Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    d_taddei2
    d_taddei2

    Posts : 1770
    Points : 1950
    Join date : 2013-05-11
    Location : Scotland UK

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  d_taddei2 on Tue May 26, 2020 12:43 pm

    GarryB wrote:Export restrictions to Iran come off in October this year don't they...

    I would think that ironically upgrades of the F-5 would be the only ones that make sense for Iran... for everything else they would be better off buying new.

    Many sources claim many aren't in flying condition

    Most western sources are biased because the USN struggled to keep its F-14s flying and it could buy new parts for them...

    I rather suspect a Flanker based F-14 replacement and a Fulcrum based F-4 replacement would be the simplest option, but they never seem to do what I think they will...

    I didn't mean all weren't in flying condition but quite a few not flying due parts etc.

    Iran as I mentioned should retire it's F5, F1, F4, F14 and replace with su-30 and mig-29m and get some kind of production rights this would still keep their aviation industry busy.  They can keep their grown F-5 copies but halt production or just build trainer versions(believe they already have)   They can keep their Su-22, and upgrade J-7, su-25, Su-24. This would streamline their air force. Later on once this has all happened some many years,  they could eventually replace su-22 and su-24 with su-34. J-7 with more mig-29m.

    Let's wait and see what aircraft they bringing out soon.  And see what October brings most likely continued sanctions
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 4186
    Points : 4182
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue May 26, 2020 7:01 pm

    Upgrades can be made by Russia &/ China for them.
    If Iraq-US relations fully sink in the gutter, new & underutilized Iraqi F-16s  would be a welcome addition to the IAF: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/30/f16-jets-us-concerned-iran-backed-militias-iraq-threat/

    With conformal fuel tanks they would fit well as multirole fighters, replacing some F-1/4/5s. Venezuela &/ black market would supply the parts, or they could be manufactured in Iran.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue May 26, 2020 7:03 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add text)
    Isos
    Isos

    Posts : 5829
    Points : 5821
    Join date : 2015-11-06

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Isos on Tue May 26, 2020 7:45 pm

    US would destroy them before it happen. Iraq is also divided and US put friends in the Iraqi military once they overthrow Sadam. Without the support of the iraqi air force, iran wouldn't be able to use them.
    d_taddei2
    d_taddei2

    Posts : 1770
    Points : 1950
    Join date : 2013-05-11
    Location : Scotland UK

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  d_taddei2 on Wed May 27, 2020 12:20 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Upgrades can be made by Russia &/ China for them.
    If Iraq-US relations fully sink in the gutter, new & underutilized Iraqi F-16s  would be a welcome addition to the IAF: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/30/f16-jets-us-concerned-iran-backed-militias-iraq-threat/

    With conformal fuel tanks they would fit well as multirole fighters, replacing some F-1/4/5s. Venezuela &/ black market would supply the parts, or they could be manufactured in Iran.

    Isn't all USA export aircraft got backdoor software allowing USA to stop certain software etc and sure one of the threads on here was talking about it. USA and Israel wouldn't allow such.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 4186
    Points : 4182
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed May 27, 2020 12:32 am

    If so, the software/hardware can be removed & replaced with their own. Israel done it with its F-35s.
    I also doubt Iran needs or will get any Su-34s. Multirole Su-30/57s would suit them well.
    d_taddei2
    d_taddei2

    Posts : 1770
    Points : 1950
    Join date : 2013-05-11
    Location : Scotland UK

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  d_taddei2 on Wed May 27, 2020 2:31 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:If so, the software/hardware can be removed & replaced with their own. Israel done it with its F-35s.
    I also doubt Iran needs or will get any Su-34s. Multirole Su-30/57s would suit them well.


    If Iran could produce such software etc it would most likely replaced the F-14, F-4, F1 and build their own aircraft but guess what it hasnt. and if it was that easy venez would have done it by now. And you forget weapons systems as well, its far easier for Iran to buy Russian or chinese aircraft and weapons for them and then get production rights than, try to buy USA aircraft such as F-16 (which most likely already outdated) and then try to figure out how to replace parts, maintain it, copy parts, copy weapons, missiles, and then design their own software, so basically your saying buy an airframe of a F-16 and redesign it bottom to top makes zero sense. and they have failed to do such with F-14, F-4.

    Su-24 and SU-22 are dedicated ground attack so its natural o replace such aircraft with Su-34 and it wouldnt be an issue for them to replace with Su-34, but i think ur dreaming if you think they will get Su-57. Su-30 and Su-34, Mig-29M, Mig-35 yes most likely choose/get those aircraft.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 4186
    Points : 4182
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed May 27, 2020 3:33 am

    The ability to develop software isn't=the ability to build 3rd & 4th generation airframes & engines. They did put their own/copied weapons on their Western supplied/acquired fighters. No need to redesign F-16 airframes. They could get spares from Venezuela &/ Pakistan until local production is ready, just like with F-14 parts they got from the black market.
    GarryB
    GarryB

    Posts : 25402
    Points : 25948
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  GarryB on Wed May 27, 2020 8:47 am

    Let's wait and see what aircraft they bringing out soon. And see what October brings most likely continued sanctions

    US sanctions are a given, but the real question is what sort of effort are they going to put into ensuring no one else sells weapons to them... what sanctions will they threaten Russia or China or the EU if they sell them weapons?

