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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    PapaDragon
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 35 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  PapaDragon Thu Dec 16, 2021 4:12 am

    Krepost wrote:
    ALAMO wrote:What for? dunno
    Sentimental? scratch
    What is there, worth struggling with?

    Land.
    There is none left on the planet that does not belong to someone.
    Land means:
    - Agriculture
    - Natural resources (minerals, fuels, water etc)
    - Place to build factories and warehouses
    - Place to build homes for people who will multiply and produce more workers, engineers, soldiers, scientists, athletes etc
    - Place for parks and recreation
    - Place to have wild nature
    etc.

    They don't Make more land anymore you know.

    They don't

    And Russia has plenty of it already

    404 is only relevant as buffer zone now, specific conditions in it are irrelevant for it's utility




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    Post  GarryB Thu Dec 16, 2021 6:53 am

    How they managed to get a $125bln a year from a $15bln export (peaking to $20) would remain the mystery next to the inside of a black hole

    Exports just means products transferred and paid for... Russia was investing in all sorts of things that were not exported... their investments in Antonov and Motor Sich including engines paid for that were not received.... how many billions did Russian invest in the An-70 with no return and no exports to speak of?

    The stuff they were buying from the Ukraine was not stuff they couldn't make themselves, but the traditionally bought these things from Ukraine and it would have turned the Ukraine against them much sooner if they stopped buying such things earlier on.

    The new engines and equipment they are making for themselves now can be state of the art new upgrades made on state of the art new tooling and new materials of their own design that work better and more efficiently and don't need to be paid for in US dollars.

    They don't Make more land anymore you know.

    Russia has enormous amounts of land it can exploit and develop... it has no reason to seize any more, certainly not land currently occupied by rabid anti Russian nutters.

    The land of the Ukraine and for that matter the EU and UK represent potential threats rather than potential partnerships.... what they need is a good number of medium and intermediate range nuclear weapons to erradicate any threat coming from those directions and then they can focus on investing and developing the land they have and making the situation in their own country better and safer and more comfortable.

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    Post  Hole Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:37 pm

    Well, you can´t (russian politicians) talk about the Russian World but let the people that are closest to you be under control of some western backed Nazi thugs. Odessa or Nikolayev are more russian then Kasan or Khabarovsk.

    In the end it would be much cheaper, too. Because Russia would be back in control of the territory. That was the main problem of the peroid between 1991 and today. Russia still spend Billions in keeping these "countries" (including the central-asian "stans" and parts of the southern caucasus) afloat. Cheap energy. Investments in industry. Security guarantees. Cheap weapons (or even for free). But anytime some western country could come in, bribe a few politicians and build a military base or something else to anger Russia. And Russia couldn´t do anything against it because the "country" was independent. But Russia can´t stop the help either because this would create even more costs (refugees, even more wars, nuclear meltdowns).

    Bring them back under control and the money will be spend inside Russia again.

    Some people here keep complaining that the russian economy isn´t growing strong enough or that the central bank keeps the interest rates to high. Huge investments in the infrastucture of the new (rather old) regions would force the central bank to bring down the rates and that´s the way (inversting into infrastructure) China grew so rapidly after 2008. Pumping money into roads and railways and harbors will pay off later. As long as you control the region and don´t let some western stooge take it over.

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    Post  LMFS Thu Dec 16, 2021 1:08 pm

    It makes historical sense to integrate the Ukrainian regions with clear Russian roots in the RF, but doing it today would be a massive problem. They need to undergo a normalisation process, the effects of one century of acculturation are too big and it would still need to be seen if these regions will naturally revert to being and feeling essentially Russian. Forcing an integration based on the same principles used in the nineties and early XXI century would mean going back to a very uneconomical buying of "loyalty" which is today completely unnecessary.

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    Post  Krepost Thu Dec 16, 2021 1:39 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Krepost wrote:
    ALAMO wrote:What for? dunno
    Sentimental? scratch
    What is there, worth struggling with?

