Libyan Crisis #2

GarryB wrote:Honestly I took your warning to him as a reminder of the rules... if he does it again he has no excuse because he knows the rules and you have reminded him too.

And we the mods do appreciate members bringing things to our attention... this is your forum too, so helping keep it tidy and to the rules is actually a good thing.

GarryB

Thanks Garry,well put.

He could even go back over those two particular posts and as a training exercise perhaps following your instructions, or to show willing, delete the photos

The Pantsirs are being driven on a transporter because they evaluated the risk to them versus speed of deployment and the risk was low. There is peace on that front and has been for a week or two now. In my eyes a reasonable decision.

And who did air defense protection of convopy in that time? No one. You could drive them on trailer in a country, which is not in war, like Russians drive them to parade in Moscow. Libya is in war and Turks made many surprise strikes there with drones. Pantsir is installed on Kamaz truck and could drive together with the rest of Ural trucks. They simply didn't learn the lesson. This is air defense and Pantsirs have to work inside battery and at least one TELAR must be on duty 24/7/365.

The Libyans are not necessarily a bunch of dumbos either. Remember that up until the fall of Ghaddafi they had free kindergarten to university education. This means that there could well be a cadre of soldiers 30+ who have been technically trained, possibly on their ex Soviet gear. Not good but they might have a grounding, enough perhaps to help those who do know who might well be there.

I'm not saying they are dumb. Modern air defence systems are very complicated to understand in terms of technology but should be easier to use than old soviet systems. However you need complete training (to operate the system but also to understand the physics)

Lybians are living in a destroyed country for the last 11 years, don't expect them to be well educated. Even the ones who were trained by soviet, after 11 years, wouldn't help in operating so advanced systems. Most of the work is done by russian contractors or UAE army.

On the other side it's turkish soldier that operates the drones. Not GNA.

medo wrote:

The Pantsirs are being driven on a transporter because they evaluated the risk to them versus speed of deployment and the risk was low. There is peace on that front and has been for a week or two now. In my eyes a reasonable decision.

And who did air defense protection of convopy in that time? No one. You could drive them on trailer in a country, which is not in war, like Russians drive them to parade in Moscow. Libya is in war and Turks made many surprise strikes there with drones. Pantsir is installed on Kamaz truck and could drive together with the rest of Ural trucks. They simply didn't learn the lesson. This is air defense and Pantsirs have to work inside battery and at least one TELAR must be on duty 24/7/365.

They were film with their radar working even on the trailers. They covered themselves.

They don't have enough pantsirs to make them work in batteries but they also face only drones, not an air force so the few they have should be enough. And it seems they keep 2 pantsir togather everytime so that they can cover each other.

Also some reports of su-24 attacking the turkish base.

medo wrote:

The Pantsirs are being driven on a transporter because they evaluated the risk to them versus speed of deployment and the risk was low. There is peace on that front and has been for a week or two now. In my eyes a reasonable decision.

And who did air defense protection of convopy in that time? No one. You could drive them on trailer in a country, which is not in war, like Russians drive them to parade in Moscow. Libya is in war and Turks made many surprise strikes there with drones. Pantsir is installed on Kamaz truck and could drive together with the rest of Ural trucks. They simply didn't learn the lesson. This is air defense and Pantsirs have to work inside battery and at least one TELAR must be on duty 24/7/365.

They have air-superiority....I've exchanged messages with a guy who lives in Sirte and he claims there are aircraft flying daily over the town

The Turks will need to beef up their airdefences and/or deploy fighter aircraft if they want to capture Sirte

Haftar really fucked up not listening to Russia and sign ceasefire back in February when LNA had large swaths in northwestern Libya including Tripoli airport and a big chunk of Tripoli. Now Haftar has a 1 sided ceasefire that's not accepted by GNA in a very dangerous frozen conflict (for now).

Cyberspec wrote:

medo wrote:

The Pantsirs are being driven on a transporter because they evaluated the risk to them versus speed of deployment and the risk was low. There is peace on that front and has been for a week or two now. In my eyes a reasonable decision.

And who did air defense protection of convopy in that time? No one. You could drive them on trailer in a country, which is not in war, like Russians drive them to parade in Moscow. Libya is in war and Turks made many surprise strikes there with drones. Pantsir is installed on Kamaz truck and could drive together with the rest of Ural trucks. They simply didn't learn the lesson. This is air defense and Pantsirs have to work inside battery and at least one TELAR must be on duty 24/7/365.

They have air-superiority....I've exchanged messages with a guy who lives in Sirte and he claims there are aircraft flying daily over the town

The Turks will need to beef up their airdefences and/or deploy fighter aircraft if they want to capture Sirte

MIM-23 Hawk at Watiyah is under watch by UAE. UAE has Mirage 2000-9 armed with Apache stand off missiles range 100+ km more than twice the range of MIM-23 Hawk. Any MIM-23 Hawk set up at Watiyah will be destroyed by UAE from stand off range operating out of Egypt.