    Upgrades can be made by Russia &/ China for them.

    I would expect the Russians would prefer to install upgrades in their own aircraft rather than keep old US crap going... A flanker and a Fulcrum would be much more modern basic designs to start from... especially if Iran got the production licences to make them themselves... they could then look at Russian upgrades and perhaps work together with Russian companies to make new things that Iran wants... that suits Irans situation.

    There is no way Iraq would be allowed to give Iran some F-16s... no chance at all, but Iran building some MiG-29M2s for themselves, they could reduce costs by making an extra 40 or 50 for Iraq as well as a medium sized multirole aircraft. The F-5 developments as a cheap light fighter... sort of the equivalent of a more solid ground attack L-39 type plane... I would change each of the 20mm cannon for a twin barrel GSh-23 cannon though... and a Gefest & T upgrade for altitude bombing would be a good investment too.

    If so, the software/hardware can be removed & replaced with their own. Israel done it with its F-35s.
    I also doubt Iran needs or will get any Su-34s. Multirole Su-30/57s would suit them well.

    The US would not stand for any current or previous user of the F-16 to hand them over to Iran or China or anyone... if they still have relations with that country they will do everything they can to destroy that government... you don't buy US equipment... you rent it.

    If Iran could produce such software etc it would most likely replaced the F-14, F-4, F1 and build their own aircraft but guess what it hasnt.

    There are not that many countries that can design and build their own military aircraft that are actually competitive to the others available.

    Iran is not a super country, they didn't develop their own aircraft from scratch... they adapted aircraft they had bought, so they have no design capacity to create new products from scratch, but having said all that... very few other countries in the region could keep F-14s and F-4s flying all this time without direct support.

    Most F-16 operators in Europe would have to stop operations if US support dried up, because they can't operate them on their own either.

    And you forget weapons systems as well, its far easier for Iran to buy Russian or chinese aircraft and weapons for them and then get production rights than, try to buy USA aircraft such as F-16

    Buying F-16s from anywhere would be impossible and not really worth considering... Iran has no experience in operating or maintaining the jet... if the US withdrew its support for Iraqi F-16s I doubt they could operate for very long either and that is not a crack at the Iraqis... if the US stopped supporting dutch F-16s they wouldn't last long in operation either.

    It makes no sense for Iran to try to use an obsolete aircraft they have never used before from sources that cannot support normal operational use of the aircraft.

    With MiG-29s and Su-30s they can set up local production of parts and get the full support of the companies that make the plane as well as training to use them properly and weapons to use with them... they could probably produce some weapons locally...

    No chance of that with the F-16.

    No need to redesign F-16 airframes. They could get spares from Venezuela &/ Pakistan until local production is ready, just like with F-14 parts they got from the black market.

    There were no spare parts for the F-14 on the black market, the only time that happened was the illegal transfer of US Navy parts to Iran for money to spend on illegal operations in a central/south american country to support terrorists. Ollie North went to jail for that didn't he?

    Iraq will never supply F-16s to Iran because everything American they operate will not longer be supported and will stop working very soon and the US paid for "military" coup by paid US stooges that will basically turn them into Pakistan under military rule.

    Pakistan can't help either for exactly the same reasons... and Venezuela doesn't have the spare parts to keep their own planes flying let alone help Iran keep planes they don't have flying.





    d_taddei2
    d_taddei2

    Posts : 1770
    Points : 1950
    Join date : 2013-05-11
    Location : Scotland UK

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  d_taddei2 on Wed May 27, 2020 2:36 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:The ability to develop software isn't=the ability to build 3rd & 4th generation airframes & engines. They did put their own/copied weapons on their Western supplied/acquired fighters. No need to redesign F-16 airframes. They could get spares from Venezuela &/ Pakistan until local production is ready, just like with F-14 parts they got from the black market.

    Correction they only did with a basic light fighter. Not the F4, F1, F-14 so as I said the reason why is because they couldn't. And as me and garryb have said F-16 will never happen one it's old and two no country would send or sell F-16 to Iran. And Iran would have a complete nightmare trying to keep them flying. Iran will never obtain a USA aircraft again. It's far easier buying aircraft and weapons from allies and support can be given. Iran has pretty much been on its own with these old USA aircraft, Russia and China can't help them with these old USA aircraft. And F-16 isn't great aircraft either.

    What Ur suggesting wouldn't make any sense. Iran obtaining F-16 they would need to replace software and many parts then build copies of wear and tear parts, learn and produce parts for the engine and then start work on making compatible weapons. It's a complete no go scenario and they simply won't take that route. What Iran has achieved so far isn't that impressive over the decades in terms of aircraft. It's not really their fault either it takes decades, money, help, and expertise to master fighter aircraft production and that's without sanctions.

