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    Russian Economy General News: #11

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:35 am

    The huge irony is that there are factions in the EU that want good relations with Russia again.... not because of brotherhood or morality or basic human decency... but because they lost the 21 billion in trade described above.

    Irony I say because that loss is calculated based on sales of products from the EU to the Russian market at a time when there was no domestic opposition to that trade... there were no Russian alternatives so of course EU food sold well...

    But now there is local and imported competition... it might come as a bit of a shock if they get the barriers dropped only to find that not only has their market share gone but the dropping of trade barriers leads to the situation where they might get 5 billion in trade earnings, but Russian food producers can now access EU markets in return and they might sell 5 billion there too so the net result is more competition in their own markets and not the same Russian market they were expecting.

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    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Sat Dec 12, 2020 2:38 pm

    The government of the Russian Federation has set quotas for public procurement of goods of Russian origin

    Mikhail Mishustin, Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, signed two decrees defining the list of goods for which the minimum share of purchases of such Russian-made goods will be established and the procedure for achieving it by the customer.

    The quota mechanism is introduced both for state (municipal) customers working under No. 44-FZ "on the contract system for procurement of goods, works and services to meet state and municipal needs", and for legal entities with state participation that make purchases under No. 223-FZ "on procurement of goods, works and services by certain types of legal entities".

    "The quota mechanism will strengthen the effect on the domestic industry of the already existing system of bans and restrictions on the purchase of imported products. Quotas will help to encourage customers to lay down Russian equipment and equipment immediately at the pre-project stage, as well as plan and build a procurement policy based on the existing competencies of Russian manufacturers," said Denis Manturov, Minister of industry and trade of the Russian Federation.

    The quota size is differentiated taking into account the current competencies and capabilities of Russian producers, and it is also planned to gradually increase the quota. This will allow industrial companies to gradually increase their production capabilities, and customers to plan purchases for the medium and long-term periods.

    It is important that only products included in the Russian and Eurasian registers of industrial products, the register of Russian radio-electronic products, and the Catalog of goods, works, and services can be counted to achieve the minimum share of purchases.

    The quota mechanism will apply to electronic and telecommunications products, musical instruments, medical equipment and medical goods (a total of 107 items). The resolution also includes products from the rehabilitation industry. For example, the share of wheelchairs in public procurement from 2021 should be at least 50%.


    Law No. 223-FZ provides for a more expanded list of goods (251 items), in addition to the items provided for under Law
    No. 44-FZ. Quotas also apply to machinery, equipment and equipment(road construction equipment, mining equipment, machine tools, oil and gas equipment, and others).


    As the mechanism is tested, its implementation is analyzed, as well as based on information about the capabilities of the domestic industry, the mechanism's operation will gradually expand. the quota mechanism also applies to other industries. In addition, it is planned to tighten the responsibility of customers for non-compliance with the established quotas. The instruction to prepare the necessary changes has already been given by the President of the Russian Federation.

    A report form has been set for completing the minimum percentage of purchases. It provides, among other things, justification for the customer's inability to fulfill the minimum share of purchases. Reporting will be generated automatically in the unified public procurement information system. The Ministry of industry and trade of the Russian Federation has been designated as the authorized body to assess whether the customer has achieved the minimum percentage of purchases.

    https://dfnc.ru/c106-technika/pravitelstvo-rf-ustanovilo-kvoty-na-goszakupki-tovarov-rossijskogo-proishozhdeniya/

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    Post  Kiko Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:23 pm

    A record amount of gold was exported and sold from Russia in 2020, more than 220 tons. What is the reason for this?
    Throughout 2020, a pandemic is raging on our planet, which has given rise to the global economic crisis.

    During periods of global economic crises, countries and businesses always buy gold. This is an axiom.

    Moreover, it is necessary to actively buy gold in the 2020 crisis, with which only the Great Depression of the early 30s can be compared in severity. Since the world's major currencies, especially the dollar, can depreciate sharply. In the United States, a record $ 4 trillion was printed in 2020, which increased the US debt from $ 22 trillion. up to 26.5 trillion. dollars.

    This is exactly what the leading countries of the world are doing, especially Switzerland and Great Britain are buying up a lot of gold, which have multiplied purchases since the beginning of April.

    Russia in 2020 is doing exactly the opposite, selling gold in unprecedented, record quantities. Moreover, sales have increased sharply since the first days of April.

