China will replace the US as the next SLOCs policeman & the Russian seaborne trade (a fraction of China's) outside of the NSR will be secure under her protection.
The US has never been Russias or the Soviet Unions SLOCs policeman... and China wont be either.
Thus Russia without blue water navy has access to 3/4 of worlds population. The main problem there is to have competitive goods and enough population. First can be fairly easy done, the second one is the real problem here. Not high seas navy to me.
No they don't.
You can pretty much ignore Europe except for cheap gas sales, politically they will likely block cheap goods from Russia just because it suits them to keep Russia isolated and of course to protect domestic production of the same goods.
That means 1.5 billion Chinese... but they also generally have locally made alternatives that will also be cheaper.
Soon 1.4 billion Indians, but Russia will be competing with the west here and you still can't send goods via rail or aircraft to India efficiently... most major international trade is by sea.
So africa and central and south america are potential growth areas of trade for Russia... for which a blue water Navy would be useful to support...
France cannot afford 2. Has one: 42kts displacement, 30 fighters + 800 Marines
France has "territories" around the world that act as unsinkable carriers.. as does the UK.
Russia really does not have allies or slaves to take advantage of... which is a good thing in my opinion.
UK: has built 2. with 36 +14 helos VSTOL fighters, AWACS Sea King based and no catobar , with ability to support amphibious operations (marines onboard) lol1 lol1 lol1 Kuz size (65ktons). Nowhere near US Ford/Nimitz.
Are you retarded?
Why do you keep bringing up fucking stupid American white elephants... this is nothing to do with them.
In such case I can agree, makes sense
As global powers France and the UK are diminishing every year, yet they still bother with aircraft carriers... but you claim they are not necessary...
the fun here is that they need nto to sail all over the world. they will b everywhere, you can just call nearest CSG
Are you suggesting dialing local chinese carrier... fried rice and wontons?
What sort of thing are you thinking... Russian cargo ship being threatened by ships from Uraguay, and so it calls a nearby Chinese ship to help... really?
China is International Rescue?
Send Thunderbird one as fast as you can...
I agree with above but moral values and west is an oxymoron
Exactly... you can't just hope they will do the right thing... they will do what suits their big companies... which means stopping Chinese and Russian investment... recently May said UK investment in Africa is a positive thing that will help both countries, but Chinese investment in Africa will lead to an unnecessary debt spiral that will destroy the country and just enrich China...
And that is the secret... by all means listen to western leaders, but reverse it, and you will hear the truth... try it... look at Trumps speech about Iran at the UN recently but replace the word Iran with the word US and he is telling the full truth and being completely honest...
The west accuses everyone else of doing what they are doing or what they intend to do.
No, not the same. But avionics and element base was from 2000s. And we talk about status in 2030s.
No it isn't... MiG have been developing new avionics all the time... the AESA they put in their MiG-35s will not be from 2000s... the DAS is not from the 2000s, the engines are the most recent models, the avionics are their most recent models... and in 2030 they will likely have had 3-4 upgrade cycles since then too... F-18 avionics are not from the 1970s either.
They might add gefests I wont be arguing. But radars and avionics still are form early 2000s. In 2030s will be mildly speaking behind competitors.
Of course... there is a rule that what they fit them with now is what they must be fitted with in 15 years time... in fact I believe it is a law.
Right now they have Su-33s and MiG-29KRs... by 2030 they will likely have put photonic radars and the latest in IIR sensors and other systems in their existing aircraft as upgrades.
They wanted bagruzin and liders which wont happen at all (bagruzin) or much much later (lider) . They dotn have money. SO either they buy what they can or remain with nothing.
Of course they have money, they just don't have unlimited money.
You don't save money by buying a smaller rifle and not putting as many bullets in each magazine...
They don't need to spend 20 billion and have two new CVNs in 2030... they already have one carrier so one CVN over the next 15 years and another 8-10 years after that means they wont have three carriers (CV + CVNx2) till the mid 2030s at the earliest.
I would say the squadrons of stealthy STOVL 5th gen fighters (doubled so there are spare aircraft on the ground practising) are going to cost more than the carriers they are operating from.
So it is a naval only carrier only aircraft of very limited use.
It might be worth it if it could do things other planes can't do... but an Su-57 can take off from a 300m strip of motorway at max weight... a VSTOL can destroy a 300m strip of runway and crash...
They considered your option for sure it turned out VSTOL is much better and cost efficient option
No. Actually the opposite. They said the Yak-38 could replace the Su-25 and it was tested in Afghanistan and was total shit in the CAS role... what were the US Marines intending to use the AV-8 for? Ohh... that is right... CAS.
To be fair, the AV-8 is a much better aircraft in every way to the Yak-38, but it is still crap as CAS.
If you have Moscow point defense you need 300km radius at least. But ok call it group area defense. What doestn change meaning.
S-400 has a 300km radius with AWACS support...
After 5 years "almost ready to buy" they bought 6 pieces and kicked off a project to build new fighter. Meh accidental coincidence
The MiG-35 has nothing to do with this new STOVL fighter... this new design wont even be test flying prototypes for 10 years, and you think it is a MiG-35 replacement?
I would suspect this new STOVL will be a joint project between Yak and MiG... Yak will be useful for the VL aspect, but they know nothing about designing and making a 5th gen light fighter...
No MiG-35 wont be cheaper but less effective and obsolete. Basically new design will take into account drone mode unlike 50 years old MiG-35 frame design.
Look at what you are saying... (note: drone mode is secret code for easy to shoot down).
The F-35 and Rafale and F-18 were never designed with drones in mind so there wont be any up to date designs in 2030... they can all be obsolete together...
