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    European gas market

    kvs
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    Post  kvs Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:32 pm

    nero wrote:
    kvs wrote:If Germany was serious about green power it would not be shutting down nuclear power plants but would be building new
    ones based on fast neutron breeder designs.
    Nuclear power is a political problem in Germany and will never happen.

    That is not an excuse. It is mental retardation.

    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:01 pm

    kvs wrote:The western elites make sure to assrape the western public.   "Green" energy is a racket that you will be paying for with both
    your taxes and when you buy your heating and electricity.   Since energy is a foundational input into the economy, the price
    impacts every other price in the economy.   This is not just inflation, it is actual cost.

    Only when the inflation finally catches us after being shown as cheaters, there will be not enough money in our pockets for the level of prices which is structural to our rotten economies. We are fucked up, badly. That is why are being trained since few years already about the charm of riding bicycles, sharing a 30 sqm flat with some multiculti troupe and eating bugs. After forced vaccination and savage lockdowns, next will be our credit cards limiting the CO2 footrpint we are allowed, we are really close to be handled literally like cattle in this land of freedom and moral values censored censored censored censored

    If Germany was serious about green power it would not be shutting down nuclear power plants but would be building new
    ones based on fast neutron breeder designs.

    That is difficult to deny, the only serious problem IMHO being the intrinsic value of NPPs as war targets, at least for countries without proper AD. But fast neutron technology should solve most of the other issues actually...
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    Post  kvs Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:42 am

    If we are talking about a nuclear war, then radiation from breeder reactors is a non-issue.   Unlike water cooled old style reactors
    they do not melt down and undergo hydrogen explosions.   A direct nuclear blast would have to vapourize the reactor to spread
    the radiation.   But that radiation would not coat Germany or any other host country with a layer of reactor contents, it would
    be a localized event with some downstream fallout like Chernobyl and Fukushima.   The phobia of radiation paralyzes people's
    brains and they cannot think rationally.  

    Green energy has had 40 years to prove itself as a viable alternative.   But it is 2021 and it is still a boutique side show that
    only formed because of massive subsidies.   Everywhere this "panacea" is touted it shuts down deployment as soon as the
    subsidies are removed.    U-rope is barking mad at Gazprom long before it has even deployed a critical mass of green energy
    infrastructure.   Maybe if it was 2050 and U-rope had successfully transitioned to windmills and solar (good luck), then posturing
    at Russia would make sense.   But in the real world Germany is getting 27% of its electricity from burning coal.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Germany

    Note the games with definitions.   The pie chart is total BS.   Renewables account for less than 20% of Germany's energy use.
    The coal totals are fake and the wind fraction is inflated.   They must be using peak and not sustained power.   No windmill
    farm produces at its nominal installed capacity.   GTFO.
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    Post  LMFS Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:56 am

    kvs wrote:If we are talking about a nuclear war, then radiation from breeder reactors is a non-issue.   Unlike water cooled old style reactors
    they do not melt down and undergo hydrogen explosions.   A direct nuclear blast would have to vapourize the reactor to spread
    the radiation.   But that radiation would not coat Germany or any other host country with a layer of reactor contents, it would
    be a localized event with some downstream fallout like Chernobyl and Fukushima.   The phobia of radiation paralyzes people's
    brains and they cannot think rationally.

    I refer to the fact that a traditional reactor, even attacked conventionally, can be leaking very dangerous and essentially uncontrollable radiation, turning the country in hostage of their NPPs even in relatively low intensity conflicts. For a country like Russia the severity of this risk is much lower because of size, habit of taking care of national security and AD network. For smaller countries, this can be a significant risk. I am not aware of the radiation profile of the breeder reactors, if they also allow to address that issue, then they are a no brainer.

    Green energy has had 40 years to prove itself as a viable alternative.   But it is 2021 and it is still a boutique side show that
    only formed because of massive subsidies.   Everywhere this "panacea" is touted it shuts down deployment as soon as the
    subsidies are removed.
     

    In fact there are many places where they compete quite ok with conventional, but I get what you mean.  

    U-rope is barking mad at Gazprom long before it has even deployed a critical mass of green energy
    infrastructure.   Maybe if it was 2050 and U-rope had successfully transitioned to windmills and solar (good luck), then posturing
    at Russia would make sense.   But in the real world Germany is getting 27% of its electricity from burning coal.

    That is the key of the issue. Politicians are completely out of touch with reality, just take a look at the primary energy use, renewables account only for 12%... you cannot seriously think of decoupling from hydrocarbons at that stage, unless you are freakin mental.

