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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Nov 21, 2021 2:14 pm

    Isos wrote:
    OSINTtechnical
    @Osinttechnical
    · 9h
    “Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.” https://militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/11/20/russia-preparing-to-attack-ukraine-by-late-january-ukraine-defense-intelligence-agency-chief/

    Russia will attack at precise moment when time, winter and the Ukrainians will be doing their job for them?

    I doubt that




    Isos wrote:.....
    I think Russia wouldn't invade but just push back ukrainian army from the front and oblig them to sign a piece treaty with Donbass. Second step, if it fails, could be precision attacks and air superiority over Ukraine. Final would be the invasion.

    Russia went on record that if there's any intervention by them it will be of such magnitude that the Ukraine will cease to exist as a nation

    That's what stopped 404s from trying anything last time

    We are talking about complete no fly zone over the Ukraine, Syria style air campaign on steroids for months/years, total annihilation of anything that carries weapons including the police, partitioning the whole place in many easily manageable components and arranging for loyal locals to take political and security control over their respective colonial territories to rule as they see fit as long as Russian interests are fully adhered to

    All this before any Russian land vehicle is even switched on let alone moves across the border (if they even bother at all, I think it will be strictly VKS gig)



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    nero


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    Post  nero Sun Nov 21, 2021 2:56 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:We are talking about complete no fly zone over the Ukraine, Syria style air campaign on steroids for months/years, total annihilation of anything that carries weapons including the police, partitioning the whole place in many easily manageable components and arranging for loyal locals to take political and security control over their respective colonial territories to rule as they see fit as long as Russian interests are fully adhered to

    Please stop fantasizing about something that is not going to happen.

    What the Russians will do will depend on what is best for them at the time, though it is hardly belieavable that their operation is going to last more than a few weeks to a month and will likely be as minimal as possible to end the conflict.


    Last edited by nero on Sun Nov 21, 2021 4:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
    franco
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 20 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  franco Sun Nov 21, 2021 4:35 pm

    Isos wrote:The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 20 Fesncr10

    1 - notice in the 15 BTG's grouping. That includes the Donbass militia forces which the Ukrainians officially maintain are Russian Army units since there is no internal Ukrainian opposition to the Maidan "Glory to Ukraine"

    2 - The permanently stationed BTG's in Russia bordering the Ukraine are:
    Crimea (5, soon to be 6 with the 56th Airborne regiment transfer);
    Rostov 8
    Voronezh (2);
    Belgorod (4);
    Bryansk (4)

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Nov 21, 2021 4:45 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:

    Isos wrote:.....
    I think Russia wouldn't invade but just push back ukrainian army from the front and oblig them to sign a piece treaty with Donbass. Second step, if it fails, could be precision attacks and air superiority over Ukraine. Final would be the invasion.

    Russia went on record that if there's any intervention by them it will be of such magnitude that the Ukraine will cease to exist as a nation

    That's what stopped 404s from trying anything last time

    We are talking about complete no fly zone over the Ukraine, Syria style air campaign on steroids for months/years, total annihilation of anything that carries weapons including the police, partitioning the whole place in many easily manageable components and arranging for loyal locals to take political and security control over their respective colonial territories to rule as they see fit as long as Russian interests are fully adhered to

    All this before any Russian land vehicle is even switched on let alone moves across the border (if they even bother at all, I think it will be strictly VKS gig)



    [/quote]

    Most stupid thing I have heard. No offense.

    Russia wouldn't want a destroyed state near its border.

    We saw the results of Iraq or Afghanistan being destroyed by US and it infected neigbour states and was a total fiasco for the US.

    Russians are not stupid. They learned a lot from previous wars, that's why Syrian compain is the opposite of what USSR did in afghanistan or what the US did.

    Anhilating a country that didn't even attack you is also being stupidity (since Russia would position itself as the ageessed country and not the agressor and Ukraine wouldn't attack them directly).

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    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:00 pm


    Wasting your soldiers' lives just to make sure parasite stays attached to you is what doomed USSR

    Destroyed hostile country is not a threat, functional one is

    Syrian campaign is exactly what any action in the Ukraine should look like if it happens: no half assing and no pussy footing, kill everything hostile and make sure loyal proxies run the show

    Keep your soldiers safe and let the aircraft do the work


    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:37 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Wasting your soldiers' lives just to make sure parasite stays attached to you is what doomed USSR

    Destroyed hostile country is not a threat, functional one is

    Syrian campaign is exactly what any action in the Ukraine should look like if it happens: no half assing and no pussy footing, kill everything hostile and make sure loyal proxies run the show

    Keep your soldiers safe and let the aircraft do the work



    In Syria Assad had a big support and they mostly stayed in areas where Assad wasn't seen as evil and where they had local ground forces to control the areas and had population's help.


