I don't want there to be an obstacle to sale of Russian jets to Iran, because of over insistence on obtaining the manufacturing rights by Iran for some components. Since Russians may not want to do this, and it may stop sales going through. It is useful to have some manufacturing for perishable parts. But not essential or necessary, providing that a sufficient and updated inventory of parts and Ammo is kept in storage.
There are countries that just buy off the shelf, and there are more ambitious countries who want more than just what other companies can offer them... they want custom made and they want assured products that cannot be denied to them.
Iran has a hard won capacity to look after its planes on its own... this is unusual on the planet because these are American planes which are normally not for sale... normally just for lease... if you behave.
The point is that Russia has lost the large market of like minded richer countries (ie eastern europe), and of the rest of the world most of their other clients couldn't really afford to pay full prices... right now there is China and India and Algeria and you could add Egypt... but not really Syria because they are not really in a position for major expensive purchases.
Iran is not super rich but has resources that are in demand... right now its value is tiny but in the long term is bound to recover...
Iran could sell oil contracts the EU used to own to Russia simply because the EU is not meeting their requirements in the agreement so perhaps Russian companies can develop Irans resources and make some money for both countries...
I say this because, the planes Iran needs are for close contact and WVR use
The problem with close contact combat with high off boresight missiles lots of missiles are going to be used and lots of planes are going to be lost... a MiG-29M2 with a helmet mounted sight and some new short range AAMs would be very potent, but then you could be smarter and use R-27T and R-27ET missiles too which means targets further away or running away can be chased down by these bigger heavier and faster IR guided missiles... together with R-73s it would probably give you a real edge in close range air to air fighting...
I think this can be an accurate analog, comparison between two modern jets engaged in dogfights. Using cannons or similar.
I disagree... there are so many factors that effect the outcome and the situation is completely different... unlike the Germans during WWII the Americans will do everything they can to knock down your defences including radars and sams and comm centres and HQs and of course your airfields and aircraft while they are on the ground... a bit like what the germans did in the soviet union in the first few days..
Therefore, the amount of spares and Ammo for any Russian plane for Iran, should not be below this amount. And as long as this is achieved. Then makes little difference if parts imported or manufactured. If money is short, it may even be much cheaper and simpler, to have stocks of planes and spares , instead of manufacture.
With Iraq it was about ten years between when the embargo and economic sanctions started and when western aircraft attacked and invaded Iraq itself... they will do everything they can to weaken you before they start any attack and then they will try to find weak points to exploit during the attack.
Simply buy more planes and spares, with the money spent on a factory or manufacturing rights. May even be more advantageous.
That is certainly a consideration... buy some planes now with a large spares and support base and then decide where to go in the future... licence produce, produce your own from scratch, or joint venture with a foreign company to create a combination of the two... an in production aircraft adapted to suit your needs better...
Replacing all your current aircraft would mean a large number of aircraft involved which would make the deal more interesting for them in terms of localisation of production or assembly and the support arrangement.
that was before Iraq got F-16th & Suleimani got killed. Now, those planes r slowly becoming scrap metal in Iraqis' hands. They could cooperate to keep them in the air.
You are making no sense... if Iraq can't maintain them... and they can't... then how is Iran supposed to help... they know less about the planes than the Iraqis who can't maintain them on their own either.
They could cannibalize some for parts, & Venezuela could supply them too- enough to keep at least a dozen combat ready.
The parts that need replacing are the same parts on all the aircraft so they will all be wearing out... Venezuelas aircraft will already be worn out and be of no help to anyone.
Iraqi & Ven., if not Pakistani pilots/maintainers could be hired outright until the locals r trained., & it won't take that long.
Trained on what... Venezuela used the planes for a few years no and their planes are no longer flying... how can they help a country that has never flown F-16s and doesn't have any to fly them and keep them flying?
turning it off for all other friendly users in the area as well.
There are no US friendly users of the GPS signal inside Iran.
They can be given avionics to use the GLONASS &/ Beidou systems.
So now they have to integrate foreign navigation systems into an American system they have never seen or used before, are these Iranians or Magicians?
not if we r talking about just parts, not an entire plane.
Yes it would be a pain in the ass whether it is the entire plane or just individual parts...
they could get a few for themselves for eval./adversary training & have the know how should Iran run into problems. Stronger IrAF will be better for both in the ME region vs. the US/Israeli warmongering & adventurism.
I doubt they care about the models of F-16 the Iranians could ever get their hands on in any numbers... which is zero anyway.
