2020–2021 Belarusian protests

SeigSoloyvov wrote:This has nothing to do with the US.

Not many people believe Luka won clean and fair, but in any case US has a lot to do with what is happening. Maidans do not organize on their own and this is following the same script of all the rest of them.

Andrey Martyanov's opinion on this little shit-side-show and I agree with it in full:

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2020/08/white-elephant-size-800-pound-gorilla.html




Also, RT is still pushing for color revolution in Belarus, Luka is fucked beyond belief

LMFS wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:This has nothing to do with the US.

Not many people believe Luka won clean and fair, but in any case US has a lot to do with what is happening. Maidans do not organize on their own and this is following the same script of all the rest of them.

Even with Nuland and her cookies it is supposedly "nothing to do with the US". Yanquis think the rest of the world is populated by
idiots. Not surprising considering their self-anointed exceptionalism. And yes, very like the Nazis.

Not an hour ago VCO was watching a vid, live feed, of Minsk, Independence Square, in front of a 'large government building'. A line of men was standing well in front of the building and obviously ready to prevent any forced entry. News spoke to one, a Sarjant with his riot armor, helmet, shield and oak shampoo administration device, and another soldier in the line. VCO started laughing. She says there is quite a subtle difference in spoken Russian Byelorus/Russia which she, a native Russian speaker, instantly identified. She clearly and adamantly ID'd the two who spoke as Russian servicemen. If so, that entire line of soldiers are Russian. Not Byelorus, Russian.

LMFS wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:This has nothing to do with the US.

Not many people believe Luka won clean and fair, but in any case US has a lot to do with what is happening. Maidans do not organize on their own and this is following the same script of all the rest of them.

Not really, people will organize and fight back if push comes to shove, could the US have a had in it? sure.

At the sametime to suggest people will only revolt if the US sets it up is just wrong

auslander wrote:Not an hour ago VCO was watching a vid, live feed, of Minsk, Independence Square, in front of a 'large government building'.  A line of men was standing well in front of the building and obviously ready to prevent any forced entry. News spoke to one, a Sarjant with his riot armor, helmet, shield and oak shampoo administration device, and another soldier in the line. VCO started laughing. She says there is quite a subtle difference in spoken Russian Byelorus/Russia which she, a native Russian speaker, instantly identified. She clearly and adamantly ID'd the two who spoke as Russian servicemen. If so, that entire line of soldiers are Russian. Not Byelorus, Russian.

So the Polish lawmaker by mistake is right to accuse Putin of Lukashenko's heavy hand

auslander wrote:Not an hour ago VCO was watching a vid, live feed, of Minsk, Independence Square, in front of a 'large government building'.  A line of men was standing well in front of the building and obviously ready to prevent any forced entry. News spoke to one, a Sarjant with his riot armor, helmet, shield and oak shampoo administration device, and another soldier in the line. VCO started laughing. She says there is quite a subtle difference in spoken Russian Byelorus/Russia which she, a native Russian speaker, instantly identified. She clearly and adamantly ID'd the two who spoke as Russian servicemen. If so, that entire line of soldiers are Russian. Not Byelorus, Russian.

Naturally, Putin would be fine with Luka being tossed out but he doesn't want Belarus to fall out of russian orbit either, it's far too important geographically for the Russians.

I feel this is a good chance for Putin, he could prop up a man liked by the people but who will play ball. Once things settle down, he can start the process of adding Belarus to the Federation and that is Putins ultimate goal. He wants Belarus within the Federation.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Not really, people will organize and fight back if push comes to shove, could the US have a had in it? sure.

At the sametime to suggest people will only revolt if the US sets it up is just wrong

We "the people", sure. The one thing that characterises the masses are their inherent organizational and tactical skills, experience in international media campaigning, coordination with foreign governments, fast decision making, deep knowledge of the state apparatus and acute sense of the internal and external political climate, funding, budgeting etc etc... please tell me you don't really believe what you are saying and you are only trying to BS us... the chances US is not involved are zero. Even if they were relying on their regional puppets for the detail work. Don't you find it interesting that the embassy was reopened recently and what high profile CIA colour revolution operators were placed there?

