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mnztrThey certainly do not want Ukraine, but they do want a buffer in case the Ukes join NATO or EU or whatever fantasy they have. EU does not want Ukraine other then all the well educated ukrainians they can strip from the country and leave it in even worse shape then before .
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calripson
GarryB
PapaDragon
mnztr
8 posters
Russia vs USA war scenarios
mnztr- Posts : 2013
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GarryB- Posts : 35807
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The EU is not interested in the Ukraine either... just like they are not interested in Turkey... absorbing Turkey is massively more attractive to the EU than absorbing the Ukraine yet it will never happen.
For HATO Turkey and Ukraine are very attractive because of their locations.... just like at the moment India and Australia are also interesting because of their proximity to China, but they are not going to pump any real money into what are essentially forward bases and meat shields for any hostilities with China or Russia...... lots of verbal support but you are on your own if anything actually kicks off and you will get all sorts of mixed signals from all sorts of levels of contact you have with the US and HATO.... something they will deny later on of course...
No... we didn't say HATO wont expand.... to Russia... when talking to the Ukraine... we are behind you... about 10,000km behind you in Washington....
At the drop of a hat they will leave Kabul and facing the Taliban and all your preparation and new toy weapons wont mean shit... the Russians likely already have Javelins supplied via the Ukraine from soldiers more interested in personal gain than getting killed... why should only the politicians at the top make the big money...
For HATO Turkey and Ukraine are very attractive because of their locations.... just like at the moment India and Australia are also interesting because of their proximity to China, but they are not going to pump any real money into what are essentially forward bases and meat shields for any hostilities with China or Russia...... lots of verbal support but you are on your own if anything actually kicks off and you will get all sorts of mixed signals from all sorts of levels of contact you have with the US and HATO.... something they will deny later on of course...
No... we didn't say HATO wont expand.... to Russia... when talking to the Ukraine... we are behind you... about 10,000km behind you in Washington....
At the drop of a hat they will leave Kabul and facing the Taliban and all your preparation and new toy weapons wont mean shit... the Russians likely already have Javelins supplied via the Ukraine from soldiers more interested in personal gain than getting killed... why should only the politicians at the top make the big money...
mnztr- Posts : 2013
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If NATO is willing to lose troops in Afghanistan, Iraq and all the other shitholes like Mali etc then there is no lower limit of value for them to throw lives at. They don't want Ukraine, I agree, it was just an act of vandelism against Russia.
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GarryB- Posts : 35807
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The Ukraine can be a buffer state between Russia and the EU and Russia and HATO... Russia does not need to invade or occupy or even give charity money to fund the Ukraine... it is going to be a buffer state no matter what Russia does.
What Russia needs to do is set up a few drone divisions/groups/units that all work together and on a command will attack a neighbouring country and automatically attack air defences weapons and fuel dumps and HQs and comms centres... they had supersonic anti ship missiles that could coordinate attacks on carrier groups in the early 1980s, the upgrade in electronics is enormous... and such an attack system could be sold to smaller countries and could be applied across any border really.
Basing the systems on shipping containers then a container ship or train or fleet of trucks could mount a surprise attack on anyone from anywhere... but unlike cheap simple store bought drones these could use state of the art sensors and weapons that are effective and coordination that makes defence without the right sort of SAM systems and IADS almost impossible...
What Russia needs to do is set up a few drone divisions/groups/units that all work together and on a command will attack a neighbouring country and automatically attack air defences weapons and fuel dumps and HQs and comms centres... they had supersonic anti ship missiles that could coordinate attacks on carrier groups in the early 1980s, the upgrade in electronics is enormous... and such an attack system could be sold to smaller countries and could be applied across any border really.
Basing the systems on shipping containers then a container ship or train or fleet of trucks could mount a surprise attack on anyone from anywhere... but unlike cheap simple store bought drones these could use state of the art sensors and weapons that are effective and coordination that makes defence without the right sort of SAM systems and IADS almost impossible...
flamming_python- Posts : 8331
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GarryB wrote:The US tends to join conflicts it thinks it can win.... when US politicians talk to pentagon officials about conflict with China or conflict with Russia or both then I think the politicians are going to set records in their back tracking.
