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    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2

    Isos
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    Post  Isos Tue Mar 02, 2021 2:09 am

    I already see that being used in mass attacks against parked aircraft in airports or AD systems.

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    Post  LMFS Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:58 am

    It was NATO that first proposed such weapons to challenge increasingly efficient enemy AD, but paradoxically they are much more vulnerable to those drones than the Russians pwnd

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    Post  kvs Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:37 am

    ult wrote:
    kvs wrote:It is a smaller analogue of the US model.   They should have enough experience now to get a better version out.  

    MQ-1 Predator is:
    Length: 27 ft 0 in (8.23 m)
    Wingspan: 48 ft 7 in (14.8 m)
    Height: 6 ft 11 in (2.1 m)
    Gross weight: 2,249 lb (1,020 kg)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator

    Orion is:
    Length: 8 m
    Wingspan: 16,3 m
    Height: 3,2 m
    Gross weight: 1000 kg

    https://kronshtadt.ru/en/products/bespilotnyij-kompleks-orion


    WTF crack are you smoking? Where did I refer to the MQ-I Predator in my post...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-9_Reaper

    Length: 36 ft 1 in (11 m)
    Wingspan: 65 ft 7 in (20 m)
    Height: 12 ft 6 in (3.81 m)
    Empty weight: 4,901 lb (2,223 kg)
    Max takeoff weight: 10,494 lb (4,760 kg)
    Fuel capacity: 4,000 lb (1,800 kg)
    Payload: 3,800 lb (1,700 kg)

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 MQ-9_Reaper_CBP

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 Orion-10

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    Post  GarryB Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:50 am

    The US likely spent a lot of money on the aerodynamics of their UAVs.... if you want something similar to operate at the same speed and same height with a similar power engine with similar weight and equipment then adopting that external shape can save a lot of time and money... and the irony if you decided to design a new design totally from scratch there is a good chance it will look similar anyway.

    Everyone does it... it is not an accident that the F-15 is basically the same shape and layout to a MiG-25.

    If the ukies think UAVs are going to be the solution to their problems, they are going to love Molniya

    Mini versions for shorter range and shorter duration use could be based on 122mm aircraft rockets and carried in standard rocket pods.

    We know they are doing this because they already said the new rectangular rocket pods have built in wireless charging systems for charging batteries in UAVs and other smart rockets while inside the rocket pod.

    The have had MALD type drone/jammer/decoys in 122mm calibre for a while too... a Helicopter like a Ka-52 scout helo could launch a rocket UAV ahead into a valley or other exposed area to look for targets and enemy signals and transmit information and target locations back to the helicopter that could uplink them to HQ and then the rocket UAV could attack any targets of opportunity or just the air defence units spotted... other targets could be engaged with stand off attack weapons like anti radiation missiles and Hermes ground attack missiles.

    I already see that being used in mass attacks against parked aircraft in airports or AD systems.

    The west has opened Pandoras box with the use of light attack drones... they would already struggle with low flying cruise missiles, but now they will have to deal with hypersonic missiles and low flying subsonic stealthy missiles and drones of all types and sizes....
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    Post  GarryB Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:56 am

    WTF crack are you smoking? Where did I refer to the MQ-I Predator in my post...

    Just looking at the images you can clearly see a different focus... in the American drone you can see the bump where the cockpit would be for the satellite link antenna and just behind that another antenna... perhaps GPS... the air intake for the engine is on top to hide it from the ground... because obviously they expect serious ground based air defence.

    It means you can send it to the other side of the planet like Pakistan to kill people without any local control that locals could target and attack to defend themselves.

    The Russian drone the antennas point down for ground based datalinks supporting forces locally and the air intake is mounted underneath because this thing will fly high by it is hiding from US and western satellites and will most likely be supporting ground based forces... likely mainly special forces teams with situational awareness and the ability to strike a couple of targets if needed.