    I suspect another F-5 copy coming
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 4186
    Points : 4182
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed May 27, 2020 6:10 pm

    If need be, Iran could bribe some Iraqis & have them fly some or all 34 F-16s in- btw they r not old. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    Venezuela could disassemble hers & ship them there too- she too can't use them anymore.
    Iraq-US relations r not sustainable after Suleimani & another Iraqi commander killings. If US arms can't be used for long, Russia &/ China will sell their substitutes.
    If US-Turkey relations nose dive & F-16 support stopped, Turkey can also help with hers- she has 245 F-16s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_aircraft_of_the_Turkish_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    With nothing to lose, they can be get rid of to cut their losses, & at a profit at that.
    Iran won't need so many in flight status but will have enough airframes to keep a dozen, if not more, flying- at least as interceptors & escorts. It won't be any harder to sustain them than they did their F-1/4/5/14s all these years. Other engines & weapons can be adopted for them.
    So, theoretically it's not at all impossible.
    d_taddei2
    d_taddei2

    Posts : 1770
    Points : 1950
    Join date : 2013-05-11
    Location : Scotland UK

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  d_taddei2 on Wed May 27, 2020 6:54 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:If need be, Iran could bribe some Iraqis & have them fly some or all 34 F-16s in- btw they r not old. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    Venezuela could disassemble hers & ship them there too- she too can't use them anymore.
    Iraq-US relations r not sustainable after Suleimani & another Iraqi commander killings. If US arms can't be used for long, Russia &/ China will sell their substitutes.
    If US-Turkey relations nose dive & F-16 support stopped, Turkey can also help with hers- she has 245 F-16s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_aircraft_of_the_Turkish_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    With nothing to lose, they can be get rid of to cut their losses, & at a profit at that.
    Iran won't need so many in flight status but will have enough airframes to keep a dozen, if not more, flying- at least as interceptors & escorts. It won't be any harder to sustain them than they did their F-1/4/5/14s all these years. Other engines & weapons can be adopted for them.
    So, theoretically it's not at all impossible.

    Not old? They may be new built but remember these variants are C and D version which design came out in 1984 and export version which was specifically designed for Iraq (F-16IQ) won't have USA full spec. So yes they may be new built but old tech and downgraded spec. Iraq would never risk sending Iran F-16 as they would break their agreement with USA face sanctions and lose trust with other nations Iraq would not sacrifice that for the sake of earning a few Hundred million and be left with a big gap in its airforce.

    And in Ur last comment you even state Venezuela can't use theirs anymore because of sanctions so why would Iran want to repeat that?

    And turkey isn't going to send Iran their F-16 either. Not sure where u are dreaming of that scenario from, but it will never happen. Turkey would then face sanctions on its huge number of 245 F-16 and most likely any other USA equipment and for what ? To help Iran? Turkey couldn't risk losing their airforce capacity of grounding all their 245 F-16 because they wanted to make a cheap buck selling a squadron or two to Iran. Turkey can't just replace that many aircraft so quickly and without support and shitloads of money.

    It's taken Iran decades of pain and money to even start to make copies of F-5. Do you really think they are willing to do the same for F-16? No is the answer. Iran was put into that position of trying to keep aged aircraft in flying condition I highly doubt they would have chosen that scenario and certainly not a second time this time actually choosing to do so.

    So theoretically it category won't happen, it simply won't happen. It seems Ur really want Iran to have an airforce built up of second hand outdated crappy F-16.
    nomadski
    nomadski

    Posts : 1057
    Points : 1063
    Join date : 2017-01-02

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  nomadski on Wed May 27, 2020 8:21 pm


    All this prolonged argumentation is difficult for an old man like me to follow. But I say as easily as I can. Regarding purchasing military equipment from Russia or China, I agree Iran should do this, if :

    ( 1 ) Iran has the money to also manufacture and design similar equipment.

    ( 2 ) These purchased goods, offer real advantage, over home made stuff.

    ( 3 ) The spare parts ( weapons, perishables) most commonly needed for imports, are also manufactured in Iran.

    Take first point. If by buying say Russian planes, say a number that will detter attack from regional foe. A similar number to their planes. Then Iran can not continue with domestic manufacture and design of it's own planes. Even if these are needed in greater numbers, compared to foreign versions. And even if at higher total cost. Then Iran should not purchase. And only manufacture.

    The second point is about the actual combat effectiveness of say planes. This must be proved by simulating battle conditions against Iranian fighter jets. Using less than lethal or non - destructive warheads. That register only a hit. In this way, Iranians know, how many planes they need to buy, to replace with domestic fighter. Cost study.

    And finally, even if foreign planes are bought. Then they could not really fight a war, without a prolonged supply of spare parts. Russia or China, may stop these, in case they disagree with Iran war aims. And want to impose conditions. Therefore parts and weapons, mostly used and needing replacement, must be manufactured in Iran anyway. As must the new installation of all sensitive electronic communications and even Radars.

    However I agree that the Kowsar should not be messed with too much now. Since no huge improvements can be made, without changing entirely this plane. However a low RCS version with more powerful engines, is still possible with existing airframe. Together with low RCS, external payloads.

    If money is short, as it will be. Then buying small number of Russian planes is useful. Providing all the conditions I mentioned, are met.

