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    Russian Civil Aviation: News #4

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    Yugo90


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    Post  Yugo90 Sat Mar 05, 2022 11:27 pm

    Hole wrote:A little example from Dmitry Orlov, from the Saker site:

    Meanwhile, in the West, it may finally be dawning on some people that the extent of the self-inflicted damage from the anti-Russian hysteria is more than anybody bargained for.

    For example, the EU demanded that all Russian leases on Airbus jets—over 500 of them—be cancelled. It also blocked the sale of Airbus parts to Russia and forbade Russian planes from being serviced. It also closed its airspace to Russian planes and Russia closed its airspace to EU planes in response. The EU also blocked the SWIFT payment system. This means the following things:

    • The European leasing companies will have to pay Russia huge fines for canceling the leases but can’t because SWIFT isn’t working.

    • The European leasing companies have to get their planes out of Russian territory but can’t because their flight crews can’t get into Russia and once they take possession of the planes the planes won’t be allowed to take off (airspace is closed).

    • The planes can no longer be serviced according to the maintenance schedule, which means that in a couple of months they won’t be able to fly at all.

    • Given that this is a force majeur circumstance, the Russian government can very easily nationalize these planes, including all of the intellectual property and patent rights contained therein, and start making their own parts and providing their own service.

    • Given all of the above, the obvious choice for the European leasing companies to declare bankruptcy and cease operations. Company representatives have said as much.
    Idiots in europe will cause more problems for us europeaans than Russians. They really are stupid enough not to care if they sink the whole europe because uncle Joe said so

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Mar 06, 2022 12:45 am

    From a telegram channel

    They'll need much less planes anyway since many destinations serviced are now blocked. I've no doubt Russia can build it's own passenger planes, they just didn't have to till now:

    «Tatarstan business resource "BUSINESS Online" in the material of Timur Latypov "What are we going to fly on? Minnikhanov decided to remind Moscow about the ruined "cranes" from Kazan. Even after years of harassment, the Tu-214 and Tu-334 can replace enemy Boeing and Airbus," writes that all imported aircraft are being taken away from Russia. And today it is very clear: in the new world born after February 24, our country should have aircraft of its own production and from its own components. So far, Superjet and MS-21 are seen as such, but, as BUSINESS Online has learned, Tatarstan has a different point of view — to revive civilian "carcasses". What the republic offers, some experts call an adventure, others - a wise step.

    On March 2, Boeing and Airbus completely stopped servicing Russian aircraft, including ship maintenance and spare parts supplies. The company's decision was made due to EU sanctions — on the night of February 26, a ban was imposed on the supply and leasing of aircraft to Russia. Within a month, that is, until March 26, the aircraft leased from foreigners must be returned.

    It is not difficult to estimate the scale of losses for Russian airlines: today Russian carriers operate about 980 passenger airliners, 750 of them are Boeing, Airbus, there are a few Embraer and Bombardier. 531 aircraft will have to be returned, it follows from the information of the Cirium agency. The rest will remain without repair and maintenance, and therefore flights may also become impossible. According to experts, modern aircraft are "flying computers" and some critical procedures can only be carried out by the manufacturer himself. Thus, about 130 Russian Superjet 100s remain as a weak consolation.»
    https://t.me/bmpd_cast/10850
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Mar 06, 2022 1:09 am

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:From a telegram channel

    They'll need much less planes anyway since many destinations serviced are now blocked. I've no doubt Russia can build it's own passenger planes, they just didn't have to till now:

    «Tatarstan business resource "BUSINESS Online" in the material of Timur Latypov "What are we going to fly on? Minnikhanov decided to remind Moscow about the ruined "cranes" from Kazan. Even after years of harassment, the Tu-214 and Tu-334 can replace enemy Boeing and Airbus," writes that all imported aircraft are being taken away from Russia. And today it is very clear: in the new world born after February 24, our country should have aircraft of its own production and from its own components. So far, Superjet and MS-21 are seen as such, but, as BUSINESS Online has learned, Tatarstan has a different point of view — to revive civilian "carcasses". What the republic offers, some experts call an adventure, others - a wise step.

    On March 2, Boeing and Airbus completely stopped servicing Russian aircraft, including ship maintenance and spare parts supplies. The company's decision was made due to EU sanctions — on the night of February 26, a ban was imposed on the supply and leasing of aircraft to Russia. Within a month, that is, until March 26, the aircraft leased from foreigners must be returned.