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    Post  JohninMK Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:35 pm

    The Molniya


    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 Evd6eauWQAE70SZ?format=png&name=small

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    Post  George1 Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:29 am

    JohninMK wrote:The Molniya


    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 Evd6eauWQAE70SZ?format=png&name=small

    it is like a cruise missile
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    Post  ult Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:53 am

    kvs wrote:
    WTF crack are you smoking?   Where did I refer to the MQ-I Predator in my post...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-9_Reaper

    Length: 36 ft 1 in (11 m)
    Wingspan: 65 ft 7 in (20 m)
    Height: 12 ft 6 in (3.81 m)
    Empty weight: 4,901 lb (2,223 kg)
    Max takeoff weight: 10,494 lb (4,760 kg)
    Fuel capacity: 4,000 lb (1,800 kg)
    Payload: 3,800 lb (1,700 kg)

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 MQ-9_Reaper_CBP

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 Orion-10


    I directly compared it to MQ-1 because I was talking about the number of drones produced, and compared it to its direct competitor - MQ-1. But you barged in with your "it's a smaller analogue". It is not. Now for some reason you are saying that you were comparing it to MQ-9, but it doesn't matter what you are comparing it to, because it's not the niche it's supposed to take. There are 1 ton, 5 ton, and 20 ton categories, as stated by Russian MoD. What you should compare MQ-9 to is Sirius and Altius.

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 8769492_original

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 8760299_original

    Length: 11,6 m
    Wingspan: 28,5 m
    Max takeoff weight: 5000 kg
    Payload: 1000 kg

    So I have a question. Are you fucking dumb and can't count to 5 ton? MQ-9 is 4800 kg.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:37 am

    ult wrote:There are 1 ton, 5 ton, and 20 ton categories, as stated by Russian MoD.

    Do you know any specific reasons why there isn't a 10 ton class?
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    Post  Daniel_Admassu Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:51 pm

    JohninMK wrote:The Molniya


    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 Evd6eauWQAE70SZ?format=png&name=small

    Nice looking genuinely indigenous design, unlike the Orion versions that simply look like catchup efforts to the US Predator / Reaper models. Those General Atomics products sure look very much refined aerodynamically and functionally, one has to admit.

    By the way, granted this Molniya mockup is a scale model, how large is it going to be? Any official figures?
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:51 pm

    The project of the unmanned complex of group use "Lightning"
    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 1614691238_molnija-3
    The leadership of the military department gets acquainted with the new UAV. Photo of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

    The domestic defense industry is developing new concepts and solutions in the field of unmanned aviation... Recently it became known that the Kronstadt company, which has already created several unmanned systems, is working on the so-called project. complex of group use. The draft design "Lightning" proposes the use of a "swarm" of several UAVs to support the manned aircraft.

    According to sources ...

    On February 26, a delegation from the Ministry of Defense visited the production site of the Kronstadt company in Moscow. The management of the department was shown production facilities and serial products under construction, as well as a number of new developments. In particular, an unknown aircraft-type drone was shown for the first time and a new code - "Lightning" - was sounded.

    1 March RIA News has published an interesting message about the further development of unmanned technologies. With reference to an unnamed source in the defense industry, it is argued that Kronstadt is developing an unmanned complex with the possibility of group use and interaction with manned aircraft.

    The project called "Lightning" is an initiative development of the "Kronstadt" company. A draft version of the project has been prepared, and development work will begin in the near future. Within the framework of the draft design, approximate tactical and technical characteristics have been determined, which, however, can be changed and adjusted during the development work. The complex is offered for solving a wide range of tasks associated with the use of weapons or electronic equipment.

    On the official resources of "Kronstadt" there is no information about the "Lightning" project yet. RIA Novosti was also unable to receive comments about this development. Probably, such a project - if it exists - has not yet reached the stages at which it can be presented to the public.

    Unknown layout

    It is assumed that the new unknown model, shown to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, is directly related to the "Lightning" project and shows the current views on the design of such a UAV. This is confirmed by the fact that the appearance of the product as a whole coincides with the characteristics and features disclosed by the source in the industry.

    However, it could not have been the Molniya or even the UAV. In the report of Channel One, one can notice that the guidance system is mentioned on the information stand next to the model - and such a component is typical for cruise missiles, not for drones.