Iran would be much stronger buying 40-50 Su-30s to replace their F-14s and Su-24s and about 150 MiG-29M2s to replace existing F-4s and MiG-29s...
If the Israelis can do it, the Iranians/Russians/Chinese can modify F-16s to carry Russian/Chinese missiles & other gear.
Yeah, getting them to fire Russian and Chinese weapons is not really the biggest problem here... it is more a case of getting the damn things to fly on a regular basis... which I am doubting.
They can bomb & sanction but that's it.
They can threaten to sanction any country that trades with them... which would devastate their economies for decades to come.
Years of fighting in Iraq & Afghanistan decimated the US Army- they occupy only a few bases & r in the process of leaving.
They don't leave... they say they will but it is a lie.
They don't even want to invade Venezuela, except by proxies & mercenaries.
Venezuela helping Iran with F-16 parts would justify military action...
with current oil prices, does Iran have enough gold, $, Rubles & Yuan to pay for them? What else can it burter- rugs & pistachios?
Oil contracts for Iranian oil fields would do...
Iran can just occupy/send personnel to those airfields & learn to operate them from there; during the Gulf War, the US couldn't interdict any Iraqi planes fleeing to Iran- I was told so by a USN pilot who was on that failed mission.
They didn't actually have troops on the ground at that stage and at that time they didn't care because they were Iraqi aircraft that were going so any plane that ran away was a plane they didn't have to deal with in the air.
Like they "couldn't" use F-14s, build ships & subs, copy/improve the F-5, launch a satellite, hack & reverse engineer US stealth UAV, operate uranuim enrichment/nuclear plants, & make PG BMs. I'll take it with a grain of salt.
When they did those things the hard way on their own there was no option to buy off the shelf...
1 Iraqi pilot also crashed his F-16 on a training flight in Arizona- but there r dozens of pilots left to instruct the Iranians before local pilots r trained. It's a job not w/o risk, even in peacetime.
By the time 20 Iraqis have flown to Iran and taken the time to train Iranian pilots to fly them those aircraft will need an overhaul and parts replaced. With no chance of an overhaul or spare parts they will be put in a hangar and left to rot while those pilots slowly forget what they learned and those Iraqi pilots go home.
It is just a waste of time.
it'll take a lot of oil & time with current prices to pay for those Su-30s.
Oil contracts would be fine...
then, those can be traded in for more Iraqi F-16s than the Su-30s.
Iraqi F-16s are not for sale.
Some Iranian F-4/5s &/ J-7s with support along with former Iraqi AF planes can also be traded in to sweeten the deal.
Why the hell would they trade better planes for ancient crap planes?
I admit it won't be easy to integrate them, but it may be worth it in the long run.
It wont be worth it.... Hangar Queens have no value in an Air Force that needs to operate in the air.
On the plus side, their MiG-29s use 2 engines while the F-16s only 1, even if their ranges r going to be equal with CFTs.
No they are not... because Iraqi F-16s don't have CFTs and F-16s with no spare parts have no flight range.
Their F-4/5/14s can work together with F-16s allowing more flexibility & new tactics.
They need planes to replace those planes not operate with them... and why do you think F-16s would work well together with navy planes?
Putting a powerful radar in the nose &/ EW pods, ARMs &/ AshMs will make it a decent EW/maritime strike plane.
You could fit the death star to the back seat... if it is not flying it wont make any difference... and where would it get powerful radar and other equipment from?
Their Su-24s can then take time off & last longer!
Ideally they would want an upgrade or replacement for that too...
less logistical maintenance burdens, as well as fuel consumption.
If that were true are you not wondering why Venezuela and Iraq are such idiots?
If the F-16 needs conformal external fuel tanks to match the flight range of a basic MiG-29 are you really sure it has better fuel consumption or perhaps it just carries more fuel?
However you have, in my mind stated the obvious potential issue post October, that of fear, your response specifically refers to the EU fearing financial and other sanctions for businesses conducting business in Iran - the same can be applied to China and the Russia can it not?
No, because the EU members are a bunch of pussies that do as they are told. Russia and China are not. Both are continuing to honour the contract... and have every reason to stay with that agreement which says after October 2020 that they can sell weapons to Iran.
Fighter planes are defensive aircraft.
there is you will agree, history of Russia bending the knee to such pressure, perhaps China too but I’m not across the specifics.
In the past yes, but past mistakes will not be repeated and Russia knows the US is untrustworthy... Russia continuing to help Iran with civilian nuclear power programmes shows they don't always bow to US pressure, and this is the same.
