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    Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #2

    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon on Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:24 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:...
    Belarus doesn't actually have much money. Instead they purchase from borrowed money from Russia and refine it cheap and sell it to Europe at a profit. But they still have to pay back the loans.

    Just let them buy from USA

    Once they burn through the money offer them oil again this time with more strings attached

    It ain't particle physics


    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:35 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:If anyone read the article, it is obviously a method for Belarus to try and blackmail Russia.

    It says that the foreign minister of Belarus hopes to have more leverage in talks with Russia now that prices are low and that US is willing to sell oil to Belarus

    Belarus doesn't actually have much money. Instead they purchase from borrowed money from Russia and refine it cheap and sell it to Europe at a profit. But they still have to pay back the loans.
    So they are planning to buy gas and or oil from the US using loans from Russia? Rolling Eyes
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:40 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:If anyone read the article, it is obviously a method for Belarus to try and blackmail Russia.

    It says that the foreign minister of Belarus hopes to have more leverage in talks with Russia now that prices are low and that US is willing to sell oil to Belarus

    Belarus doesn't actually have much money. Instead they purchase from borrowed money from Russia and refine it cheap and sell it to Europe at a profit. But they still have to pay back the loans.

    The lunatics have taken over the asylum in Belorus. Another failed state in the making and one Russia should cut loose, ASAP.

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:09 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:...
    Belarus doesn't actually have much money. Instead they purchase from borrowed money from Russia and refine it cheap and sell it to Europe at a profit. But they still have to pay back the loans.

    Just let them buy from USA

    Once they burn through the money offer them oil again this time with more strings attached

    It ain't particle physics



    Yeah, I say so.

    Give Belarus loans and so they end up blowing it quick on US oil, they will go broke fast. And then keep giving them loans. Wait till it becomes far too out of control the debt and then start asking for your money back. And then if they can't make sure any further agreements with oil trade stipulates they buy Russian only set at what Russia demands. If they don't then take them to court.
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:46 am

    miketheterrible wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:...
    Belarus doesn't actually have much money. Instead they purchase from borrowed money from Russia and refine it cheap and sell it to Europe at a profit. But they still have to pay back the loans.

    Just let them buy from USA

    Once they burn through the money offer them oil again this time with more strings attached

    It ain't particle physics



    Yeah, I say so.

    Give Belarus loans and so they end up blowing it quick on US oil, they will go broke fast. And then keep giving them loans. Wait till it becomes far too out of control the debt and then start asking for your money back. And then if they can't make sure any further agreements with oil trade stipulates they buy Russian only set at what Russia demands. If they don't then take them to court.

    The problem is that if the court are western courts like the one that decided about the 3 billions dollar loan that Ukraine should have paid back to Russia there are low chance that they will be fair and nit a kangaroo court...

    It would be easier to conquer sweden militarily than to have them be honest and objective.... unfortunately..

    In this case the solution is not easy, but doing like it was done with the Ukraine in 2013 and provide them with cheap loans for huge amounts of money is not the solution...

    The money would better be spent in some less developed parts of Russia, or to develop new industries/ technologies...
    Belorussia is not (yet?) a part of Russia.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:43 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:...
    Belarus doesn't actually have much money. Instead they purchase from borrowed money from Russia and refine it cheap and sell it to Europe at a profit. But they still have to pay back the loans.

    Just let them buy from USA

    Once they burn through the money offer them oil again this time with more strings attached

    It ain't particle physics



    Yeah, I say so.

    Give Belarus loans and so they end up blowing it quick on US oil, they will go broke fast. And then keep giving them loans. Wait till it becomes far too out of control the debt and then start asking for your money back. And then if they can't make sure any further agreements with oil trade stipulates they buy Russian only set at what Russia demands. If they don't then take them to court.

    Lukasranko is a Soviet era dinosaur that expects to default on any Russian loans without consequence. Your idea violates
    a sacred principle:

    If you owe them a little, then it is your problem. I you owe them a lot, it is their problem.

    So no loans for Belorus. Period. That way the pain from the yanqui assrape will be more intense and immediate.

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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:37 pm

    There is that for sure.

    Make sure they end up pay Russia back for all loans now
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:17 pm


    Pipe layer Akademik Cherskiy is currently off the coast of Madagascar en route to Port of Maputo, Mozambique

    https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/AKADEMIK-CHERSKIY-IMO-8770261-MMSI-273399760

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:52 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Pipe layer Akademik Cherskiy is currently off the coast of Madagascar en route to Port of Maputo, Mozambique

    https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/AKADEMIK-CHERSKIY-IMO-8770261-MMSI-273399760


    Very interesting.