    One way or another, the presented layout looks like a cruise missile, and its appearance speaks of the use of stealth technologies. The aircraft is built according to a normal scheme, it has a wing that can be folded in flight and a V-shaped tail. The fuselage received a curved top surface and an almost flat bottom. The design of the bow indicates the use of a radio-transparent fairing. An air intake recessed into the fuselage is provided in the central part of the product. The nozzle is flat with a V-shaped cut.

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 1614691716_-ort
    Close-up layout. Nearby is a stand with interesting information. Frame from the reportage of the "First Channel"

    A promising UAV should receive advanced electronic means capable of providing autonomous or remotely controlled flight, interaction with other equipment and the fulfillment of the assigned task. At the same time, the list of on-board devices and their capabilities have not yet been specified.

    According to the source of RIA Novosti, the length of the Molniya vehicle will reach 1,5 m, and the wingspan will be 1,2 m. The weight of the product has not been disclosed, but the payload is indicated at the level of 5-7 kg. UAVs of this appearance can be transported by different carrier aircraft. In particular, it will be able to fit into the internal compartments of the Su-57 fighter.

    According to the same source, the Molniya's turbojet propulsion system will provide a flight at a speed of 700-800 km / h. The flight range is hundreds of kilometers. The start will be carried out from the carrier. Landing method unknown.

    Group application

    The Molniya project proposes to transport light drones on carrier aircraft of various types. A wide range of vehicles is considered in this capacity - from promising Su-57 fighters to converted military transport aircraft. It is also possible to use light UAVs together with the heavy S-70 "Okhotnik". Obviously, different carriers will carry a different number of light drones, and this will affect the organization of combat work.

    New drones are being developed for swarm use. Several vehicles must fly and perform the task together - independently or in interaction with a manned aircraft. Such functions are the main goal of the project, towards which all efforts will be directed.

    The swarm concept provides for a constant exchange of data between individual UAVs and the control aircraft. This allows you to solve any assigned tasks and respond flexibly to various factors. In the event of a change in the situation or the loss of a drone, tasks can be redistributed between active vehicles, incl. in automatic mode and without operator participation.

    It is assumed that the unmanned "swarm" of the "Lightning" complex will be able to conduct reconnaissance, electronic warfare, etc. The possibility of solving combat missions is also being considered - for this, drones will be able to carry out target designation or act as loitering ammunition. Small payload will most likely prevent them from becoming carriers weapons.

    Perspective direction

    Group use of UAVs and manned aircraft has obvious advantages and allows you to flexibly solve a wide range of tasks. As a result, projects of this kind are being worked out in a number of countries, and some of them have already been brought to flight tests of one kind or another. At the same time, such complexes have not yet been accepted for service.

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 1614691637_2
    View from a different angle, you can consider the design of the tail. Frame from the reportage of the "First Channel"

    As follows from the latest news, in our country, work has also begun on an unmanned aerial complex for group use, intended for use in the troops. The draft design of the Molniya complex is already ready, and now its creators will have to carry out a full-fledged design.

    It is not known how long the ROC stage will last, when the experienced Molniya UAVs will take to the air and how soon the group flights will begin. At the same time, there are reasons for both positive and negative forecasts. It should be noted that the Russian industry in general and the Kronstadt group in particular has solid experience in the creation of drones. It will contribute to the fastest solution of a number of engineering problems, which will have a positive effect on the overall timing of work on the "Lightning".

    However, it must be remembered that in a group application system, the leading role is given not to components and assemblies, but to special software. It should ensure high autonomy of the UAV and its ability to interact with other combat units. As practice shows, creating software with all the necessary functions is a very difficult task and requires a lot of effort.

    Given the complexity of such a project, it can be assumed that the development and testing of a combat-ready unmanned complex will take several years. The adoption of the "Lightning" in service should be expected in the middle of the decade. It will take several more years to build and supply the troops with a sufficient amount of equipment. Thus, in the second half of the twenties, a full-fledged combat-ready grouping of Su-57 aircraft and the Hunter and Molniya drones with the widest capabilities may appear as part of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

    It is obvious that the Molniya project and other hypothetical developments of this class are of great interest to the armed forces. Accordingly, the order for the development and start of the design of such a complex is now exclusively a matter of time. According to the latest news, development work will begin shortly and such estimates look realistic.

    https://en.topwar.ru/180494-proekt-bespilotnogo-kompleksa-gruppovogo-primenenija-molnija.html

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    Post  GarryB Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:19 am

    Nice looking genuinely indigenous design, unlike the Orion versions that simply look like catchup efforts to the US Predator / Reaper models. Those General Atomics products sure look very much refined aerodynamically and functionally, one has to admit.

