The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

I'm more and more convinced though that stepping one foot into that hell-hole beyond rebel territory would be a bad move



Here is the city of Mariupol, which is in the Donbass, the part controlled by Kiev. People deny the prospect of another war, and tend to put the blame for tensions on Kiev or at the very least take a neutral position. Yet I don't see anyone there that's crying for Russia to free them from oppression. Maybe just one guy there who hints at it. They speak of the Ukrainian army as 'their own' side, even if they're not particularly proud of them.
And what's more it's only old people there that are being interviewed. Where are the young? Probably zombified into Ukrainian nationalist identity BS already.

But even if people are generally passively supportive of Russia up to Kharkov or past it - what of it?

There will still be enough Ukrainian nationalist sympathizers to strike at the logistics tail, relay information, carry out sabotage attacks, participate in false-flag operations and whine about Russian occupation. Because the simple fact is that pro-Nazi forces in the Ukraine are ready to fight and die for their ideas, and undertake activity in general - while pro-Russian forces simply are not, in fact the pro-Russian forces are utterly latent and won't be up for any action at all.

The Ukrainian people ultimately have to get rid of their own Nazis themselves. We have no obligation to do that job for them.

I believe it will end much like Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia - Russia will help liberate them, get them full of their respective territory, Push Kiev out and let Ukraine rot while aiding DNR/LNR to get itself modernized and developed.

miketheterrible wrote:I believe it will end much like Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia - Russia will help liberate them, get them full of their respective territory, Push Kiev out and let Ukraine rot while aiding DNR/LNR to get itself modernized and developed.

The thing is, even in the DNR and LNR, people do not deny that they're Ukrainians, and that they're also part of the Ukraine.

They hate the Nazis in Kiev, and the official cult of Russophobia, and that's why they split, but it's still the same country, they're not a separate people from their de-jure countries like the Armenians of Karabakh, or the Abkhaz and Ossetians.

So this divide is ultimately something of an artificial one. The DNR/LNR of course has more than enough support and human intelligence on the ground to counter-act any Kiev attempts at their territory and defend themselves against aggression.

Nevertheless the conflict won't go away until the Nazi-Oligarch alliance in Kiev is vanquished. This can only come I believe, through Russian economic development and the continued rot of the rump Ukrainian state, until finally their people say enough is enough.

At least they can create it as a temporary alternative state to Ukraine. Something like "keeping prospects" of future integration if "this and this" conditions are met. It will be a false belief that things will change and they will be united. But judging by current mood, I don't think they are interested in staying with Kiev. I think recently it was posted here.

The sentiments you speak of was back in 2014.

flamming_python wrote:I'm more and more convinced though that stepping one foot into that hell-hole beyond rebel territory would be a bad move



Here is the city of Mariupol, which is in the Donbass, the part controlled by Kiev. People deny the prospect of another war, and tend to put the blame for tensions on Kiev or at the very least take a neutral position. Yet I don't see anyone there that's crying for Russia to free them from oppression. Maybe just one guy there who hints at it. They speak of the Ukrainian army as 'their own' side, even if they're not particularly proud of them.
And what's more it's only old people there that are being interviewed. Where are the young? Probably zombified into Ukrainian nationalist identity BS already.

But even if people are generally passively supportive of Russia up to Kharkov or past it - what of it?

There will still be enough Ukrainian nationalist sympathizers to strike at the logistics tail, relay information, carry out sabotage attacks, participate in false-flag operations and whine about Russian occupation. Because the simple fact is that pro-Nazi forces in the Ukraine are ready to fight and die for their ideas, and undertake activity in general - while pro-Russian forces simply are not, in fact the pro-Russian forces are utterly latent and won't be up for any action at all.

The Ukrainian people ultimately have to get rid of their own Nazis themselves. We have no obligation to do that job for them.