    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 4186
    Points : 4182
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed May 27, 2020 9:19 pm

    Not old? They may be new built but remember these variants are C and D version which design came out in 1984.. So yes they may be new built but old tech and downgraded spec. ..It's taken Iran decades of pain and money to even start to make copies of F-5. Do you really think they are willing to do the same for F-16?
    Those F-16s r not older than their F-1/4/5/14s. They can just modify & use them with their own gear like those fighters, w/o any copying. Iran won't get top of the line fighters from any1 else either.

    Iraq would never risk sending Iran F-16 as they would break their agreement with USA face sanctions
    they can claim that those F-16s pilots defected; Iraq been under sanctions since 1991-2003; now, since it's allied with Iran, they r de-facto back, esp. with current low oil prices the Iraqi economy depends on.

    And in Ur last comment you even state Venezuela can't use theirs anymore because of sanctions so why would Iran want to repeat that?
    If it can still use F-1/4/5/14s, it could use F-16s too. In fact, it's easier to get spares for them than those older birds.

    And turkey isn't going to send Iran their F-16 either. ..Turkey would then face sanctions on its huge number of 245 F-16 and most likely any other USA equipment and for what? To help Iran? Turkey couldn't risk losing their airforce capacity of grounding all their 245 F-16 because they wanted to make a cheap buck selling a squadron or two to Iran. Turkey can't just replace that many aircraft so quickly and without support and shitloads of money.
    They could sell Iran cannibalized spares while getting new fighters from Russia/China. They can cooperate with Pakistan & Venezuela to keep them flying even under sanctions. The US supports Greece, so Turkey can pay in kind.
    d_taddei2
    d_taddei2

    Posts : 1770
    Points : 1950
    Join date : 2013-05-11
    Location : Scotland UK

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  d_taddei2 on Thu May 28, 2020 5:26 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Not old? They may be new built but remember these variants are C and D version which design came out in 1984.. So yes they may be new built but old tech and downgraded spec. ..It's taken Iran decades of pain and money to even start to make copies of F-5. Do you really think they are willing to do the same for F-16?
    Those F-16s r not older than their F-1/4/5/14s. They can just modify & use them with their own gear like those fighters, w/o any copying. Iran won't get top of the line fighters from any1 else either.

    Iraq would never risk sending Iran F-16 as they would break their agreement with USA face sanctions
    they can claim that those F-16s pilots defected; Iraq been under sanctions since 1991-2003; now, since it's allied with Iran, they r de-facto back, esp. with current low oil prices the Iraqi economy depends on.

    And in Ur last comment you even state Venezuela can't use theirs anymore because of sanctions so why would Iran want to repeat that?
    If it can still use F-1/4/5/14s, it could use F-16s too. In fact, it's easier to get spares for them than those older birds.

    And turkey isn't going to send Iran their F-16 either. ..Turkey would then face sanctions on its huge number of 245 F-16 and most likely any other USA equipment and for what? To help Iran? Turkey couldn't risk losing their airforce capacity of grounding all their 245 F-16 because they wanted to make a cheap buck selling a squadron or two to Iran. Turkey can't just replace that many aircraft so quickly and without support and shitloads of money.
    They could sell Iran cannibalized spares while getting new fighters from Russia/China. They can cooperate with Pakistan & Venezuela to keep them flying even under sanctions. The US supports Greece, so Turkey can pay in kind.

    The thing is as already stayed they haven't upgraded F1, F-14,F4 so if they haven't upgraded them then how on earth can they upgrade F-16?

    Turkey won't be allowed or risk selling Iran spare parts it's pretty simple if u understand geo politics and USA arms contracts.

    Iraq would still be held to account even in a defect situation. And u forget Iraq still uses many USA equipment and can't afford sanctions on that equipment.

    It seems to me you think turkey and Iraq are willing to face sanctions and equipment loss and equipment becoming defunct to satisfy Iran's needs. Neither of these countries are willing to sacrifice that for Iran.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 4186
    Points : 4182
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu May 28, 2020 6:10 am

    The thing is as already stayed they haven't upgraded F1, F-14,F4 so if they haven't upgraded them then how on earth can they upgrade F-16?
    1st, it would be adopted for the IrAF, & perhaps later modified/upgraded. it can be done on different levels, just to be current vs. most adversaries.

    Turkey won't be allowed or risk selling Iran spare parts it's pretty simple if u understand geo politics and USA arms contracts.
    If it comes to the point when Turkey has little or nothing to lose, she can sell all her American arms to the highest bidder. It's already on the US black list for buying S-400s & being an independent player in the ME.

    Iraq would still be held to account even in a defect situation. And u forget Iraq still uses many USA equipment and can't afford sanctions on that equipment.
    wait till they also buy S-400s & other Russian/Chinese weapons. Iran may substitute/pay for some of them in exchange for the F-16s & their spares.