    Need for murderbots in Russia has not been a very high priority, and I rather doubt they even want to catch up in that regard.

    Drones are useful, but not everyone needs every type.... it is a bit like the Soviets designing the MiG-25 and then the US copying with the F-15 and now F-22... most copy layouts and designs when they basically suit your needs too.
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    Post  Daniel_Admassu Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:37 am

    GarryB wrote:
    Nice looking genuinely indigenous design, unlike the Orion versions that simply look like catchup efforts to the US Predator / Reaper models. Those General Atomics products sure look very much refined aerodynamically and functionally, one has to admit.

    Need for murderbots in Russia has not been a very high priority, and I rather doubt they even want to catch up in that regard.

    Drones are useful, but not everyone needs every type.... it is a bit like the Soviets designing the MiG-25 and then the US copying with the F-15 and now F-22... most copy layouts and designs when they basically suit your needs too.

    Regardless of what the US uses its drones for, they are just another aerial combat platform. Them being unmanned is a convenient way of avoiding human loss with a compromise in loss of human-level on-site situational awareness. As things improve with regard to AI and machine autonomy that becomes less and less of an issue. So Russia is right to have its own drone programs, and yes, Russia is late to the game.

    But isn't this Monliya model too small to be turbojet powered? With the usual mission profile of small drones, the figures just don't add up.
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    Post  RTN Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:30 am

    LMFS wrote:It was NATO that first proposed such weapons to challenge increasingly efficient enemy AD, but paradoxically they are much more vulnerable to those drones than the Russians pwnd
    NATO is not vulnerable to such Russian drones. It's exactly for these scenarios that systems like the Oerlikon 35/1000 Revolver Gun was designed.

    The state of the art AHEAD projectile is programmed by a muzzle based electromagnetic inductor, which sets an electronic timer to activate and separate the projectile into 152 heavy tungsten metal spin-stabilized sub-projectiles (3.3 gram each), forming a lethal cone shaped metal cloud, placed ahead of the target in its flight path.

    Every single such drones would be shred to pieces.

    For infantry there are options like SMARTSHOOTER optical system, that is very effective in neutralizing swarm drone attacks.

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    Post  lyle6 Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:26 pm

    Lawl. What is this then?

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 Iran-drone-US-aircraft-carrier

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    Post  LMFS Sat Mar 06, 2021 3:49 am

    RTN wrote:NATO is not vulnerable to such Russian drones.

    Every single such drones would be shred to pieces.

    Rolling Eyes

    Please...

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    Post  GarryB Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:25 am

    Regardless of what the US uses its drones for, they are just another aerial combat platform.

    They perform a function. They are generally much cheaper than a manned aircraft... a good example is in filming for movies... if you wanted an aerial shot you hired a helicopter which probably cost about 10K per hour plus airborne camera crew... these days a drone could do the same job for a tiny fraction of that price... which actually makes aerial views vastly more affordable...

    Them being unmanned is a convenient way of avoiding human loss with a compromise in loss of human-level on-site situational awareness.

    Not just that it is cheaper and easier to use unmanned platforms... less fuel burned lower operating costs etc etc.

    For the price of hiring a helicopter for aerial shots for a couple of weeks filming you could probably buy an entire drone setup with the necessary cameras and equipment and be able to sit next to the drone operator and direct the camera yourself.

    As things improve with regard to AI and machine autonomy that becomes less and less of an issue.

    Most drones don't need AI... they fly on an autopilot programme to specific locations. The operator can change the waypoints or manually take over flight control if they want but most of the time they command it to fly specific waypoints and direct the camera and look at the information any sensors on board might be detecting.