    They are either in no hurry to get it to the Baltic, as it looks like it is going round the Cape of Good Hope, or it won't fit or the risk is too high for the Suez Canal.
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:01 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    Pipe layer Akademik Cherskiy is currently off the coast of Madagascar en route to Port of Maputo, Mozambique

    https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/AKADEMIK-CHERSKIY-IMO-8770261-MMSI-273399760


    Very interesting.

    They are either in no hurry to get it to the Baltic, as it looks like it is going round the Cape of Good Hope, or it won't fit or the risk is too high for the Suez Canal.
    well you know, there is always the risk of pirates, and i can imagine that some spec ops from some country could try and copy the operations of Somali pirates...
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:23 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    Pipe layer Akademik Cherskiy is currently off the coast of Madagascar en route to Port of Maputo, Mozambique
    https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/AKADEMIK-CHERSKIY-IMO-8770261-MMSI-273399760
    Very interesting.
    They are either in no hurry to get it to the Baltic, as it looks like it is going round the Cape of Good Hope, or it won't fit or the risk is too high for the Suez Canal.

    well you know, there is always the risk of pirates, and i can imagine that some spec ops from some country could try and copy the operations of Somali pirates...

    Doubtful about spec-ops scenario considering that the ship is apparently being escorted by frigate Yaroslav Mudrii who's marine complement would definitely be shacking up on the Akademik Cherskiy

    I don't think it's too big for Suez (or is it?) so they are definitely not in a hurry

    Or maybe they had to resupply in Mozambique, those pipe layers aren't exactly long voyage ships and are probably dependent on resupply vessels in usual operation

    But they should definitely be moving towards Baltic, I don't see any other reason for this ship to be even out of port now, Lord knows there aren't any pipelines being built anywhere near Africa currently


    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:01 am

    Another escort home?

    WarshipCam
    @WarshipCam
    ·
    6h
    Russian Navy Project 1164 Slava-class cruiser arriving today in Cape Town,
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:09 am

    JohninMK wrote:Another escort home?

    WarshipCam
    @WarshipCam
    ·
    6h
    Russian Navy Project 1164 Slava-class cruiser arriving today in Cape Town,

    Either that or they forgot something there last time Cool

    This will be most interesting trip that any pipe layer took in recent history

    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:16 am

    Good. Keep speaking the language that yanqui meat-heads understand.

    If these Manifest Destiny f*cks try to pull something, Russia needs to disable one or both of their primary KH-11 satellites. Scrapping $10 billion
    in hardware will be just compensation.

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    Post  PhSt on Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:36 am

    NATO media is quick to launch a propaganda blitz directed at Russia, greatly exaggerating  the sharp fall of the ruble in connection to the massive drop in oil prices.



    Russia Sees Oil & Gas Income Fall By Almost $40 Billion

    Russia’s revenues from oil and gas will be US$39.5 billion (3 trillion rubles) lower than planned, due to the tumbling oil prices, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday, adding that Russia’s budget will be in deficit this year.

    The coronavirus pandemic and the lower economic activity, coupled with oil prices half the level before Russia and Saudi Arabia broke up the OPEC+ production cut deal two weeks ago, will weigh on Russia’s budget this year, which will tip into deficit.

    Russia’s economy is not going as well as one would have hoped, the finance minister admitted today, saying that the oil price factor alone is set to reduce the country’s budget income by nearly US$39.5 billion compared to earlier estimates.

    In case of budget deficit, Russia will use reserves from the National Wealth Fund (NWF), Siluanov said on Wednesday.

    According to analysts at Gazprombank, cited by Reuters, the fund has enough reserves to compensate for lower budget revenues due to low oil prices for more than five years.

    Last week, a day after oil prices collapsed in the worst drop in nearly three decades—courtesy of the renewed Saudi-Russia rivalry on the oil market – Russia’s Finance Ministry said that Moscow had enough resources to cover budget shortfalls amid oil prices at $25-30 a barrel for six to ten years.

    The price of the Russian export grade Urals dropped far below $42.40 a barrel as oil prices tumbled by 30 percent after Saudi Arabia launched an all-out price war with Russia following the collapse of the OPEC+ group.

    The $42.40 Urals price is the price at which Russia’s budget is balanced, the Russian Finance Ministry said last week, noting that the country’s NWF had as of March 1 liquid assets worth US$150.1 billion, or 9.2 percent of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP).

    Lower oil prices are likely to persist for some time, considering the huge demand destruction in the coronavirus outbreak and the coming flood of extra supply on the already oversupplied market as both Russia and Saudi Arabia pledge to boost supply in the new feud between the former allies.

