flamming_python wrote:You know, in regards to the reports of shortages and so on, of course the Ukrainian military is riddled with corruption and problems, the defense industry is running on fumes, much of the ammo has been lying around for decades and so on
But I do tend to believe that they can scrounge up enough for what they need, the stores they have of military supplies date back from the Soviet era and they were massive back then. If not, then they can always get it supplied from NATO. So far publicly at least, the US/UK, as well as France/Germany have not made any public statements disavowing a Ukrainian invasion of the Donbass, nor are there any indications that privately pressure is being put on the Ukrainians to stop plans for an offensive.
Instead over the past 2-3 weeks we've been seeing non-stop reports of Russia preparing to invade the Ukraine, which is indicative of the war drums being beat and Washington preparing its population to support the Ukraine in hostilities over the rebel regions. In any case we can constitute that at the very least supplies will flow to the Ukraine of whatever they need. The West still has a use for its Ukraine project, well in fact its the same use as from the beginning - to use it as a weapon against Russia. Including as a suicidal torpedo if all else fails.
Rather I think the reports are more indicative of anti-regime propaganda efforts, as well as demoralization and a lot of people at all levels getting cold feet over the war plans. The downside of asserting all the time that the Ukraine is facing the Russian military in the Donbass is that people will start to believe that, with the according consequences.
It is not that easy, boys.
Yes, they had waste storage of everything 30 years ago, and that was the fuel of most local conflicts in Africa and Asia for the last 30 years, too.
Those stocks are sold out and depleted.
Go back & check the ammo storages that cooked off occasionally a few years ago, and see with your own eyes, what is left there. And hey! Those mystery emergency situations used to happen in the ones, that were better handled, as stored Smerch or Hurricane missiles. Or Tochkas.
We are talking about a country, that does not produce its own ammo anymore.
But there is not much difference.
What country produces own ammo supply matching the Ukr needs?
Well ... that would be Poland, Czech, Bulgaria ... and that is much it
Hungary opened own small arms&ammo factory, but those are Czech licenses, and NATO standard already. Croatia has some ammo factory either, but same story - mostly NATO standard ammo.
The only really usable stocks out there would be ex-WarPac. But there is not much left, too. The biggest was in Poland, but that was optimized years ago, come sold, some destroyed, some spent, and finally, some delivered to Ukropistan already.
The Polish army does not use neither 7.62x39, nor 5.45x39 for years. We had some small storage of Tantals, but most of those were sold.
There is just the same situation with the rest of them, with countries like Bulgaria earning solid cash for supplying exWarPac stocks and standards to all "in need", mostly a different colour of terror groups. They won't give it as a gift, not now in 2021
Maybe back in 2015, we saw pics like Hungarian heavy gear transported to Ukropia .. but time has changed. Bulgaria is licking Russia's dick and pretends they really like it, while Hungary is watching and gives some polite advice from backstage ...
Keeping the troops with a loaded gun, is not cheap. Ukropia can't afford that.
That was one of the most serious outcomes from the Russian strategic maneuvers back there - ze Wezt
was standing with a dropped jar, seeing how relatively easily, Russia can transfer a HUGE masses of own troops, along the whole territory. This is a dealbreaker. That was just same fun to watch the comments in Summer, when the last peak of hostilities took place.
And I disagree that the west has any plans towards Ukropia. They don't. But they have no bloody idea how to proceed with it, as the result is more fucked than they assumed. Remember, that the solution for Ukraine debated&agreed under the EU support and supervision back in 2014, was not the one made by force later. A political solution, with interim government, early elections, and some constitutional changes - all of that was already happening. And that was the point, US stepped in with nazi battalions and Maidan mass murder.
In fact, UE was screwed by the US.
I suppose, that EU in real prays for Russia invading, and taking the shit away from them. But those nasty Russkies, denied to show up on the own war, again!