    It is not difficult to estimate the scale of losses for Russian airlines: today Russian carriers operate about 980 passenger airliners, 750 of them are Boeing, Airbus, there are a few Embraer and Bombardier. 531 aircraft will have to be returned, it follows from the information of the Cirium agency. The rest will remain without repair and maintenance, and therefore flights may also become impossible. According to experts, modern aircraft are "flying computers" and some critical procedures can only be carried out by the manufacturer himself. Thus, about 130 Russian Superjet 100s remain as a weak consolation.»
    https://t.me/bmpd_cast/10850

    Thing about that is that Russia supplies titanium parts to the same Boeing and Airbus

    Russia will stop using them, and Boeing/Airbus will stop producing them

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sun Mar 06, 2022 1:20 am

    The number of leased jets is 500. But the companies leasing them cannot retrieve them since

    1) they can't send crews

    2) those planes are no longer registered to fly over Russia

    So all the talk is about the leasing companies declaring bankruptcy and leaving the 500 jets in Russia. Any solution that is
    favourable to NATzO will require special negotiations and that means Russia can demand proper compensation.

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    Post  Werewolf Sun Mar 06, 2022 2:18 am

    kvs wrote:The number of leased jets is 500.   But the companies leasing them cannot retrieve them since

    1) they can't send crews

    2) those planes are no longer registered to fly over Russia

    So all the talk is about the leasing companies declaring bankruptcy and leaving the 500 jets in Russia.   Any solution that is
    favourable to NATzO will require special negotiations and that means Russia can demand proper compensation.


    Russia:
    Russian Civil Aviation: News #4 - Page 23 Downlo10

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    Autodestruct


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    Post  Autodestruct Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:30 am

    Boeing stops buying Russian titanium.

    https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boeing-stops-buying-russian-titanium/147824.article

    This will create short term problems for Boeing. Most of the world's titanium producers are focused on paints and dyes. There aren't many companies that can produce large volumes of sponge titanium and castings and forgings. But it's also a problem for VSMPO. Russian production will never be able to compensate for Boeing's production. But they can - and should - move beyond aerospace. Medicine also makes heavy use of titanium alloys, and there are seven billion people in the world.

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    Post  lancelot Tue Mar 08, 2022 4:14 am

    AFAIK paint uses titanium dioxide TiO2. Not actual titanium metal Ti. It is same difference as between rust and iron metal. Except it is white. Laughing
    You cannot use rust to build things.

    Russia needs to get Kazakhstan on board with some kind of titanium tariffs to these countries or something.

    Japan produces about as much titanium as Russia and it will be the likely replacement for the West. But making titanium metal is really energy intensive.
    And guess what Japan has most of its nuclear power plants idle and is burning natural gas (LNG) to power most of its electricity and industry. silent

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    Post  Autodestruct Thu Mar 10, 2022 4:14 pm

    UEC is going to try to accelerate the certification of the PD-8 engine. They are targeting having it available for the market in 12-14 months.

    https://aviation21.ru/sertifikaciya-dvigatelya-pd-8-budet-uskorena/

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    Post  mnztr Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:12 am

    Very curious why Russian airspace is not yet closed to US planes? Maybe the leasing companies can transfer ownership to a US company so it becomes a US plane and then fly them to Turkey.
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    Post  GarryB Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:21 am

    Isn't Russia seizing the aircraft, just the same way the UK seized Venezuelan gold, and the US seized all sorts of things from all sorts of groups?

    In that case transferring ownership means nothing at all.

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    Post  mnztr Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:06 am

    GarryB wrote:Isn't Russia seizing the aircraft, just the same way the UK seized Venezuelan gold, and the US seized all sorts of things from all sorts of groups?

    In that case transferring ownership means nothing at all.

    They can but what are these planes worth vs the billions of Russian central bank assets frozen? Maybe the Russians should mass on the Polish border and tell the EU to unfreeze their assets or they will be forced to send a "collection team"
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    Post  Vann7 Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:45 pm

    lancelot wrote:AFAIK paint uses titanium dioxide TiO2. Not actual titanium metal Ti. It is same difference as between rust and iron metal. Except it is white. Laughing
    You cannot use rust to build things.

    Russia needs to get Kazakhstan on board with some kind of titanium tariffs to these countries or something.

    Japan produces about as much titanium as Russia and it will be the likely replacement for the West. But making titanium metal is really energy intensive.
    And guess what Japan has most of its nuclear power plants idle and is burning natural gas (LNG) to power most of its electricity and industry. silent

    Solution for japan..

    buy energy from russia ,to compensate the russian sanctions on titanium to the west. russia
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:47 pm

    Not many parking spaces left. There must be other places to park them.

