etc.

    By the way, most Ukrainians (and one way or the other) will gladly or reluctantly accept Russian rule and peace.
    Only a very small proportion of Ukrainians (the hard-core "Slava Ukrainy" nutjobs) will be willing to fight and die.

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    Post  Azi Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:33 am

    ALAMO wrote:
    lancelot wrote:It took a lot less than 500000 troops to actually invade Iraq and topple the government.
    The US had roughly the same amount of troops they claim Russia has right now in Ukraine.
    And Ukraine has a way worse material disadvantage than even the Iraqi army had.

    You didn't get the point.
    And kvs has it.
    The first Desert Storm back in 1991, was performed by a 0.5 mln allied army, supported by another 0.5 mln as a reserve.
    The build-up was lasting almost a year.
    Ant the goal was to strike an operette army of Saddam, compromised by any means, assets&ways.
    The allies know the precise location of any single C&C center, communication hubs, and the technical construction of it.
    Because it was a fuckin' Siemens and Alcatel who made those and presented all o that just on a silver plate.
    Russikies, besides of having no will&goal, have no strength to occupy the Ukraine.
    Add to that the economical misery of it, and you will get a shape.
    What kind of economic misery? Sanctions would hit western europe too! So it's fair Wink

    I bet my ass...if Russia will kick Ukronazi asses they will do it not with 100000 soldiers. Mobilization could be very quick, if situation escalates. So consider more 300000 to 400000 soldiers in a big operation. Additional belarussian troops could be involved...depending on the situation.

    Do you really believe some grandmas and granpas with guns will defend Kiev against the Russian Army??? The hard core of Ukronazis are let's say 10.000 to 20.000 men...not more than the terrorists in Chechenya some years ago.

    Give the people 100 Dollar for every gun returned and 500-3000 Dollar for every shitty Nazi cell betrayed. No resistance! Nationalism is nice, money is better!

    You would see Ukraine defeated in 2 weeks...russian tanks in Kiev cheered by the masses...and the whole western house of cards IMPLODING. They try to weaken Russia with more sanctions and a scenario like Afghanistan 2.0...but they know NOTHING about the mentality of slavic people. And I bet my ass...all the surveys (support for NATO, will of resitsnace, hate against Russia etc.) in Ukraine are more or less rigged!

    ---

    From my point of view Russia is not going to invade Ukraine! But they prepare for every situation (provocations).

    Dangerous is only Uncle Sam...the debile and retarded politicians in Washington are trying to provoke Russia. And to be true not all politicians in Washington are that retarded, but hysteria is raging through the media they see russians at every corner. Problem for journalists and politicians in USA is...if they are not pro provocation and war they are seen as "russian assets". The whole problem with and in Ukraine is one of symptoms of the dying decadent superpower USA...the Nazis in Ukraine are only a tool.

    So if Russia is provocated they will hit...very very hard! Ukraine as we know it will be history and more or less absorbed. That's why they mass troops.
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    Post  lyle6 Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:44 am

    Why are we comparing the US bungled handling of Iraq when we have a far better analogy in Russia's excellent Syria campaign?

    kvs wrote:
    Nope.  Kiev regime Ukraine can put up a guerrilla resistance that would sap a small occupation force.
    Unlike Iraq, there is ample land to hide in such a war.   Iraq is a desert where the yanquis could engage
    in a turkey shoot with their Apaches.   The yanquis thought they could use them against Serbia in 1999
    and stopped the operation.  
    There is no 'hiding' even in the remote stretches of the Carpathians. You go Rambo in the mountains and flocks of drones and special forces would hunt you down with almost contemptuous ease. No you hide in urban areas, or better yet, in safe zones guarded by friendly forces, which could only really mean neighboring Poland. But borders are a lot easier to secure, and saboteur cells hiding within the population are targets for policing action, i.e. no knock raids in the middle of the knight with swat teams, not combined arms battalions. This problem is a whole lot more manageable.