I remember back in 2014-2015 they were very determined to be liberated from the Ukes... 6 years of repression will teach you to watch what you say

franco wrote:

flamming_python wrote:I'm more and more convinced though that stepping one foot into that hell-hole beyond rebel territory would be a bad move



Here is the city of Mariupol, which is in the Donbass, the part controlled by Kiev. People deny the prospect of another war, and tend to put the blame for tensions on Kiev or at the very least take a neutral position. Yet I don't see anyone there that's crying for Russia to free them from oppression. Maybe just one guy there who hints at it. They speak of the Ukrainian army as 'their own' side, even if they're not particularly proud of them.
And what's more it's only old people there that are being interviewed. Where are the young? Probably zombified into Ukrainian nationalist identity BS already.

But even if people are generally passively supportive of Russia up to Kharkov or past it - what of it?

There will still be enough Ukrainian nationalist sympathizers to strike at the logistics tail, relay information, carry out sabotage attacks, participate in false-flag operations and whine about Russian occupation. Because the simple fact is that pro-Nazi forces in the Ukraine are ready to fight and die for their ideas, and undertake activity in general - while pro-Russian forces simply are not, in fact the pro-Russian forces are utterly latent and won't be up for any action at all.

The Ukrainian people ultimately have to get rid of their own Nazis themselves. We have no obligation to do that job for them.

I remember back in 2014-2015 they were very determined to be liberated from the Ukes... 6 years of repression will teach you to watch what you say

Teach you what to think too. And gradually what you publicly say becomes what you think. So yeah, no need for any liberation.

flamming_python wrote:
Teach you what to think too. And gradually what you publicly say becomes what you think. So yeah, no need for any liberation.

Russia's plan from the start seems to have been that the Donbass should remain in the Ukraine as a balancing block, whilst Kiev absolutely doesn't want that. This is the fundamental stop on progress on Minsk.

I suspect that Russia will react, if the opportunity arose, in such a way that would maximise the chance of Kiev being forced to accept and implement Minsk. It also still has big financial leverage over them in the gas, oil, coal and electricity supplies.

The US of course hates Minsk because it could lead to peace and a reduced chance of Ukraine in NATO.

JohninMK wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
Teach you what to think too. And gradually what you publicly say becomes what you think. So yeah, no need for any liberation.

Russia's plan from the start seems to have been that the Donbass should remain in the Ukraine as a balancing block, whilst Kiev absolutely doesn't want that. This is the fundamental stop on progress on Minsk.

I suspect that Russia will react, if the opportunity arose, in such a way that would maximise the chance of Kiev being forced to accept and implement Minsk. It also still has big financial leverage over them in the gas, oil, coal and electricity supplies.

The US of course hates Minsk because it could lead to peace and a reduced chance of Ukraine in NATO.

If the US wanted the Ukraine in NATO that badly, they'd be in it. I think someone mentioned that here. I've come to agree with this notion.

When Washington says jump, Kiev asks how high

I don't think there would have been any exceptional difficulty in convincing the Ukrainian elite to give up on its claims to Crimea and the Donbass. The Nazis meanwhile are just the tools of those same oligarchs, and none too bright. It's enough to start feeding propaganda instructions through their associated 'intelligentsia', and they'd be convinced to believe that entering NATO and the EU would be worth giving up those territories the population of which they hate anyway. Or simply feed the Nazis the illusion that one day they'd get that territory back, when Russia inevitably collapses.

To the US, the Ukraine is just a tool against Russia. First they wanted to create some ostensibly democratic paradise out of it in order to further the prospect of a Maidan coup in Russia fueled by the bohemian and hipster class as well as the same radical nationalists. That didn't work out, the whole Navalny thing, so now they're toying with trading it back to Moscow in return for neutering ties to China, or if that doesn't work out - to just use it as a suicide hampster to ruin European ties with Russia and stop Nord Stream II.
The other part of it of course is that the US realizes that actually giving the Ukraine NATO membership will quickly invoke a massive crisis with Russia that will inevitably involve them as part of the alliance system.
And of course no-one in Europe is going to want to feed the Ukraine as a proper EU member either. They're useful just as a workforce and agricultural colony.

The US hates Minsk simply because it realizes that the demand of 2 regions for autonomy would quickly spread to other regions, and at that point Russia will regain influence over much of the Ukraine.