    Land.
    There is none left on the planet that does not belong to someone.
    Land means:
    - Agriculture
    - Natural resources (minerals, fuels, water etc)
    - Place to build factories and warehouses
    - Place to build homes for people who will multiply and produce more workers, engineers, soldiers, scientists, athletes etc
    - Place for parks and recreation
    - Place to have wild nature
    etc.

    They don't Make more land anymore you know.

    They don't

    And Russia has plenty of it already

    404 is only relevant as buffer zone now, specific conditions in it are irrelevant for it's utility





    You guys are forgetting that that there are still millions of pro-Russia people in Ukraine. Mostly in the South and East (Kharkov, Odessa, etc.).
    We can not throw them under the bus and/or forget about them.
    "Let them move to Russia" is not doable.
    I want both the land and the people.
    Let the Bandera-fans move to Galicia or further West.

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    Post  ALAMO Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:56 pm

    There are fewer and fewer of them, and considering the overall situation for the last several years, applied citizenship change laws etc, most of those who were interested - could migrate any moment. Or have done that already.
    In Novorussia, the number of Russian passports given to the population was merely a 500k in Spring of this year - and we don't have any more adequate data rather than a wish to double that number by the years' end.
    If we consider the region as most Russia supportive one, and inhabited by +/- 4 mln undisputed citizens - that makes a barely 25% in the most optimistic scenario.
    If we push the trigger on any side, let's say that there are more than 4mln (they state that 6), or the settled goal of 1 mln was not achieved ...
    Not impressive after 2 years ...
    No matter how heartless that might sound, the biggest pro-Russian sentiment exists among the older generation, that presents no economical asset other than some irrelevant purchase power, being pensioners.

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 35 Empty Exactly Correct

    Post  calripson Thu Dec 16, 2021 6:26 pm

    ALAMO wrote:There are fewer and fewer of them, and considering the overall situation for the last several years, applied citizenship change laws etc, most of those who were interested - could migrate any moment. Or have done that already.
    In Novorussia, the number of Russian passports given to the population was merely a 500k in Spring of this year - and we don't have any more adequate data rather than a wish to double that number by the years' end.
    If we consider the region as most Russia supportive one, and inhabited by +/- 4 mln undisputed citizens - that makes a barely 25% in the most optimistic scenario.
    If we push the trigger on any side, let's say that there are more than 4mln (they state that 6), or the settled goal of 1 mln was not achieved ...
    Not impressive after 2 years ...
    No matter how heartless that might sound, the biggest pro-Russian sentiment exists among the older generation, that presents no economical asset other than some irrelevant purchase power, being pensioners.

    What is this delusion that people under 35 in Kherson or Odessa want to join Russia? They don't. They do not even have a memory of the USSR. They view themselves as Ukrainian - not the same frothing at the mouth Ukrainians as in Kiev or Lvov, but Ukrainian. In 1991 it would have made sense. Today, that ship has long since sailed.

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    Post  kvs Thu Dec 16, 2021 7:19 pm

    That is why Russia does not need to set up a daycare for these tantrum babies. They can have their precious "Ukr" identity and
    eventually learn how to "balakuvate na move". And keep dreaming about the endless gravy train of easy living as part of the EU, always
    deferred a few years down the line.

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    Post  par far Thu Dec 16, 2021 7:35 pm


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    Post  kvs Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:40 pm

    Whatever failings Mercouris has in his analysis, he is light years ahead any mainstream western analyst. The western information space
    is a bubble created by the fake stream media and the official talking heads. So called independent analysts based in universities and
    think tanks all have to sing from the same choir sheet if they want to keep their jobs. The only way to see that this is a bubble of
    misinformation is to have independent information sources such as family in Russia, personal experience there, and alternative sources
    being actively suppressed on social media who are also in this direct contact category.

    The western degeneration into a woke totalitarian toilet is just a phase transition from another totalitarian bubble that existed before.
    But the previous one was at least more generous in affording the western citizenry some degree of freedom. Now you will be forced
    to inject what is called a vaccine into your system every few months if you do not want to be sent to a concentration camp. Austria
    and Greece are leading the way together with Australia. It is a matter of time before this is universal in the self-anointed "free world".