    Note the games with definitions.   The pie chart is total BS.   Renewables account for less than 20% of Germany's energy use.
    The coal totals are fake and the wind fraction is inflated.   They must be using peak and not sustained power.   No windmill
    farm produces at its nominal installed capacity.   GTFO.

    I have not checked that data, but in principle it does not come across as obviously false. Installed wind power in Germany is insane (61GW in 2019), and PV too (50 GW in 2019). It takes LOTS of installed power to generate 10% of the electricity with solar in a country with the irradiation characteristics of Germany, with a very poor capacity factor of 11%. For wind the capacity factor is better but still not even close to a NPP, with 24%. The investment needed is very high, in the long run there is no fuel expense, but the CAPEX to transition fully to renewables is quite insane. Without cheap money things get complicated. Still, as said above, they are not even close to significantly reducing the use of primary energy. EVs are way more efficient and all, but the whole transition is still several decades away from being completed and spitting in the face of Russia now is simply suicidal
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    Post  GarryB Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am

    It makes sense for Russia to go to breeder reactors but they should not build them for anyone else... let the export customers allow Russia to take away their spent fuel rods.... for a charge of course and to then supply enriched fuel rods to replace the spent rods.... that way the system is closed... no waste needing to be buried, but Russia controls it and makes all the money...

    Of course in addition to that they can use their own nuclear power to process water and create hydrogen without using carbon based emitting energy so it is clean green hydrogen that they can pump to the EU or Asia using current upgraded pipes...
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    Post  ALAMO Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:09 pm

    I have heard a quite interesting comment from Russian talking heads, but the ones that know the shit.
    It was something like: if there is anyone who should earn the money for Russian resources transit, it should be a friend, not a foe.
    That was a comment towards Power of Siberia 2, and, in a wider perspective, Mongolia.
    I will remind you, that tiny Mongolia, with only 4 million people, is one of the closest Russian allies for 100 years.
    They fought hand by hand several times in history.
    In the time of WW2, they voluntarily supplied both men and materials.
    Mongols funded&manned a tank battalion, and fighter squadron.
    The newly elected Mongolian president already visited Moscow for his very first abroad trip.
    That all combined is another indirect proof, that Russia reorients itself towards East, and we witness the beginning of the process only.
    It will be followed by the newly established Siberian metropolis, new communication grid, transportation hubs etc.
    It took 20 years for the West to prove, that they will never accept Russa as an equal.
    Let's see how fast it will take Russkies to show them the very same ...

    What makes me wonder, is how this tiny nation will use the huge assets from the transit fees. That would be billions of euros each year, something that can be a real life change for them. Amazing.

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    Karl Haushofer


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    Post  Karl Haushofer Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:17 pm

    ALAMO wrote:I have heard a quite interesting comment from Russian talking heads, but the ones that know the shit.
    It was something like: if there is anyone who should earn the money for Russian resources transit, it should be a friend, not a foe.
    That was a comment towards Power of Siberia 2, and, in a wider perspective, Mongolia.
    I will remind you, that tiny Mongolia, with only 4 million people, is one of the closest Russian allies for 100 years.
    They fought hand by hand several times in history.
    In the time of WW2, they voluntarily supplied both men and materials.
    Mongols funded&manned a tank battalion, and fighter squadron.
    The newly elected Mongolian president already visited Moscow for his very first abroad trip.
    That all combined is another indirect proof, that Russia reorients itself towards East, and we witness the beginning of the process only.
    It will be followed by the newly established Siberian metropolis, new communication grid, transportation hubs etc.
    It took 20 years for the West to prove, that they will never accept Russa as an equal.
    Let's see how fast it will take Russkies to show them the very same ...

    What makes me wonder, is how this tiny nation will use the huge assets from the transit fees. That would be billions of euros each year, something that can be a real life change for them. Amazing.

    If there is one country that I would like to see receiving transit fees it would probably be Mongolia. Better them than haters like Ukraine and Poland.

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    Post  owais.usmani Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:33 pm



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    Post  kvs Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:54 pm

    So what are the EU-tards bitching about. The LNG tanker in the video demonstrates that the spot market price has finally reached a level
    where supply starts to appear on the EU-tard market. Obviously the price before was too low. But these hater f*cks demand
    that Gazprom ship them more gas at substantially lower prices than the spot market price.