Truth be told Minsk is not much of a plan. Federalization to the point of regional feudalism is not a great prospect for any country. The only great prospect would be to wipe out the compadre elite from Kiev along with their Nazi tools, and return the Ukraine to being a not only centralized but also ideologically balanced and sane country that will rebuild economic and industrial ties with Russia as well as with China, while giving Europe that sucked the life, workforce and resources out of it for the last 7 years while giving nothing back but debts - the middle finger. But the later of course cannot happen through a peace process.

I was thinking about Ukrainian power generation.

The largest nuclear power plant in Europe is in Zaporozhe oblast (and if I am not mistaken, close to it there should be also a fairly large thermal power plant (which burns coal and natural gas)) just next to the Dnepr river.

If an eventual Novorussian independent Republic should expand until the Dnepr and control the powerplants, it would spell big problems for Ukrainian energy needs.


The issue is also that the powerplant is just at the river bank at the edge of Zaporozhe oblast, just in front of Nikopol coast (west part of Dnepropetrovsk oblast).

So if the part of Dnepropetrovsk oblast west of the Dnepr would remain in Ukrainian control the nuclear power plant could be in danger of eventual attacks from pro Nazi groups.

The orcs are just a condom to be used to hose Russia and stop NS 2, and like all condoms they will end up in the trash where they belong.

We have a good number from Novorossiya coming down here for holiday and most of them go to 35th Battery. We've talked to a bunch of them in the last few years and their main dream is peace and safety for their loved ones, but not at any price. They will fight if needs be, and most would dearly love to be brought back in to the loving arms of Mother. Our 'volunteers' are back and forth all the time and they say the same thing, Novorossiya wants in Rossiya.

As for this village and the island, Satan will be driving an Ural with a 4 meter snow blade on the front before we go back to orcland. Ain't gonna happen no way no how, ever. All the rest is just endlessly 'debating' and arguing over nothing. Reality is reality, and Mother will never abandon us nor will we abandon Mother, and Mother has made it very clear that the orcs will not conquer Novorossiya. End of story.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

So if the part of Dnepropetrovsk oblast west of the Dnepr would remain in Ukrainian control the nuclear power plant could be in danger of eventual attacks from pro Nazi groups.

As crazy as some of these groups are, I don't think anyone will attack a nuclear plant on territory they claim as their own.

another good map to track events. Not sure about how reliable it is, though.

https://liveuamap.com/

Were aware of that Ukrop map site. Been used plenty times here.

auslander wrote:The orcs are just a condom to be used to hose Russia and stop NS 2, and like all condoms they will end up in the trash where they belong.

We have a good number from Novorossiya coming down here for holiday and most of them go to 35th Battery. We've talked to a bunch of them in the last few years and their main dream is peace and safety for their loved ones, but not at any price. They will fight if needs be, and most would dearly love to be brought back in to the loving arms of Mother. Our 'volunteers' are back and forth all the time and they say the same thing, Novorossiya wants in Rossiya.

As for this village and the island, Satan will be driving an Ural with a 4 meter snow blade on the front before we go back to orcland. Ain't gonna happen no way no how, ever. All the rest is just endlessly 'debating' and arguing over nothing. Reality is reality, and Mother will never abandon us nor will we abandon Mother, and Mother has made it very clear that the orcs will not conquer Novorossiya. End of story.

That may be the selection bias though

What about all the people from Novorossiya who don't come down to the Crimea for holidays?

flamming_python wrote:

auslander wrote:The orcs are just a condom to be used to hose Russia and stop NS 2, and like all condoms they will end up in the trash where they belong.

We have a good number from Novorossiya coming down here for holiday and most of them go to 35th Battery. We've talked to a bunch of them in the last few years and their main dream is peace and safety for their loved ones, but not at any price. They will fight if needs be, and most would dearly love to be brought back in to the loving arms of Mother. Our 'volunteers' are back and forth all the time and they say the same thing, Novorossiya wants in Rossiya.