    And the divided population of Ukraine can easily supply the requisite bodies. They just need the Russians to provide force exponentiation with intelligence, training, materiel and the occasional heavy metal support to counteract the western support of their enemies.

    kvs wrote:
    Western Ukraine cannot be occupied by 100,000 soldiers.   Poland would be supplying them both men
    and materiel.   We already had a guerrilla war in western Ukraine running from 1945 until around Stalin's
    death in 1953.   The UK hosted training camps for Ukrs who were participating in this war.
    This isn't the 1950s, this isn't even the 1990s. Its hell of a lot easier today for a token force to occupy much larger areas and control larger populations of people. For instance surveillance technology has come a long way, or rather, almost every human willingly carries with him a tracker and wire tap device any where he goes.

    kvs wrote:
    Iraq was divided between Shiites and Sunni, which the US used to overthrow Saddam.   The part of Ukraine
    that does not have a hate hard on for Russia is not going to fight western Ukrainians.  
    They would for a pay cheque. Or just empty Ukrainian jails and have them serve their sentences out as your muscle.
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    Post  Azi Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:07 am

    kvs wrote:Western Ukraine cannot be occupied by 100,000 soldiers.   Poland would be supplying them both men
    and materiel.   We already had a guerrilla war in western Ukraine running from 1945 until around Stalin's
    death in 1953.   The UK hosted training camps for Ukrs who were participating in this war.  
    It's true that a guerilla war raged in western Ukraine for some years...but but but...

    It was the USSR and the people in actually western Ukraine had no hate for Russia, they had hate gainst communism. The Ukrainian resistance fought against the Poles! They identified more with Russians than with Poles and they committed during WW2 massacres against Poles. They fought later against the communists because the don't wanted to live under communist rulership. Yes...OUN was anti russian but it was more anti polish, anti jew and anti communism.

    Of course the modern ukrainian nationalists are full of hate against russians, but only because Uncle Sam and some retards in Ukraine rewrote history. The retards in Ukraine think they are superior beings and all russians live in mud huts, are poor and Stalin is russian...hahaha X-D

    Fun fact is that Ukraine was very pro Russia in history...the last hundred years. They were so pro russian that they suffered during communism, because a lot of cossacks supported the tsar! And the Ukrainians in western parts hated to live under Poland.

    The relationship between Poland and ukrainian nationalist now is more or less weird or let's say cringe...best comparison would be Poland cheering to a maybe neonazi german goverment, praising Hitler and Waffen-SS.


    Last edited by Azi on Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:16 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Azi Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:13 am

    lyle6 wrote:
    This isn't the 1950s, this isn't even the 1990s. Its hell of a lot easier today for a token force to occupy much larger areas and control larger populations of people. For instance surveillance technology has come a long way, or rather, almost every human willingly carries with him a tracker and wire tap device any where he goes.
    Exact! Russia is not communist and Putin is not Stalin!

    Even the neonazi scum in Ukraine could do in Russia what they want...doing stupid stuff, shitty music, collecting devotional Nazis shit stuff... as long as they don't fu*k with the government!
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    Post  thegopnik Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:18 am

    Arrow wrote:Of course, an attack on Ukraine would be one of the stupidest ideas that would weaken Russia a lot and in Washington they could drink champagne for a week on this occasion.  Fortunately, Russia does not have to invest anything in Ukraine anymore.  Let new Ukraine patrons worry Laughing

    FOAB has a 300 meter blast radius and TOS-2 that covers 60,000 square feet that having like 50 or so systems you can cause destruction equivalent to nukes. I wont forgive Russia if they kill the game developers of STALKER 2 Laughing
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:19 am

    ALAMO wrote:
    lancelot wrote:It took a lot less than 500000 troops to actually invade Iraq and topple the government.
    The US had roughly the same amount of troops they claim Russia has right now in Ukraine.
    And Ukraine has a way worse material disadvantage than even the Iraqi army had.