Naturally, Putin would be fine with Luka being tossed out but he doesn't want Belarus to fall out of russian orbit either, it's far too important geographically for the Russians.

It would be bad news, but nothing terrible for Russia. They would have to substitute some trucks and reinforce the Western District, ok. For the Belarusians it would be a disaster though.

I feel this is a good chance for Putin, he could prop up a man liked by the people but who will play ball.

You don't quite get it do you? The "spontaneous" maidan will only accept a rabid russophobe as a new head of state. The pre-emptive "Russian maidan" card was already played by SBU + moles in the KGB to prevent Russia from interfering in the coming revolts. Now the Western gang knows the only way forward for Luka is turning back to Russia for help, so they will try to liquidate him asap, before he starts implementing the union state for real.

The only way for Luka (and for the country BTW) is to take care of the traitors in the government and cut foreign intervention fast and thoroughly, then forget his personal issues with Putin and start working for Belarus for real. They are under a huge risk right now.

Once things settle down, he can start the process of adding Belarus to the Federation and that is Putins ultimate goal. He wants Belarus within the Federation.

Of course he wants it, because Belarusians are part of the Russian people. But as said for Russia this is not an existential matter, while for Belarus it is.

auslander wrote:Not an hour ago VCO was watching a vid, live feed, of Minsk, Independence Square, in front of a 'large government building'.  A line of men was standing well in front of the building and obviously ready to prevent any forced entry. News spoke to one, a Sarjant with his riot armor, helmet, shield and oak shampoo administration device, and another soldier in the line. VCO started laughing. She says there is quite a subtle difference in spoken Russian Byelorus/Russia which she, a native Russian speaker, instantly identified. She clearly and adamantly ID'd the two who spoke as Russian servicemen. If so, that entire line of soldiers are Russian. Not Byelorus, Russian.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was Russian Rosgvardia there

But this is a load.

There is no difference between the Russian that city Belarussians speak and the ones that Russians speak. Literary none. I been there. I know many Belarussians. No difference.

In the villages and rural parts yeah there is a bit of an accent.

GarryB wrote:Oppressed?

They can vote him out any time they want...

They have been living rather well with him playing the Russians against the EU, but his smoke and mirrors game is not going to last forever... pretty soon his house of cards will come down... his problem is where to run...

They will vote him out of his country.
Slowly but surely protests are picking up steam and if militsia will join people as well - that will be it for him. He definitely made terrible mistake by angering russians.

What makes me less worried:

No looting, No knife the russians, no nazi thugs, no anti-russian slogans, no Nuland cookies. So far everything is very organic. Say what ever you want about Belarussians, but for me they are showing maturity that Ukrainians still don't have.

Their opossition don't even have leaders.. all of them are jailed or exiled. Tikhanovakaya is just a figurehead for her husband who is in jail and she is not hiding it - she begged for people to remain peaceful.

Russia should grab popcorn and enjoy the show.

flamming_python wrote:

auslander wrote:Not an hour ago VCO was watching a vid, live feed, of Minsk, Independence Square, in front of a 'large government building'.  A line of men was standing well in front of the building and obviously ready to prevent any forced entry. News spoke to one, a Sarjant with his riot armor, helmet, shield and oak shampoo administration device, and another soldier in the line. VCO started laughing. She says there is quite a subtle difference in spoken Russian Byelorus/Russia which she, a native Russian speaker, instantly identified. She clearly and adamantly ID'd the two who spoke as Russian servicemen. If so, that entire line of soldiers are Russian. Not Byelorus, Russian.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was Russian Rosgvardia there

But this is a load.

There is no difference between the Russian that city Belarussians speak and the ones that Russians speak. Literary none. I been there. I know many Belarussians. No difference.

In the villages and rural parts yeah there is a bit of an accent.

Lol, seriously? Living in UK really messed up your ears. This is why I am refusing to learn English on the same level as you   your Belarussian friends are probably good at hiding their provincialism
But there still an accent man. And quite strong. Auslander is right 100%. All Belarusians I've met have some of it, regional dialects are even stronger, but I can't distinguish them and we have belarusians here so would be good to get some input.

