2020–2021 Belarusian protests

Russia has been too weak over the last 30 years to do regime change operations. Lukashenko was not some marionette but
actually autonomous and he sold Belorus down the river to NATzO. That is not Russia's fault. People think that controlling
countries is easy. How? The west controls them through the myth of its wealth via hordes of sycophants. Russia over
most the last 30 years could hardly apply this psychological tool to exert control. You can see both Ukraine and Belorus
how much NATzO worship there is. These people did not get brain transplants, they drank the koolaid of their own volition.

calripson wrote:Brzezinski who was probably the greatest Russophobe of the late 20th century, and the descendant of the lesser Polish nobility noted that although Putin was tactically ,masterful, he was strategically prone to error. Russia is now in a situation regarding Belarus where reaction plays into the hands of greater Western sanctions and an increased Belarus opposition which now directly can target Russia as an invading enemy and inaction which will be interpreted as weakness both internally and externally. Don't think the same protests can't be fired up across Russia asking for greater autonomy in region after region and for change, The late USSR had laughably bad propaganda to the point where my Soviet friends of that generation thought it had to be done on purpose. The US and the UK invested billions and decades in perfecting social mind control. It was Churchill himself who stated in 1946 "all future empires will be empires of the mind". It worked beautifully. All those ICBMs didn't save the USSR from collapse and they will not save Russia either if the minds of the young follow the "Western model".

After Chechnya there is basically zero chance for any region of Russia to be launched into a secessionist insurrection.   None of the
regions outside the North Caucuses has:

1) Historical grievances worthy of note.   Unlike North America, indigenous people in Russia have not been herded into
reservation ghettos.

2) Current oppression that would prompt secessionism.

3) The right sort of hooks (e.g. Islamic radicalization) to start secessionist militancy.

NATzO can dream but both Ukraine and Belorus are special cases.    In both there was a autonomous divergence from Russia
that Russia could not control so cannot be blamed for.   Invoking that Polish dirtbag as some sort of guru on Russia is grotesque.
His hate fantasies are not legitimate analysis of anything about Russia.   All the posters in this thread who are claiming Russia
should have controlled Belorus and Ukraine are smoking crack.   If in 1991 there was no breakup of the union (even with
an economic system change) then we would have only seen regional secessionism in Ukraine based on its long pre-existing
history.   There would be no crisis in Belorus just as there is no crisis in the rest of Russia.  

Thank the Bolsheviks and Yeltsin for the problems in Belorus and Ukraine.   Putin's "lack of strategic thinking" is infantile BS
fantasy.   You would think all the critics spreading this line here have some recipe that would have worked.   Well, then,
lay it out.

No man in the position of Lukashenko would be in favor of having his country united with a bigger one because simply after that he would ceased to be president.

In the end, for now, Russia needs him to stay in power and it's clear ONCE again they have been caught with their pants down.

It is Luka with his pants down.... and it is Luka that made the mistake... he didn't realise how fragile his position actually is and then he saw the size of the dick coming towards him from the west... and he knows they wont be gentle... look at the Ukraine... and they don't care... they think the Ukraine is a success...

It is not in Russian interests to keep Luka... Luka is clearly not interested in anything but himself... he doesn't care what happens to Belarus, he just fears not being able to continue doing what he has been doing...

The main goal for the Russians should be to add Belarus to the federation (Putin is on record wanting this), otherwise, they keep taking these same risks with and you only need one fuck up to completely lose Belarus

It is highly unlikely they will properly integrate and would just become a pain in the ass... they will become like Hong Kong is to China, except they will need extra resources to keep them happy.... resources that could be used better for real Russians...

There shouldn't be even 3 russian countries in the first place. Belarus and Ukraine should be part of Russia. The treason by the communists like Lenin is what is bringing problems for many years and will continue for decades.

Quite correct, and equally Israel should not have been created either because as a country it never existed before, but those ships have sailed... Russia should be looking forward and not back.

Agree with you Seig, that keeping Luka in power should be in Russia's interests.

Russia should be interested in real democracy... in Russia and in Belarus... so just like in Syria... Russia should be interested in stability and law and order and elections as soon as possible in both cases. Russia would be better off with someone other than Luka... he is just a pain in the ass.

not all of them, certainly not most of the éthnic Russians. The same is true in the RF itself.

Probably true but that will just leave them like the Russian speakers in the Ukraine... isolated and shelled and bombed in their own country by their own government...

Presumably if they broke away from direct Russian influence then Russian purchases of Belarusian goods would start to fall. Is that a lot of stuff?

I would suspect that Russia was a bigger trade partner than the EU is or could be... but the same was true with Ukraine as well...

I've always been a huge fan of Putin but I can't figure out the Ukraine ballsup and now Belarus for the life of me.