    And selling gold during crises, how to move from dollar to rubles during a crisis.

    Here are the numbers:

    For 9 months of 2020, Russia sold 220 tons of gold, of which 98% was exported to London, and for the entire 2018 a little more than 10 tons were exported and sold, in 2019 - 120 tons.

    220 tons is 10% of all reserves of monetary gold in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia, which at the beginning of 2020 amounted to 2.270.56 tons (5th place in gold reserves in the world).

    That is, Russia could easily increase its gold reserves by 200 tons, but did not do it.

    The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which for the past several years has been the largest buyer of gold in the world, for example, in 2018 it purchased 270 tons, has suspended purchases since April. And the head of the Russian government, Mikhail Mishustin, signed a decree on the issuance of general licenses for the export of gold and silver in the form of ingots.
    From April to September inclusive, Russia received 12.5 billion US dollars from the sale of 220.5 tons of gold. In the third quarter, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation joined the sales, selling for the first time since 2007 1.2 tons of gold and foreign exchange reserves. In the second quarter of 2020, gold revenues exceeded gas revenues for the first time in history.

    According to experts, the main ideological inspirer of record gold exports abroad in 2020 is Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who is assisted in this by the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.
    What is the reason for the change in the policy of the Central Bank of Russia?

    Due to the pandemic, there was a sharp drop in world prices for oil and gas, for the first time in history, prices for them went into negative territory for several days, plus the costs of combating the pandemic. As a result, the budget deficit amounted to more than 4 trillion rubles. And ahead is the 2nd wave of the pandemic and the intensification of the global economic crisis. In addition, the price of gold on the world market began to rise sharply, for the first time in history, exceeding the price of $ 2,000 per troy ounce (31.1 grams). They are now around $ 1,840. And at the beginning of 2020, the price of gold was less than $ 1,600.

    The sharp increase in gold sales in 2019, compared to previous years, to 120 tons from 10-15 tons, is also associated with the rise in gold prices on the world market and low oil and gas prices.

    More than 350 tons of gold was mined in Russia in 2019, in 2020 the record of the previous year will be exceeded, so the sale of 220 tons is not critical. If only it did not become a habit.

    The Central Bank of the Russian Federation believes that gold should account for approximately 20% of the gold reserves (currently 21%), since gold is a relatively illiquid investment that is sensitive to market prices. But on the other hand, physical gold bullion is stored on the territory of Russia, which is more reliable, and dollars and euros are placed mainly in Western banks and they may be affected by US and EU sanctions against Russia, they may be seized.

    Therefore, it is wiser to bring the amount of gold to 50% of the gold and foreign exchange reserves, and in 2020 it was necessary to use dollar reserves in connection with the possible devaluation of the American currency against the euro and other world currencies.

    PS. There is another version why the Central Bank of the Russian Federation suddenly refused to buy Russian gold. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as a branch of the US Federal Reserve, received an order from the owners of world money. Therefore, instead of buying gold, Russia began to actively sell the "yellow metal". As a result, although gold has risen in price on the world market, it is not as critical as it could. In particular, the well-known economist, MGIMO professor Valentin Katasonov asserts this.

    I believe both versions are correct.
    https://zen.yandex.ru/media/id/5c35852e62248c00aa8743f6/iz-rossii-v-2020-godu-vyvezeno-i-prodano-rekordnoe-kolichestvo-zolota-bolee-220-tonn-s-chem-eto-sviazano-5fc921b56bcad04cbc4390e2


    Last edited by Kiko on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:25 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Additional link.)
    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:57 pm

    Russia bought gold when it was cheap and sold it when it was ultra expensive, now with Biden Dollar will raise again and gold will be cheaper to buy. Nothing particularly wrong here I would say, just Russia knowing how the Western gold scam works and taking advantage of it...

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    Post  Scorpius Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:24 am


    MS-21 with Russian engines made its first flight:
    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/138100/

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    Post  par far Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:09 pm

    Backman
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    Post  Backman Wed Dec 16, 2020 3:33 am

    I haven't checked yet but I am pretty sure that the gold Russia is exporting has nothing to do with its reserve holdings.

    Russia has gold mines who mine gold and sell it on the world market. Those are gold exports.

    Russia's monetary authority selling gold reserves is an entirely different thing. It does not count as gold exports.