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    Post  flamming_python Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:07 pm

    One of the articles on the previous pages briefly makes the comparison between Zelensky, and Napoleon III

    I think that's an excellent observation, there couldn't be a more appropriate historical figure. If things in the Ukraine keep up the way they are, it won't be long before Zelensky too is down to wandering the streets and fields, reflecting on his utter failures as a leader while desperately hoping that a bullet from a disgruntled Ukronazi will put him out of his misery, so that he won't have to live out the shame of his incompetence before his people.

    Better to die as a martyr. Unfortunately Zelensky at the moment is hoping to make a martyr not only out of himself, but his whole army too, by persisting in building up forces on the contact line.

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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:03 am

    calripson wrote:
    kvs wrote:Link

    All the discussion about how little Ukraine cost Russia is so much BS.   It was a freaking enormous leech from the Soviet period.

    The narrative put out by Bzezhinsky and similar about how Russia cannot be great without Ukria is an intellectually insulting joke.


    Ukraine is next to Poland, so clearly that was the obsession of a member of the lower Polish nobility like Zbigniew.


    Lower nobility are millions of people in Poland.

    You think they all have the same opinion like Brzezinski?


    http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html


    Are you deranged?
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    Post  ATLASCUB Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:56 am

    NATO promises to keep expanding, despite Russian objections

    https://www.rt.com/russia/543418-stoltenberg-nato-continue-expansion/

    “NATO countries are already training Ukrainian troops and consulting with them,” he explained. “They are conducting joint exercises and providing military supplies and technology. The alliance’s support for Ukraine is not a threat to Russia.”

    Stoltenberg added that a possible partnership with Ukraine would be the chief item on the agenda at the upcoming NATO summit in Madrid in June 2022. On the subject of whether the bloc would keep growing, he said, “NATO is continuing the process of expansion. We already took Montenegro and North Macedonia, regardless of Russia’s protests.” He promised that NATO would not look to compromise with Moscow, which has demanded that the bloc rethink a promise it made in 2008 to induct Ukraine and Georgia “in time.”

    US could name Russia ‘state sponsor of terrorism’

    https://www.rt.com/russia/543409-us-senators-blame-terrorism/

    Eight Republican party legislators submitted the bill on Wednesday, naming it the GUARD Act, which stands for Guaranteeing Ukraine’s Autonomy by Reinforcing its Defense. The proposed legislation includes a range of measures designed to support Kiev, including authorizing $450 million in foreign military financing in 2022 and promising to designate Russia as a “state sponsor of terrorism” in the event of perceived aggression.

    According to John Barrasso (R-Wyoming), one of the lawmakers introducing the bill, Russian President Vladimir Putin “is attempting to dominate and control Ukraine.” The senator said, “we cannot let this bold and dangerous behavior go unchecked. The United States and our allies must do more to deter Russia by increasing the costs of its aggression.”
    Austria comments on use of Nord Stream 2 to pressure Russia READ MORE: Austria comments on use of Nord Stream 2 to pressure Russia

    The bill also includes additional sanctions against Nord Stream 2, the newly constructed pipeline that will bring Russian gas to Europe through the Baltic Sea. Ukraine, which stands to lose billions of dollars in gas transit fees, has described the project as a security threat. But despite strenuous objections from Kiev and Washington, European leaders have indicated that the pipeline will begin operations as soon as it clears bureaucratic obstacles.

    Germany reveals long delay for Russian gas pipeline certification

    https://www.rt.com/russia/543402-nord-stream-not-certified/

    The German Federal Network Agency, the Bundesnetzagentur, will not make a decision on the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline for at least another six months, the head of the governmental body revealed on Thursday.

    The certification of the pipeline, which should have been completed in January 2022, was suspended in mid-November after the Bonn-based regulator insisted that Nord Stream 2 AG create a German subsidiary. The German Energy Ministry described the suspension as a regulatory issue and an interim step.

