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    Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan Nile dam dispute:

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    mnztr

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    Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan Nile dam dispute: Empty Sudan SU-35 deal ...

    Post  mnztr Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:58 pm

    https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/11/20/Sudan-recieves-Russian-fighters-ahead-of-Bashir-s-first-visit-to-Moscow.html


    Wow I had no idea Sudan purchased SU-35's. Anyone know what quantity? There is a large water dispute going on between Egypt, Sudan and Ethopia and I guess Sudan wants to ensure Egypt does not launch an air strike across its territory to blow up the Ethopian dam potentially causing a massive flood in Sudan... Perhap Russia agreed to do this as they want to prevent a war and assist with the issue?
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:11 pm

    They can't stop Egypt destroying the dam.

    I doubt they would get su-35. That's a complexe fighter that need pilots very well trained.

    They can always ask for a less sophisticated fighter like su-30m2.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan Nile dam dispute: Empty Re: Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan Nile dam dispute:

    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:51 pm

    Isos wrote:They can't stop Egypt destroying the dam.

    I doubt they would get su-35. That's a complexe fighter that need pilots very well trained.

    They can always ask for a less sophisticated fighter like su-30m2.

    Destroying the dam would be a diplomatic disaster of the highest order. Only NATO can get away with destroying/bombing civilian infrastructure with out any world-wide outcry.
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    Post  mnztr Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:00 pm

    The dam is an existential threat to Egypt. If Ethopia does not come up with a fair and reasonable plan, you can bet Egypt will strike. The dam can be a good thing for the entire region, but if they do not cooperate it will be a disaster. Egypt should start building some reservoirs, and also they should agree that Ethopia can take more water during heavy rains and none during drought. Egypt should also invest in making their agriculture more water efficient and changing some mix of crops.
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    Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan Nile dam dispute: Empty Re: Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan Nile dam dispute:

    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:16 pm

    mnztr wrote:The dam is an existential threat to Egypt. If Ethopia does not come up with a fair and reasonable plan, you can bet Egypt will strike. The dam can be a good thing for the entire region, but if they do not cooperate it will be a disaster. Egypt should start building some reservoirs, and also they should agree that Ethopia can take more water during heavy rains and none during drought. Egypt should also invest in making their agriculture more water efficient and changing some mix of crops.

    If I recall right Egypt allied with Britain to have greater share of water rights which lead to famines and droughts in Ethiopia. Egypt allied with Britain, let that sink in...it's former colonizer which later allied with France and Israel to attack Egypt. The British are notorious for pitting different ethnic groups against each other. It doesn't matter what you think, if they attack the 'civilian' dam, it'll be diplomatic quagmire of the highest order, the African Union is based Addis Ababa btw. You wan't Ethiopia to cooperate when Egypt was the only veto power in the 1929 Nile Water Agreement, and sole water rights in 1959. They didn't want to cooperate back then, so this is the result.

    https://www.internationalwaterlaw.org/documents/regionaldocs/UAR_Sudan1959_and_Protocol1960.pdf
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    Post  mnztr Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:24 pm

    All three need to cooperate, but Ethopia seems quite belligerant considering it is massively outgunned by both Sudan and Egypt. If they start filling aggressively without an agreement I think Egypt will strike. Its too dangerous to strike once there is a lake. Britain attacked Egypt because of the Suez Canal. While I agree with Ethopia that the agreement should be void ,there are certain realities and they cannot ignore the fact that Egypt is dependant on this water as is Sudan. If they cannot cooperate it will be war and Ethopia cannot really win.
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    Post  mnztr Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:27 pm

    BTW the new reports say Sudan already has taken delivery of the SU-35 is this true?
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    Post  Isos Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:13 pm

    Destroying the dam would be a diplomatic disaster of the highest order. Only NATO can get away with destroying/bombing civilian infrastructure with out any world-wide outcry.

    War for water will happen often. In Syria US and Turkey destroyed water supply for thousabds of civilians.