As for this village and the island, Satan will be driving an Ural with a 4 meter snow blade on the front before we go back to orcland. Ain't gonna happen no way no how, ever. All the rest is just endlessly 'debating' and arguing over nothing. Reality is reality, and Mother will never abandon us nor will we abandon Mother, and Mother has made it very clear that the orcs will not conquer Novorossiya. End of story.

That may be the selection bias though

What about all the people from Novorossiya who don't come down to the Crimea for holidays?

The people who do come from there who tell him will know better than yourself, that's for sure.

flamming_python wrote:That may be the selection bias though. What about all the people from Novorossiya who don't come down to the Crimea for holidays?

They come from all walks of life and all ages, newborn to babushki and dedushki. We've been up there, too, so I stand by what I wrote. Of course I'm sure it's not 100% who want what I wrote, but with the culling of the last 7 years, I'd say the majority favor what I wrote.

auslander wrote:

flamming_python wrote:That may be the selection bias though. What about all the people from Novorossiya who don't come down to the Crimea for holidays?

They come from all walks of life and all ages, newborn to babushki and dedushki. We've been up there, too, so I stand by what I wrote. Of course I'm sure it's not 100% who want what I wrote, but with the culling of the last 7 years, I'd say the majority favor what I wrote.

I'd like to believe you, I'll just leave it at that. But with no signs of life we probably have to say that the body is in a coma at the very least.

And I don't think that the Donbass should be incorporated into Russia or anything like that; all these divisions were already made by the Bolsheviks in 1920 or so and not for no reason. And ultimately, it would kind of be a cop-out, if indeed there still is brain activity in the rest of the Ukraine.

flamming_python wrote: I'd like to believe you, I'll just leave it at that. But with no signs of life we probably have to say that the body is in a coma at the very least. And I don't think that the Donbass should be incorporated into Russia or anything like that; all these divisions were already made by the Bolsheviks in 1920 or so and not for no reason. And ultimately, it would kind of be a cop-out, if indeed there still is brain activity in the rest of the Ukraine.

I have the opinions of those I and we talked to, that's what I reported. I have no idea if their dreams will come true or when. You have your opinion, I have mine. So be it, it's not a problem for me.

Right after the govt fell in 2014, they should have relocated Viktor Yanukovych as the president of Ukraine in the east. He could have been the president of both republics as a unit. Then he could still claim to be the legitimate president of Ukraine.

Backman wrote:Right after the govt fell in 2014, they should have relocated Viktor Yanukovych as the president of Ukraine in the east. He could have been the president of both republics as a unit. Then he could still claim to be the legitimate president of Ukraine.

Well that's what I suggested at the time

But in retrospect, it would have been a stillborne idea.

You expect that fat corrupt fk who got out of Kiev the moment his bacon was on the line, then linked up to a conference of governors of eastern regions 2 days later and pledged support, only to again have to flee all the way to Russia and leave everyone he addressed to hang - to be able to take the reigns of a war-time republic declared by rebellious regions?

The Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass were left without satellite communications, GPS and SEC equipment due to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (Sevastopol News Portal)

According to the news-r.ru portal, in the Donbas, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were subjected to a "radio strike" due to electronic warfare from the RF Armed Forces, and now they are left without GPS.

Now the Ukrainian army does not have the opportunity to use its UAVs, radars, radar reconnaissance systems and other instruments for confrontation. This information was shared by the Chinese edition of Sohu. According to the newspaper, the OSCE reported a surge in activity to suppress signals. Such maneuvers contribute to the emergence of opinions that the escalation of the conflict is already close.

Sohu experts note that by this method the Russian Federation wants to return Ukraine to the “path” of the Minsk agreements and force Ukraine to comply with all previously signed agreements. At the same time, the publication also notes that Russia has clearly voiced its position on the protection of its citizens in Donbass in the event of an escalation of the conflict.

Confirmed via land line conversation, Gorlovka DNR, 23:40 11 April 2021.

Notice there are no Russ Army number tags on either vehicle with the two digit code for Front location. For instance, 21 is Gorod Sevastopol.

auslander wrote:

What big ears you have Grandma................................