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 35 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  kvs Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:52 am

    NATzO can thump its chest all it wants.   Russia is laying down the law and any offensive missile installations in Ukraine and likely in the Baltics as well
    will get an active counter deployment of hypersonic nuclear missiles aimed at every U-ropean state.   Russia does not need to bomb the
    installations like Israel bombs its neighbours.   It just needs hard offensive asset deployment.   The retards in Washington and Bruxelles
    think that grabbing real estate gives them more security.  

    Russia has already deployed Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad.  Next step is to replace them with nuclear tipped hypersonic upgrades.

    But another effective approach is to never sell gas on the spot futures market.   U-rope is digging its own grave with the pathetic
    attempt to coerce Gazprom to sell on the spot market.   And assorted retards are running around claiming that green energy will
    replace Gazprom soon.  They must mean 20 years from now at the earliest.   It will be fun to watch these haters as they get less
    and less natural gas from Russia as the long term contracts expire and the unelected clowns in Bruxelles dictate to the EU prison
    of nations to not renew any long term contract.   Russia is clearly planning for this scenario as it is rapidly expanding its LNG export
    capacity.   It will have the equivalent of its export volume to the EU in LNG form by 2030.   That LNG will not be trapped in the EU
    market, it will be sailing the high seas to the highest bidder.    The next nine years are going to be really rough for NATzO EU-tards.

    NATzO is hoping and praying that Russia takes the bait and starts some conflict with the empty cranium zombies in Ukraine and
    elsewhere.   This ain't gonna happen and NATzO is too chicken shit to attack Russia directly.

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:07 am

    ATLASCUB wrote:NATO promises to keep expanding, despite Russian objections

    https://www.rt.com/russia/543418-stoltenberg-nato-continue-expansion/

    “NATO countries are already training Ukrainian troops and consulting with them,” he explained. “They are conducting joint exercises and providing military supplies and technology. The alliance’s support for Ukraine is not a threat to Russia.”

    Stoltenberg added that a possible partnership with Ukraine would be the chief item on the agenda at the upcoming NATO summit in Madrid in June 2022. On the subject of whether the bloc would keep growing, he said, “NATO is continuing the process of expansion. We already took Montenegro and North Macedonia, regardless of Russia’s protests.” He promised that NATO would not look to compromise with Moscow, which has demanded that the bloc rethink a promise it made in 2008 to induct Ukraine and Georgia “in time.”

    US could name Russia ‘state sponsor of terrorism’

    https://www.rt.com/russia/543409-us-senators-blame-terrorism/

    Eight Republican party legislators submitted the bill on Wednesday, naming it the GUARD Act, which stands for Guaranteeing Ukraine’s Autonomy by Reinforcing its Defense. The proposed legislation includes a range of measures designed to support Kiev, including authorizing $450 million in foreign military financing in 2022 and promising to designate Russia as a “state sponsor of terrorism” in the event of perceived aggression.

    According to John Barrasso (R-Wyoming), one of the lawmakers introducing the bill, Russian President Vladimir Putin “is attempting to dominate and control Ukraine.” The senator said, “we cannot let this bold and dangerous behavior go unchecked. The United States and our allies must do more to deter Russia by increasing the costs of its aggression.”
    Austria comments on use of Nord Stream 2 to pressure Russia READ MORE: Austria comments on use of Nord Stream 2 to pressure Russia

    The bill also includes additional sanctions against Nord Stream 2, the newly constructed pipeline that will bring Russian gas to Europe through the Baltic Sea. Ukraine, which stands to lose billions of dollars in gas transit fees, has described the project as a security threat. But despite strenuous objections from Kiev and Washington, European leaders have indicated that the pipeline will begin operations as soon as it clears bureaucratic obstacles.

    Germany reveals long delay for Russian gas pipeline certification

    https://www.rt.com/russia/543402-nord-stream-not-certified/

    The German Federal Network Agency, the Bundesnetzagentur, will not make a decision on the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline for at least another six months, the head of the governmental body revealed on Thursday.

    The certification of the pipeline, which should have been completed in January 2022, was suspended in mid-November after the Bonn-based regulator insisted that Nord Stream 2 AG create a German subsidiary. The German Energy Ministry described the suspension as a regulatory issue and an interim step.