    I normally follow all of this very close but I haven't for awhile. Will report back.

    Oh and no. The Russian central bank is NOT an arm of the Federal reserve. That's ridiculous nonsense.

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    Post  Backman Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:40 am

    Kiko wrote:A record amount of gold was exported and sold from Russia in 2020, more than 220 tons. What is the reason for this?
    Throughout 2020, a pandemic is raging on our planet, which has given rise to the global economic crisis.


    Here are the numbers:

    For 9 months of 2020, Russia sold 220 tons of gold, of which 98% was exported to London, and for the entire 2018 a little more than 10 tons were exported and sold, in 2019 - 120 tons.

    220 tons is 10% of all reserves of monetary gold in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia, which at the beginning of 2020 amounted to 2.270.56 tons (5th place in gold reserves in the world).


    Do you have a source for this ?

    Russia's gold mine exports have nothing to do with the Central bank of Russia's gold reserves. There are international mining corporations in Russia who extract gold and sell it on the international market. These count as gold exports in Russia's balance of trade.

    Then there is the central bank who buys and sells gold.

    Central Banking.com had Russia's gold holdings at 2299 in October 2020. And the World Gold Council has Russia's gold at 2298.5 currently in December. I am not seeing a 200+ ton dive in Russia's gold holdings.

    Russian Economy General News: #11 - Page 35 Deaitf7-d4747d6d-489a-42d1-b405-4ea16baab4f9.png?token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWIiOiJ1cm46YXBwOiIsImlzcyI6InVybjphcHA6Iiwib2JqIjpbW3sicGF0aCI6IlwvZlwvNjczMmY2M2YtZDU0Zi00Nzg5LWI0ZWEtZGU0ZTIxMzMyZDk2XC9kZWFpdGY3LWQ0NzQ3ZDZkLTQ4OWEtNDJkMS1iNDA1LTRlYTE2YmFhYjRmOS5wbmcifV1dLCJhdWQiOlsidXJuOnNlcnZpY2U6ZmlsZS5kb3dubG9hZCJdfQ



    Russian Economy General News: #11 - Page 35 Deaisl1-7127a85e-adea-4f7b-b42f-5f41d68674d2.png?token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWIiOiJ1cm46YXBwOiIsImlzcyI6InVybjphcHA6Iiwib2JqIjpbW3sicGF0aCI6IlwvZlwvNjczMmY2M2YtZDU0Zi00Nzg5LWI0ZWEtZGU0ZTIxMzMyZDk2XC9kZWFpc2wxLTcxMjdhODVlLWFkZWEtNGY3Yi1iNDJmLTVmNDFkNjg2NzRkMi5wbmcifV1dLCJhdWQiOlsidXJuOnNlcnZpY2U6ZmlsZS5kb3dubG9hZCJdfQ
    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:25 pm

    Backman wrote:
    Kiko wrote:A record amount of gold was exported and sold from Russia in 2020, more than 220 tons. What is the reason for this?
    Throughout 2020, a pandemic is raging on our planet, which has given rise to the global economic crisis.


    Here are the numbers:

    For 9 months of 2020, Russia sold 220 tons of gold, of which 98% was exported to London, and for the entire 2018 a little more than 10 tons were exported and sold, in 2019 - 120 tons.

    220 tons is 10% of all reserves of monetary gold in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia, which at the beginning of 2020 amounted to 2.270.56 tons (5th place in gold reserves in the world).


    Do you have a source for this ?

    Russia's gold mine exports have nothing to do with the Central bank of Russia's gold reserves. There are international mining corporations in Russia who extract gold and sell it on the international market. These count as gold exports in Russia's balance of trade.

    Then there is the central bank who buys and sells gold.

    Central Banking.com had Russia's gold holdings at 2299 in October 2020. And the World Gold Council has Russia's gold at 2298.5 currently in December. I am not seeing a 200+ ton dive in Russia's gold holdings.