My better half is Belarusian and my family lived in Minsk. Just realised, I have some Belarussian accent myself. I called my aunt ciotka.. My wife, then girlfriend - ciolka. Hmmm.. D is also pronounced differently. "Dzikiy kaban". A letter is longer too, can't give you example, but watch Belarusian TV.. they literally call news - Novocti. It's TV talk, but their intonation is different than Russian dictorial pronunciation. They even replace G with H like Ukrainians or Rostovites. If you surprise Belarussian - they will say Oho, when russians say Ogo..

Also, just realised that my Lithuanian accent sounds similiar to Belarussian - Dzūkian accent has many loan words from Belarus, we also pronounce Dz, we put C instead of Ch or T. I didn't know accent can cover two languages at the same time..

BS naw, read what I said. I said could the US have a hand in it sure, I wouldn't doubt that.

But the logic people will only revolt against a government if the US makes them do it is also just absurd and filled with personal bias, there have been many revolutions in history where the US wasn't involved and sure they are many we have caused.

It would be terrible for them, from a military standpoint that would be an utter, colossal disaster.

That would happen regardless of whatever Russia does, so your points are pretty invalid.

It's like this anytime the US does something you will have a group of people always react a certain way and vice versa for Russia, that will never change regardless of what anyone does.

Regular wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

auslander wrote:Not an hour ago VCO was watching a vid, live feed, of Minsk, Independence Square, in front of a 'large government building'.  A line of men was standing well in front of the building and obviously ready to prevent any forced entry. News spoke to one, a Sarjant with his riot armor, helmet, shield and oak shampoo administration device, and another soldier in the line. VCO started laughing. She says there is quite a subtle difference in spoken Russian Byelorus/Russia which she, a native Russian speaker, instantly identified. She clearly and adamantly ID'd the two who spoke as Russian servicemen. If so, that entire line of soldiers are Russian. Not Byelorus, Russian.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was Russian Rosgvardia there

But this is a load.

There is no difference between the Russian that city Belarussians speak and the ones that Russians speak. Literary none. I been there. I know many Belarussians. No difference.

In the villages and rural parts yeah there is a bit of an accent.

Lol, seriously? Living in UK really messed up your ears. This is why I am refusing to learn English on the same level as you   your Belarussian friends are probably good at hiding their provincialism
But there still an accent man. And quite strong. Auslander is right 100%. All Belarusians I've met have some of it, regional dialects are even stronger, but I can't distinguish them and we have belarusians here so would be good to get some input.

My better half is Belarusian and my family lived in Minsk. Just realised, I have some Belarussian accent myself. I called my aunt ciotka.. My wife, then girlfriend - ciolka. Hmmm.. D is also pronounced differently. "Dzikiy kaban". A letter is longer too, can't give you example, but watch Belarusian TV.. they literally call news - Novocti. It's TV talk, but their intonation is different than Russian dictorial pronunciation. They even replace G with H like Ukrainians or Rostovites. If you surprise Belarussian - they will say Oho, when russians say Ogo..

Also, just realised that my Lithuanian accent sounds similiar to Belarussian - Dzūkian accent has many loan words from Belarus, we also pronounce Dz, we put C instead of Ch or T. I didn't know accent can cover two languages at the same time..

Nope. Only applies for village folk. Minsk city people speak exactly the same Russian as Muscovites. Well, slight differences maybe from Moscow, not so much the accent but the slang - but on the whole the differences between Minsk and Moscow are less than some of the regional differences in Russia.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How widely spoken is the actual Belarussian language?

According to this wikipedia page

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Belarus

In a 2009 census it emerged that, for a population of about 9.5 million people, belorussian was indicated as mother tongue for about 5 millions people and Russian by about 4 millions... however according to the same census belorussian language is normally spoken at home by only 2.2 millions people, and russian is instead normally spoken at home by about 6.7 millions people (I imagine that the remaining half a million people will speak mostly trasianka (a mix between russian and belorussian) polish or ukrainian...

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How widely spoken is the actual Belarussian language?

Well I been to Minsk only for a long weekend but I didn't hear it spoken even once. Thought I heard it in a discussion between an old lady and her daughter but na, it was just Russian.
Quite disappointed actually.

But as I hear it's spoken in the villages and so on.