    They don't know what to do, do they

    They're lost

    Hence the more hysterical and ridiculous the decisions

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    Post  GarryB Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:57 am

    Forcing an integration based on the same principles used in the nineties and early XXI century would mean going back to a very uneconomical buying of "loyalty" which is today completely unnecessary.

    It is not loyalty that is paid for, because real loyalty can't be bought and sold... these people who are rejecting Russia think they can get a better deal with the US and the EU... so how is that working out for them?

    An ex girlfriend that dumps you for someone richer is not someone I would go crawling back on my hands an knees for... first of all she should be doing the crawling, because she did the betraying.

    You guys are forgetting that that there are still millions of pro-Russia people in Ukraine.

    You say that, but how many actually did anything in support of Russia or Russian interests?

    We can not throw them under the bus and/or forget about them.

    Nothing to do with throwing anyone under any buses... Russia can verbally support them on the quiet as long as no one tells them not to support them... like they did.

    "Let them move to Russia" is not doable.

    It is not Russian land any more because the majority of the people on the land identify as Ukrainian... just the same as the land in Belarus and the Baltic states are no longer Russian now either. Crimea remains Russian purely because that is the will of the people in the Crimea.

    If the people of the Ukraine choose the wealth of the west then let them... Europe needs another Albania...

    I want both the land and the people.

    The people of the Ukraine get a vote and they can choose, but for the moment they are being led by a minority of idiots... like most countries on the planet.

    Some of their Oligarchs have made statements along the lines of the Ukraine has a more prosperous future with Russia but only because closer ties with the EU and US is destroying their fortunes too along with the country... if not the next election then perhaps the election after that reality will start to dawn and they will change their tune.

    HATO has already said it wont fight Russia and they know they can't beat Russia, and Russia has said it will intervene if they try a little genocide, so there are no other options left on the table except wait for the end.

    Russia does not need to invade.... the whole house of cards is collapsing... and the same could be said about the US and EU too.

    Let the Bandera-fans move to Galicia or further West.

    I theory I would agree, but honestly Russia has its own problems and doesn't need to have to fix the Ukraine too... America and the EU broke it... they laughed and joked at doing it for only 5 billion.... they couldn't change their government logo design on the napkins in their canteens for that small amount of money... let America and the EU fix the Ukraine.

    What is this delusion that people under 35 in Kherson or Odessa want to join Russia? They don't. They do not even have a memory of the USSR. They view themselves as Ukrainian - not the same frothing at the mouth Ukrainians as in Kiev or Lvov, but Ukrainian. In 1991 it would have made sense. Today, that ship has long since sailed.

    Exactly... if these people wanted to be Russian they are in the same position as the Crimeans... largely in control of their own territory... they could have had a referendum and decided as a people to leave the Ukraine and become an autonomous region which is what I suspect they will eventually do anyway.... I very much doubt they will want to join the Russian Federation, unless they want armed muscle protecting them... and honestly I can't see Putin rushing that through.

    The Crimea is Russian, everyone in Russia thinks so and more importantly everyone in the Crimea thinks so... the solution was obvious and easy.

    The Ukraine is the Ukraine... they might speak Russian but they are Ukrainian.

    According to John Barrasso (R-Wyoming), one of the lawmakers introducing the bill, Russian President Vladimir Putin “is attempting to dominate and control Ukraine.” The senator said, “we cannot let this bold and dangerous behavior go unchecked. The United States and our allies must not lose control and domination of the Ukraine for they are our pawns and pawns are not for sharing...”

    Yeah, what a faggot.


    Germany reveals long delay for Russian gas pipeline certification

    Hahaha... good profits for Gazprom then...

    They don't know what to do, do they

    They're lost

    Hence the more hysterical and ridiculous the decisions

    Well obviously when sanctions and pressure don't work or indeed actually backfire then the only solution is more sanctions and pressure, because obviously the country that broke the back of the Germans during WWII and endured situations like the Siege of Leningrad... it just takes a little more pressure and they will break.  Obviously.

    They are scared and they don't know what to do... all the countries of Europe combined with the military force of the last remaining super power and their solutions are these...

