RTN wrote: GarryB wrote:
Note TOR and Pantsir can fire while moving too.
I realize that. In order to target these moving targets, U.S/NATO will soon be using Dispensing rocket payloads.
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You are highly miss-informed about Russian and Isreali hardware capabilities.
Just like everyone else is telling you , israel do not have the capabilities , (or at least have not show until now) to have capabilities to jam syrian air defenses , to the point that makes their air defenses useless.
So far for more than 5 years already , Syrian air defenses have shown the ability to intercept anything israel throw at Syria ,including glide bombs , and loitering munition ,deliya , popeye , every standard missile on israel inventory , have been intercepted . The interception rate of pantsirs /tors appears to be from 70% to 90%.
So if israel jamming capabilities are being used to attack syria , then it doesn't look they work all the time at least when it comes to missiles , because most of them are being intercepted , last attack of israel 100% interception rate , according to Russia defense ministry.
This is not saying that israel don't have a secret hardware not yet used against syria , and could do it , it only means ,that until now, israel have not shown the ability to make effectively bypass syrian air defenses.. if you were to measure israel missiles performance , their success rate had to be , about from 10% to 30%.
If Israel jamming capabilities was so great.. then they will not had a need to waste so many missiles don't you think ? Because the last time they destroyed a pantsir in syria , they had to use saturation
attacks to defeat it , something that will always work. if you have 5 bullets ,you can only shoot 5 things and not 6 , so any system of defense with rockets or missiles , can be defeated if you overwhelm it with more missiles ,that the system can intercept. so this is how israel have been targeting those Tors and pantsirs in syria and armenia too.. they fly low with their drones and waited until more than a 12 missiles were intercepted , to attack the air defenses. Russia military thanks to the syrian lesson , have improved their pantsirs abilities to carry twice more missiles? i think , the new number is 24 missiles per pantsir. so this automatically improved by up to twice their performance by carrrying twice more missiles , and the missiles are more smaller and cheaper too now to produce , so making a lot more expensive and more complicated for israel , to succeed in any attack on syria. This is the reason why some israeli missiles ends crashing on civilians zones , far away of their targets ,they likely were jammed or blinded by Russian electronic warfare.
-Another thing you ignore , is that pantsirs can operate in passive mode , using only thermal/infra red optics which you can't jam.
-another thing you also not aware is that Russia military have decoys to fool the missile guidance of those missiles israel fires. whether Russia give them ,to syrian military to use them or not can be argued , but this can be very effective in blinding those self guided missiles with artificial intelligence ,that israel or NATO have.
-Finally one last thing you not aware , is that Russia military , have spoken several times , to have weapons to fry electronics of planes and missiles, so literary turn them off ,with an electronic EMP attack. They have shown this capabilities in their media with mines , a truck armed with crazy radars , microwave everything up to 5km to 10km and so anything caught by the microwave attack is literary fried and simply stop working. So any slow flying missile that is caught in a powerful electromagnetic pulse attack , will be disable and will not explode or explode earlier than reach its target or simply will stop working and fall.. this is very likely the way Russia have been able to capture several israeli missiles in near perfect conditions. by disabling their electronics with a emp attack.
There is a very famous incident commented a lot in military forums ,of an expensive drone of israel shotdown by russia using electronic warfare , that the drone simply collapse and crash when was flying over lebanon.
you also have the well documented case of Russia jamming NATO satellites gps communications ,with their biggest exercises in norway , that norway ,sweeden and findland accused russia of jamming their gps .. and even one destroyer crashed with a tanker ,for the difficulty this jamming caused in entire scandinavian zone . so far Russia have shown to have plenty of very powerful and very useful tools , to complicate dramatically any NATO or israeli war operations in any zone by interfering their satellite communications and tactical bombing operations.
all said , there are a lot of things , a lot of ways , Russia have to stop israel ability to attack syria ,
naturally all this things cost a lot more money for Russia , that they will like to invest . because after all Syria is not paying anything for all this air defenses , this comes from Russia pockets , and so for russia is not in their interest to deploy a very expensive and very dense network of air defenses in syria from pantsirs ,to tors ,to s-400 , intercepting everything , and helping israel airforce to spy
on them. and figure out newer tactics to counter it.
All this abilities of israel to attack syria every week , with a minority of the missiles they launch , is only possible ,because of the geography of syria ,that makes it difficult to scan low flying planes , but also and more importantly because of putin weakness and rules of engagement versus them, that only allows targeting missiles and not the planes that launch them.
in a real war , between russia and israel , none of this minimal success of israel , attacking syria will happen , hit and run scenarios will not be possible. in a real war , russian military will not just sit there intercepting missiles ,as they have been doing for 6 years already and go the offensive and bomb israel military bases back.. and use the russian airforce and s-400s to push back israeli planes .
The chances of israeli airforce to hit any military base in syria , if russia declared war against Israel ,will be zero , if they armed syria in the same way kaliningrad or crimea is armed , and Russia passed to the offensive and started targeting israeli airforce and israeli bases too. because in a real war , israel will need to be on the defense and their planes no longer will be allowed to ever get anywhere close to syria. likely destroyed while in the military bases or as soon they take off with s-400s. because russia long range air defenses can cover completely all israel airspace . they deploy s-400 in egypt and syria and israel airforce can be hit from the rear and the front , from all sides.. Russia military if they really wanted it , they can effectively neutralize the israel airforce in one day , by surrounding israel with s-400s and hitting those israeli military bases with hypersonic strikes.
israel alone is not a match for the full might of Russian military in case of a real war . They will need to be carried by US military. Isreal airforce is very capable without a doubt , but it will not last long , in a real war versus russia. israel will completely depend on US for its protection , in case of a war with a military force way above their level . Even iran could defeat israel if russia really wanted it , and give them all the weapons they need to push back israel, all the modern planes and tanks and military tech.
Israel knows very well ,they will lose their military edge , if iran get nuclear weapons and this is why they are so scared and paranoid about iran getting nukes . they know very well ,they have no chance versus a nuclear iran , with a modernized army by russia.
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