The book store I went to had about 25% of the literature in Belarussian so there's that at least.

Same old same old from you "US this and US that".

Get new talking points, You can blame the US for everything in the world and hey that's fine.

Are you honestly trying that silly logic "A dictator is what we call it" No they aren't a dictator is a dictator and Luka is a dictator.

I don't recall saying American or Belarus are perfect, there is no such thing as a perfect country and there never will be.

The US doing something has nothing to do with the fact, Luka cannot be voted out, learn to read, and don't bring up pointless tidbits, that literally has nothing to do with what I said.

Shows how little you know about the subject if the people have the drive it's actually very easy, the only big factor is how the military will respond. Again you completely ignore what I say to go "Wah US bad". Once more there have been plenty of overthrows against governments the US had nothing to do with.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:As off topic do you (guys) think languages like Belarussian should be kept alive? If Belarus joins Russia, should money be actually spent on maintaining/reviving Belarussian or should it be simply left to die out?

They can keep it as an official regional language... in the republic of Dagestan in addition to Russian there are a dozen or so other "official languages"...

As far investing on it, I am not sure this is a responsibility of the federal government.


By the way, how is the situation in Tatarstan or in Chechenia? Is the federal government spending money on those language and cultures?

And what about Crimea (even if I believe the large majority of Crimeans are glad not to have Ukrainian as main language, and do not care too much if it is now recognised as a regional language...
The important thing is that region with a strong minority do not have unfair advantage in subsidies and other investments in comparison with the regions inhabited mainly by ethnic Russians..

If you notice all those pictures of the protesters, literally all of them are under 35 years of age. Most are what passes for Belarus Yuppies: young, professional, and urban...furiously studying English in their spare time. They openly claim to want to "be like Poland" and yes that means EU membership and NATO down the road. Twenty years ago Belarus could have been incorporated into Russia. It was Russia that said no. Not today. In fact, it would be extremely dangerous for Putin to attempt it as that would inevitably trigger demonstrations and violence in Belarus and Russia. The West has already set that trap and I doubt Putin is dumb enough to take the bait. What is the difference between people in Donetsk and Lugansk who genuinely wanted to reincorporate into Russia (and who were not accepted) and Belarus? Firstly, there was the genuine willingness to use violence. Any anti-Russia voices would have been silenced quickly. Secondly, those are blue collar working people not Yuppies crossing the border to Poland and Lithuania every other weekend to shop.

Nothing has been more dysfunctional since 1988 than Soviet or Russia strategic thinking regarding the future of the state as it involves former republics. It would have been fairly easy under Gorbachev, who was either the greatest fool in history or a traitor, to allow a republic by republic vote to form a new state "Union of Democratic Republics" centered on Russia. The Baltics would have left, Georgia, Turkmenistan ect. but Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakstan would have stayed.

The dismemberment of Russia has been an ongoing project since 1917.   Gorbie was like Khruschev and Yeltsin was an outright
comprador.   Yeltsin could have stopped the annexation of Crimea by Ukraine using the fact that the Rada recognized the 1990
referendum to restore autonomous republic status of Crimea and that Khruschev's gift was totally illegal even under the USSR
legal system.    Both Ukraine and Belorus are Bolshie concoctions.   Even though the locals are rabid about claiming these gifts
of Russian land and even Russian populations as some sort of ancestral land, that is pure BS.  

The area of modern Belorus is over four times larger than any sort of regional dialect would justify.   But the Bloshies used all
sorts of excuses like not enough industrial economy.   The Donbass was attached to Ukraine for this reason and Belorus got
similar stitching of meat onto it.    There were parts of Russia that are thankfully still parts of Russia today that were attached
to Ukraine and Belorus but for some reason unattached later.   But really all those Frankenstein operation pieces should have
been detached.   Neither Gorbie nor Yeltsin were interested in justice and fairness.  

It is not justified to blame Putin for not saving these pieces.   It was too late by 1999.   Russia was too weak and as we have
seen it has taken 20 years to dig out of Yeltsin's and Gorbie's hole.   This gives us time for generation of brainwashed anti-Russian
idiots who are idiots just like the western millenials that are the core of the SJW drones of the social media echo chamber cult.