    It seems to me you think turkey and Iraq are willing to face sanctions and equipment loss and equipment becoming defunct to satisfy Iran's needs.
    It's only a matter of time before that happens anyway. Turkey is a torn on the  NATO's side & is developing her own UCAVs fighters:
    https://theintercept.com/2019/05/14/turkey-second-drone-age/

    https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2019/9/30/turkey-to-develop-own-fighter-jets-erdogan-says-

    Iraq isn't safe for Western support personnel & its own military & industry/maintainers don't have the resources & skills to sustain all those arms.

    Neither of these countries are willing to sacrifice that for Iran.
    If true, that may change. They can secretly supply planes, parts & advisors with plausible deniability. Just stage/announce a few F-4/16 crashes before giving them to Iran. Her F-4s were upgraded by Israel & would be useful for some more years. I'm not saying it will absolutely happen, just that it may happen.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Thu May 28, 2020 6:15 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add text)
    d_taddei2
    d_taddei2

    Posts : 1770
    Points : 1950
    Join date : 2013-05-11
    Location : Scotland UK

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  d_taddei2 on Thu May 28, 2020 7:36 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    The thing is as already stayed they haven't upgraded F1, F-14,F4 so if they haven't upgraded them then how on earth can they upgrade F-16?
    1st, it would be adopted for the IrAF, & perhaps later modified/upgraded. it can be done on different levels, just to be current vs. most adversaries.

    Turkey won't be allowed or risk selling Iran spare parts it's pretty simple if u understand geo politics and USA arms contracts.
    If it comes to the point when Turkey has little or nothing to lose, she can sell all her American arms to the highest bidder. It's already on the US black list for buying S-400s & being an independent player in the ME.

    Iraq would still be held to account even in a defect situation. And u forget Iraq still uses many USA equipment and can't afford sanctions on that equipment.
    wait till they also buy S-400s & other Russian/Chinese weapons. Iran may substitute/pay for some of them in exchange for the F-16s & their spares.

    It seems to me you think turkey and Iraq are willing to face sanctions and equipment loss and equipment becoming defunct to satisfy Iran's needs.
    It's only a matter of time before that happens anyway. Turkey is a torn on the  NATO's side & is developing her own UCAVs fighters:
    https://theintercept.com/2019/05/14/turkey-second-drone-age/

    https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2019/9/30/turkey-to-develop-own-fighter-jets-erdogan-says-

    Iraq isn't safe for Western support personnel & its own military & industry/maintainers don't have the resources & skills to sustain all those arms.

    Neither of these countries are willing to sacrifice that for Iran.
    If true, that may change. They can secretly supply planes, parts & advisors with plausible deniability. Just stage/announce a few F-4/16 crashes before giving them to Iran. Her F-4s were upgraded by Israel & would be useful for some more years. I'm not saying it will absolutely happen, just that it may happen.

    USA will easily know if turkey or Iraq starts to supply Iran with F-16 regardless if they stage crashes. And turkey and Iraq use a fair amount of USA equipment and what ur suggesting is that they will risk that equipment. Iran won't pay for Iraq and turkey to replace all their F-16 (nearly 300 in total) when USA sanctions them for selling a couple of squadrons of F-16.

    And one think u forget when u mentioned that once Iraq and turkey do face sanctions that they will just sell USA made equipment to the highest bidder is nonsense statement because not only will they face sanctions so will those who choose to buy them and they too will be left with aircraft they can't replace parts etc and who on earth would put themselves in that position. It just simply won't happen.

    Iraq and turkey may not be on the best of terms with USA but they are still cooperating and both countries can't really afford tough USA sanctions to level of selling their enemy Iran USA made weapons. Iraq and turkey ain't that suicidal especially for Iran to get 1984 tech aircraft.

    U also mentioned that Iran even if it bought Russian or Chinese aircraft that it still wouldn't get high spec tech aircraft as no country does. There is a difference in getting new export downgraded aircraft and buying new aircraft that has 1984 tech and upgrades. Iraq bought F-16 that was a 1984 variant, and is also locked into the USA political and red tape that's attached to that contract. Or they could buy export version of Su-30, Mig-35 which although export and will be to an extend downgraded it's still not going to a 1984 variant. And no political and red tape nonsense. And they also benefit from decent weapon and parts support and most likely get some production rights as well. With ur crazy option of buying F-16 that's old variant and then having to sort out the parts and maintenance nightmare it's not worth it.

    Iran will never get F-16. And turkey or Iraq will never give Iran it's F-16.
    GarryB
    GarryB

    Posts : 25402
    Points : 25948
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  GarryB on Thu May 28, 2020 7:41 am

    If need be, Iran could bribe some Iraqis & have them fly some or all 34 F-16s in- btw they r not old

    You are not getting the point... with the F-4s and F-5s and F-14s the Iranians had a decade of experience using them, they had men trained to fly them, they have all the manuals and do all the flight training themselves, and have had plenty of time to learn to support and maintain those aircraft to an operational level.

    They have never used F-16s and have no experience at all with them and they are totally different from the aircraft before them... when they came out I remember them being called the electric jet because of all the new electronics and computers inside.

    To take on some F-16s now would be useless... even if every Iraqi F-16 pilot flew their F-16 to Iran how will Iran get all the support equipment and spares... and operational manuals and ground equipment.... and even if they could get it all from Venezuela... Venezuela wasn't able to keep them flying... they require parts and without those spare parts they have to stop flying...