    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:40 am

    PhSt wrote:NATO media is quick to launch a propaganda blitz directed at Russia, greatly exaggerating  the sharp fall of the ruble in connection to the massive drop in oil prices.



    Russia Sees Oil & Gas Income Fall By Almost $40 Billion

    Russia’s revenues from oil and gas will be US$39.5 billion (3 trillion rubles) lower than planned, due to the tumbling oil prices, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday, adding that Russia’s budget will be in deficit this year.

    The coronavirus pandemic and the lower economic activity, coupled with oil prices half the level before Russia and Saudi Arabia broke up the OPEC+ production cut deal two weeks ago, will weigh on Russia’s budget this year, which will tip into deficit.

    Russia’s economy is not going as well as one would have hoped, the finance minister admitted today, saying that the oil price factor alone is set to reduce the country’s budget income by nearly US$39.5 billion compared to earlier estimates.

    In case of budget deficit, Russia will use reserves from the National Wealth Fund (NWF), Siluanov said on Wednesday.

    According to analysts at Gazprombank, cited by Reuters, the fund has enough reserves to compensate for lower budget revenues due to low oil prices for more than five years.

    Last week, a day after oil prices collapsed in the worst drop in nearly three decades—courtesy of the renewed Saudi-Russia rivalry on the oil market – Russia’s Finance Ministry said that Moscow had enough resources to cover budget shortfalls amid oil prices at $25-30 a barrel for six to ten years.  

    The price of the Russian export grade Urals dropped far below $42.40 a barrel as oil prices tumbled by 30 percent after Saudi Arabia launched an all-out price war with Russia following the collapse of the OPEC+ group.

    The $42.40 Urals price is the price at which Russia’s budget is balanced, the Russian Finance Ministry said last week, noting that the country’s NWF had as of March 1 liquid assets worth US$150.1 billion, or 9.2 percent of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP).

    Lower oil prices are likely to persist for some time, considering the huge demand destruction in the coronavirus outbreak and the coming flood of extra supply on the already oversupplied market as both Russia and Saudi Arabia pledge to boost supply in the new feud between the former allies.


    These retards don't understand that ruble forex drops offset oil price drops. Of course, the more ignorant these chauvinists are the better. Like
    Obummer and his "we'll put Russian on its knees with sanctions" delusions.

    BTW, don't take the pronouncements about how many years Russia can "last" on $25 oil seriously. There is no intrinsic dependence of the Russian
    GDP on oil and gas exports. So the Russian GDP will restructure itself as the under 7% of the GDP that depends on oil and gas extraction shrinks.

    1) Loss of revenues from oil and gas exports are a stimulus for Russia to focus on other economic activity. Unlike Saudi Arabia, Russia consumes
    around 50% of the oil and gas it produces:

    https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/russia/crude-oil-exports

    So the industry will not collapse even if export revenues drop by $40 billion and higher. Anyone who thinks that Russia cannot adjust 3.5% of
    its GDP in the next 10 years is grossly ignorant or does not care.

    2) Reduction in government revenue from oil and gas will force it to crack down on tax cheats. It is time to slap these monkey down since
    2003 is long over.

    3) Cheaper oil and gas prices stimulate the Russian economy while higher prices anti-stimulate it. Russia is not Saudi Arabia or Venezuela.
    NATzO morons don't understand this.

    4) Dealing with large swings in oil prices forces the Russian government and the economy in general not to use this cash flow like crack.


    Oil and gas are not the main problem for Russia from the corona virus pandemic. It is the global economic decline. This decline affects the
    USA and the rest of NATzO as well.

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    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:42 am

    PhSt wrote:...Russia Sees Oil & Gas Income Fall By Almost $40 Billion...

    This would be mother of all problems... if Russian budget was 80% dependent on oil income

    Good thing it ain't then but I do wonder if there's a country on this God's green earth whose budget was 80% dependent on oil... but for the life of me I can't think of a single one Razz



    PhSt wrote:
    ...According to analysts at Gazprombank, cited by Reuters, the fund has enough reserves to compensate for lower budget revenues due to low oil prices for more than five years

    Last week, a day after oil prices collapsed in the worst drop in nearly three decades—courtesy of the renewed Saudi-Russia rivalry on the oil market – Russia’s Finance Ministry said that Moscow had enough resources to cover budget shortfalls amid oil prices at $25-30 a barrel for six to ten years....

