Su-24 shouldnt be decomissioned.
There are too few Su-34s and too many of them have been lost, so the Su-24s should pick up the slack. They should get new EW equipment and be made to launch drel, grom, X-38, LMUR, etc salvos. They should also get FLIR targeting pods that have a range of 40+km.
The Su-24 cannot be decommissioned, especially if you want to raise more bomber regiments you have to use the Su-24 that have been released with the arrival of the Su-34
Although I'm not a fan of combat aviation and aviation in general, because I think it's overrated, I also follow what's going on.
I wouldn't bet on it that these are only "cosmetic" changes because 12 years ago we knew that Russia was producing the Su-27SM3, Su-30M2 for its air force, as well as having contracts for the Su-34 and Su -35S. Later, the Su-30SM also appeared. Later, a contract also appeared for an additional squadron of MiG-29SMT aircraft. Something new always appears over time.
There will certainly be changes in the number of fighters, that is, a certain increase in the number of combat aircraft will certainly follow.
And the idiots (I don't mean you) who believe that Russia doesn't have the money to have more than 150 Su-57s in its air force are fucking idiots. Well, fucking Finland has an order for over 60 F-35s. And if such an order is made by a country with a smaller population than St. Petersburg, then it is clear that Russia will order many more Su-57 aircraft.
Russia fulfilled all contracts for the delivery of fighter planes on time. Things went a little rough with Il-76MD 90A transport plans, but that is now being corrected for the better. We will see if KNAAZ will manage to deliver more than 70 Su-57 aircraft by December 31, 2027. KNAAZ must deliver an average of 13 to 14 of these aircraft each year in the next 5 years to fulfill the contract.
I believe that the Russians will manage to deliver the contracted aircraft, and for the GPV-2033, rearmament will certainly follow, which will go much faster. I don't think it's impossible for the Russians to have 300 or 400 Su-57s in total, as well as 300+ Su-75s. The Su-57 is the future of the Russian Air Force and there is no doubt that the number of these aircraft will grow. The story about the "expensiveness" of those plans is idiocy. If the West is selling its 5th generation aircraft at inflated and unrealistic prices it does not mean that the Russians are doing the same, as I am sure the Chinese are not.
The moment that the Su-57 reaches its full combat potential, then all aircraft derived from the Su-27 platform will be withdrawn from production lines. And the Western saying that the Russians "don't have" money or "don't have" the capacity is worn out.
well, the pace of purchases also depends on the internal political situation in Russia
Maybe 2010 was not the time for large-scale purchases when there are economic problems or when pensions are low and you can't justify spending on weapons
However, now defense spending has increased by 50%, which is also a good Keynesian investment program that will relaunch the entire economy.
As for the planes, many are purchases to cover the gap or directly political purchases to give an order to an inactive factory
I think that the inventory of the Air Force will definitely be reduced to fewer models, and the Su-57 will be bought for at least 6 regiments, we'll see what happens with the MiG-31 because I don't see anything clear that the mythological Star Wars MiG-41 be developed
It is likely that in the end all VKS fighter regiments will take Su-57+Su-35 with regiments of 3 squadrons
According to the Ministry of Defense announcements, each combined arms army would have attached a mixed aviation division and a helicopter brigade.
Each mixed aviation division will have at least one figther regiment and a bomber regiment
There are 12 combined arms armies, although some would not have this, for example in Transbaikal there are two "armies" but only one fighter regiment in Domna, the same is true in the North Caucasus with two armies and only one figther regiment in Krymsk
6 new brigades of helicopters were announced (that is, to increase 6 regiments to brigade by adding one transport squadron), which effectively gives 10 brigades and the same with 10 mixed aviation divisions, so 10 bomber regiments and 12 fighter regiments would be necessary (the division of Ural-Siberia has 2 MiG-31 regiments, in addition to the one that will be formed in Yelizovo without affiliation to any mixed division)
Therefore you can calculate that you need 10 Su-34 regiments with 3 squadrons , so 36 planes each regiment, plus about 30 airplanes for training (1 for each squadron). There would be +390 aircraft with some more for testing etc... about 400
The 12 fighter regiments plus one training regiment would have 312 Su-57 + 156 Su-35 + 30 Su-30SM at first wiew, to which must be added the planes from Kubinka Astrakhan and Akhtubinsk at least
In the Navy the each fleet have a Naval Assault Regiment instead of a bomber regiment, with Su-30SM instead of the Su-34
In the case of fighters, the Navy will have Su-75 instead of Su-57, the question is whether they will have 2 squadrons or 3, and in which regiments would the Su-35 go if the navy ever has them