    Iraq would face serious backlashes from the US if it attempted to help Iran this way and their ability to help over the long term would be poor... at the very least the US would cut them off from spare parts too and so they wouldn't be able to use any they still had for long either let alone support Iranian aircraft too.

    More importantly the F-16 from a hostile country would be a brand new type totally different from anything they already have in service they couldn't operate and couldn't support... in comparison buying MiG-29M2s from the Russians... perhaps even with local assembly and limited production themselves is much easier and much more realistic and would result in a much more capable plane that they can get parts for... they already have MiG-29s in service... they could swap some old models for the new models and expand their fleet and replace their F-4s with it... they could pay for it all with oil... it is not like they don't have enough oil, and as I mentioned they could produce a few extra MiG-29M2s perhaps for Iraq or Lebanon or Syria... they could get paid for production with some profit for them and a percentage for royalties to MiG... everyone is happy... except the US and Israel... but who cares about them.

    Venezuela could disassemble hers & ship them there too- she too can't use them anymore.

    The reason she can't use them any more is a lack of spares... if there are no new parts to use how can Iran copy them to make their own spare parts?

    Venezuela would be transfering aircraft they can't use to Iran... who wont be able to use them either...

    Iraq-US relations r not sustainable after Suleimani & another Iraqi commander killings. If US arms can't be used for long, Russia &/ China will sell their substitutes.
    If US-Turkey relations nose dive & F-16 support stopped, Turkey can also help with hers- she has 245 F-16

    I agree with what you are saying, but the fundamental question I would ask is what is so damn wonderful about the F-16 for countries with problems with the US are so desperate to buy them and use them?

    Surely the best solution is to choose an alternative where spares and support are not provided exclusively by a whiny moaning bitch... whether that is a MiG-29M2 or Su-30 or something Chinese... very simply the F-16 without support is more of a problem than an asset and while Venezuelas problem is clear and Iraq and Turkeys problem is not so completely clear... why would Iran want another problem?

    Iran uses US aircraft because that is what they are familiar with but they also use Su-24 and MiG-29 aircraft too... if Russia cut them off or screwed them they would likely work out how to support those aircraft so they kept working too. That is just about independence, but when you can buy the real thing then you do... trying to develop your own ability to support someone elses product is hard work and not good use of resources...

    If they had better relations with the Soviet Union they could have dumped all their American planes and just bought Soviet planes instead but the reality is that the Soviet Union weren't best buddies with Iran either.

    Many people think there is a good side and a bad side and all the good is America and its allies and the bad is everyone else working together against the good... sometimes that is true and countries that get screwed by the US work together, but that does not make them friends or allies... Russia and Iran do work together... In Syria they are clearly working together... but they are not buddies...

    Russia might block some of Americas more toxic motions at the UN against Iran, but only because it is the right thing to do.

    [qutoe]With nothing to lose, they can be get rid of to cut their losses, & at a profit at that.
    Iran won't need so many in flight status but will have enough airframes to keep a dozen, if not more, flying- at least as interceptors & escorts. It won't be any harder to sustain them than they did their F-1/4/5/14s all these years. Other engines & weapons can be adopted for them.
    So, theoretically it's not at all impossible.[/quote]

    Theoretically it is very unlikely... and in comparison it would be much cheaper to make an order with OAC and buy some MiGs or Sukhois or talk to the Chinese and buy some of their planes... they would pay less and the aircraft would be up and useful much faster and there would be a lot less that the US could do about it.

    Iraq would never risk sending Iran F-16 as they would break their agreement with USA face sanctions and lose trust with other nations Iraq would not sacrifice that for the sake of earning a few Hundred million and be left with a big gap in its airforce.

    Normally I would say this would be a good thing for Iraq and Iran by driving the Americans out of Iraq but I really don't think they would leave that easy and like in Syria would remain just to make things worse for everyone around them... like US troops in Germany and Japan and South Korea... and Cuba...

    It would cost Iraq too much... first of all the US would cut off all supplies for F-16s just so they don't go to Iran.

    Who is going to train the Iranians how to support the F-16s... the pilots that fly them there?

    Terrible idea...

    Turkey does not like Iran and would not help them with F-16 parts...

    If money is short, as it will be. Then buying small number of Russian planes is useful. Providing all the conditions I mentioned, are met.

    I would like to see Russia accept Iranian oil as payment so essentially it could be done largely free.

    I think local production at the very least assembly and production of support components would also need to be assured but because most of the time it is spares support where companies make most of their money then there needs to be an agreement regarding volume limits and exports, because if things change and Iran becomes hostile Russia does not want to compete on the international market for spare parts with Iran for spares for its own products.

    A royalty paid in oil would probably suffice... even transfers across the Caspian Sea in mini oil tankers that can navigate the Russian inland canal system so it can be taken to a processing plant and converted into fuels and used domestically in Russia... OAK could open a franchise of petrol stations to sell it to get their money effectively...

    Those F-16s r not older than their F-1/4/5/14s. They can just modify & use them with their own gear like those fighters, w/o any copying. Iran won't get top of the line fighters from any1 else either.