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    European gas market - Page 3 Empty Europe hopes in vain for American LNG, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 22.12.2021.

    Post  Kiko Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:38 pm

    Europe hopes in vain for American LNG, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 22.12.2021.

    American liquefied natural gas looks like the saviour of Europe from the aggravation of the gas crisis. This is how the EU viewed the news that US LNG tankers unexpectedly turned around on their way to Asia and headed for Europe. On the other hand, they are trying to blame Gazprom for the record rise in gas prices in the EU due to the reduction in supplies through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. But in reality, the situation is exactly the opposite.

    American LNG tankers bound for Asia are turning around and heading to Europe to cash in on rising gas prices there, Western media reported. The day before, European gas prices jumped to a historic record $ 2,150 per thousand cubic meters, or € 182 per megawatt-hour. According to Platts, the difference between European and Asian prices is currently the largest on record.

    Gazprom is called the culprit of the rise in prices. Because it stopped gas supplies to Germany via Yamal-Europe on December 21 and 22, and booked small volumes of transit for January along this route. On this news, prices in Europe and soared to unprecedented heights.

    However, on the news that the American LNG decided to "save" the European market in such a difficult situation, gas prices in Europe dropped in the morning to $ 1,900 per thousand cubic meters. But after lunch they grew again and exceeded $ 2050 per thousand cubic meters.

    In fact, neither Gazprom is the culprit in the rise in gas prices, nor is the American LNG the saviour of European markets from fuel shortages.

    On the eve the head of the company "Operator GTS of Ukraine" Sergei Makogon accused Gazprom of gas blackmailing Europe "with the aim of the earliest certification of" Nord Stream - 2 ". EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Josep Borrell pointed out that this is what "many believe". Ukrainian Naftogaz went further and on Wednesday filed a complaint with the European Commission, in which it asked to oblige Gazprom to put up for sale through an electronic platform significant volumes of gas for delivery on the Ukrainian-Russian border. They assure that Gazprom deliberately reduced the sale of its own gas in the European spot market, despite the growing demand, and limits the ability of other companies to supply additional volumes of gas to Europe and compete with Gazprom. “This is precisely the key reason for the crisis and record price increases in Europe".

    Ukraine's demands are ridiculous. Gazprom can only be obliged to supply certain volumes within the framework of long-term contracts. And the spot market is free trade in short-term gas volumes. Gazprom fulfills all of its contractual obligations, but it is not obliged to sell on the spot market. But the problem is different - European buyers themselves do not want to buy expensive gas there. They prefer to take all the contracted gas and get it from underground storage facilities.

    American LNG is also not suitable for the role of Europe's rescuer in a difficult crisis situation.

    First, gas carriers with American LNG went to Europe only when the spot price there turned out to be higher than in Europe. Where was the American LNG all summer, fall and early winter? He ignored the problems of the European gas market and went to Asia. Because this is a commercial business, not a charity, and it was more profitable for American gas traders. The Asian gas market is traditionally a premium in relation to the European one, that is, prices are higher there. In rare situations that usually coincide with gas crises, European prices find themselves at Asian levels. And some suppliers believe they can save on gas deliveries to Europe because the route is shorter.

    “Shipping LNG from factories in the US to Europe can cost an additional dollar per thousand British thermal units, and to Asia - $ 1.5-2. In addition, when delivering to Europe, empty mileage is reduced, that is, the time and cost of sending back an empty LNG carrier. Why bring it to Asia, if in Europe you can sell a batch for the same money, but quickly drive the gas carrier back for a new batch of fuel”, says Alexander Frolov, deputy director of the Russian Institute of National Energy.

    Spot LNG shipments to Europe were estimated at around $ 48.5 per million Btu, compared with $ 41 per million BTU in Asia, according to Platts. In October and November, prices in Asia averaged $ 5 per million BTUs compared to prices in Europe, the brokerage said.

    The second important point is that there is no data on the mass turnover of gas carriers from Asia to Europe. Western media cite only two cases when tankers with American LNG did this and one case - with the turn of Australian LNG.

    In the first case, the American LNG tanker Minerva Chios was heading east near India, but turned around and headed for the Suez Canal, prompting speculation about its route to Europe. A second US LNG vessel deployed off the Strait of Malacca last week, and a third vessel is due to deliver the remainder of the Australian LNG shipment to Barcelona on December 24 (after most of the shipment was shipped to China earlier this month).