Do you have teenage children? Putin has no more authority to tell the people of the Ukraine or Belarus what to do as he has to tell the people of the UK what to do... the difference between him and western leaders is that he doesn't tell other countries what to do... if only western leaders did the same with Russia and China and every other country on the planet...

If Belarus fell, what would be next? The Caucuses? Or those silly Central Asia places that suck up a fortune and send masses of hachees into Russia every year just so Russia can have them in the Eurasian Union?

Sounds like the same logic that got the US embroiled in a police action in Vietnam... if they fall to communism then it might never stop and the whole world might become communist. I seem to recall that it really had nothing at all to do with communism and everything to do with kicking colonial powers out of the country... namely the French and then the Americans... and after they got the message things settled down and communism didn't spread... shock horror...

Russia has been too weak over the last 30 years to do regime change operations.

I don't think it has anything to do with strength... the ease with which the west talks about and implements regime change or colour revolutions or how ever they want to dress them up is all the information you need to determine what the west is about.

A predatory monster that cannot be trusted...

These people did not get brain transplants, they drank the koolaid of their own volition.

Sad about the people they drag with them... but they will be living the dream right...

Belarus will eventually turn into another Ukraine, the only way to prevent this is to absorb Belarus. That is literally the only way at this stage.

Hahahaha... Russia trying to forcefully absorb Belarus would be Americas biggest wet dream... it would be Russia falling for the trap they set in the Ukraine but failed to spring...

It is still very possible to do, but time is certainly running out. If Russia attempts to just put a band-aid on Belarus then that country will fall out of their orbit eventually, this isn't a problem you can just put a band-aid over and expect to work its self out.

It is not something that can be fixed with force either.

The Russians by now should have learned about their failures with Ukraine and if they repeat those failures then they are truly morons or at least the ones in charge are.

You make it sound like Russia lost something with the Ukraine... those feral nazis are eating themselves and their new western masters are applauding... sounds like a bullet dodged... who would want to create a partnership with those losers?

As you say this also sends a message to various Russian allies and it also pretty much makes my own country even more sure of it's self, after all if we can rip Belarus and Ukraine away from Russia, then we can rip everyone else away also. It's do or die for Russia now, will it succeed or will it flounder around wondering how it got bent over a desk, we will soon find out.

Yeah, keep playing the game.... I am sure destroying countries can't possibly bite you in the arse... BTW would add lots of people from Belarus and Ukraine are very well educated and could probably create all sorts of dangerous things.... but by all means break them and enjoy yourself... I am sure they will never come to resent being used and discarded like trash.

I am sure the Disney movie will have plenty of black people telling their story...

I think a variation of "if you love them, then let them go" is the correct approach given human psychology. All the Russia fleeing
elements need to live the life they choose. Stopping them only creates resentment and kicks the can down the road of dealing
with the delusion a the heart of the divergence. Russia needs to keep itself intact and it can. But it cannot start baby sitting
resentful populations who will forever believe that they were deprived of their due easy and rich life as part of the NATzO "family"
(really hyena pack).

Ukrainians are starting to slowly learn that their hubris and hate is costing them big time and their mythologized western ideals
are full of shit. But this process will take decades until the crop of idiots who were born in the late USSR period and after 1991
die off. Their children will not be so convinced of the righteousness of their parents since they will be eating the misery and
hardship day in and day out. Their parents could afford to delude themselves because they had it easy both under the USSR
and during the post USSR period when Russia pumped over $200 billion US into Ukraine and they still traded with Russia.

Belorus is in the above way very much like Ukraine. It lacks the Nazis and the Uniates but it is in the transition zone of
delusion that integration with the NATzO west will give it the good life. Human psychology is horrible. The USSR produced
millions of aggressive welfare bums with a deep entitlement syndrome all because it guaranteed jobs and a rather decent
standard of living even compared to the west. If humans do not earn their livelihood, they begin to think it is due them
without effort and that it is never good enough. It is the tragedy of the commons. It would be nice if humans could
appreciate what should be appreciated, but clearly humans are not, as a species, evolved to this level. That there are
individuals that have a grip does not disprove that too many don't have a grip.

Most young Belarussians would prefer life of a Gastarbeiter in the EU as that is still better than what they currently have.

I wonder what happens if Russia withdraws the oil subsidies. EU has no money to finance yet another country especially now after UK has left.

Yes, it seems it is over or will be over soon. And interestingly it appears that Russia is fighting the Western propaganda troupe with their own weapons, and quite effectively. The difference with Ukraine is that in Belarus there is a government willing to be rescued and a pro-russian majority supporting it. I think the West rushed, they should have allowed Lukashenko to do the job of decoupling Belarus himself instead of throwing him into the arms of Russia...