    Russian Economy General News: #11 - Page 35 Deaitf7-d4747d6d-489a-42d1-b405-4ea16baab4f9.png?token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWIiOiJ1cm46YXBwOiIsImlzcyI6InVybjphcHA6Iiwib2JqIjpbW3sicGF0aCI6IlwvZlwvNjczMmY2M2YtZDU0Zi00Nzg5LWI0ZWEtZGU0ZTIxMzMyZDk2XC9kZWFpdGY3LWQ0NzQ3ZDZkLTQ4OWEtNDJkMS1iNDA1LTRlYTE2YmFhYjRmOS5wbmcifV1dLCJhdWQiOlsidXJuOnNlcnZpY2U6ZmlsZS5kb3dubG9hZCJdfQ



    Russian Economy General News: #11 - Page 35 Deaisl1-7127a85e-adea-4f7b-b42f-5f41d68674d2.png?token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWIiOiJ1cm46YXBwOiIsImlzcyI6InVybjphcHA6Iiwib2JqIjpbW3sicGF0aCI6IlwvZlwvNjczMmY2M2YtZDU0Zi00Nzg5LWI0ZWEtZGU0ZTIxMzMyZDk2XC9kZWFpc2wxLTcxMjdhODVlLWFkZWEtNGY3Yi1iNDJmLTVmNDFkNjg2NzRkMi5wbmcifV1dLCJhdWQiOlsidXJuOnNlcnZpY2U6ZmlsZS5kb3dubG9hZCJdfQ

    https://zen.yandex.ru/media/id/5c35852e62248c00aa8743f6/iz-rossii-v-2020-godu-vyvezeno-i-prodano-rekordnoe-kolichestvo-zolota-bolee-220-tonn-s-chem-eto-sviazano-5fc921b56bcad04cbc4390e2
    Backman
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    Post  Backman Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:54 pm

    Kiko wrote:
    Backman wrote:
    Kiko wrote:A record reserves in the world).


    Do you have a source for this ?

    Russia's gold mine exports have nothing to do with the Central bank of Russia's gold reserves. There are international mining corporations in Russia who extract gold and sell it on the international market. These count as gold exports in Russia's balance of trade.

    Then there is the central bank who buys and sells gold.

    Central Banking.com had Russia's gold holdings at 2299 in October 2020. And the World Gold Council has Russia's gold at 2298.5 currently in December. I am not seeing a 200+ ton dive in Russia's gold holdings.

    [[/img]

    https://zen.yandex.ru/media/id/5c35852e62248c00aa8743f6/iz-rossii-v-2020-godu-vyvezeno-i-prodano-rekordnoe-kolichestvo-zolota-bolee-220-tonn-s-chem-eto-sviazano-5fc921b56bcad04cbc4390e2

    I read the whole thing. I am not sure that the author of the article understands what it is saying. Yes. Russia exported 220 tons of gold. And 220 tons is 10 or whatever percent of Russia's CB reserves. But the Russian CB did not dishoard 220 tons of gold. And the article doesn't explicitly state this either.

    Kinross Gold is a Canadian mining company. It's the 4th largest gold producer in the world ( I own some shares) 44% of its gold production comes from its Russian mines. And this is a big part of the 220 tons that Russia exported. Kinross's exports have nothing to do with the Russian central bank. The Russian CB could not have just bought up this production. The Russian CB had an inside deal with its Russian owned mines like Polyus gold. The CB ended that inside deal in April 2020. This has led to an increase in gold exports from Russia ie the 220 tons.

    The CB of Russia still did not dishoard 220 tons of gold.

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    Post  kvs Wed Dec 16, 2020 6:19 pm

    It is clear that there was zero unloading of gold from the primary Russian reserve. Russia has been unloading dollars
    and is not going to buy them again. It also has too much in terms of euro reserves so it will not exchange gold for
    euros.

    Journalists these days are a waste of space, air and water.

    But one thing that Russia should do is to nationalize its gold production and not pay itself any market price to
    amass gold. Just pay the cost of extracting it. Having foreign outfits mine it and send it abroad for Mickey
    Mouse resource licensing fees and taxes is unacceptable.



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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:28 pm

    "70 percent of budget revenues are not due to oil and gas" - Putin

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:41 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:"70 percent of budget revenues are not due to oil and gas" - Putin

    So the narrow "federal" budget fraction has slipped to 30% from 34% in under two years. The consolidated budget fraction must
    be around 15%.

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:26 pm

    kvs wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:"70 percent of budget revenues are not due to oil and gas" - Putin

    So the narrow "federal" budget fraction has slipped to 30% from 34% in under two years.   The consolidated budget fraction must
    be around 15%.