    The third point is that it is precisely the departure of American and other LNG from Europe to Asia in 2021 that is one of the main reasons for the formation of a gas shortage in the European market. This happened precisely because Europeans rarely signed long-term contracts for the supply of LNG. The volumes of this gas mainly circulated in the European spot market, which Brussels itself created and cherished.

    In addition, Asian consumers prefer to sign long-term oil-linked gas supply contracts, Frolov said. Thus, Asia secured itself against what Europe faced this year - from LNG leaving the spot market, provoking shortages and rising prices. Therefore, tankers can only be deployed with the LNG that was transported for sale on the spot market.

    “There is no new trend that American LNG is returning from Asia to Europe. The Asian market accounts for three quarters of all LNG supplies in the world, while Europe and the rest of the world share the remaining one quarter of supplies”, says Alexander Frolov.

    “Of course, if prices in Europe rise even higher, then those volumes of gas that are not protected in Asia by long-term oil-pegged contracts may turn around and come to the European spot market. The problem is that Asia also needs this gas, which means that prices there will also go up. Further, a race for survival between the European and Asian gas markets may begin. But I don’t think this is possible in this situation, ”the source continues.

    Actually, the morning drop in gas prices on the futures market on Wednesday can be explained by the news about American LNG going to Europe. Investors in the futures market, who do not always understand in detail the intricacies of the energy markets, regarded this as a trend that American LNG will now save Europe from the gas crisis, so it is necessary to sell futures contracts.

    However, the reversal of prices back to growth in the afternoon suggests that investors in the futures market have deciphered the real state of affairs with the returning LNG. They were told that this is not a mass phenomenon, but a one-time event.

    “Investors in the futures market are most often quasi-players in the gas market. They do not calculate what volumes are actually going to Europe, whether these volumes will be able to meet the demand on the domestic market. They do not even think about what demand is in general on the domestic market. And the demand for gas in the EU during the second half of 2021 was actively decreasing due to the substitution of coal for gas in electricity generation. Simply because coal is cheaper than gas, ”says Alexander Frolov.

    It should be understood that when the media talk about the rise in gas prices in Europe, then, as a rule, it is not about the spot market, but about the futures market.

    “Futures contracts reflect the worrying anticipation of a dramatic future that the participants in the EU gas market are experiencing. In the futures market, paper volumes are traded, people make money on financial instruments. And on the spot market, it is supposed to trade in physical goods, where gas immediately changes its owner. In the spot market, prices are slightly lower than in the futures market, but, of course, they also grow strongly. Any news can influence the movement of futures. Yesterday - this is a decrease in transit through Yamal-Europe, today - it is a turn of LNG tankers from Asia to Europe, and tomorrow the Kremlin may announce an increase in Russian gas supplies, and prices on the futures market will immediately begin to fall. This is a normal situation”, says Frolov.

    According to him, a number of things are incorrectly broadcast in the information field of the West in order to divert responsibility from the people who are actually responsible for the difficult situation in the European energy sector.

    The real reasons for the aggravation of the gas crisis in Europe are now not Gazprom, but, firstly, the reduction in electricity production at nuclear power plants in France, as well as at wind farms in Germany and in Europe as a whole. Secondly, the expectation of cold weather. “How Germany and France, and Europe in general, will cope with this weather is not clear. Instinctively, all market participants understand only one thing: they need more energy carriers. That is why the futures market reacts so sharply to all news about gas supplies", the source concludes.

    https://m.vz.ru/economy/2021/12/22/1135585.html

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    Post  George1 Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:35 pm



    Putin claimed that Russia is not the only supplier of gas, but is the only one that increased the amount. Commenting on the West's decision to use the market to ‘regulate things’, said ‘you want it - you have it’

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    Post  owais.usmani Fri Dec 24, 2021 7:13 am


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    Post  owais.usmani Fri Dec 24, 2021 7:19 am

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    Post  kvs Fri Dec 24, 2021 7:26 am

    Good for them. The con will only work if Gazprom folds. If Gazprom keeps fulfilling the contracts, the price will stay up in
    the long run. This flotilla will not drive the price down to $40 per thousand m3.

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    Post  LMFS Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:11 pm

    A region like EU that is being raped by the US and still cheers them as their saviours really has no future other than sinking further. Embarassed

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:00 pm

    LMFS wrote:A region like EU that is being raped by the US and still cheers them as their saviours really has no future other than sinking further. Embarassed

    That is because it is the US style of rape, as per the end of WW2. It comes with a piece of chocolate as a present.


    kvs wrote:Good for them. The con will only work if Gazprom folds. If Gazprom keeps fulfilling the contracts, the price will stay up in
    the long run. This flotilla will not drive the price down to $40 per thousand m3.