    There is rarely a need to fly manually like a fighter plane.

    So Russia is right to have its own drone programs, and yes, Russia is late to the game.

    It is not late to the game... it does not need murder bots that internet experts complain they are "behind in". They don't have them because they don't need them.

    But isn't this Monliya model too small to be turbojet powered? With the usual mission profile of small drones, the figures just don't add up.

    Turbojets can be as small as your fist and burn fuel more efficiently than a similarly sized rocket motor.

    NATO is not vulnerable to such Russian drones. It's exactly for these scenarios that systems like the Oerlikon 35/1000 Revolver Gun was designed.

    Saudi Arabia has 35mm cannons... they didn't even see a cruise missile and drone attack on their facilities... HATO is VERY vulnerable to small slow low flying threats... most countries are.

    The state of the art AHEAD projectile is programmed by a muzzle based electromagnetic inductor, which sets an electronic timer to activate and separate the projectile into 152 heavy tungsten metal spin-stabilized sub-projectiles (3.3 gram each), forming a lethal cone shaped metal cloud, placed ahead of the target in its flight path.

    Problem is that once it leaves the muzzle and the fuse is set it is fixed... the target now has the time from leaving the muzzle to impact to change speed or flight direction or altitude and all those subprojectiles will miss.

    And where is this gun located... do they have enough to mount them around the border of all HATO countries?

    Every single such drones would be shred to pieces.

    How does it detect targets?

    Modern light weight drones can be all plastic and with electric motors it might have no radar cross section and no IR signature at all...

    For infantry there are options like SMARTSHOOTER optical system, that is very effective in neutralizing swarm drone attacks.

    The funny thing is that the west says the solution to the formidable Russian air defence system is swarm drone attacks... but if the much weaker HATO defences can stop drone attacks then HATO is screwed because Russia is vastly better equipped to stop such an attack and in the near future launch such an attack on HATO.

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    Post  RTN Sat Mar 06, 2021 2:12 pm

    GarryB wrote:Problem is that once it leaves the muzzle and the fuse is set it is fixed... the target now has the time from leaving the muzzle to impact to change speed or flight direction or altitude and all those subprojectiles will miss.
    Logic free data. A few dozen AHEAD projectiles will miss the target simply because the target can manoeuvre? But then logic free data is faith - sounds about right.
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    Post  medo Sat Mar 06, 2021 2:58 pm

    RTN wrote:NATO is not vulnerable to such Russian drones. It's exactly for these scenarios that systems like the Oerlikon 35/1000 Revolver Gun was designed.

    The state of the art AHEAD projectile is programmed by a muzzle based electromagnetic inductor, which sets an electronic timer to activate and separate the projectile into 152 heavy tungsten metal spin-stabilized sub-projectiles (3.3 gram each), forming a lethal cone shaped metal cloud, placed ahead of the target in its flight path.

    Every single such drones would be shred to pieces.

    For infantry there are options like SMARTSHOOTER optical system, that is very effective in neutralizing swarm drone attacks.

    NATO doesn't have many of them and one battery could ingage only one target at the same time. They will not do better than Osa in Artzakh, when facing more drones at the same time. On the other hand we could see its effectivenes against cruise missiles and drones in time of Houti strike on Abqaiq oil facilities in KSA, where all Oerlikon 35 Skyguard and Crotale batteries didn't notice any attack, same as Patriot.

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 29849113

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    Post  Daniel_Admassu Sat Mar 06, 2021 3:36 pm

    GarryB wrote:

    Most drones don't need AI... they fly on an autopilot programme to specific locations. The operator can change the waypoints or manually take over flight control if they want but most of the time they command it to fly specific waypoints and direct the camera and look at the information any sensors on board might be detecting.


    Most drones currently don't have AI because the technology hasn't arrived yet. Why would you think that when the time comes that we have a practical AI that can drive a military drone, Russia or anyone else won't need it?