    At least you've been validated for what you had been saying for several years now.

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    Post  kvs Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:31 pm

    The gas station posing as a country "narrative" is for morons. Russia is still developing economically so this diversification
    will reduce the fraction of oil and gas in the GDP.

    And there is nothing wrong with producing and exporting oil and gas. Russia has a comparative advantage in this sector.
    All the critics are full of shit.

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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:36 pm

    Well, yeah. We all knew thanks to initially the Awara group on how little oil and gas rents are for Russia's overall economy. And yeah, there is no reason to be saying it's bad to sell it. The oil and gas sector finances a ton of other high tech industries and high paying jobs. Oil processing isn't something basic so it funds the chemical research and production industry. Industry to build the equipment for said refineries, oil is extracted and moved to other industries like chemicals, semiconductors, composite material development, etc.

    But what do you expect from people who voted in a walking corpse and some bitch who put more colored people behind bars than anyone else, and still is being shipped by those very colored folk.

    Americans aren't very smart.

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    Post  par far Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:23 pm

    "The world bank advised Russia to curtail import substitution"


    "Revise the policy of import substitution, support the service sector, create a national institute for attracting investment — these and many other measures should be taken by Russia to achieve economic growth and integrate into global value chains. Such recommendations are contained in the World Bank’s report on the Russian economy (at the disposal of “Izvestia”).

    In addition, it is advisable to reduce import duties, abandon outdated rules of technical regulation and pay attention to protecting the rights of investors, western economists believe.

    In the meantime, Russia cannot boast of 100% involvement in international trade and a network of foreign direct investment, which means that it has untapped potential, according to the World Bank report. According to economists, a step towards such integration has many advantages for our country – it will allow us to achieve national goals, diversify the economy, increase GDP and multiply the benefits of traditional trade.

    The Ministry of Economic Development, when asked by Izvestia to comment on the report, said that a special emphasis in ensuring GDP growth is placed on supporting investment activity through the implementation of large projects, as well as on developing exports and competition, increasing labour productivity, supporting key sectors of the economy, etc.

    From the point of view of pure economic theory, the recommendations of the World Bank are generally universal, the organisation stands for “all good things,” said Dmitry Kulikov, Deputy Director of the ACRA Sovereign Ratings and Macroeconomic Analysis Group. However, in practice, when globally states become locked in themselves, trade protectionism intensifies, advice to reduce duties and curtail import substitution is not entirely consistent with the country’s economic interests. Rather, this could weaken domestic producers and reverse the process of reducing dependence on the sale of raw materials. However, complete isolation from world chains will ultimately also not benefit the economy: it will be much more difficult to catch up with leaders without technological exchange with them, the expert concluded."







    https://www.stalkerzone.org/the-world-bank-advised-russia-to-curtail-import-substitution/

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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:27 pm

    I imagine quite a few got a good laugh.

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    Post  LMFS Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:52 pm

    What a load of crap! lol1 lol1 lol1

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    Post  kvs Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:09 pm

    So the World Bank wants:

    1) Promotion of two bit service sector jobs. All those "obsolete" engineering and manufacturing jobs just have to go.

    2) Support foreign speculative capital by lowering costs for it to take advantage of Russia's people and resources.
    In other words lube the west's dick and bend over.

    This is the same drivel that Kudrin was promoting. Because Russia don't need not stinking real economy and needs
    to be a NATzO colony.

    The idiots at the World Bank are terminally deluded. This BS had some traction 15 years ago. It is now a long
    decomposed corpse.

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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:23 pm

    #Russia's coal companies are ready to replace Australian ones in the Chinese market after Beijing imposed tariffs on imports from #Australia, 30 mln tonnes of coal can be exported within 2023, #Russia currently delivers to China only 1 mln tonnes per year.

    https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status/1338924259150848002

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    Post  DerWolf Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:27 pm

    WB and IMF should be classified as terrorist organisation and banned from every country.

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    Post  kvs Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:35 pm

    DerWolf wrote:WB and IMF should be classified as terrorist organisation and banned from every country.

    Amen!

    They are tools to break down and colonize victim countries. Their shock therapy monetarist voodoo "advice" is malicious BS. They
    have a long record as economy wreckers.

