Syrian War: News #23

caveat emptor wrote:Oh, i completely agree. Keep Latakia and region around it and ditch everything else. As i said, Assad and Iranians fucked this up.

Based on their experiences with Ukraine I don't think the Russians will make a Minsk 3 if they decide to build up forces to strike the Russians later in Latakia. Just let them bomb away.

Very good analysis and explanation of importance of Khmeimim and Tartus for Russian aspirations in ME and Africa.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/146228

About some unpleasant consequences of what is happening in Syria, in case of further development of unpleasant trends (let's call it that):

1. With the loss of Hama and further progress towards Homs, a threat will be created to the bases of the Russian Armed Forces in Khmeimim and Tartus. It is important to understand that they play an important role in Russia's Middle East and African strategy. Their loss will not only collapse the position of the Russian Federation in the Middle East and reduce the fleet's ability to be present in the Eastern Mediterranean, but also undermine the logistics of African events, which largely rely on the Khmeimim airbase, through which, among other things, contingents are supplied in a number of countries. Those who broadcast why we need these bases simply do not understand what they are talking about. Their loss will be a reset of our strategy. It is important to understand that our campaign in Syria has provided us with new economic and political opportunities, which we have been actively using since the start of our military operation in order to torpedo the West's strategy of our diplomatic and economic isolation.
What is happening in Syria poses a threat to this strategy, so what is happening is our business. Another question is how to reverse these trends.

2. Next. The expansion of the militant control zone in Syria and the possible threat to the very structure of Assad's Syria is a serious blow to Iran and its strategic project of the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon land bridge, against which the United States and Israel are fighting. Iran's involvement in full-fledged ground operations in Syria to hold the Assad government and the land corridor can be used to further overexert Iran's forces and attempts to undermine its influence in Lebanon and Iraq.

3. At the same time, given the employment of Russia in Ukraine and Iran in Syria and Iraq, it is very likely that an intensification of the war in Transcaucasia is being prepared for the next couple of months, with the aim of dismembering Armenia and transferring Southern Armenia under the control of Azerbaijan/Turkey. Russia is busy, and Iran, which threatened to invade Azerbaijan in an attempt to capture southern Armenia, is busy. Pashinyan squeezes out Russian border guards and gets rid of the CSTO. In the event of a military conflict, there will be no one to help Armenia. As a result, Azerbaijan will receive another region and a direct connection to Nakhichevan, and Turkey will receive a corridor to Baku and the Caspian Sea. The events in Georgia may be part of the preparations for the upcoming partition of Armenia, so that by the time the events begin, a completely anti-Russian government sits in Tbilisi and Armenia is completely isolated.

Given the upcoming change of administration in the United States and the obvious time constraints of the Biden administration, now all these "projects" will be rapidly accelerated. Syria is just one of the planks here.

There is a lot of fake news, rumours and all kinds of unconfirmed information.
Making an analysis based on this does not seem very serious.
We must not play into the hands of terrorist groups supported by the West and Zionism.

Aleppo crisis: what’s going on in Syria?

The conflict in Syria has returned to the frontpages after years of media obliviousness due to a lightning jihadist offensive on the strategic city of Aleppo.

What happened there?

Militants from al-Qaeda-linked terrorist group Tahrir al-Sham* and the so-called ‘Syrian National Army’ began an offensive toward Aleppo on November 27.

The jihadists were able to stage their forces for the operation in Idlib – a terrorist-controlled province of northwestern Syria outside government control since 2015.

Militants advanced through villages west of Aleppo, capturing key settlements and reportedly cutting the M5 motorway linking Aleppo to Damascus.

The Syrian army launched air and artillery strikes in Idlib and Aleppo provinces, including the city of Idlib and towns like Ariha and Sarmada. Russian jets targeted terrorist positions (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/38229) in Atarib, Darat Izza, and Mare, while Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces joined the defense of Aleppo.

Stikes reportedly killed two senior jihadist commanders.