    You are right that most current drones either follow a set waypoint or are piloted remotely. But imagine a drone that can be sent into enemy airspace, identify military assets (from a database), assign priorities, takes evasive maneuvers, fire weapons and if possible plot a route to its home base. That would relieve at least some human crew of duty. If such technology was available (and I believe it is not far off in the future) everyone will jump in. In general that is where the future of air combat is headed. So having the program and platform ready will be an advantage.
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    Post  GarryB Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:06 am

    Logic free data. A few dozen AHEAD projectiles will miss the target simply because the target can manoeuvre? But then logic free data is faith - sounds about right.

    You do understand that AHEAD rounds are not unique?

    Even during WWII large calibre guns used proximity fuses to detonate shells in the air near targets... but against manouvering targets it took thousands and thousands of shells to be fired for each kill.

    You do understand the problem don't you... drones are small and light and can easily constantly change direction and speed... an AHEAD equipped battery starts firing and hits the first target because it was flying straight and level... the other drones in the flight will now be alerted that there is a threat and all of them can start zig zagging and climbing and speeding up and slowing down while they look for muzzle flashes to locate the gun positions. You might knock down a few more drones but they are going to locate you and based on a few simple things like an understanding of what the guns are and where they are located then they can plan their attack.

    It is actually more likely that a professional force like a Russian military attack will have detected radar emissions from the battery and looked at high resolution up to date satellite imagery and determined the actual physical location of the battery and launched an Iskander with a cluster munition warhead with about 600 HE frag bomblets to wipe out the battery, but obviously an alternative to that would be to send suicide drones at high altitude to the location of the gun battery and then dive vertically on the guns and the support vans and radars and also the ammo dump... as they dive down vertically they can roll in a spiral flight path to make shooting them down difficult... I rather suspect the radar cannot scan vertically either...

    But the obvious question is... do they have enough AHEAD equipped gun batteries to cover every inch of their borders... ie every 1-2km apart, or do they have one battery for every target they want to defend?

    I rather suspect not.

    Most drones currently don't have AI because the technology hasn't arrived yet.

    That is not true at all... they could have been AI based control systems for the last 10 years or more, but they have no reason to because it does not add anything useful. How do you train an AI to recognise that that vehicle on the ground is a new vehicle it has never seen before and that it should take a good look at it... a human operator will recognise something different or strange, and might recognise features like an MTLB vehicle with an EO turret surrounded by 12 ready to launch tubes is probably not a mine laying vehicle and might actually be a rather capable new air defence system called Pine (SOSNA) that can shoot down drones like the one you are currently using so rapid descent and scramble for cover is in order...

    An AI with that sort of reaction might dive for cover when someone with an SUV and a trailer with a speed boat on the back comes up the road...

    Why would you think that when the time comes that we have a practical AI that can drive a military drone, Russia or anyone else won't need it?

    What do you expect AI to achieve that a human operator cannot provide for more surety?

    I played with AI systems at university in the late 1990s and they are interesting, but they are black box systems... you give the system the results you want with examples for it to train on and let it work out its own way of determining how to work it out for itself. As I said it is a black box system so you can't look at what it does or how it does it... it either works or it does not.

    As an example in the 1980s the West Germans were trying to create an optical system or programme that could automatically detect enemy armour... whether covered in camo or not. They built the system and fed it thousands of photos of armoured vehicles sometimes in the open, sometimes camouflaged and a lot of photos with no vehicle at all... they trained it on an enormous number of photos and the results were 97% effective... 97% of the time the software could detect an armoured vehicle was present in a still video image (ie photo).

    The took it to an exercise and it was aweful... it saw armoured vehicles everywhere where there were none.

    You can't just crack open the software and read the code and look at why it thought there was an armoured vehicle there when there wasn't, but eventually they worked out the problem.

    It seems that all the images with armoured vehicles in them in the photos used to train the programme were taken on a sunny day and all the photos taken without armoured vehicles in the shot were taken on a cloudy day and the exercise was on a sunny day.

    AI training is essentially feeding information to a programme that can look at that information and telling it a result for each piece of information. If you put in enough information (there is a mathematical threshold... you can under train and you can over train... once it is right then you stop training and set its rules so they wont change and then you test it in real life. Some AI have some base rules but can learn new rules over time with "experience".