    I doubt anyone will go against Egypt for that and support Ethiopia. The Suez canal is too important for all the countries of the world and Egypt can threaten them to increasy paytoll or forbid them to use it. Ethipia is, and sorry for the expression, a shithole.

    Back on the topic, I heard no news about Sudan buying the su35 or sending pilots for trening or taking delivery. Egyptian su-35 were spotted on satelittes images so would also be the case for Sudanese ones if they existed.
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    Post  crod Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:25 am

    Strange how a country that receives billions in aid every year finds the money for fighter jets.
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    Post  GarryB Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:33 am

    I doubt anyone will go against Egypt for that and support Ethiopia. The Suez canal is too important for all the countries of the world and Egypt can threaten them to increasy paytoll or forbid them to use it. Ethipia is, and sorry for the expression, a shithole.

    Would not take much for Ethiopia to buy 5,000 tons of HE and put it on a ship and send it through the Suez Canal under the flag of another country and they could blow it up somewhere that will block the canal for a long time.

    Shitholes don't have rights?

    If might means right then the fucken stupid and psychotic will rule.

    Strange how a country that receives billions in aid every year finds the money for fighter jets.

    Western aide rarely helps the country it is for, and usually comes with strings attached that ensure western companies can enter their markets and make big money exploiting a cheap expendable work force...

    US military aide needs to be spent on US weapons which are expensive so you don't get much... you don't really own what you get... it is just a kickback to their own MIC usually.

    Food aide destroys the livelyhood of local farmers... how can someone selling food compete with free food... essentially it is not long before they lose their farm and can't afford to buy seed and have to beg for food or get free food from foreigners too... in the mean time foreigners can buy up land and make some money because they can export it to places where food isn't free and make money... and even free food is not free.

    Sorry dude... not personal... but it does piss me off when people suggest poor countries shouldn't be allowed things... the first thing anyone needs is somewhere to live and that needs good deadbolt locks most of the time no matter how poor you are.... it doesn't matter how little you have... someone will always try to steal it... ask Yemen and Afghanistan...
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    Post  crod Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:44 am

    No offence taken but I would argue a lot of countries, Ireland being one that provides no strings attached money. Not all aid comes with a price tag and suggest otherwise is plain incorrect, even your native NZ does this and I know this first hand from a previous job.
    We could talk about India where it spends billions on a space program but yet large sections of its people are in dire poverty. Granted India doesn’t receive foreign aid but it’s another example of a country spending $$$ incorrectly.
    Sudan can not afford these type of jets, hell ireland can’t even afford them (and has none) but it provided millions every year to a country that wants to buy very expensive products.
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    Post  Isos Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:03 am

    Would not take much for Ethiopia to buy 5,000 tons of HE and put it on a ship and send it through the Suez Canal under the flag of another country and they could blow it up somewhere that will block the canal for a long time.

    Shitholes don't have rights?

    If might means right then the fucken stupid and psychotic will rule.

    That would hurt world and they would become a terrorist country that needs to be pacified with US bombs.

    It's the powerful that imposes its rules... I don't agree with this but it's the reality.
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    Post  GarryB Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:14 pm

    No offence taken but I would argue a lot of countries, Ireland being one that provides no strings attached money. Not all aid comes with a price tag and suggest otherwise is plain incorrect, even your native NZ does this and I know this first hand from a previous job.

    You are quite right, but does your generosity give you the power to dictate to those you help?

    Some guy on the side of the road who looks homeless... you flick him a dollar or two because it is just jangling in your pocket making noise... you don't need that coffee this morning, but he might be able to get a cup of soup or something... then later you see him in the pub at a slot machine putting your coins into that machine... do you demand the money back? Do you get all shitty with him... after all after you give him money does he need your permission regarding what he uses it for?

    Most poor people gamble... a chance to hope you might be a winner for a change... a chance to double or triple your money.... after all easy come easy go...

    It might all disappear into the machine or he might win a lot of money... obviously the former is much more likely but why do you think you have a say?

    If you don't want him to waste it buy him a cup of soup... or just keep your money like 99% of the rest of the population...