The US was in no position to help Georgia but even if they could I really don't think they would, and I would suggest the same regarding the Ukraine and the Baltic states and Poland.
The problem really is that Russia does not actually want the Ukraine or Poland or Baltic state territory... the only time they will send in troops will be like the Crimea or Georgia where in the former case they kept the peace while the locals decided what they wanted, or in Georgia they invaded into Georgia deep enough to silence the artillery and make sure there was no staging areas available for mounting counter attacks and then they withdrew to what they saw and the legitimate boundaries.
There was no urge to occupy hostile populations with the hope of brain washing them into accepting them as their new masters like the US in Afghanistan or Syria or Libya or Iraq.
Russia does not want to conquer more land and more peoples, they want the capacity to destroy threats on their borders and to live in peace without being told what to do or how to behave by the EU or UK or US.... which is obviously unacceptable for the west who thinks it has the right to spread its decadent culture to every corner of the planet.
War with Russia is most likely to be started by the west in desperation when they realise what they are doing is not working and they are eating themselves... but Russia wont be invading or occupying... more likely it will be using its new standoff weapons and strike capability and electronics potential to cut off heads of enemy governments and neuter the armed forces of their enemies by taking out ammo and fuel and equipment.
The West has no choice but to expand
It's a pyramid scheme. As it adds more layers, those new layers need new territories of their own to exploit and get rich off of. The buck stopped with the Ukraine; instead of getting rich off Russia and accepting migrant workers like Poland did from the Ukraine, the Ukraine ended up as the piggy in the middle, neither Russia nor Belarus collapsed and had their assets plundered.
The problem for the West is that not only is Russia offering resistance and providing alternatives for other countries, but crucially China's economy keeps massively expanding and offering to the rest of the world essentially a completely separate economic bloc with a market equivalent to that of the entire West. This means there will soon be nowhere for the West to expand to, at which point its newest layers will start being cannibalized and will begin to get their own ideas about independent policies. We can already see this with Turkey, while some of the US's traditional allies in Asia such as the Philippines, Thailand and now even South Korea, are slowly re-orientating to China.
The West can even fragment and we are seeing the beginnings of something like this too, with the French-German bloc starting to form their own set of economic interests and policies albeit still following the lead of the US & UK on Russia and China.
Long story short the West has no choice but to try and bring China and Russia down whilst they still have an advantage in military reach, propaganda, cultural output and the overall size of the economy against the Eurasian powers. If they fail, the economic center of the world will only continue to gravitate towards Asia, and specifically China.
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ALAMO- Posts : 4496
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flamming_python wrote:
Long story short the West has no choice but to try and bring China and Russia down whilst they still have an advantage in military reach, propaganda, cultural output and the overall size of the economy against the Eurasian powers. If they fail, the economic center of the world will only continue to gravitate towards Asia, and specifically China.
The real issue is, that they don't.
For a while now.
Anglosaxon centric world is long gone. Very long.
Still alive and kicking, but check Africa or Asia. Those are the actual and emerging centers of human activities, and people there give a shit for Anglosaxon order there.
Now they have lost the military edge as well. It is a classical clinch. Yes, the US has 10+ carrier groups, but those are nearly useless against China or Russia. Yes, they can block the sea trade routes with them - but that would hit them double hard. China is expanding its rail connections, and Russkies are building the railways and northern pass like there was no tomorrow for a reason.
At the end of the route, it would be the Anglosaxon "empire" cut off the supply lines, with Australia well into China's sphere of contact. The UK will stay a shithole on the edge of Europe, in need to lick its dick for electricity and milk, as it is today. While dreaming that its long gone past is a not a distant future.
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GarryB- Posts : 35807
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Long story short the West has no choice but to try and bring China and Russia down whilst they still have an advantage in military reach, propaganda, cultural output and the overall size of the economy against the Eurasian powers. If they fail, the economic center of the world will only continue to gravitate towards Asia, and specifically China.