    What support Donbass people have accross the rest if Ukraine ? None. That's exactly what the US tried to do in Afghanistan and Irak, put puppets at power and bomb the shit out of everyone else. Didn't work and created a huge guerilla that still kills US soldiers.

    You can't control a country with some planes. Russians would need ground forces and the locals, both military and civilians are hostil to them, so they would need russian soldiers only. And Ukrainians have a lot of soviet old weapons to make it a nightmare for them on the long term.

    Their plane would be good for destroying the country but that would be bad for Russia, it would loose Ukraine for ever, push them in Nato hands and that would be a messy area.
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    Post  franco Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:06 pm

    What support Donbass people have accross the rest if Ukraine ? None. That's exactly what the US tried to do in Afghanistan and Irak, put puppets at power and bomb the shit out of everyone else. Didn't work and created a huge guerilla that still kills US soldiers.

    They have a lot of support across Southern Ukraine, most of the Security forces not in the Donbass have to be stationed in these other areas to ensure control and loyalty. Do they (rebels) have a majority support in these areas, probably not but they do have support. In fact the last figures that I have seen, indicated that between 20-25% of the Donbass militia forces members came from these other areas.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:59 pm

    Peskov yesterday

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 20 FEwN6svXoAUNnhZ?format=jpg&name=medium

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    par far


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    Post  par far Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:52 pm

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    Post  par far Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:57 pm

    "Secret Memo Details Turkish Special Forces’ Engagement With Ukrainian Military For Training In Unconventional Warfare"



    https://southfront.org/secret-memo-details-turkish-special-forces-engagement-with-ukrainian-military-for-training-in-unconventional-warfare/

    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:50 pm

    par far wrote:"Secret Memo Details Turkish Special Forces’ Engagement With Ukrainian Military For Training In Unconventional Warfare"
    https://southfront.org/secret-memo-details-turkish-special-forces-engagement-with-ukrainian-military-for-training-in-unconventional-warfare/

    Southfront is dogshit source, stop posting that crap, it's all butthurt fantasies

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    par far


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    Post  par far Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:21 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    par far wrote:"Secret Memo Details Turkish Special Forces’ Engagement With Ukrainian Military For Training In Unconventional Warfare"
    https://southfront.org/secret-memo-details-turkish-special-forces-engagement-with-ukrainian-military-for-training-in-unconventional-warfare/

    Southfront is dogshit source, stop posting that crap, it's all butthurt fantasies



    You saw the link, don't click, if you don't want to see it.
    Odin of Ossetia
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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:44 am

    Odin of Ossetia wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    higurashihougi wrote:(..............)

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 20 256007512_1373681989753630_1448367170987565024_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=gQb6Z-6T6AAAX9u3vNz&_nc_oc=AQklJ2PewsoSFYZr5FFEcvAAEOlLpD5NW0WmtPn8OYTFg4hnld_5qeTV8cEyf0fhNW4&_nc_ht=scontent.fsgn5-11

    In Serbia we call it a win-win situation lol1





    That is a big change from how things were between these two back in early 2007:

    https://asaland.proboards.com/thread/214/bosnia-trained-terrorists-enter-ukraine




    angry


    https://asaland.proboards.com/thread/214/bosnia-trained-terrorists-enter-ukraine




    So they first allow terrorists to enter and attack Russia, and now they are surprised Russia is responding?


    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 20 5UP4DZMUDJD4ZE4HCEZIFTTJ2E
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:23 am

    Next step.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 20 Fetb1h10
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:58 am

    Isos wrote:Next step.
    Ivan is the local 'East wind' agent Laughing
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    Post  Azi Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:30 pm

    The chance for war in Ukraine this winter is 95 % and it's not Russias fault. Main force of escalation is the USA, because the Russia Collusion Hoax is going to implode and the Democtaric Party is loosing on all fronts (Bidens infrastructure spending, Rittenhouse verdict etc.), so they need a big distraction. An additional player is of course Ukraine, they suffer huge from Corona and their death rate is exceptional and not matched worldwide, to this problem Ukraine will also suffer from energy shortage and a lot of Ukraines will freeze their ass this winter.