    It is not a form of intelligence, it is basically a learned behaviour within the parameters set by the person who created the AI.

    And the sacred do no harm to others type rules are likely not part of the design because these are murder bots so they have to be able to kill.

    But imagine a drone that can be sent into enemy airspace, identify military assets (from a database), assign priorities, takes evasive maneuvers, fire weapons and if possible plot a route to its home base.

    Why do you think a computer programme would be better at that than a human? What if the GPS signal is jammed and the AI drone thinks it is over enemy territory and its IFF system is jammed so it thinks everything is hostile...

    That would relieve at least some human crew of duty.

    A potential suicide bomber of your own creation...

    If such technology was available (and I believe it is not far off in the future) everyone will jump in. In general that is where the future of air combat is headed. So having the program and platform ready will be an advantage.

    It would be perfectly possible now, but for a drone to operate on its own it needs awareness of its surroundings... ie EW equipment that will tell it it is being scanned or lased or fired at so it knows to evade or jam or fire back... it also needs to be able to tell what is enemy and what is friendly and what is civilian or non combatant.... imagine it shooting down a civilian airliner or your own helicopters returning from enemy territory after a mission...

    The airspace over a conflict is going to be horribly congested with all these friendly drones as well as enemy drones and manned aircraft as well.
    RTN
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    Post  RTN Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:39 am

    GarryB wrote:

    You do understand that AHEAD rounds are not unique?

    Even during WWII large calibre guns used proximity fuses to detonate shells in the air near targets... but against manouvering targets it took thousands and thousands of shells to be fired for each kill.
    You do understand that World War-II AHEAD rounds did not have a programmable, electronic, time fuze that determines the exact location where the AHEAD round will ejects a lethal shower of 152 spin-stabilized sub-projectiles?

    GarryB wrote:You do understand the problem don't you... drones are small and light and can easily constantly change direction and speed... an AHEAD equipped battery starts firing and hits the first target because it was flying straight and level... the other drones in the flight will now be alerted that there is a threat and all of them can start zig zagging and climbing and speeding up and slowing down while they look for muzzle flashes to locate the gun positions.
    Small drones that are used in swarm attacks barely have such advanced capabilities that allows them to sense incoming missiles, rounds and immediately adopt evasive maneuvers. These drones too are controlled by humans. They don't have a mind of their own.
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    Post  Daniel_Admassu Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:44 am

    GarryB wrote:

    Most drones currently don't have AI because the technology hasn't arrived yet.

    That is not true at all... they could have been AI based control systems for the last 10 years or more, but they have no reason to because it does not add anything useful. How do you train an AI to recognise that that vehicle on the ground is a new vehicle it has never seen before and that it should take a good look at it... a human  operator will recognise something different or strange, and might recognise features like an MTLB vehicle with an EO turret surrounded by 12 ready to launch tubes is probably not a mine laying vehicle and might actually be a rather capable new air defence system called Pine (SOSNA) that can shoot down drones like the one you are currently using so rapid descent and scramble for cover is in order...

    An AI with that sort of reaction might dive for cover when someone with an SUV and a trailer with a speed boat on the back comes up the road...

    Why would you think that when the time comes that we have a practical AI that can drive a military drone, Russia or anyone else won't need it?

    What do you expect AI to achieve that a human operator cannot provide for more surety?

    I played with AI systems at university in the late 1990s and they are interesting, but they are black box systems... you give the system the results you want with examples for it to train on and let it work out its own way of determining how to work it out for itself. As I said it is a black box system so you can't look at what it does or how it does it... it either works or it does not.

    As an example in the 1980s the West Germans were trying to create an optical system or programme that could automatically detect enemy armour... whether covered in camo or not. They built the system and fed it thousands of photos of armoured vehicles sometimes in the open, sometimes camouflaged and a lot of photos with no vehicle at all... they trained it on an enormous number of photos and the results were 97% effective... 97% of the time the software could detect an armoured vehicle was present in a still video image (ie photo).

    The took it to an exercise and it was aweful... it saw armoured vehicles everywhere where there were none.

    You can't just crack open the software and read the code and look at why it thought there was an armoured vehicle there when there wasn't, but eventually they worked out the problem.