Iran announced that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Brig. Gen Kioumars Pourhashemi, an advisor to Syrian forces, had been killed on the first day of the terrorists’ assault.

Terrorist forces penetrated defenses in Aleppo proper on Friday, carrying out suicide bombing attacks, clashing with defenders, and reportedly occupying the city’s world-famous Citadel Saturday morning.

Syrian forces began a counterattack on Friday. The army reported the destruction of dozens of armored vehicles and the liquidation of hundreds of fighters in Idlib and Aleppo, including what it said were foreign mercs.

In a statement Saturday, the Syrian army acknowledged the advance of terrorists (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/38239) into “many areas of the city of Aleppo,” but said fighting was continuing to prevent them from gaining a foothold.

The army said “dozens” of Syrian servicemen had been killed or injured in the course of defensive operations against “thousands of foreign terrorists” armed with “heavy weapons and a large number of drones.”

Why here, why now?

The terrorist offensive on Aleppo began the same day the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon entered into force, although the jihadists claim it was tied to recent Syrian strikes targeting terrorist commanders in Idlib – where a shaky Russia and Turkiye-mediated ceasefire had been in place since 2020.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi assured his Syrian counterpart Bassam al-Sabbagh Friday that Iran would continue to support Damascus’ fight against the jihadists.

Araghchi characterized the resurgence of terrorism in northern Syria as a US-Israeli plot aimed at destabilizing West Asia (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/38197) after the IDF “failures” confronting Hezbollah in Lebanon. Veteran international affairs observer Seyed Mohammad Marandi echoed this sentiment in an interview with Sputnik.

The terrorist advance on Aleppo puts additional pressure on the Syrian government as it combats a long-term foreign-backed jihadist proxy war aimed at overthrowing President Assad, illegal US bases on Syrian soil in the country’s east and south, and a decades-old conflict with Israel.

https://t.me/geopolitics_live/38260

— / BREAKING: Reinforcements of the Syrian Arab Army arrive in the southern outskirt of Hama

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13134

Middle East Spectator, [30/11/2024 15:38]
— / NEW: A source in Hama tells us that the majority of the city has not fallen to HTS, the SAA is sending in reinforcements, but HTS is present in the North-East of the city in Jebrin and Al-Sawaeq neighbourhood (green circle)

@Middle_Easr_Spectator

Middle East Spectator, [30/11/2024 15:42]
The HTS-affiliated media outlets are circulating videos of their presence in very limited areas in the outskirts of Hama, in order to falsely claim that they have captured the entire city.

@Maradona

Fake news aside, such simplistic and lazy "analysis" where for every bad thing that happens, easiest thing is to blame it on the West and Zionism.
Syrians in 2011 didn't start all this shit, because they had great life. Also, current collapse very likely stems from omnipresent economical crisis in Syrian government controlled territories and unwillingness to change anything in the system that already brought situation to where it is. Corruption, nepotism, partocracy and religious affiliation ruled the society and nothing has changed since. But, yeah blame it all on US, Israel and Turkey and whoever. It comes without saying that your enemies will work against you.
Also, some knowledge of historical background is in order. Historically very strong support for Muslim brotherhood among majority Sunni population and something that happened in Hama in 1982.

— CLARIFICATION: It seems there is no coup, at least for now, in Damascus, and this was a lie spread by the terrorists

The Syrian Arab Army, specifically the 4th Division under the command of Maher al-Assad, is combing the streets and engaging in firefights with local rebel sleeper cells.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— / WATCH: Video from the center of Hama, Syrian Arab Army units, including tanks and AFVs, are present throughout the entire city, and HTS has not entered

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13140

| IMPORTANT - Israel’s Channel 11 did an interview with one of the anti-Assad militants, someone part of the operations room in the offensive against Aleppo.

The anti-Assad militant said, in a message to Israelis:

“Dear Israeli people, don’t worry, we are keeping an eye on Iran and Hezbollah. We will deal with them.”