BTW took this quote from article above posted about orders:
Also speaking at the briefing, United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) president Yuri Slyusar said that judging by their price-performance ratios, the Su-57 and MiG-35 represent the best solution in their classes...
Yeah.... already obsolete you say...
Precisely! 10 years MiG-29k still will be in service. At least on Kuz.
The F-18 and F-35 and Rafale will also still be in service... so why are your panties in such a bunch... when they modify the Su-57 into a carrier based model it will rule supreme... because everything else will be obsolete... and not only that it will be able to operate from any new CVNs Russia might make, but also from the Kuz because it is smaller but more powerful than the Su-33 already able to operate from it.
Then why Greenland is not richer than Switzerland ? Or Canada then Japan? Why China is next superpower not Canada?
Because the west wanted cheap labour and invested in production in China... they did the same thing in a lot of countries... including Japan and Malaysia and the Phillipines and South Korea... some of those countries became successful, and others did not.
If population is so damn important why isn't India an economic or military power house?
Or how about Indonesia?
Stability and safety is foremost need of every country and if Russia can guarranty it, partnerships can be born.
Russia needs to be able to show it has muscle, so that it is seen as a real alternative to the west... this does not mean recklessly bombing countries and overthrowing regimes left right and centre to suit your agenda like the US and colonial europe does... it is about respect for international law and the soverignty of the countries you are dealing with.
Thus unlikely next 15-20 years Russia will build one.
Second number of ships and size of CVNs wont ever match US fleet.
Why the fuck do you keep bringing this up?
Who gives a flying fuck about the US fleet... the Russian navy can easily match the US fleet... it is called Zircon and Kinzhal... and in a few years time an IRBM design if fired from a land based platform would have a 2,000km range, but because it is air launched and has a scramjet sustainer engine can reach targets 6,000km away at mach 12... and is perfectly legal under the INF treaty because it will be air launched...
That's why my bet is on small universal CVNs. IT si better to have 2-3 small than 0 big.
The cost of 3 small carriers will exceed the cost of 2 big ones when you include the cost of the escorts and port support requirements... and you also have to allow the fact that smaller carriers will be less well defended and not able to operate away from Russian waters as long as a larger vessel could.
We agree these carries are not for Russian waters... what you are saying is that buying three small round town cars will be cheaper than buying a campervan... but I really don't think even that is true because the on road costs of 3 cars compared with a campervan... but more importantly having to take two cars for camping because one wont be good enough... really?
I cannot see Arabic spring relation with blue water navy. BTW Russian security company employees are working already in Central African Republic,. Egypt, Algeria, Tanzania or Angola are buying Russian military equipment, SA is part of BRICS. Libya is waiting for help.
If Russia gets contracts and good business relationships with a small African country then the CIA might decide to create unrest and overthrow the government like they have in lots and lots of countries... including the Ukraine...
A Syria like support intervention from Russia is not too hard, but one in Africa or central or south america where the west could simply get in the queue for the Suez canal and then abandon the ship to block it for a month would stop Russian support options...
Africa is cool continent to visit an dfor the future but economical realities look now quite different.
Google says: World population 2018 7,7 billions of people.
Asia:.......4,545,133,094..........59.5 % of world population
Population numbers alone mean nothing... the US market for small arms is much bigger than the Chinese market for small arms for Kalashnikov Concern... using the numbers the way you are using them suggests Russia would be better off trying to sell to China, but common sense suggests America is a much bigger and potentially more profitable market... if it wasn't so anti trade and anti Russian.
Africa has vastly more growth potential than Asia has, and central and south America also offers opportunities... Russia is in no position to ignore any of these opportunities... but most of the Asian and all of the African and central and south american trade will be via the sea.
Numbers say: Asia will still be most important worlds' market in next at least 30-50 years, especially for energy and food. Perhaps Africa will grow faster but has almost 4 times less people and by order of magnitude smaller GDP. Most of Asian countries can be reached by land, Caspian Sea or along Chinese waters. IMHO demographic factor impacting economical growth si more important than sea routes.
Asia is already growing without trade with Russia... Africa and central and south america need trade to grow... and Russia can grow with them.
Exactly. Russia doesn't need to use the Suez, Panama & future Nicaraguan canals with Malacca/Indonesian/Gibraltar straits for most of her current & future seaborne trade;
THAT IS THE POINT... their current trade is stunted and hemmed in, which hurts their trade potential and limits their future trade growth... their land neighbours are assholes... look at them... Finland... wants to join NATO, the Baltic states are in NATO and hate Russia, the Ukraine... hates Russia and wants to cut off all trade, Belarus wants to be friendly with the EU but knows it does not meet their high standards (ie does not hate Russia enough)... Georgia... do I need to go on?
The only friendly borders are former Soviet States that are in the same shit cart Russia is geographically and China... and the term friendly can only be loosely applied to some.
To make money and grow Russia needs to trade... not reproduce and become a bananastan.
It is not an accident that aging populations is a symptom of education and healthcare advancement...
The Chinese blue water navy already or by then guarding the "Maritime Silk Road" SLOCs will help, while the VMF/VKS will guard the Bering Strait, N. Sea & Transpolar Routes.
That is important, but Russias future is more than just being the footpath between China and Europe.
Not a word about a naval Su-57 member of the family
The Su-57 is not cheap, but any made for the next 10 years wont be carrier aircraft.
When they have laid down the carrier they will navalise some Su-57s and test them on the Kuznetsov and land based carrier simulators and then probably decide whether to bother making navalised Su-57s or just use navalised MiG-35s, or whatever comes of the light 5th gen fighter... VL or not.