    We could talk about India where it spends billions on a space program but yet large sections of its people are in dire poverty. Granted India doesn’t receive foreign aid but it’s another example of a country spending $$$ incorrectly.

    The US has the most money and pisses the most money away at the same time, perhaps when rich countries get their shit in order they can start preaching... but we have shit loads to fix before we have any moral authority... that does not stop the west from preaching though does it?

    Who is to say their space programme doesn't create high tech jobs that attracts Indians overseas to come back and bring their skills with them.

    There is poverty everywhere you look even in the biggest cities...

    Sudan can not afford these type of jets, hell ireland can’t even afford them (and has none) but it provided millions every year to a country that wants to buy very expensive products.

    Perhaps if Egypt threatened to bomb their farms and water supply system they might think about developing an Air Defence capability too?

    It is not just about the planes anyway... it is about getting the ear of Russia... most countries in the region have noticed Russia can negotiate with all sorts of countries in the region... it is not all peace and hugs, but Turkey is cooperating to an extent with Assad and Iran and Russia and Israel is largely behaving too... it misbehaved a couple of times and now it has paid for that with IADS helping the Syrians to much more effectively protect their own air space...

    That would hurt world and they would become a terrorist country that needs to be pacified with US bombs.

    Their main problems are droughts and water related... they have a solution for that which neighbouring countries are threatening... if Egypt attacks and destroys their dam then why should they not respond? It doesn't need to be 5,000 tons of HE... it could just be 500 tons and scuttle the ship when it reaches a critical lock with multiple booby traps designed to make moving it impossible... I mean it could be worse... they could just put poison in the river... you want it so bad... enjoy.

    They could do what the west did and just put the corpses of cattle killed in the flooding after the dam is destroyed into the river...

    It's the powerful that imposes its rules... I don't agree with this but it's the reality.

    Well sometimes when you are at the bottom with nothing and nothing to lose you do stupid reckless things... why care about anyone else if they don't care about you?

    And if they really did care about you then they should understand...

    That dam wont be free... they likely got a loan to build it and will be paying for it for years to come.... they are banking on that dam providing stable water supplies to their farms so they can boost their economy and develop... you might say it is out of spite and so what if it is... if Egypt is not going to be reasonable or fair by choice why shouldn't they do as they please as well... what right does any other country have to tell them what they can or cannot do?
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    Post  GarryB Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:20 pm

    BTW I would love to see them sort this all out peacefully by talking and being reasonable, but so far talking and being reasonable has clearly clearly not worked, so they are creating a lake and buying weapons.
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    Post  Isos Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:35 pm

    That dam isn't the only one that can lead to war between two countries. I guess if the world takes the side of one of them they will have to back the same side but for different countries and dams.

    Ethiopian have a lot to lose. As long as they are alive they have their life to lose. And poor people also like to be alive and are not going to sacrifice themselves for a stupid move like blocking the Suez canal.

    They better sit at the negociation table and do nothing until they reach an agreement with the concerned countries. Neither China or US or Russia or West will help them if a war happens.
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    Post  ahmedfire Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:20 pm


    Egypt is negotiating since years over this issue because we don't want a war .

    If you bombed the dam ,they would find a way to fix it or build another one in the future .

    Egypt doesn't reject building the dam in general but needs a fair deal to avoid affceting the amount of water which reach to Sudan and Egypt annually .Also to ensure how much the dam strong to face an earthquake which could happen in that area ,earthquake along with the pressure of 74 billion cubic meters of water could smash it down and Sudanese capital would sink under 6 meter of water and will affect the high dam in Egypt .

    Egypt raised the issue to security council because Ethiopians are delaying the negotiations so that they can finish the dam and start flling it .

    I hope they will reach to a deal , no one needs a war but 150 million people in Sudan and Egypt are depending on this water .

    That's why Egypt opened a huge base in Berenice south of the Red Sea.

    mnztr wrote: Egypt should start building some reservoirs

    Egypt has 168 billion cubic meter in Nasser lake behind the high dam .

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    Post  mnztr Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:03 am

    ahmedfire wrote:
    Egypt is negotiating since years over this issue because we don't want a war .

