nomadski Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:59 pm
Tony stark here. If report is genuine. Russia will not help defend Armenia. Then maybe because economic importance of Turkey / EU relationship far greater than Economic or strategic importance of little Armenia. They can still trade through Asia. Even if ongoing war in caucases. Without Dollar sanctions. Ukraine sanctions still remain.
But this is short termism. Leaving the problem for tomorrow. Iran however looses much more, if Turkey gains control over caucases. Stablishes a land and sea blockade against trade with Russia. And encourages separatism in Iran. So Iran much more likely to check Turkey moves against Armenia.
This leaves Europe. That I think will make noises, if Turkey removed Armenia. But because Turkey is NATO, and will put pressure on Iran and Russia. They will practically do nothing. Even if Armenia joins NATO. They will be sacrificial lamb. Like Cyprus.
So best plan is for Iran to support Armenia. But since Iran has big Azeri population, and they feel bad about occupation of some territory. Then Armenia could compromise, to appease them. Armenia can even join Iran as free state and ally. The economic interests of Armenia, will be served by Iran. Despite sanctions, Iran economy is doing relatively well, with positive growth. Iran needs them most.
But if Armenia joins NAZTO, and is thrown under a bus, to let Turkish troops pass. Then Iran will respond with force against them. This I am sure about. And nobody gains. Not Russians or Europeans or even Iranians. But I think even then, we will come on top.
Stark out.
Last edited by nomadski on Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:09 pm; edited 1 time in total