    Russian Civil Aviation: News #4 - Page 23 FNlwWaOWYAcKlig?format=jpg&name=large
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    Post  miketheterrible Sat Mar 12, 2022 12:36 am

    I would just start selling those excess jets to other countries. Reduce the amount of these jets and look at more localized production. I agree with ISOS on brining back the Tu-204 and what not designs.
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    Post  limb Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:24 am

    miketheterrible wrote:I would just start selling those excess jets to other countries.  Reduce the amount of these jets and look at more localized production.  I agree with ISOS on brining back the Tu-204 and what not designs.
    Do russian aircraft factories have the ability to produce them in high double digit numbers per year? Also what about intercontinental widebodies? Does thsi mean that the PD-35 will be ready earlier? Can russians produce carbon composites in very large quantities?
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    Post  GarryB Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:44 am


    They can but what are these planes worth vs the billions of Russian central bank assets frozen?

    There are lots of other western assets in Russia they could also freeze to make the numbers match.

    Was reading an article from a western book on unflown Soviet and Russian aircraft and it mentions that the Tu-330 used a lot of components and design commonalities with the Tu-204 and would be relatively quick and easy to design and build if it got the go ahead.

    I would think putting Tupolev transports back into production along with some airliners would be a smart move, with the necessary upgrades and new engines I would think they would be excellent aircraft.

    Do russian aircraft factories have the ability to produce them in high double digit numbers per year? Also what about intercontinental widebodies? Does thsi mean that the PD-35 will be ready earlier? Can russians produce carbon composites in very large quantities?

    Air travel is hardly booming at the moment so even if they were ready to mass produce aircraft there would be no market just yet... most airlines probably have more aircraft than they actually need right now let alone looking to buy new aircraft.

    More funding and resources might be directed to getting engines ready and into production faster, and I believe they have a fairly solid carbon composites production capacity... made independent these last few years thanks to previous sanctions.

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    Post  mnztr Sat Mar 12, 2022 3:02 am

    Does anyone really want to see any airliner rushed into production? I think one solution is lease planes from other nations on short team leases though chinese airlines so they are rotated through and receive maint as part of the lease renewal. But in the longer run, they will really need to ready and ramp up MC-21 with full Russian components. I am not sure where they are with a Russian avionics package.
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    Post  lancelot Sat Mar 12, 2022 3:53 am

    Even if those leasing companies could take back the aircraft they leased to Russia they would be the ones taking a massive hit.

    There are just way too many airplanes in the world market right now that no one can use. Also, if you look at the Russian airplane fleet, most of it is older generation models. The Aeroflot fleet for example has few A320NEO or A350 aircraft. Most are like two decades old designs. Their residual value is shit. Especially in the current world aviation market.

    The Russian government had pressed Aeroflot to switch purchases to the Irkut MC-21 and Sukhoi Superjet. So, thankfully, purchase of A320NEO was cut just in time. This also means it should be relatively easy to get parts for those aircraft in the black market I think. Sure, they might use a bit more fuel, but Russia never had issues with that.

    The Russian government held the aircraft because this way they will have a reserve until their own aircraft become available. It will also provide them with a pool of aircraft they can cannibalize.

    mnztr wrote:Does anyone really want to see any airliner rushed into production? I think one solution is lease planes from other nations on short team leases though chinese airlines so they are rotated through and receive maint as part of the lease renewal. But in the longer run, they will really need to ready and ramp up MC-21 with full Russian components. I am not sure where they are with a Russian avionics package.
    Not really. I think they would be better off not rushing it. But just consider this. US and EU aviation authorities might refuse Russian aircraft certification. If they only need to fly inside Russia, they probably can expedite certification. Just doing EU certification can easily add another year to service entry.
    The Russian avionics package, last time I heard of it like a year or two ago, was in testing.

    I do not think leasing from other nations would work. They would likely hit them with secondary sanctions.