    Just to clarify one teeny tiny thing here: Russian rainy day fund which would allow them to ride out low oil prices for roughly 5-10 years (without budget rebalance or any changes in government plans) is 150 billion dollars

    That doesn't account for rest of Russia's financial and gold reserves which are another 350 billion bucks

    Meanwhile certain other country is running 80 billion bucks deficit ANNUALLY with sum total financial reserves of less than 500 billion bucks which means that after 5 years they will be dead broke, as in not just spending one specific fund but the whole thing with no option or replenishing it ever


    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:53 am

    https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/03/11/saudi-arabia-can-ill-afford-oil-price-war-it-began

    There will not be any repeat of the middle 1980s oil price war of the Saudis on the USSR. This time around it will be the banana
    republic economy of Saudi Arabia that will implode.

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    Post  Big_Gazza on Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:13 am

    The Saudis truly are a genetically stupid and useless people.  Nothing but in-bred goat-raping Bedouins...

    Cold beer?  Check.
    Popcorn? Check.
    Gleeful sense of anticipation at watching these Wahabbi scumbags and Uncle Scam fall on their faces and collapse in the dust?  Double fuckin' check.  Twisted Evil
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    Post  JohninMK on Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:26 am

    Big_Gazza wrote:The Saudis truly are a genetically stupid and useless people.  Nothing but in-bred goat-raping Bedouins...

    Cold beer?  Check.
    Popcorn? Check.
    Gleeful sense of anticipation at watching these Wahabbi scumbags and Uncle Scam fall on their faces and collapse in the dust?  Double fuckin' check.  Twisted Evil

    Agreed but they could be following orders.

    Bit like Iraq being told 'if you want to see any of the billions of your $/gold/investments we have in NY again do what you are told'
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    Post  Big_Gazza on Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:57 am

    The Saudis may be stupid, but the US won't risk dynamiting the foundational support of the petrodollar scam (ie Saudi oil sold exclusively in USD) by forcing the House of Saud to sacrifice its own long term interests.
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    Post  kvs on Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:54 pm

    Big_Gazza wrote:The Saudis truly are a genetically stupid and useless people.  Nothing but in-bred goat-raping Bedouins...

    Cold beer?  Check.
    Popcorn? Check.
    Gleeful sense of anticipation at watching these Wahabbi scumbags and Uncle Scam fall on their faces and collapse in the dust?  Double fuckin' check.  Twisted Evil

    They also chose a bad time to be waving their dicks around. Saudi production is near peak. Once the Ghawar goes it will be catastrophic decline.
    This is the physics of such reservoirs.
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    Post  Hole on Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:44 pm

    And the Aramco IPO was a desaster.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:39 pm

    Hole wrote:And the Aramco IPO was a desaster.

    The Houthi drone attack saw the Aramco IPO lose $1 trillion in value, and this week they lost another 20% of it's value, and Aramco is valued a $1 trillion so 20% of that is $200 billion. Incredibly enough Aramco was supposed to have a value of $2 trillion, but it lost 60% of it's IPO valuation during that last 4 months, so it should be valued at $800 billion now.
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    Post  Austin on Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:42 am

    Sechin sees no problems for Rosneft due to falling oil prices

    https://rns.online/energy/Sechin-ne-vidit-problem-dlya-Rosnefti-iz-za-padeniya-tsen-na-neft-2020-03-20/

    The current situation on the oil market is not a big problem for the Russian oil industry and, in particular, for Rosneft, said the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin.

    “For the Russian oil industry, it seems to me that there are no big problems in general. We have one of the best resource bases in the world as a whole, for all companies. Rosneft, even in conditions of, say, abandonment of new exploration projects, can produce about 22 years without reducing production, ”Sechin said on the Russia 24 television channel.

    According to him, Rosneft’s operating costs are comparable to those of Saudi Aramco.

    “Operating costs are comparable to those of Saudi Aramco. We have $ 3.1 per barrel of oil produced. They have about $ 2.5-2.8 there, ”the head of Rosneft emphasized.

    “Therefore, here too we can work calmly, efficiently, while we do not dump, unlike them. Therefore, our effectiveness may even be higher, ”he concluded.


    On March 6, 2020, Vienna hosted a meeting of OPEC ministers and non-cartel states participating in the agreement to reduce oil production (OPEC + deal). OPEC + countries did not agree to extend the agreement after March 2020. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak explained that no OPEC + country will have obligations to reduce oil production from April 1, 2020. At the same time, Novak noted that Russian oil production from April 1 will depend on the plans of Russian oil companies.

    On March 18, for the first time in 17 years, the price of Brent crude oil fell below $ 25 per barrel, and WTI crude oil dropped below $ 21 per barrel.

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