    Where have all the smart people in the west gone?

    I am so glad Russia and China had good leaders now at a time when the quality of leadership in the west has descended so badly.

    It seems presidents are hand picked by the 1% who don't want a smart leader, they want a leader that will do as they are told so the 1% can make even more money... their problem is that they are picking the captains of the ship based on how much of a suckup they are and the current ones can't read a map let alone steer the ship and the ship is taking on water and the last few captains who thought money floated just ordered more money to be printed to keep the ship afloat... the next president might order holes to be drilled into the hull to let all that water out...
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    Post  flamming_python Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:53 pm

    'No' really is the most powerful word isn't it. True what they say

    And some people just don't know how to take it for an answer

    They start talking smack, but they'll have to come around sooner or later if they're not prepared for a scrap.
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    Post  Sujoy Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:25 pm

    ATLASCUB wrote:US could name Russia ‘state sponsor of terrorism’
    Russia can retaliate by transferring a few dozen nuclear tipped ballistic missile to Iran.
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    Post  RTN Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:36 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    They don't know what to do, do they

    They're lost

    Hence the more hysterical and ridiculous the decisions
    There won't be any war. Russia doesn't have the economy, NATO doesn't have the military.
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    Post  flamming_python Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:03 pm

    RTN wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    They don't know what to do, do they

    They're lost

    Hence the more hysterical and ridiculous the decisions
    There won't be any war. Russia doesn't have the economy, NATO doesn't have the military.

    Russia doesn't need a war. For what?

    It seems to be the Ukraine and NATO that need a war for some reason. They want something, they're not getting it so they start to warn and promise some big war or whatever. In Russia there's absolutely nothing said about this.

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    Post  kvs Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:54 pm

    Indeed. War is a cheat. If you are losing the game, then just turn over the board.

    Americans are in the thrall of their WWII experience. While the eastern front consumed countries and tens of millions of lives,
    America was getting a massive GDP increase. So yanqui deciders are under the delusion that another conventional war in
    Europe will shower them with riches. Of course, this time around they have to worry about getting glassed. So they plan
    on using their bootlicks to do all the dying. That is pretty much the same thing as during WWII.

    Too bad for the yanquis, but history will repeat as a farce.

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    Post  ALAMO Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:58 pm

    RTN wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    They don't know what to do, do they

    They're lost

    Hence the more hysterical and ridiculous the decisions
    There won't be any war. Russia doesn't have the economy, NATO doesn't have the military.

    One of my favorite trolls is true, but ...
    NATO lacks both the economy and the military.
    You own perfectly nothing.
    Enjoy fucking you up in your arse, as I suppose that you are a taxpayer in ANY the involved opposite countries.

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    Post  GarryB Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:17 am

    There won't be any war. Russia doesn't have the economy, NATO doesn't have the military.

    Not having an economy or a military is no prevention of war... WWI happened because all those military powers wanted to test their strength and underestimated their enemy.... it happened again and again... Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan about 6 times...

    If a war starts it will be Zelensky and Russia will crush them and the west will claim it is the invasion they have been worried about all this time and impose super sanctions, but Russia could really do nothing else... they would secure the Donbass and any other region the Kiev forces attacked... their C4IRSTAR is so much better now that HQs and comms centres in the Ukraine will likely get knocked out... hense HATO reports of schools and churches destroyed of course, but the Kiev forces will likely be beaten back by the rebels with Russia help and Russia will at most send peacekeepers and allow these Ukrainians to have a referendum.

    Joining the Russian federation will not be an option... the choices will be negotiations with Kiev, or autonomy with an open border to Russia and of course they will vote for the latter and the west will bitch and moan and complain and get their panties in a knot but not really actually do anything worth a damn.

    If there is no attack the stalemate will remain and Russia will open its borders to these regions who will trade openly with Russia and their economies will develop and progress in a way that the rest of the Ukraine wont... Ukrainians will move there and remain Ukrainians but with a future... elections in Kiev will lead to less hostile governments because the more hostile ones wont deliver anything useful for the people.