    You didn't get the point.
    And kvs has it.
    The first Desert Storm back in 1991, was performed by a 0.5 mln allied army, supported by another 0.5 mln as a reserve.
    The build-up was lasting almost a year.
    Ant the goal was to strike an operette army of Saddam, compromised by any means, assets&ways.
    The allies know the precise location of any single C&C center, communication hubs, and the technical construction of it.
    Because it was a fuckin' Siemens and Alcatel who made those and presented all o that just on a silver plate.
    Russikies, besides of having no will&goal, have no strength to occupy the Ukraine.
    Add to that the economical misery of it, and you will get a shape.

    Every time Russia loses a war, it has a revolution. Russo-Japanese, WW1, Afghanistan..

    Does anybody here seriously contemplate, that Russia would risk a full-scale occupation of the Ukraine?
    Just what the hell would the objectives be? Some nation-building crap like what the US tried in Iraq and Afghanistan?
    Sure Russia understands the Ukraine far better than the US does anybody that's not the US - but that's not the point.

    Russia will have nothing to do there, just take loses from some insurgency, throw money down a black hole of a country that it already is even without any war, and then eventually just leave having achieved nothing. Maybe take the eastern half of it with it, but that would be about it. It would still be a loss, and the remainder of the Ukraine will give nothing but non-stop problems for Russia.

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    Post  ATLASCUB Sat Jan 29, 2022 4:13 am

    Zelenky and the oligarchs behind him have a small window of opportunity chance to do the right thing and flip back to Russia's camp, upsetting the whole chessboard. Obviously an internal power struggle will then ensue, up to potential civil war but at least Russia can then have public cover to save their asses and move in. It's fucking crazy and messy but it's their best way out for what's coming. Obviously they can choose to save their hide by putting a small resistance but eventually acquiescing to the demands from the Empire, or allowing their replacement to do so (if they don't have the evil spine to do it themselves) while keeping their ill gotten gains safe. Either-or this shit is about to pop.

    Now or never.

    The U.S/UK will get what they want and what they've been working for over 7 years (with or without them). Too fucking important to the Empire for a comedian and his backers to **** it all up in some misplaced sense of self-conservation at the last hour.

    The heat is rising is this lovely drama. February is just around the corner. Tick tock.

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    Post  PapaDragon Sat Jan 29, 2022 5:51 am




    Does anyone know why Biden and Zelensky are being unusually bitchy with each other today?

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    Post  thegopnik Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:33 am

    Christ they keep bragging about the amount of ATGMs they have Rolling Eyes . But the amount of TOS-2 systems and how many FOABs can be carried by tu-160s is important because it would be like setting off nukes but without radiation. Theres a difference between bravery and foolhardiness
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    Post  nomadski Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:20 am


    Of course the American war machine needs a war . It can not survive without a war . But the Russian troops have a problem ! They are in Russia ! Of course the Nazi extremists in control in Kyiv , need a war , to stay in power . But the Donetsk / Lugansk troops have a problem ! They are in Donetsk/ Lugansk !

    The problems in Ukraine are ordinary normal problems . They exist in most countries . And the solutions are ordinary solutions . They exist in most countries . Here , if Ukraine admitted into EU , the extremists will face the same solutions . Even if they escaped the Hammer of socialism . They will face the Sickle of European social democratism ! They will have to learn to speak Russian !


    https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/142/language-policy

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    Post  Isos Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:42 am

    PapaDragon wrote:


    Does anyone know why Biden and Zelensky are being unusually bitchy with each other today?


    B found out Z can't pay back loans.

    Z found out B won't move any of its fingers to actually help him against Russia.

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    Post  GarryB Sat Jan 29, 2022 10:20 am

    Unless what the US actually means is - back us on Russia and we'll give you Taiwan

    You mean like when they asked Russia to put sanctions on Iran and China when they had Russia under enormous sanctions at the time... I doubt it.

    Zelensky more than once last year wanted a meeting with Putin. Putin declined (the guys at the Duran more or less said that it's worthless to talk to the puppet and instead talk to the puppeteer). I think this is Lavrov offering an olive branch to Ukraine. There has been a rather strange events of back and forth between US and Ukraine.

