some major important points...
- we don't know for sure ,whether russia electronic jamming or turkey jamming worked or not ,we have reports from both sides how successful their side was in countering the other side .
- i have read reports from yms twiiter who appears to have close inside info from SAA that Russia was using them..
- there is evidence of manipulated videos released by turkey military ,of turkey drones defeating easily pantsirs..
but that later turned to be models ,used by UAE and not by syria.. so likely videos from lybia used as proof
of turkey drone campaign success.
-The SAA facebook page is on record saying Turkey videos are largely exagerrated and that the pantsirs in the video are not theirs.. but footage from lybia.. so if turkey military need to use fake videos ,to proof their drones
success. then a big question mark had to be made on any releasing footage by turkey... they have shown commitment to even lie ,in order to raise the morale of its military.. so turkey video massacring saa at least the some of the pantsir footage is confirmed fake.. not from syria.. and tanks and artillery destroyed could be from syria or lybia or iraq ,and from any time . part of the videos could be fake or all of it perhaps? nobody knows.
- the question of whether russia electronic jamming worked or not vs Tukey F-16 nato amraam missiles..
we will never know it for sure , based on media reports alone. what is however important to understand,
that for russia is not a good idea to warn their enemies of their vulnerabilities of their weapons..and planes and their weakness.. because that will allow them to correct their mistakes and improve their missiles later..
If it happened , that russian electronic warfare had the upper hand, the ideal way for russia is to jam the missiles and stay quiet about it
.. and not let their enemies to know ,their missiles are now obsolete against Russian airforce armed with electronic defense.
So if i was in russia minister of defense shoes.. and knew that a limited war with turkey was going to happen, then i will make sure to test as many defensive and offensive weapons i can against their military ,i will hire at least 2 russian well trained pilots ,to fly 2 big syrian old planes , and tell them to bait turkey airforce to fire their AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles... and the first one without electronic defense. only armed with modern decoys and flares,, and the second one armed with electronic defense.. and order them to fly only above SAA controlled territory. so if the planes shot down ,the pilots who eject can be rescue.. such kind of test will be worthy of sacrifice an su-24 plane.. because it allows Russia to understand if their electronic defenses works or not , so shoigu will be a fool if he don't create conditions for americans modern weapons being used against their planes..
the information learned will be worth of gold and save many lives ,and could make the difference into avoiding
nasty surprises in case one day Russian airforce ,need to face the american one. so far the ideal conditions appears to be in place.. 3 planes flew over SAA controlled territory , 2 were shotdown apparenly and pilots in both of them ejected safely.. and third plane escaped. so that said , even if we don't know the official story ,
the possibilities the claims that the jamming happened are real...because things were for testing russia electronic warfare.. it will be unthinkable ,that russia did not used electronic warfare not a single time ,to help SAA or their own planes and base ,to protect russian soldiers and syrian military.
what is clear however for me.. is the the russian defense ministry ,was bragging on sputnik ,that... there will be no more turkey drones for now..
. he told that , the day ,was reported on twiiter that turkey lost at least
5 drones.. so if i were to bet.. Russian air defenses did worked and did their job quite well ,at least that day..
When it comes to defending airspace.. this is never easy thing to do.. because of the many tactics that can be used to defeat air defenses.. like old but proven saturation attacks.. it will always work.. if you have 5 bullets in a gun ,you can only kill 5 terrorist with the gun.. not 6. and pantsirs needs reloading each time fire 12 missiles?..
is their vulnerable time. also exist decoys to fool missiles into a miss.. and also electronic warfare and so elevated hill and mountains, flying low, can be used to hide planes and drones from radars..
last but not least air defenses to work the way it should be , they should be used at their maximun range
and push enemies far away of positions.. you want to defend.. allowing them to get close is a mistake ,and
the syrian geography and position the SAA is fighting ,is a major disadvantage ,the more close they are to turkey border.. Air defenses are not supposed to be used as purely defensive only and enemy planes needs to be pushed far away ,so they can't even try ..
this means ,that if ERdogan really goes full retard..and declare war on russia.. he can just send a raid of 50 planes on russia air base.. and strike at the base first with dozens of artillery cross border ,and follow it with
a salvo attack of those many planes.. and eventually the all air defenses there will be overwhelmed.. is not a
technology issue ,but a design issue.. that Russian base in syria is not designed to stop the entire turkey airforce in an attack.. Syria theater ,is the worst place in the world to deploy s-400s and s-300s ,patriots or s-500s or anything.. is simply too close to enemy borders and any nato self propelled artillery can reach it.. or any major strike airforce groups can overwhelm it.. is a miracle russia haven't lost an s-300s yet.. or an s-400.
if it happens, it will not be the air defenses to blame.. but the region that Russian base is deployed is nearly
impossible to fully protect,.. so close to turkey border... just look at US base in iraq.. they could not even intercept 12 missiles.. fired by iran..
according to russian defense ministry.. the claims
by turkey over destroyed pantsirs are not correct..
On March 10, the Russian Defense Ministry commented on recent claims by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed that Turkish forces had destroyed 8 Russian-made Pantsir air defense systems operated by the Syrian Armed Forces. The destruction, Erdogan said, during the active phase of Turkey’s Operation Spring Shield.
In its comment on these claims, the Russian military said that the number provided is “more than overestimation” (i.e. fake). According to the Russians, data received by the Turkish leader on the combat effectiveness of the use of strike UAVs in Idlib province are untrue.
Moscow recalled that the main air defense means and measures of the Syrian military, including Pantsir air defense systems, have been and remain focused primarily on the area of the country’s capital, Damascus. There were only 4 Pantsir air defense systems deployed in Greater Idlib, the defense ministry said adding that 2 of them were in fact demaged. Currently, the damaged systems are undergoing repair works.
So erdogan claimed he destroyed 8 pantsirs.. the Russian defense ministry says that it was “more than overestimation”... so they basically said it was propaganda Erdogan claims.. but admitted 2 pantsirs are under reparation..
so either ,2 pantsirs were hit and partially disable.. it could be by drones or by artillery shelling that they are vulnerable.. or it could be the Russian defense ministry just throwing a bone to Erdogan ,to not humiliate them
and so told ,2 of them are under repairs.. my best guess is that 2 pantsirs possibly were damaged by turkey artillery. they could have done that using turkey outpost and artillery shelling.. pantsirs were not designed to
shield any place from mortar artillery.. you need lazer defenses for that. it shouldnt be hard for turkey to disable pantsirs when they have outpost with artillery withing range of syria airdefenses. like i said before , Syria is the most extreme scenario possible ,specially idlib ,to deploy any kind of air defense.. because any air defenses in idlib will be withing artillery range always. from any turkey outpost.. and so it is Russian base too.