Its been known for a long time that Putin considers Lukashenko to be rather a wild and unpredictable ie irrational/dangerous character.
Well to be fair most people consider him to have become a wild and unpredictable character... the old saying that power corrupts is apt here.
I hope at the right time, Putin gets the right people onside and fixes Belarus ie as a part of Russia or whatever is the best solution.
I suspect Putin will be consistent and point out to others complaining about his inaction that it really is not up to the president of Russia to impose regime change on a neighbour and that it is for the population of that neighbouring country to decide what they should be doing for themselves because they will have to live with the consequences...
Like the Ukraine is for instance...
Belorussians are being fed the same koolaid, but I doubt that the effects will be as potent. So there is room for Russia to engineer its
own coup against Lukashenko's regime.
If Putin pulls that sort of shit what makes Russia any different from the west? If the Belrussians can't work out from the simpering kool aide addict on their border crying for another hit from the IMF and willing to sell their morality to get one more, then perhaps that is their destiny too.
From a Russian perspective if the west wins there it is one less state to carry... the Ukraine is no threat to Russia... certainly not a threat that couldn't be easily dealt with in war time...
The irony is that the US offers them freedom... but it is the Russians that are allowing them the freedom to choose for themselves...
So Belarus claims they arrested 30 Russians who work for "Wagner" (yeah, lol) because they were going to destabilize the elections.
What a surprise.... Wagner is now the evidence you need to prove Putin ordered it personally... why did I even give it a second thought...
Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
the west are over.
Time for Russia to realise they are enabling a junkie and if you want to help him you need to expose him to the real world...
Yes but Belarus holds a lot of key Russian technology and industry as well. Something that will be a problem for Russia.
Just a lot of stuff that Russia will need to reinvent on Russian soil... investing in it self is never a bad thing... though friendly relations with neighbours is important sometimes you can't control what you neighbours do and who they associate with.
Russia really needs to put its foot down and deal with Belarus to get it in line.
The risk then is interfering and getting caught and the result being either pushing them into HATO arms... or worse winning them back but with a built in 5th column of millions of unhappy people wanting revenge on Russia because everything now will be Russias fault.
While Russia makes all the thermal imagers for their tanks and armored vehicles, they are all under Belarus assembly. Meaning Russia will have to move production of its armored vehicle imaging system assembly into Russia.
Next major issue is Belarus holds a lot of Russian sensitive tech in the Electric warfare capabilities.
If it is just assembly then move it to Russia anyway, and compromised technology is a good excuse to invest and upgrade....
I agree that regime change in Belorus is fully justified. But I think that Belorussians will not hate Russia as much as
the Banderite vermin in former Ukraine. There is no centuries long history of a separate identity. In fact, the
slide of Belorus into the economic toilet will kill the whole anti-Russia project. Faced with a choice of drinking
some koolaid about a mythical history and living well, the masses will choose the latter. In Banderastan that
is not so easy since there are millions of hard core Banderites invested in the anti-Russian agenda.
I suspect the best medicine if not to let them see what is happening to the Ukraine is to let Luka lead them to the west and the promise land and when they start cutting Russia off their lists of everything they might start to realise how closely integrated they are and how uninterested the west is to help fix those new problems they have... if there is no uprising there will at least be votes for opposing candidates next election time... by which time I suspect product substitution will be well underway...
Chances are it's just Lukashenko using Wagner's name to get some brownie points, he has been stating recently Russia has been trying to discredit him. So it makes sense to use Wagner in this cause they are under the control of the GRU.
But if it is true that Putin uses Wagner personally to do all his dirty work then are those not genuine and properly earned brownie points?
Or is it just western propaganda bullshit as I was saying all along?
IMO, if Putin cannot annex or force Belarus into the Federation soon (which he has been trying to do). That area is going to become a massive security risk to the Russians.
It is not a gap that cannot be closed...
Russia should have had the whole bench full of replacements ready and should have strangled that little maggot with his own intestines years ago but in their infinite stupidity they counted on friendship and diplomacy, absolute morons...
You suggest Russia not acting like the west is a shortcoming.... I say it is a strength, because at the end of the day the world needs an actual alternative to western bullshit and if Russia starts play stupid western games it just becomes more of the same rather than a real viable alternative to what has been holding the whole world back in terms of development and growth...
I doubt there will be any violent coup attempt in Belarus, but in the event that does happen Russia better hurry and secure Belarus otherwise it will face another Ukraine situation and I am hoping they have learned their lesson the first time.
The lesson that the west are a bunch of
, yes, I suspect they get that already... What I doubt is that they will interfere and try regime change... after all they are not American.