    Zelensky was basically trying to do what Putin did.... Suggest the Donbass region is actually controlled by Putin so there is no point talking to anyone but Putin about the Donbass. The difference of course is that he is wrong. And of course Putin refusing to speak with Zelensky is because the Minsk agreements require Zelensky to talk to the Donbass and other regions to sort this crap out.

    Offering to talk to Zelensky now suggests the Russians are wanting to give Zelensky a way out.... and why not... the problem is the US and HATO and the EU, Russia has only responded to Ukrainian sanctions. The only time Putin has interfered was to ensure Gazprom kept gas flowing through the Ukraine when it was clearly more cost effective to bypass them... that is a nice thing to do for the Ukraine...

    He likely wants to improve relations now but what he might offer and what he can deliver and what Zelensky can or will accept is another matter.

    Western forces in Ukraine probably want a long bloody conflict to start with Russia to damage her economically and politically, but obviously that will completely destroy the Ukraine in the process... perhaps that is what the US wants... split the country up... they love to break up countries...

    But ultimately it isn't Zelensky. He will be ousted and replaced by another poodle of the same.

    But it is like Iraq... they can regime change all they like but when push comes to shove and they have to hold elections the population will often vote for someone they don't prefer to be in power. Obviously anyone they don't like will be removed from the ballot box one way or another, but in the case of the last election they went for Zelensky because he was not hard core anti Russian like poro... Like Biden who turned out not much different from Trump however he is what he is... Politicians... the same everywhere...

    All the help which are in fact loans from the west for weapons won't help. They will pay it during the next 20 years.

    The only group benefiting here is the British and US MIC because eventually the Ukraine or the UK and US governments are going to be paying for these arms... they will not be free.

    The original deal that started all this was the choice between EU loans and Russian and Chinese investments and the anti Russian government of the time chose the Russian investments because they could also get Chinese investments as well... the Russian offer was not conditional on not taking the EU offer... it was the EU offer that was conditional on not taking any offer from China or Russia.


    At the end Russia will have to invade them.

    Not at all. Russia has all the time in the world... their economy is fine and they are stashing money away for a rainy day too.

    The west talks about Russia invading every other month... the Ukrainians have moved their forces to the Donbass border and so Russia has forces on its side of the border ready to deal with any stupidity from Kiev... stupidity from Moscow is rather unlikely for the moment.

    It took a lot less than 500000 troops to actually invade Iraq and topple the government.
    The US had roughly the same amount of troops they claim Russia has right now in Ukraine.
    And Ukraine has a way worse material disadvantage than even the Iraqi army had.

    Iraq has oil and is positioned in an arc that could deliver UAE gas through Iraq and a Syria no longer controlled by Assad to Turkey as competition to Russian gas going to Europe. Ukraine is a dead end shit hole filled with people who either hate Russia or don't care that their government hates Russia.

    The Ukraine is no prize no matter what the price even if it was handed over for free it would cost 500 billion just to fix it... and even then the locals would not be satisfied they did enough.

    Contrary to iraq Russia actually has a big support among ukrainians.

    An exaggeration... even the people in the Donbass haven't said they want to be Russian... they just want to speak Russian.

    Most just wanted better economic conditions when they went on maidan protest and voted for EU pact. Those have no plan to fight russians for US interests.

    They are idiots that thought accepting the EUs deal, which was pathetic, would lead them to joining the EU and getting massive subsidies like Poland gets so they can live the good life without having to work too hard.... you know... the American dream.

    What they ignored was the EU deal was crap... mostly loans and promises, and the demands to get that was to cut themselves off from their primary customer and trading partner... Russia.

    Even now when their economy has turned to shit they blame Russia or now the US... anyone but themselves.

    By the way, most Ukrainians (and one way or the other) will gladly or reluctantly accept Russian rule and peace.
    Only a very small proportion of Ukrainians (the hard-core "Slava Ukrainy" nutjobs) will be willing to fight and die.

    Nice to hear that said, but Russia cannot commit to regime change and occupation of a 30 million plus country based on that premise... the Ukrainians need to help themselves... how about they do what central and south american countries seem to be doing and getting rid of their US puppets themselves.