    I suspect that if the price drops more than a few $ the ships will be back on their way to the Far East.

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    Post  Krepost Fri Dec 24, 2021 10:41 pm

    LMFS wrote:A region like EU that is being raped by the US and still cheers them as their saviours really has no future other than sinking further. Embarassed

    /\ /\ /\
    Quote of the day.

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    Post  ALAMO Sat Dec 25, 2021 9:25 am

    It is called the Stockholm syndrome.
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    Post  par far Sat Dec 25, 2021 4:19 pm


    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sat Dec 25, 2021 6:24 pm



    Spot market gas prices have dropped to $1200 per thousand cubic meters because the wind has started blowing.
    Yes, really.   So Gazprom is supposed to trade its gas on some kangaroo "market" where all sorts of BS factors are
    invoked to drive the price.   Since when are a collection of futures traders God appointed arbiters of Russia's
    gas price?   Gazprom sets the price and nobody else.   That is what my local grocer does.   There is not spot
    market for the can of tuna that I buy.   I go in and there is a price sticker and a I am free to shop elsewhere if
    I do not like the price.   By contrast, EU-tardia wants to do the equivalent of going into a shop and telling the
    owner what price it will pay for his wares.   This is not haggling, this is robbery.

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    Post  kvs Sat Dec 25, 2021 9:47 pm

    The video also discusses how the UK mass media is attributing the gas price "crisis" exclusively to Russians.
    The fact that some wind and LNG tankers can dial the spot "market" price like there is no tomorrow is not
    a factor, only Gazprom using Ukrian transit is. Above we had downvotes by morons who think that the UK
    mass media coverage of Russia is balanced. It is foaming at the mouth hate hysteria. Zero effort to even
    try to present some facts. As if Russia is obliged to lower prices for its avowed enemies because they want
    it. This is nothing but imperial capriciousness. Shove it up your collective asses, clowns, Russia is not your
    colony.

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    Post  GarryB Sun Dec 26, 2021 7:45 am

    The thing is that the EU plan is to wait for the price to drop and then buy up big and fill their storage capacity so when the price goes up again they can use their cheap storage gas to ride out when the prices go up again or buy US gas.

    The problem for them is that spot market prices will go up faster than they will go down and Russia has the luxury of not selling when the price is very low... they can fill their own storage areas in Europe when the price is low and then wait for the demand to drive up the price to then sell for higher prices.

    Spot prices will never be as low as long term contract prices.... just by definition the stability of a long term contract means the seller will give up peak prices for the stability of a regular and stable income, but for the customer relying on market forces to control the price means volatility which is never good for prices... all the more so that when the price is very low the seller simply wont sell anything at very low prices.

    Someone selling the furniture of an estate for someone who has died just wants a quick buck so you can get a lounge suite for a few hundred dollars... but they just want to get rid of the stuff so they don't have the costs of taking it to the rubbish tip.

    When it comes to selling gas/energy when the price drops to where it is not making money they just withdraw the product from the market and just wait till the value picks up again.

    Russia does not have to sell its product at a loss... it simply does not make sense to even consider that.
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    European gas market - Page 3 Empty Gazprom continues to provide European consumers with reliable gas supplies via various routes, including the one traversing Ukraine.

    Post  owais.usmani Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:36 am

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    Post  kvs Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:45 pm

    That is not enough. They should be calling for immediate certification. There is no "dispute" over NS2, there is just
    what amounts to self mutilation to appease Uncle Scumbag. The German media is a total whore for Washington and
    the German regime is repressing independent media like RT.

    Germany needs to feel the pain of its own idiocy. And Russia must make sure that it does.

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    Post  kvs Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:36 pm

    Ukrainian gas scam

    Ukraine uncovered a multi-year scam with the "reverse" of Russian gas from Europe

    In order to carry out a grandiose scam, Ukraine opened a company - "laying" in Europe, which allegedly engaged in reverse engineering, acting as a fictitious intermediary between the Russian Federation and the EU, but in fact siphoned off a lot of money, receiving kickbacks on gas supplies. The" income "of the fake company was from $ 100 for every thousand cubic meters of Russian gas released under the "scheme". And on the border of Hungary and Ukraine, a gas bridge was made to drive some volumes of raw materials around for reporting purposes.

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      Current date/time is Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:35 am