    If you bombed the dam ,they would find a way to fix it or build another one in the future .

    Egypt doesn't reject building the dam in general but needs a fair deal to avoid affceting the amount of water which reach to Sudan and Egypt annually .Also to ensure how much the dam strong to face an earthquake which could happen in that area ,earthquake along with the pressure of 74 billion cubic meters of water could smash it down and Sudanese capital would sink under 6 meter of water and will affect the high dam in Egypt .

    Egypt raised the issue to security council because Ethiopians are delaying the negotiations so that they can finish the dam and start flling it .

    I hope they will reach to a deal , no one needs a war but 150 million people in Sudan and Egypt are depending on this water .

    That's why Egypt opened a huge base in Berenice south of the Red Sea.

    mnztr wrote: Egypt should start building some reservoirs

    Egypt has 168 billion cubic meter in Nasser lake behind the high dam .


    Yes but lake Nassar is clearly not enough. Egypt has legitimate concerns, but I do not think these 3 can take the ego and emotion out of it. They really need external facilitators. The new dam can benefit all 3 I don't see why they cannot base it on maintaining lake Nassar at a certin range of levels based on certain annual outflows. if there is a drought the filling slows, heavy rains, it speeds up
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    Post  GarryB Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:16 am

    Egypt doesn't reject building the dam in general but needs a fair deal to avoid affceting the amount of water which reach to Sudan and Egypt annually .Also to ensure how much the dam strong to face an earthquake which could happen in that area ,earthquake along with the pressure of 74 billion cubic meters of water could smash it down and Sudanese capital would sink under 6 meter of water and will affect the high dam in Egypt .

    Clearly they do object to the dam otherwise why are they trying to get it built and filled in a rushed way...

    There is no such thing as an earthquake proof structure, but you can put structures down river to divert and break up the water front to minimise the damage if it should fail.

    Perhaps as a richer more powerful country you could invest and help your neighbour instead of threatening them and taking them to "court"... I would think better relations would be good for both countries...
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    Post  ahmedfire Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:50 pm

    Yes but lake Nassar is clearly not enough. Egypt has legitimate concerns, but I do not think these 3 can take the ego and emotion out of it. They really need external facilitators. The new dam can benefit all 3 I don't see why they cannot base it on maintaining lake Nassar at a certin range of levels based on certain annual outflows. if there is a drought the filling slows, heavy rains, it speeds up

    Because Ethiopians don't need anyone to tell them how or when to fill the lake behind the dam .


    There is no such thing as an earthquake proof structure, but you can put structures down river to divert and break up the water front to minimise the damage if it should fail.

    The technical studies should be done by a common engineering committee between the three countries to evaluate the geologic, hydraulic, and seismic design criteria and design criteria . Sudanese life also matters .

    Perhaps as a richer more powerful country you could invest and help your neighbour instead of threatening them and taking them to "court"... I would think better relations would be good for both countries...

    Egypt didn't threat them by a military action ,actually the negotiations is going on sine 9 years !

    Actually Egypt has helped Ethiopia alot before , by building hospitals and sending doctors , building power plants ,cultivation and construction projects .

    But Ethiopia always find a reason to withdraw ,they think the water is theirs and they are giving it as a gift to Sudan and Egypt .

    But 150 million people are depending on this water and the Egypt-Sudan requests are simple , we don't want a decrease in the flowing water .Sudan also complained them in the security council .

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    Post  JohninMK Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:22 pm

    The problem is caused in part by the reduced rate of flow out of Lake Victoria caused by an explosion of water hyacinth plants blocking the outflows of this, a major source of Nile water. There is a huge volume of water trapped there.

    Unblocking it seems to beyond the locals abilities. If the Egyptians put some effort into helping cure that problem the flow would increase allowing the new dam to be filled as planned without seriously impacting the flow downstream of it.

    https://www.kahawatungu.com/water-hyacinth-lake-victoria-rusts/
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    Post  GarryB Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:37 am

    The technical studies should be done by a common engineering committee between the three countries to evaluate the geologic, hydraulic, and seismic design criteria and design criteria . Sudanese life also matters .