    It seems that all the images with armoured vehicles in them in the photos used to train the programme were taken on a sunny day and all the photos taken without armoured vehicles in the shot were taken on a cloudy day and the exercise was on a sunny day.

    AI training is essentially feeding information to a programme that can look at that information and telling it a result for each piece of information. If you put in enough information (there is a mathematical threshold... you can under train and you can over train... once it is right then you stop training and set its rules so they wont change and then you test it in real life. Some AI have some base rules but can learn new rules over time with "experience".

    It is not a form of intelligence, it is basically a learned behaviour within the parameters set by the person who created the AI.

    And the sacred do no harm to others type rules are likely not part of the design because these are murder bots so they have to be able to kill.

    But imagine a drone that can be sent into enemy airspace, identify military assets (from a database), assign priorities, takes evasive maneuvers, fire weapons and if possible plot a route to its home base.

    Why do you think a computer programme would be better at that than a human?  What if the GPS signal is jammed and the AI drone thinks it is over enemy territory and its IFF system is jammed so it thinks everything is hostile...

    That would relieve at least some human crew of duty.

    A potential suicide bomber of your own creation...

    If such technology was available (and I believe it is not far off in the future) everyone will jump in. In general that is where the future of air combat is headed. So having the program and platform ready will be an advantage.

    It would be perfectly possible now, but for a drone to operate on its own it needs awareness of its surroundings... ie EW equipment that will tell it it is being scanned or lased or fired at so it knows to evade or jam or fire back... it also needs to be able to tell what is enemy and what is friendly and what is civilian or non combatant.... imagine it shooting down a civilian airliner or your own helicopters returning from enemy territory after a mission...

    The airspace over a conflict is going to be horribly congested with all these friendly drones as well as enemy drones and manned aircraft as well.

    There seems to be an awful lot of conflict in your reply. You say AI tech is available now in one sentence and say it is useless for real life missions in another. If it is not ready, then it is just not.

    Coincidentally I researched AI for my graduate thesis, but more recently than you, in 2008, I should say. The core of the thesis was a neural network implementation of a learning model developed by a company called Numenta. They named it a  Hierarchical Temporal Memory and its innovative feature was it learned object recognition from a temporal progression of the sensory data. That is, you present it with various frames of your data, say geometric figures, and it computes invariance for itself. Thus once it is trained on an object, it can deal with its various teansformations, including rotation, elongation and flipping. At some later time they commercialized the model for financial predictions in a toolkit (I think they called it Vitamin-D or something). My work was to implement the model with a Multi-layered Perceptron Neural Network system, written in C#. The point was instead of the comlex bayesian functions and huge number of variables they used, a Neural Network can provide a neat closed system that better resembled the biological counterpart. I got good results from it but a complete AI system needs various components such as an environment, a motive structure, constrained resources and so on for an autonomous operation.

    What I want to say is that true AI, the unsupervised learning type in particular, is nowhere near arrival to date. What we virtually have is application level 'AI', basically a trained logic system that I am not entirely sure can be  dignified with the term Intelligence. It is what is being used in self driving cars, image recognition and what not. Some of it has gotten pretty good at what it does lately. But from what most media says, you might think robots were on the verge of enslaving us. The truly autonomous AI (what they call 'hard' AI) is a long way off.

    While researchers keep working on a human-level Intelligence structure, application level AI is cropping up into military use. It might be not far when they could get to be adequate to do the things I said they might. It would do an aerospace leading nation like Russia well to invest in it sooner than later.
    Scorpius
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    Post  Scorpius Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:03 am

    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 8775439_original
    AR-10 "Argumentum" UAV project based on the SR-10 aircraft.
    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 8775765_original
    https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4266580.html

    thegopnik likes this post

    thegopnik
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    Post  thegopnik Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:13 am

    Scorpius wrote:UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 8775439_original
    AR-10 "Argumentum" UAV project based on the SR-10 aircraft.
    UAVs in Russian Armed Forces: News #2 - Page 13 8775765_original
    https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4266580.html

    Foaming from the mouth, thanks for great news.

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