    Of course in all of this the EU and US are fucking useless as per usual but we will be told it is all part of some master plan and somehow destroying the Ukraine is going to weaken Russia... somehow.
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    Post  Godric Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:49 am

    GarryB wrote:
    There won't be any war. Russia doesn't have the economy, NATO doesn't have the military.

    Not having an economy or a military is no prevention of war... WWI happened because all those military powers wanted to test their strength and underestimated their enemy.... it happened again and again... Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan about 6 times...

    If a war starts it will be Zelensky and Russia will crush them and the west will claim it is the invasion they have been worried about all this time and impose super sanctions, but Russia could really do nothing else... they would secure the Donbass and any other region the Kiev forces attacked... their C4IRSTAR is so much better now that HQs and comms centres in the Ukraine will likely get knocked out... hense HATO reports of schools and churches destroyed of course, but the Kiev forces will likely be beaten back by the rebels with Russia help and Russia will at most send peacekeepers and allow these Ukrainians to have a referendum.

    Joining the Russian federation will not be an option... the choices will be negotiations with Kiev, or autonomy with an open border to Russia and of course they will vote for the latter and the west will bitch and moan and complain and get their panties in a knot but not really actually do anything worth a damn.

    If there is no attack the stalemate will remain and Russia will open its borders to these regions who will trade openly with Russia and their economies will develop and progress in a way that the rest of the Ukraine wont... Ukrainians will move there and remain Ukrainians but with a future... elections in Kiev will lead to less hostile governments because the more hostile ones wont deliver anything useful for the people.

    Of course in all of this the EU and US are fucking useless as per usual but we will be told it is all part of some master plan and somehow destroying the Ukraine is going to weaken Russia... somehow.

    The British Empire started WW1 ... it wanted to kill two birds with one stone it was getting worried by two new states in Europe Germany & Serbia ... you see Britian had a policy that it had to have a larger navy than the next 7 nations combined (America carried on with that philosophy after WW2) you see the new Dreadnought class battleships made the pre dreadnought battleships obsolete and for every 3 dreadnoughts the British navy was getting Germany was building 2 and this posed a threat to the British Empire so London concocted a plan to draw Germany into a war so Britain could end the threat, back to Serbia ... London was worried about the rapid growth of Serbia and feared Serbia gaining a "Eye" (port) to the sea ... they saw Serbia for some reason as a potential threat to the British Empire in the Mediterranean (it was the British empire that proposed and created Yugoslavia in an attempt at containing Serbia after WW1)

    London convinced Paris to help London put pressure on the Austrian Empire to annex Bosnia knowing full well that Serbia would respond and Austria would retaliate and that Russia would take sides with Serbia and Germany would side with Austria but the unexpected happened the German Kaiser asked the Austrian emperor not to attack Serbia instead give them a ultimatum instead but the Austrian Ultimatum was to harsh for Serbia to accept (Britain/London knew France and Russia had a treaty that if either side was attacked they would declare wart on the country attacking them  .... to Germany's horror Russia started sending troops to the German border (this was because troops were transported by trains and relied on timetables) and realised they had to attack France before France attack Germany from the west facing a war on two fronts ... Germany's only option was to attack France and defeat France before Russia could send the bulk of it's forces ... Britain already had a 170,000 strong BEF in France in participation of War as London believed the war would be over in months and both Germany and Serbia would be put in there place and Austria the patsies would cease to exist falling into London's trap

    you see America had a similar plan with the British empire in the early 1930s to invade Canada to draw the British Empire into a war with America in North America in hope to depose the British Empire as the number 1 power and conquer Canada at the same time the plan was cancelled in 1936 with the rise of Hitler and German knowledge of the plan ... Hitler hoped who ever won was greatly weakened and that the Reich would dominate the world    

    Churchill once said of Stalin that he sided with  1 devil to defeat another devil this coming from a man whose hands were drenched in the blood of millions of Africans and Indians and a Empire responsible for over 250 million deaths and the enslavement of 10s of millions of people including 100,000 scots sent as slaves to the British empire's colonies and remember who created concentration camps first it was the British empire