Gliding bombs launched from high altitudes and high speed should outrange the Hawks.

The land distance between Bneghazi and Sirte is about 500 km and it's safe from attacks at least now, so it's safe to load the Pantsir on trailers .

MIM-23 Hawk at Watiyah is under watch by UAE. UAE has Mirage 2000-9 armed with Apache stand off missiles range 100+ km more than twice the range of MIM-23 Hawk. Any MIM-23 Hawk set up at Watiyah will be destroyed by UAE from stand off range operating out of Egypt.

Putting the Hawk in Al watyah is not to cover Sirte , it's about 500km away from the air base .

They only need to protect the air base to start operating F-16 there to provide an air cover to invade Sirte .

Isos wrote:Gliding bombs launched from high altitudes and high speed should outrange the Hawks.

It's altitude is about 11km . Rafale and F-16 and Mig-29 can fly beyond that .

Libyan parliament invites 'direct intervention' by Egyptian Armed Forces

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/89642/Libyan-parliament-invites-direct-intervention-by-Egyptian-Armed-Forces

Isos wrote:They were film with their radar working even on the trailers. They covered themselves.

No, they can not. They could only watch, unles they are driving realy slow.

medo wrote: Pantsir could fire on the move, but only to limited speed, not at full speed like those trailes drive. Pantsir should drive itself, that the crew, which see a danger, could say to driver by intercom to slow down, that they could engage it. How could the crew comunicate with the driver of the trailer? Also Pantsir on the ground is far more stable, that on the trailer. In such case crew inside could not react to danger, but could only watch, how the incoming missile will kill them.

How could the crew comunicate with the driver of the trailer?

Talkie-walkie. 10$ in any store.

I agree they would be better with them moving on their own but there must be some reason why they move them on trailers.

ahmedfire wrote:

Libyan parliament invites 'direct intervention' by Egyptian Armed Forces

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/89642/Libyan-parliament-invites-direct-intervention-by-Egyptian-Armed-Forces

I don't read arab, but this should be a green light from Libyan parliament for military intervention of Egyptian army in Libya.

medo wrote:

ahmedfire wrote:

Libyan parliament invites 'direct intervention' by Egyptian Armed Forces

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/89642/Libyan-parliament-invites-direct-intervention-by-Egyptian-Armed-Forces

I don't read arab, but this should be a green light from Libyan parliament for military intervention of Egyptian army in Libya.

Yes they gave the right for Egypt to do a military action inside Libya to secure the national security of both countries .

Egypt should deploy some forces now ,not waiting the attack to start ,it would be a mistake because the distance between LNA and GNA is not big ,around 100 km ,GNA could take Sirte quickly .

Or else the EAF will go first untill the army force reach there .

I read it, The main parts are.

"Libyan parliament Statement No. 02 of 2020 .M"

"The blatant Turkish intervention by baddna continued to violate Libya's sovereignty at a blessed place".

"The armed militias control the west of Al-Badd-E-Mart, the reality under their control."

"The stake is a direct threat to our country and the neighboring countries, foremost"

"The Libyan House of Representatives is the only legitimate example to be elected by the Libyan people, and the seventh example: Radha. I welcome the statement of His Excellency President Abdelfattah Al-Saab of Egypt. The presence of Representatives from the tribes allied to the collaborative efforts between the two brotherly Libya and Egypt, including. It guarantees the defeat of the Nazi occupier, it preserves our common national security, and it achieves the prosperity and stability of our country. If the Egyptian Armed Forces see the intervention to protect"

"There is an imminent danger to the security of our countries if we counter the invaders, including the decision. The Libyan National will preserve Libya's sovereignty and unity and preserve the wealth and capabilities of the Libyan people. The greed of the conquistadors will last forever, and be my supreme word to the people according to who? His free will and interests, The Supreme, deaf to the positions of the Libyan House of Representatives that ensure the equitable distribution of the wealth of our nation. Libya's oil revenues and the guarantee that Libyans wealth will not be disturbed by the armed militias. The law is a legitimate demand of the Libyan people"

Erdogan can't afford to play dice in western Libya without oil. There's too many people there with no oil. Erdogan has no choice but to take Libya's oil. Problem it's all in eastern Libya. So he has to go after Sirte and Jufra. And that means war with Egypt. It could very well be the end of Erdogan.

I don't knw where to write this but it seems Russian'turkish relation are totally fucked.

It seems that Turkey pushed Azerbaidjan to attack Armenia and open a new front for Russia as they will have to support their ally.in the same time Turkey send back some Hawk to replace the one destroyed. And in Syria Turkish backed terrorists are targeting russians.