    How can they expect all three countries to be fair.

    This is being done for the benefit of Ethiopians... they are paying for the dam to be built... perhaps if egypt and the sudan want a say in how it is used and how strong it is built they should offer to contribute to the cost of building the dam?

    But Ethiopia always find a reason to withdraw ,they think the water is theirs and they are giving it as a gift to Sudan and Egypt .

    Wouldn't be the first country to think like that... if they were rich and powerful they would get away with it...

    But 150 million people are depending on this water and the Egypt-Sudan requests are simple , we don't want a decrease in the flowing water .Sudan also complained them in the security council .

    Why don't you build your own extra dams... it would allow you more control of the flow of water... keep the dam closest to your neighbour very low so if there is a flooding incident you just get a new lake... having extra dams would allow you to control the flow of water through your country even when not much is coming... after the first flood of heavy rain you can fill up most of your dams so you have lake reserves you can use when it is dry so you don't have to rely on new water coming down the river...

    The problem is caused in part by the reduced rate of flow out of Lake Victoria caused by an explosion of water hyacinth plants blocking the outflows of this, a major source of Nile water. There is a huge volume of water trapped there.

    That shit is going to break off and float down river anyway so even if it isn't a problem now in Egyptian or Sudanese dams it will be... and you are going to have to deal with it at some stage... better now...
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    Post  JohninMK Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:08 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    That shit is going to break off and float down river anyway so even if it isn't a problem now in Egyptian or Sudanese dams it will be... and you are going to have to deal with it at some stage... better now...
    It appears not, or at least not in a big way. The plants are blocking the turbine tunnels and overflow sluices so that Lake Victoria is 13m above normal, causing problems all the way round it, flooding etc. Wouldn't have happened when there was a colonial power in charge Very Happy
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    Post  George1 Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:45 pm

    mnztr wrote:https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/11/20/Sudan-recieves-Russian-fighters-ahead-of-Bashir-s-first-visit-to-Moscow.html


    Wow I had no idea Sudan purchased SU-35's. Anyone know what quantity? There is a large water dispute going on between Egypt, Sudan and Ethopia and I guess Sudan wants to ensure Egypt does not launch an air strike across its territory to blow up the Ethopian dam potentially causing a massive flood in Sudan... Perhap Russia agreed to do this as they want to prevent a war and assist with the issue?

    its obviously a mistaken article. The only jets they purchased in last decade were su-24 fencers from Belarus in 2013-16
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    Post  GarryB Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:28 am

    Wouldn't have happened when there was a colonial power in charge

    Didn't Aristide say it was a colonial power that introduced the weed because they thought it looked pretty?

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    Post  ahmedfire Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:46 am

    This is being done for the benefit of Ethiopians... they are paying for the dam to be built... perhaps if egypt and the sudan want a say in how it is used and how strong it is built they should offer to contribute to the cost of building the dam?

    Egypt has offered to contribute in the construction of the dam .

    Also Egyptian companies are building a huge dam with cost of US$2.9 billion in Tanzania (part of the nile river is coming from there) .


    Wouldn't be the first country to think like that... if they were rich and powerful they would get away with it...

    Being rich and powerful don't give you the right to neglect the others even if this could hurt them .

    Turkey has built a dam which affected heavily the agriculture in Iraq ,around 70% of Iraq’s water supplies flow from neighboring countries, especially via the Tigris and Euphrates rivers which run through Turkey.

    Why don't you build your own extra dams... it would allow you more control of the flow of water... keep the dam closest to your neighbour very low so if there is a flooding incident you just get a new lake... having extra dams would allow you to control the flow of water through your country even when not much is coming... after the first flood of heavy rain you can fill up most of your dams so you have lake reserves you can use when it is dry so you don't have to rely on new water coming down the river...

    The high dam could reserve about 162 BCM of water and its surface area is around 6500 km2 ,also there is Toshka Project that can take the excess water behind the dam to the Toshka depression which can reserve 50 BCM .





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