Kaisos, the Channel 11 journalist, then says that the unfolding situation in Syria has “opportunities” for Israel.

https://x.com/AryJeay/status/1862963710777794776

— Video from northern Hama, the neighbourhood of Arbaeen, confirms the city is still fully in SAA hands

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13141

— / NEW: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad held a phone call with Mohammed Bin Zayed, the ruler of the UAE

Mohammed Bin Zayed, surprisingly, states that the UAE stands with Syria, and that it supports Syria's sovereignty and right to defend against terrorist movements.

@Middle_East_Spectator

I think many Arab leaders are realizing that they prefer Assad over the uncertainty that could come after him.

Especially in recent years, the Gulf states and Arab states in general have tried to mend ties with Assad. I think they had finally accepted the reality of an Assad-led Syria, so they have little appetite for regime change right now, except maybe Qatar.

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13145

- Contrary to the reports stating HTS captured the city of Hama, The Paratroopers of the "25th Special Forces" Division of the SAA were deployed in 'Qamhana', north of Hama.

The city is secured, there are no clashes.

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13146

— // NEW: HTS-linked outlets now say they never entered Hama, and that the 'Syrian regime' has brought thousands of reinforcements, including 'Iranian-backed Shia fighters' to defend the city

@Middle_East_Spectator

— WATCH: Soldiers of the Syrian Arab Army have gathered in the center of Hama, preparing a defense of the city.

They are heard chanting: 'With our souls, with our blood, we sacrifice for you O' Bashar!'



https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13148

— / NEW: Iranian advisors are present in Hama, and are jointly planning with Syrian commanders to organize a defense of the city

@Middle_East_Spectator

— NEW: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is now holding an important meeting with the leaders of the military and security institutions in Damascus, in preparation for the launching of defensive operations to protect the Syrian Arab Republic

@Middle_East_Spectatot

— Visual confirmation: The Syrian Arab Army has full control of the town of Qomhane, North of Hama, and fire control over the M5

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13156

The Iranian ambassador to Syria said that several European and other countries were behind the terrorist attack on Syria.
The attack is Syria's revenge for its support for the Axis of Resistance in its confrontation with Israel.
Iran will support Syria and the government of Bashar al-Assad.

The Syrian command, on the wave of successfully maintaining control over Hama, has already announced that it has repelled the militants’ offensive and announced preparations for a counteroffensive.
Apparently, they'll wait for the Iranian proxies and try to seize the initiative. If some other crap doesn't happen before that.

And some more good news.
The Russian Aerospace Forces are bombing the Turkish occupation zone, among other places, and there have been flights to Al-Bab.
Another high-ranking HTS field commander was killed in strikes in Idlib.

@Slavyangrad

The Russian Aerospace Forces are currently raining something like hell on terrorist targets in Aleppo and Idlib. It's nice to see whining on jihadist channels in contrast to today's gloating.

@Slavyangrad

Taliban denied congratulating the terrorist attack on Aleppo

"Zabihullah Mujahid", the spokesman of the Taliban, stated that the news published about congratulations for the attack of the Al-Nusra Front terrorist group on the Syrian city of Aleppo are baseless.

@ResistanceTrench

Syrian Ministry of Defense: The operation to confront the terrorist attack is proceeding with full success and determination, and soon a counterattack will be launched to reclaim and liberate all areas.

@ResistanceTrench

Syrian “rebels” delivered a message to the “tyrants” of Hamas and other political parties in Palestine.

“You are nothing to us, we will crush you all when or great march gets to you.” Said the terrorist.

https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/15605

ResistanceTrench mirror, [30/11/2024 17:53]
Airstrike on sleeping quarters of terrorists in north of Syria near Turkey border

ResistanceTrench mirror, [30/11/2024 17:56]
Russia will deliver a huge weapons package to Syria and it's expected to arrive within 48 hours.

@ResistanceTrench