The thing that gives me comfort is that these morons will be living it up 3rd world style.   They thought they were superior
and their NATzO buddies would make them rich (talk about a welfare bum complex), but they were just trash and cannon fodder
and will have to eat shit.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:As off topic do you (guys) think languages like Belarussian should be kept alive? If Belarus joins Russia, should money be actually spent on maintaining/reviving Belarussian or should it be simply left to die out?

They can keep it as an official regional language... in the republic of Dagestan in addition to Russian there are a dozen or so other "official languages"...
As far investing on it, I am not sure this is a responsibility of the federal government.
By the way, how is the situation in Tatarstan or in Chechenia? Is the federal government spending money on those language and cultures?
And what about Crimea (even if I believe the large majority of Crimeans are glad not to have Ukrainian as main language, and do not care too much if it is now recognised as a regional language...
The important thing is that region with a strong minority do not have unfair advantage in subsidies and other investments in comparison with the regions inhabited mainly by ethnic Russians..

In Krimea and the Federal City of Sevastopol, all official documents in regards to any subject are available in Russian, Tatari and Ukrainian. In Krimu and Sevastopol there are classes for Ukrainian and Tatari available in most schools, those that don't offer these classes are tiny schools out in the sticks.

calripson wrote:If you notice all those pictures of the protesters, literally all of them are under 35 years of age. Most are what passes for Belarus Yuppies: young, professional, and urban...furiously studying English in their spare time. They openly claim to want to "be like Poland" and yes that means EU membership and NATO down the road. Twenty years ago Belarus could have been incorporated into Russia. It was Russia that said no. Not today. In fact, it would be extremely dangerous for Putin to attempt it as that would inevitably trigger demonstrations and violence in Belarus and Russia. The West has already set that trap and I doubt Putin is dumb enough to take the bait. What is the difference between people in Donetsk and Lugansk who genuinely wanted to reincorporate into Russia (and who were not accepted) and Belarus? Firstly, there was the genuine willingness to use violence. Any anti-Russia voices would have been silenced quickly. Secondly, those are blue collar working people not Yuppies crossing the border to Poland and Lithuania every other weekend to shop.

Yes and not. If the state is dysfunctional and allows Western brainwashing to develop unabated, the result is some people falling in the trap. Luka should not have removed pro-russian figures from the public life, or right now pro-integration, anti-Western interference rallies could be organized and they would mobilize a lot of people. Veterans from Donbass and the rest of Ukraine could go there and explain to the population how everything happening in Belarus is a carbon copy of how the West destroyed their country. But nothing is being done. Well, it seems Luka has returned the contractors to Russia, at least a step in the right direction. Belarus is really hanging on a thread.

Nothing has been more dysfunctional since 1988 than Soviet or Russia strategic thinking regarding the future of the state as it involves former republics.

100% of failed decisions is highly suspicious in my book. The agenda was destroying the Soviet Union with the biggest possible, long-lasting geopolitical damage to Russia and that is exactly what Gorbi & his bastards implemented.

It would have been fairly easy under Gorbachev, who was either the greatest fool in history or a traitor, to allow a republic by republic vote to form a new state "Union of Democratic Republics" centered on Russia.

Or simply to remember them that leaving the union meant giving the Russian lands back, their choice. Now Russia would not be facing these problems.

For anyone who cares, yesterday when that line of strapping young lads was standing at 'rest' but with their shields in front of them, true to the program a 'pretty' young woman came up and put flowers in the vision holes of all the shields. Moments later their CO went down the line and removed all the flowers. There is apparently a vid of this installation and removal floating around in the ether and as the officer removed the flowers the crowd began to scream the usual about facists etc etc etc. End of vid. But what they don't show is the total vid wherein the CO takes the flowers in a proper bundle, walks to the Lenin Monument near the line and respectfully lays all the flowers on the monument, stating 'I think this is a more appropriate place for these flowers.' It is my understanding that one could hear a mouse pissing on cotton as he walked back and took his position at the end of the line.

I don't have a link to the vid, VCO is looking for it. A known blogger has it, someone anyone who knows Novorossiya knows about, he's been around since the first shots were fired in April '14.