    Once the UN sanctions come off why would Russia not sell them what they want?

    they can claim that those F-16s pilots defected; Iraq been under sanctions since 1991-2003; now, since it's allied with Iran, they r de-facto back, esp. with current low oil prices the Iraqi economy depends on.

    How could Iran even use the few that defect? It would take them ten years to learn the plane inside and out and to design and make spec plans for the consumables and produce them... a plane they have no experience with... they would be better off selling them to Pakistan or back to Iraq or the US for cash.

    If it can still use F-1/4/5/14s, it could use F-16s too. In fact, it's easier to get spares for them than those older birds.

    They were trained by the makers of those older planes to use and to service and support them... they have an enormous pool of pilots and ground crew with 40 + years of experience with those planes... so adaptations to suit their needs were necessary when official support stopped. The fact that they were prepared to give money to their hated enemy to buy spare parts shows you it is not easy doing it on your own.... the US had murdered almost 300 shooting down an Iranian airbus... it is to their credit that they kept those planes in the air as long as they have... but the F-16 is totally different.

    They could sell Iran cannibalized spares while getting new fighters from Russia/China.

    Would be cheaper to make their own spare parts for certain components for their own licence produced models... plus what other things does Turkey sell to Iran?

    The US supports Greece, so Turkey can pay in kind.

    There are lots of little reasons why they might, but fundamentally it is 10,000 times simpler and cheaper and quicker to just buy the rights to make a plane yourself than to try to work out how to do it all yourself. They are clever and very capable, but them trying to make F-16s... well why would you bother...

    If they can pay mostly in oil at a time when they have oil but fewer customers because of US sanctions, then paying Russia in oil for permission to locally build fighter planes to replace their existing types makes sense. Whether the Russians are interested and Iran is interested is another question, but being totally honest and not wanting to besmerch the Iranians in any way I think a modern F-5 is a good idea but making a modern capable medium or heavy fighter is probably beyond them... and that is largely because there are not actually that many countries who can make good medium and heavy fighters... I mean Russia and China and France and the US and the countries that built the Typhoon together as a group.... that is not a huge list and many of the best Chinese options are copies of purchased Soviet planes too... might add Japan but they work with US companies they basically do to American planes what India did with an Su-30MK.

    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 4186
    Points : 4182
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu May 28, 2020 8:24 am

    if there are no new parts to use how can Iran copy them to make their own spare parts? Venezuela would be transfering aircraft they can't use to Iran... who wont be able to use them either...
    the bad/worn out parts+their drawings/specs would be enough to reverse engineer them. They did it with F-4/14s; the Iranians have more skilled personnel & experience to do that.
    If sanctions r not lifted & Russia can't sell offencive arms to Iran, the surplus F-16s could be an option. They been using similar J-7s & F-1s- those r easier to fly & maintain then their F-4/14s.
    If the Chinese could build their J-10 based on Lavi & similar to F-16, I don't see why Iranians, who copied/upgraded their F-5, can't build a fighter based on the F-16.
    Turkey does not like Iran and would not help them with F-16 parts...
    that may change; if not, Pakistan, Russia, Venezuela or China could get parts, good or bad, from Turkey & supply them to Iran. It's a small World!
    GarryB
    GarryB

    Posts : 25402
    Points : 25948
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  GarryB on Thu May 28, 2020 2:25 pm

    the bad/worn out parts+their drawings/specs would be enough to reverse engineer them. They did it with F-4/14s; the Iranians have more skilled personnel & experience to do that.

    With those parts they had old worn out parts but they also had brand new parts they could hardness test and strength test to work out how durable and strong they need to be when brand new. With a type that has no new parts you have to guess and if you guess wrong and make parts too hard or not hard enough you will have problems...

    If sanctions r not lifted & Russia can't sell offencive arms to Iran, the surplus F-16s could be an option.

    America withdrew from the deal so they have no say any more regarding the deal. As far as Russia is concerned Iran is following its part of the deal as far as the the EU is which is good enough.

    The US is claiming it is still part of the deal so they can claim Iran is not meeting their commitments... but they left the deal and now have no say... HAHAHA

    If they demand a say Russia should back out of the deal rendering it null and void and just trade openly with Iran and sell them anything they like.

    They been using similar J-7s & F-1s- those r easier to fly & maintain then their F-4/14s.

    They get spares and support from China... just like Iran got spares and support from Russia to operate Su-24 and MiG-29 aircraft that they have.

    If the Chinese could build their J-10 based on Lavi & similar to F-16, I don't see why Iranians, who copied/upgraded their F-5, can't build a fighter based on the F-16.

    It is not that they can't.... it is that they wont... why bother wasting time learning to support an aircraft they don't have and have never used before?

    And if they could do it so easily then why not build F-22s instead... I am sure they could make them cheaper...

    that may change; if not, Pakistan, Russia, Venezuela or China could get parts, good or bad, from Turkey & supply them to Iran. It's a small World!

    What is so wonderful about the F-16 that Iran would want that piece of crap?

    They have never mentioned any interest in it in the past...

