LMFS wrote:A bold statement. The plane is already outdated, they are upgrading the avionics with the 400M and then you could change engines and wing. What is the big problem with the fuselage?
There is no problem with the fuselage. It's just an old design and all the more so would be by 2026. Compare it to its competitors - the A350, Boeing 787 and CR929
To say aerospace engineering works like SW is also bold
It's all engineering, many of the principles carry over
As far as I know, that is not how the program is set up. I am sure Russians are fighting for their rights, but the way Chinese are defending their own interests tells me they see themselves as the senior partner in the project, going long term. Which makes sense, since they will be (by far) the bigger market for the plane.
Airliners of this class are a privilege of very few manufacturers in the world. And aside from the US with its Boeing 787 (and even that one had Russian design input and titanium sections), no-one is going it alone. France-Germany with their Airbus A350, and China-Russia with their CR929. There's no shame in sharing.
Chinese are not a NGO, they go for the money and for the seniority, why would they keep draining money to Russia and making the plane more expensive with the long range transport of parts, once they have mastered the technologies they are after, namely high thrust engines and production of composite wings?
The same goes for Russia too. If the project is a JV, then the parties respective ownership and responsibilities will be defined and protected.
They are no idiots, neither are the Russians, that is why they have not abandoned the Il-96. That B plan being in place, the Chinese will have more incentive to compromise. The current unity of purpose (to defeat the Western influence) gets them in line at a strategic level, once that threat is not present anymore, the leadership of both countries may not see it necessary to interfere in the market interests of their companies for the sake of common understanding at a higher level.
That threat is going to be present for quite a while and it doesn't make sense to refuse such a project on the basis of maybe's.
I could ask why to do that, when they already have a Russian plane like the Il-96? Exchanging systems on a plane is not cheap or fast, and in this case it would be also all the fuselage that would need to be produced in Russia, with the huge design, certification and production effort involved, even if allowed by the IP regulations of the contract. And it would improve essentially nothing or very little, just result in a knockoff that could only be used internally but probably not sold abroad if infringing on the contract, while designing a composite wing for the Il-96 would massively raise the value of a fully legal Russian product that can be sold anywhere.
Could be that by taking part in this project, Russia will in the future be able to come up with something much better than the Il-96-400M, if it wants to
But again, why go it alone. The biggest market is in China anyway, they know that, and have their own conditions. Has it occurred to you that Russian producers of engines, avionics, components, etc... are looking at this as a way to grab a huge slice of that market?
Of course they can, Western manufacturers are much more expensive and rely mainly in the privileges of their parent countries. Once those are eroded in the coming years, countries will be more inclined to buying other equipment and one of the main candidates then will be Russia, unless they outsource all their knowledge and industrial based to China.
If Russia had the capability to produce an ultra-modern design to rival Airbus's and Boeing's latest efforts, then it would have done so by now
I mean yes in theory it could do it. In practice though the Superjet has suffered export challenges, the smaller MS-21 is not out yet.. what makes you so confident of Russia's success on the world market?
The CR929 is not an assured win either, but at the very least it's China orders alone will be enough to turn a large profit. It's splitting the risks, it's a win-win for Russia.
That is interesting, because why to enlarge the plane 10 m for the president, when they have the Il-96-300 and they are still producing it?
Well whoever it is that needs it then
I can tell you though that the commercial airlines don't need it though or its 4 engine configuration
The same "reasonable" narratives we heard in the West from the people that destroyed our industry, the road to hell is indeed paved with good intentions and nice words. To turn into one of many potential parts suppliers to China instead of building and selling your planes yourself makes no sense for the Russian industry. Production is planned in China, main market is China as well as most suppliers and not even the PD-35 is the single engine option, those are not strong cards for Russia in the program. IMHO they should deliver the parts to China and cash their ToT while it works, but have their own plane and industry ready for the moment China sees themselves capable of going solo.
No it's just about making sense and not throwing billions away on dubious projects. Russia is now doubting the need for the Lider program. Good, it's not a priority either
Does Russia need a capability to produce destroyers? Sure, but it's not a priority.
As for large widebody airliners, Russia is having trouble with smaller classes still, and I don't see this deal as giving away Russia's capability. What, Russia looses the ability to wield a fuselage? This particular aircraft class is just going to be produced in China, that's all. Maybe future ones will be too. The engines, probably some wing sections and other key systems are still going to be Russian-made though, it would still yield a ton of experience for everyone involved.
China may eventually decide to go it alone. I get the sense that they are interested in splitting the risks too and getting a 2nd perspective on board from somebody who has actually produced this class of civil aircraft before.
But let's say they do decide to go it alone. By participating, Russia will still emerge from this project stronger and more experienced then they were before.