Now it seem the answer from Russia is to let Egypt destroy the GNA and Turks in ME. In the same time they try to calm down armenians and azerbaidjan but if they don't we can expect a total russian puppet to control Azeerbaidjan in the next week.

In Syria, Erdogan remove lot of fighters from Idlib toward Libya and they attacked russians directly so the bombing may restart and ab offensive would occure pretty fast.

Then Turkey will loose Azerbaidjan, but also lot of high tech systems in Libya (3 frigates, drone systems and special forces) and it will have to retreat from Syria.

The big question is will Russia destroy Turkey now that NATO hates them, no more nuks there, France could help diplomatically, Trump can't help Erdogan because US hates him, arab world hates him, Greece would attack to just like Syria and israel and Cyprus.

Putin already took the opportunity to take Crimea. I bet he would do something for the strait and get the northern part by sharing with Greece.

Then Greece won't have to stay in NATO and it will be the end of NATO.

Isos wrote:I don't knw where to write this but it seems Russian'turkish relation are totally fucked.

It seems that Turkey pushed Azerbaidjan to attack Armenia and open a new front for Russia as they will have to support their ally.in the same time Turkey send back some Hawk to replace the one destroyed. And in Syria Turkish backed terrorists are targeting russians.

Now it seem the answer from Russia is to let Egypt destroy the GNA and Turks in ME. In the same time they try to calm down armenians and azerbaidjan but if they don't we can expect a total russian puppet to control Azeerbaidjan in the next week.

In Syria, Erdogan remove lot of fighters from Idlib toward Libya and they attacked russians directly so the bombing may restart and ab offensive would occure pretty fast.

Then Turkey will loose Azerbaidjan, but also lot of high tech systems in Libya (3 frigates, drone systems and special forces) and it will have to retreat from Syria.

The big question is will Russia destroy Turkey now that NATO hates them, no more nuks there, France could help diplomatically, Trump can't help Erdogan because US hates him, arab world hates him, Greece would attack to just like Syria and israel and Cyprus.

Putin already took the opportunity to take Crimea. I bet he would do something for the strait and get the northern part by sharing with Greece.

Then Greece won't have to stay in NATO and it will be the end of NATO.

Libya isn't Erdogan's ultimate goal. It's a small stepping stone in Erdogan's Ottoman reconstruction plan. Next after Libya is of course Egypt. Erdogan can attempt to incite a Muslim Brotherhood uprising in Egypt and back Muslim Brotherhood to take over Egypt. After that, the next step is of course Damascus. Appeasement didn't work with Hitler, and sure won't work with Erdogan.

It's a good thing Armenia got Su-30SM from Russia. TB2 drones supplied by Erdogan to Azerbaijan are useless against Su-30SM.

dino00 wrote:https://twitter.com/RojavaNetwork/status/1283161817930518528?s=09

#Libya: Libya army military source: The eastern Libya borders and and the city of Sirte were secured with Russian air defence systems S-300 and 9K37 Buk.



Maybe fake news...but

Buk M2 from SAA. No S-300 AFAIK.

S-300 seems like someone's fantasy. Syrian or Egyptian BUK's if confirmed will come in handy.

Everyone seems to be expecting the fighting to resume in the next 24 - 72 hrs


@Isos,

regarding Russo-Turkish relations, it's a strange game for sure. Some people describe them as adversaries in the morning and "Situational Partners" in the evening. Personally I think it suits Russia to use Turkey to show the glaring fault lines within Nato

The big question is will Russia destroy Turkey now that NATO hates them, no more nuks there, France could help diplomatically, Trump can't help Erdogan because US hates him, arab world hates him, Greece would attack to just like Syria and israel and Cyprus.

Why would Russia try to destroy Turkey... Turkish actions in Syria and Libya and even Armenia/Azerb... don't threaten Russia...

A Russian attack on Turkey would directly end any cooperation via South Stream, and make the conflicts in Syria much worse for Syria and Russia... first of all the US would use it as a reason to patch things up with Turkey and for much of the EU Turkey will be the victim of Russian aggression and in serious need of help... and second of all perhaps you are over estimating Turkeys ability to make a real difference in these three conflict areas...

Russia has made and seems to be sticking to agreements made, but if Turkey keeps stirring the shit, they might find Russia is not so obliging or ready to make deals to suit both sides and force could be considered a viable alternative.... a bit like US and her sanctions against the Russians... pretty soon there will be no ties at all and therefore nothing to lose.

LNA in Sirte received Barrett anti material rifles from UAE. These wack the shit out of pickup trucks should GNA get near Sirte.

https://twitter.com/Oded121351/status/1283293667764117504

I don't think Syria send any But to Libya, they need them at home against Turks and Israelis. Most probably Egypt deliver some.