    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 4186
    Points : 4182
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu May 28, 2020 6:49 pm

    What is so wonderful about the F-16 that Iran would want that piece of crap?

    The F-16 has also been procured to serve in the air forces of 25 other nations.As of 2015, it is the world's most numerous fixed-wing aircraft in military service. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16_Fighting_Falcon

    The F-16 is still in demand today, and many air forces are looking to replace aging inventories with F-16s.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16_Fighting_Falcon_operators

    They must be good if Iran's neighbors Iraq, Bahrain, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Pakistan & Turkey operate them.
    They have never mentioned any interest in it in the past...
    FYI: Iran placed an order for 160 aircraft for the former Imperial Iranian Air Force (IIAF) in 1976, with an option for a further 140. Due to the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the order was cancelled and no deliveries were made. 55 of these aircraft were later delivered to the Israeli Air Force.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16_Fighting_Falcon_operators#Iran

    If the Shah regime stayed in power, Iran could have up to 300 F-16s.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Thu May 28, 2020 6:53 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add text)
    Isos
    Isos

    Posts : 5829
    Points : 5821
    Join date : 2015-11-06

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Isos on Thu May 28, 2020 7:14 pm

    F-16 is outclassed by eurocanards including upgraded french Mirage. The Shah had as much choice as Saud family today regarding weapons... they didn't ordered it because it was good but because they had to (US ally).

    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 4186
    Points : 4182
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu May 28, 2020 7:26 pm

    I bet the Mirage would cost more to buy & operate. Iran had to replace its F-4s & the F-16 was a natural choice. If Iran had some of them delivered before 1979, they would be used in war with Iraq & still be flying just like their F-4/5/14s.
    Rodion_Romanovic
    Rodion_Romanovic

    Posts : 1002
    Points : 1000
    Join date : 2015-12-30

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Thu May 28, 2020 9:57 pm

    Yeah, having f16 in the 80s  would have been quite useful....

    Now? Not so much...

    Especially since they cannot get them with modern electronics but just some spares and old scraps from countries that cannot operate them anymore.

    I would understand if you were talking about f14, that have been used extensively by Iran and for which they have a lot of experience in operating and maintaining them. Unfortunately the only other country operating them was the US, and except for a few museum pieces all the aircrafts and spare parts have been destroyed so that they could not be delivered to Iran by the black market...


    Anyway, as I said before, in 5 months they can order mig29M, su30 and establish joint production of those, receiving training and engineering support from Russia. Or do the same with China. Why should they buy scraps (for which they do not have any pilot, mechanic or engineer with any experience with them) and spend years trying to reverse engineering them?
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

    Posts : 4186
    Points : 4182
    Join date : 2016-08-15
    Location : AZ, USA

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu May 28, 2020 10:21 pm

    ..in 5 months they can order mig29M, su30 and establish joint production of those, receiving training and engineering support from Russia. Or do the same with China.
    getting a squadron worth of them will take a long time, while off the shelf "turn key" F-16s could be delivered starting today.
    Why should they buy scraps (for which they do not have any pilot, mechanic or engineer with any experience with them) and spend years trying to reverse engineering them?
    Maintainers & pilots from Iraq, Venezuela & Pakistan could help train the locals. Iran is in undeclared war & enemy arms & equipment been pressed to service by others before. There may be enough F-16s to keep a few squadrons flying w/o any reverse engineering of the entire plane.
    How do u suppose they keep their F-4/5s, not to metion the bigger F-14s, in flying condition?
    Rodion_Romanovic
    Rodion_Romanovic

    Posts : 1002
    Points : 1000
    Join date : 2015-12-30

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Thu May 28, 2020 11:08 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    ..in 5 months they can order mig29M, su30 and establish joint production of those, receiving training and engineering support from Russia. Or do the same with China.
    getting a squadron worth of them will take a long time, while off the shelf "turn key" F-16s could be delivered starting today.
    Why should they buy scraps (for which they do not have any pilot, mechanic or engineer with any experience with them) and spend years trying to reverse engineering them?
    Maintainers & pilots from Iraq, Venezuela & Pakistan could help train the locals. Iran is in undeclared war & enemy arms & equipment been pressed to service by others before. There may be enough F-16s to keep a few squadrons flying w/o any reverse engineering of the entire plane.
    How do u suppose they keep their F-4/5s, not to metion the bigger F-14s, in flying condition?
    they could do the same with mig29. If I am not mistaken Russia got back some older export versione of mig29 from Malesia and other countries, when such customers ordered su 30...

    Some of those are still in decent conditions, even if in need of modernisation.
    If Iran want something ready now, while waiing for the more modern su30 and mig29M they could get some older mig 29 to be modernised to smt/upg standard...

    Btw, Hungary was trying to sell their old mig29 and spare parts for a very cheap price... unfortunately Iran probably will not be able to buy those even after the UN sanctions will be gone, since Hungary is a NATO country...

    And anyway Russia could produce new mig29 with a good pace, if Iran pays for them...

    Sponsored content

    Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models. Empty Re: Irans prospects to operate/copy the F-16 as replacement of older US models.

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:03 pm