In fact this is a chance for Russia to give the US the finger for breaking what was a successful international agreement.
Any legal framework goes out the window as soon as the American pricks decide it so. That’s the reality of the world in which we live.
From the perspective of Russia one of a few things will happen... either the US will force the EU to claim that enrichment changes Iran has made in response to their not following through with promised investments because of threatened US sanctions against those companies is a breach and that because Iran breached the agreement then the sanctions wont be relaxed... to which Russia might say... OK you guys are breaking the deal and then punishing Iran with sanctions anyway so we are leaving the deal and will trade with Iran as we please, or the US will claim that because they are named in the agreement as a party that despite their withdrawing they are still party and they object to Iranian violations and therefore the sanctions must remain... to which Russia and China might as well leave because it has been rendered pointless by the duplicity of the Americans and slimy weak spined nature of the europeans... and Russia and China can then sell weapons to Iran... or perhaps for a change the Germans and French might grow a spine and say that Iran has met the requirements and they will ignore the US and while they wont increase investments for fear of US retaliation they will offer weapons to Iran.... yeah.... I know... unlikely because even if Iran promised to buy Typhoons and Rafales the US sanctions would block the deals... what use would Typhoon be without AMRAAM?
Hmm, not sure it’ll play out like that and I think that you’re underestimating the screws that can be turned: fiscal, people and organisations. None of which would harm the US at all but make life very uncomfortable for those targeted.
To be honest the only screws the US can turn on Russia have already been tightened to the limit... any further attempts will damage the head and make turning either way impossible... US sanctions and punitive actions have only pushed Russia away from the west and made her more independent and stronger...
US oil companies have lost billions in potential arctic oil contracts...
As I say, I’ll be delighted if wrong, ecstatic even. The thoughts of 400 modern aircraft in Iran along with better aaa systems will put the local bully boys back in their box. That’ll please me most.
I agree... Iran is no angel and neither is Russia but both countries have had difficult periods in their existence and struggled under some serious pressure from powerful neighbours and enemies from further afield... both are demonised... yet the states that demonise them have done far worse and act in totally repugnant ways and I am judging them by their own morals and ethics here...
You also state Iran build ships and subs etc. Just like their copies of F-5 which is a light fighter nothing more nothing less it not 4 or 5th gen and not heavy fighter either. Their copies of cobra heli has only produced a handful like its light fighters and their ships well ask yourself how many decent warships have they built in last 20yrs and then ask yourself how many decent subs have they built in 20yrs.
Good point... and an even better question to ask is how many F-15s or F-18s or F-35s has Iran designed and built?
I mean if making an F-16 is achievable why not aim higher and get a better plane?
raq, Iran, & NK been bombed &/ sanctioned for many years & still survived.
I suspect Iran wants to do more than just survive...
Flight time from Iraq to Iran is very short; the US fighters won't be there in time to interdict them. In Iran, they'll be hidden in camouflage/shelters/caves deep inside its territory. Those F-16s r not that advanced to risk starting a war over them at the wrong time.
They will make Iranian airfields fair game... in fact sending in cruise missiles would be a great opportunity to map Iranian air defences and any other planes they kill will be just a bonus because the stated goal is to destroy the stolen planes... I am sure they would love the opportunity... and it is not like a hostage situation where they need to worry if they might kill the hostages... it is a case of keeping newer American aircraft technology out of Iranian hands...
history is full of surprises!
It is and you should never say never but it is totally left field completely unlikely... I would say an Asteroid impact would be more likely...
the F-16 is medium, not a heavy fighter. As mentioned, they may get enough of them w/o having to build their own copy/derivative.
Setting up their own factories to build a plane they have no planes or specs for would take a thousand times more effort than paying Russia or China to set up a factory for them.
well, other agricultural produce may be added; what else besides natural gas can they sell in huge amounts? Salt form the dry lakes?
They could give concessions to build a waterway between the Gulf & the Caspian Sea- geography is their biggest strategic asset, being even better situated than Turkey. Or they could build huge solar power plants in their deserts & sell electricity to their neighbors.
Iran could build a high speed rail line from the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf and give the Russian Navy access to a port at each end of the rail line with the proviso that Iranians can use the rail line as well to open up trade...
A warm water port for Russian ships which means crews and provisions could be sent via boat and then train to a port that gives the Russian Navy access to the Indian ocean and the coast off africa that bypasses the suez canal....
They might get the production licence to the MiG-35 and its engines as well...