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    Post  Godric Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:53 pm

    look at it like this had the British Empire had not coerced Austrian-Hungarian Empire to Annex Bosnia WW1 would not have happened or WW2, there would be no red October and soviet uprising led by Lenin, the Romanovs would not have been executed, Russia would not have given South West Russia to Ukraine, Russia would still have a Royal family and Western Europeans would not be afraid of Russia because there would be no communism and 25 to 30 million Russians would not have died in a war against Nazi Germany and her Allies, there would have been no cold war, and millions of Russians & Soviets would not have been persecuted under the Soviet Union .... there would have been no Warsaw pact or Cuban missile Crisis

    Serbia no assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne so no war against Austria-Hungaria Empire, no Yugoslavia and most likely Republica Srbska incorporated into Serbia proper, no Tito and no large numbers of Albanian immigrants to Kosovo, so no invasion by nazi Germany in 1941 and no ethnic cleansing by the Croats killing up a million Orthodox Serbs and Yugoslav civil war and no loss of Kosovo

    from a German and Austrian point of view no world war 1 no humiliation and no break up of there empires and they would still have Royal dynasties, no lost territories to the east for Germany and Germany most likely would have a population of over 110 million today, no rise of Hitler as Germany would not have been broken like what happened after WW1 where Germany was ripe for crackpots to try and take over that and Hitler would not have been badly injured which caused his mental instability, Hitler was actually a talented artist before WW1, and the crackpot history teacher Himmler would never would have seen power to commit his crimes against Jews and other minorities, there would have been no holocaust ... no wiping out of 50% of Europe's Jews and 75% of Europe's Gypsies as well as millions of German handicapped, disabled, political prisoners and those who criticised Hitler and his nazi henchmen.

    From a Turkish/Ottoman point of View no break up of the Empire Palestine and Arabia would still be within it's rule so no Israel or Saudi Arabia so no middle east conflict

    Britain, America and Canada no World War 1 or two to weaken the British empire but it's grip on Scotland would have greatly weakened as Britain needed those wars to keep UK united as Scottish Nationalism was on the rise since the late 19th century with the founding of the Labour party by Keir Hardie and Robert Cunninghame Graham which was essentially the original SNP number 1 of it's agenda was home rule for Scotland ... the main threat to the British Empire was from within from Irish and Scottish nationalists ... Robert Cunninghame Graham went on to found the SNP, there was another problem facing London

    America ... America was not happy playing 2nd fiddle to the British empire America wanted to be top dog ... during WW1 American industry grew massively thanks to British money manufacturing ships, guns and munitions this money helped build up American manufacturing and America's wealth and it was able to put limits on naval sizes ... this greatly strengthened America and weakened/handicapped the British Empire it no longer had a navy 7 times bigger than the next 7 nations combined so without WW1 America 1919 would be no where as powerful or Rich and it's manufacturing base would not be as massive, and the American navy would have remained weak in the late 1920s America devised a plan to invade Canada to draw the British empire into war with America secretly in the early 1930s America built aerodromes across it's northern border with Canada and it only was halted due to the rise of Hitler ... that obstacle would not have been present in the 1930s (with no WW1) ... you see America was not just happy to dethrone the British empire America wanted to expand America into Canada.
    one other biggie in regards to America WW1 was seen as the global spreading event of the Spanish flu that killed 50 to 75 million people world wide ... without WW1 The Spanish flu would have been confined to American shores as trans Atlantic and Trans pacific flights did not exist

    either way by the end of the 1930s early 1940s the British empire would have ceased to exist as well as the break up of the UK .... but America would also be greatly weakened ... with a much smaller Navy than the British empire the American navy would have been pummelled and there coastal cities would have faced Naval bombardments .... Canada would have fallen in a land battle as the logistics of sending large numbers of troops to American continent would soon ending up bankrupting the British Empire and the British empire and Britain would just disintegrate withing 5 to 10 years American military, civilian and manufacturing around there coast would be devastating it would be a hollow victory for America

    London has a lot to answer for it's actions has brought a century of endless wars and destabilisation of the globe mainly by America


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