    The USA is escalating the rhetoric of russian incursion without any proof, so this is the pretext and excuse for ramping up the support for Ukraine and they now consider to send more and more weapons (air defense, javelin etc.). Does anybody remember how Ukraine dismissed the claim of russian troop buildup a few weeks ago...because they were not correctly instructed by their US masters and overminds.

    On the other hand the aggressive rhetoric by USA and Ukraine pressures Russia now to act. The USA sends more and more troops and weapons and if Russia will not react this winter the gap closes and any further military intervention in future will be too costly. It is Russias last chance to react military without suffering too much from personel loss. If they don't react....okay there is a chance of 50 % that Ukraine government will implode latest in spring...that's even a chance.

    How much should Russia take??? EVERYTHING! Ukraine and Russia are ONE! Ukrainians are anti-russian, because USA and the western world worked 30 years to make them anti-russian (for example planned Holodomor with 1 billion deaths in Ukraine bla bla). Remember how anti-russian the chechens were? Is Chechenya now part of Russia or not? So take everything, left nothing behind!!! Every square milimetre left will be used by  by Nazi forces, USA, UK (nearly the same!) for build up of forces against Russia. And if unrest will erupt in Lviv just send Ramsan Kadyrow to holiday there for a few weeks!

    Sadly Ukrainians are too stupid to realize that they don't matter to western world, they are only cannon fodder not more. For western elite, above all in the USA, ALL SLAVS are stupid, degernerate , primitive subhumans only looking like european brothers, but behave like apes...all slavic nations should be aware of this!

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    Post  kvs Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:20 pm

    Ukria will not be closing any military gaps against Russian for decades to come.   The yanquis can send boatloads of Javelins and other wonder waffle
    and that will have squat impact.   Ukria's problem is not merely material deficit.   Its main problem is a mental deficit.

    No, Russia is definitely better off not taking the bait.  It should let this toilet sink into its own excrement this winter.   The Kiev regime will not triumph over
    the Donbass because the Donbass has been preparing for the last 6+ years and is getting full Russian military support in terms of intel and relevant
    equipment.   That you hear nothing about this does not imply nothing is being done.    It is obvious from the tone and language coming out of Moscow
    that it has not thrown the Donbass under any bus.    All the NATzO trainers in Ukria will not make it into a juggernaut just like they failed to make
    Georgia into one.

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    Post  GarryB Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:59 am

    This is all just the US justifying having HATO forces in the Ukraine... the Ukrainians are unable and also likely unwilling to start a conflict they know they are going to lose... even if Russia does not intervene directly, it is pretty clear that they know what they are doing, as shown in Syria, and it is pretty clear the US does not know what it is doing as shown in Syria and Iraq and Iran and Afghanistan and Yemen and everywhere else it has screwed the pooch.

    In many ways I hope they do try something because that will force Russia to do what it did in Georgia and open its borders with the breakaway regions which is going to be a massive boost for the local economy in the break away regions and the potential to achieve something close to normal... which of course Kiev like Tiblisi fear the most... when they don't need you any more they are lost.
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    Post  owais.usmani Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:30 am



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    Post  VARGR198 Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:14 pm

    Meanwhile in #Chernovtsy, #Ukraine: While #Euromaidan activists celebrate complete energy independence from #Russia, local population haven’t had gas / heat for days, began blocking highways out of desperation.

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    Post  flamming_python Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:47 pm



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    Post  JohninMK Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:26 pm

    They need to be a few shades lighter for winter camo.

    Joking aside there must be lots of US and NATO gear moving in and through Poland, lots of exercises going on there and Lithuania.
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:28 pm

    JohninMK wrote:They need to be a few shades lighter for winter camo.

    Joking aside there must be lots of US and NATO gear moving in and through Poland, lots of exercises going on there and Lithuania.

    Let's hope that's all it is
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    Post  miketheterrible Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:47 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:They need to be a few shades lighter for winter camo.

    Joking aside there must be lots of US and NATO gear moving in and through Poland, lots of exercises going on there and Lithuania.

    Let's hope that's all it is

    They wont strike Belarus. Russian army would move in quickly and because the strike happened in Poland first, the US wont do squat if Russia strikes Poland back.
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    Post  Isos Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:20 pm

    Belarus is stronger than Poland. They have:

    S-400 and S-300 protected by tors, buk, strela-10, Tunguskas and Osa.

    4 su-30 controling 39 Mig-29 and 60 su-25.

    Huge number of Bm-30 Smerch, bm-27 Uragan, Polonezh and Toshkas (which can be delivered from russian stocks if they need it).

    Sponsored content


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