    What kind of economic misery? Sanctions would hit western europe too! So it's fair

    The cost of fixing Ukraine would be worse than the cost for West Germany regarding East Germany and East Germany is still not right... a different culture.

    Let the US pay that bill... they won fair and square.

    And I bet my ass...all the surveys (support for NATO, will of resitsnace, hate against Russia etc.) in Ukraine are more or less rigged!

    Russia hasn't got the cash to buy these idiots, let alone fix up the trailer park when they are done... occupying the Ukraine does not benefit Russia in any way or form.

    Russia is not the worlds police and is not required to save countries from the west.


    So if Russia is provocated they will hit...very very hard! Ukraine as we know it will be history and more or less absorbed. That's why they mass troops.

    They have massed their troops quite some distance from the border with Ukraine... they are certainly not massed right on the border... because Ukraine has its forces massed on the border with the Donbass in direct violation of the Minsk agreement... but western media ignore that little fact.

    Zelenky and the oligarchs behind him have a small window of opportunity chance to do the right thing and flip back to Russia's camp, upsetting the whole chessboard.

    Even if they did the word from Washington would be Coup number two...

    He would have to talk to the Donbass and other regions and likely accept their autonomy... which would allow him to stand down most of his army which should save quite a bit of money and resources... and together with the money they get for those anti tank missiles from the US and UK they might even come out in profit.

    I can see him releasing his grip on these regions but getting better relations with Russia would destroy support from the west and that is the light at the end of the tunnel for the Ukraine idiots.

    B found out Z can't pay back loans.

    Z found out B won't move any of its fingers to actually help him against Russia.

    Z also probably has so much dirt on B that he thinks he has more power than he actually does... those Georgian snipers from Maiden who killed people on both sides to stir shit up are probably still on retainer if needed... frame Putin of course.

    Get a civil war within Ukraine and Russia and the Donbass can watch on from the sidelines...

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    Post  Arrow Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:30 am

    Eastern Ukraine is also stupid.  It is also a huge area and about 15 million people and some of them also do not want to come to Russia
    .Russia must invest in its own territory, especially in the Far East and Siberia

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    Post  Hole Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:52 pm

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 30 Fkqv5k10
    Empire strikes back! Laughing

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:15 pm

    https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-says-ukraine-russia-crisis-is-a-european-problem-2022-1?amp

    Trump says Ukraine-Russia crisis is a 'European problem' and Russia 'owns Germany' because of Nord Stream 2 pipeline

    Biden is crashing and burning, Trump surging in polls, The Ukrainian gambit failed , once Trump gets in

    That's it for NATO, Ukraine, and EU, Putin will have all demands met, it's just time

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    Post  calripson Sat Jan 29, 2022 4:16 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-says-ukraine-russia-crisis-is-a-european-problem-2022-1?amp

    Trump says Ukraine-Russia crisis is a 'European problem' and Russia 'owns Germany' because of Nord Stream 2 pipeline

    Biden is crashing and burning, Trump surging in polls, The Ukrainian gambit failed , once Trump gets in

    That's it for NATO, Ukraine, and EU, Putin will have all demands met, it's just time

    Trump was president once you recall. He had zero real power as the real government decided to hamstring him from day 1. If he were to run again (a huge mistake for the Republicans), he would be accused of being Putin's secret gay lover.

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    Post  kvs Sat Jan 29, 2022 4:24 pm

    A clarification on the "massing of Russian troops". The US supplied cropped satellite images that tried to paint "massing" but
    was really regular deployment at Russian western military district bases. The story of "massing" is BS. Massing would involve
    500,000+ troops and associated equipment.

    Anything put out by NATzO is a perversion of the truth.

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    Post  VARGR198 Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:19 pm

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #31 - Page 30 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

    Post  ALAMO Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:22 pm

    The whole Russian army - I mean the land forces - are about 300k.
    How you are going to mass 0.5mln with no mobilization? Laughing
    It is staged bullshit from A to Z.
    Check the map.
    3 out of 11 Russian armies were stationed there since ever.
    So where should they be?!?

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