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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sat Mar 12, 2022 5:08 am

    Isn't it time to bring back the NK-93 engine? But make it electric this time with the SuperOx's help. Wasn't it even considered very promising even by biased russophobic Western opinions? But of course the very corrupt Boeing lobby in the Duma had killed the project, just like how they killed all other domestic civilian airliner projects. Mad Rolling Eyes Mad Rolling Eyes



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    Post  lancelot Sat Mar 12, 2022 5:17 am

    That is the propfan engine right? Those were quite popular a development back then and most engine manufacturers had a program. The idea was to minimize fuel consumption and not cut down top speed too much. Oil was really expensive at this time. Then the oil price crashed, and noise regulations got more restrictive. Most propfans had huge noise issues. I do not know about the NK-93 though. Since the fan is shrouded maybe the noise level is lower than with other propfans. But I am certain they could make a more modern engine core with current engine technology than the one it used.
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    Post  Autodestruct Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:49 pm

    Isn't it time to bring back the NK-93 engine? But make it electric this time with the SuperOx's help. Wasn't it even considered very promising even by biased russophobic Western opinions?

    NK-93 had a lot wrong with it. That's why nobody wanted to fork over money to bring it to market. I'm sure the problems with reliability (and the lack of instrumentation that would allow for condition based maintenance) could be addressed. But that takes time. So the NK-93 is not something that can quickly be materialized. And it likely isn't even worth fooling with now.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sat Mar 12, 2022 10:36 pm

    Autodestruct wrote:
    Isn't it time to bring back the NK-93 engine? But make it electric this time with the SuperOx's help. Wasn't it even considered very promising even by biased russophobic Western opinions?

    NK-93 had a lot wrong with it.  That's why nobody wanted to fork over money to bring it to market.  I'm sure the problems with reliability (and the lack of instrumentation that would allow for condition based maintenance) could be addressed.  But that takes time.  So the NK-93 is not something that can quickly be materialized.  And it likely isn't even worth fooling with now.

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sat Mar 12, 2022 11:52 pm

    limb wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:I would just start selling those excess jets to other countries.  Reduce the amount of these jets and look at more localized production.  I agree with ISOS on brining back the Tu-204 and what not designs.
    Do russian aircraft factories have the ability to produce them in high double digit numbers per year? Also what about intercontinental widebodies? Does thsi mean that the PD-35 will be ready earlier? Can russians produce carbon composites in very large quantities?
    with current factories I do not believe they could do more than a dozen Tu-204 per year and maybe 6 il-96. If they need new widebodies they could put back in service a few il-96 300 and start production of il96-400M. Apart from being more fuel thirsty than twin jets with more modern engines they are good aircrafts... And in about 6 years they could introduce a new derivative with new wings and 2 PD35 engines (instead of 4 PS90 engines).

    However the long range version of the MC-21-400 will be able to take care several intercontinental flights, at least those around 9 hours, but it needs engine more powerful than the baseline PD-14 (possibly a PD18R or an eventual PD-20).

    P.S. let's forget the NK-93, eventual good lessons learnt on that prototype could be applied to other engines. Currently the safest approach would be probably a more powerful geared version of the PD-14 with a larger fan (the PD-18R)
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    Post  nero Sun Mar 13, 2022 12:56 am

    limb wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:I would just start selling those excess jets to other countries.  Reduce the amount of these jets and look at more localized production.  I agree with ISOS on brining back the Tu-204 and what not designs.
    Do russian aircraft factories have the ability to produce them in high double digit numbers per year? Also what about intercontinental widebodies? Does thsi mean that the PD-35 will be ready earlier? Can russians produce carbon composites in very large quantities?

    From 2012 to 2020 they've produced an average of 21.6 SSJ-100 per year, though it is unknown how large the deliveries can be after France sanctioned engine parts. Irkut MC-21 is likely to enter into production in 2022 and start deliveries in 2025. Tu-204 production quantities are irrelevant.

    They'll either need to lease in the short term or allow foreign operators to do domestic flights. They really should figure out a joint-venture with China to produce their civil aviation though as I doubt that they'll be able to build a lot of them domestically.
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    Post  kvs Sun Mar 13, 2022 1:59 am

    Autodestruct wrote:
    Isn't it time to bring back the NK-93 engine? But make it electric this time with the SuperOx's help. Wasn't it even considered very promising even by biased russophobic Western opinions?

    NK-93 had a lot wrong with it.  That's why nobody wanted to fork over money to bring it to market.  I'm sure the problems with reliability (and the lack of instrumentation that would allow for condition based maintenance) could be addressed.  But that takes time.  So the NK-93 is not something that can quickly be materialized.  And it likely isn't even worth fooling with now.

    The problem is that the people involved in the project are basically no longer available. It was not a garbage concept and should have been
    brought to completion. But it f*ed over by the 1990s. The PD program has replaced it and will be completed. I do not see an urgent need
    for a new variant of the NK-93 to be developed now.

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