That ship has sailed though... perhaps in the late 1990s they could have destroyed Russia, but in both cases they have left it too late and drawn it out too far.
If you took all the sanctions they have imposed over the last 20 years and imposed them all at once would be your best bet... having to deal with everything at once would mean they could fix some of their problems but certainly not all of them so they would always have huge gaps that they couldn't afford to fill and remain empty creating a weakness but that time has past.
I actually suspect the reverse is not true... there will be areas the US now has gaps that it can't fill because everything has been outsourced to increase profits slightly.
flamming_python- Posts : 8331
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They may well have left it too late
You can see that evidenced by their schizophrenic policies and internal political struggles. They also assumed that they can take on both Russia and China at the same time, but Trump tried a different approach, for which he was labelled a Russian agent - only for Biden his replacement, to essentially try the same thing and go for the strategy of trying to pry Russia away from China.
In terms of military reach - it's not a threat to Russia and China, or their logistics and transport links to other countries for the most part - but it does allow Washington coercion over most of the rest of the world. This is an advantage they have.
You can see that evidenced by their schizophrenic policies and internal political struggles. They also assumed that they can take on both Russia and China at the same time, but Trump tried a different approach, for which he was labelled a Russian agent - only for Biden his replacement, to essentially try the same thing and go for the strategy of trying to pry Russia away from China.
In terms of military reach - it's not a threat to Russia and China, or their logistics and transport links to other countries for the most part - but it does allow Washington coercion over most of the rest of the world. This is an advantage they have.
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GarryB- Posts : 35807
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Another aspect is fear.... not the fear of threats, but the fear of propaganda... for decades now the west has been seen as the centre of the human universe... the first world, but if you take that away then what?
With the west in place there is a clear path to follow... better relations to the US and prosperity... though the latter does not materialise most of the time.
You see it when a pro west person gets frustrated at the complaints of how the US and west does things... do you think you will be better off if Russia or China are in charge?
Of course that shows their mentality... they complain that Russia is not enough like them to do as they are told, and their fears of Russia and China getting into their position is that they might start treating the west and the US the way the west and the US treat everyone else.
The irony is that Russia and China don't want to take the role of the US as world police and ethics and morals centre of the human race.
They want the US and the west to mind its own business.
When the US or Australian or EU officials go to China they talk about Taiwan and Tibet and the Uirgers or whatever they are called... when was the last time a Chinese official went to the EU or the US or Australia and complained about the treatment of Migrants, or ethnic groups with complaints about their lands being stolen or groups of people wanting independence...
They don't because that would not be polite.
In other words the US and EU and Aussie diplomats are rude bastards.
With the west in place there is a clear path to follow... better relations to the US and prosperity... though the latter does not materialise most of the time.
You see it when a pro west person gets frustrated at the complaints of how the US and west does things... do you think you will be better off if Russia or China are in charge?
Of course that shows their mentality... they complain that Russia is not enough like them to do as they are told, and their fears of Russia and China getting into their position is that they might start treating the west and the US the way the west and the US treat everyone else.
The irony is that Russia and China don't want to take the role of the US as world police and ethics and morals centre of the human race.
They want the US and the west to mind its own business.
When the US or Australian or EU officials go to China they talk about Taiwan and Tibet and the Uirgers or whatever they are called... when was the last time a Chinese official went to the EU or the US or Australia and complained about the treatment of Migrants, or ethnic groups with complaints about their lands being stolen or groups of people wanting independence...
They don't because that would not be polite.
In other words the US and EU and Aussie diplomats are rude bastards.
owais.usmani- Posts : 1605
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PapaDragon wrote:
No they won't which is why they will not be touching Russia
Mainlands are off limits
GarryB- Posts : 35807
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The irony is that with all their electronic defensive systems those bombers would be shot down 200km inside eastern european airspace if the attack was considered to be genuine.
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