    The west uses alleged corruption as a regime change con. But if you look at their economic interaction model, they want to
    be able to buy out by any means economic control in their colonies. That means full bore corruption under the guise of free
    trade and deregulation. This predatory economics model is even applied to its own members. Canada got ass raped in
    the late 1980s and 1990s by the same deregulation and foreign "investment" policy. Instead of attracting real investment
    we had foreign companies buying out and closing major Canadian companies. This was done by Alcatel for example. The
    Canadian companies were not "money losing and obsolete". Canada has lost what little economic autonomy it had and is
    a full appendage of the USA.

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    GarryB
    GarryB

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    Post  GarryB Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:02 am

    The idiots at the World Bank are terminally deluded. This BS had some traction 15 years ago. It is now a long
    decomposed corpse.

    They are not deluded... well they are if they think Russia will listen to them... the job of the world bank should be the entire worlds interests rather than any one particular country or group, but they are mainly interested in one group... the 1% who have all the money and resources and who want to access more...

    Russia opening its market and resources to purchase by rich westerners so they can make even more money with Russian assurances that they get to keep all they steal is essentially what they are saying.... they want the 1990s back...

    But for Russia there is no point in being nice and opening herself up to the international market (ie the 1% of rich westerners who want to get richer) because foreign investment like that will only open her up to being exploited.

    US sanctions have not been effective because Russia US trade was tiny and not negotiable... the US is hardly going to ban purchasing Russian Titanium for their civilian and military aircraft industries for instance... it would make their 120 million dollar F-35s 200 million dollar aircraft and create a shortage of engines too no doubt.

    As with everything I see this world bank report as showing Putin is getting things just right...

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:21 pm

    Bank of Russia retains key rate at 4.25%
    Inflation is developing above the Bank of Russia’s forecast and is expected to lie within the range of 4.6-4.9% at the end of 2020, the regulator said.

    MOSCOW, December 18. /TASS/. At its last meeting this year, the Bank of Russia decided to once again retain the key rate at 4.25% per annum, indicating a more significant and lasting impact of one-off pro-inflationary factors and an increase in inflationary expectations, according to the regulator’s press release.

    "On December 18, 2020, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to keep the key rate at 4.25% per annum. Inflation is developing above the Bank of Russia’s forecast and is expected to lie within the range of 4.6-4.9% at the end of 2020. One-off proinflationary factors are exerting more significant and prolonged upward influence on prices amid the growth in households’ and businesses’ inflation expectations and supply-side restrictions. The worsening epidemic situation in Russia and worldwide is constraining economic activity significantly less than in 2020 Q2," the regulator said.

    The Bank of Russia has downgraded its inflation outlook for 2020 from 3.9-4.2% to 4.6-4.9%. "Inflation is developing above the Bank of Russia’s forecast and is expected to lie within the range of 4.6-4.9% at the end of 2020. This is largely related to the effect of one-off proinflationary factors in certain markets and the continuing pass-through of the ruble’s earlier weakening to prices. However, these factors may exert more prolonged upward influence on prices amid the growth in households’ and businesses ’inflation expectations and supply-side restrictions," the regulator said.

    In November, annual inflation rose to 4.4% (against 4% in October), according to the press release. According to an estimate as of 14 December, it was 4.7%. "According to Bank of Russia estimates, current consumer inflation indicators reflecting the most sustainable price movements also grew in November and were close to 4% (annualized), the Central Bank noted.

    The Bank of Russia noted a pause in the recovery of the Russian economy in the fourth quarter, but at the same time notes that the impact of the pandemic on the economy was significantly less than in the Q2. Taking this into account, Russia’s GDP decline may reach around 4%, the regulator said.

    "High-frequency indicators of economic activity point to a pause in the economic recovery in 2020 Q4. However, the worsening epidemic situation in Russia and worldwide is constraining economic activity significantly less than in 2020 Q2. This is related to the targeted nature of restrictive measures and the adaptation of households and businesses to the new conditions. In view of the above and given higher than expected Q3 data, the 2020 GDP decline may reach around 4%,"the regulator said.

    At the same time, the regulator expects Russia’s economy to resume growth in the spring of 2021 as the coronavirus situation returns to normal. "In spring 2021, the Russian economy is expected to resume its sustainable growth as the coronavirus situation returns to normal. The medium-term economic growth path will be largely influenced by further coronavirus pandemic developments in Russia and across the globe, the nature of the recovery of private demand in the context of potential change in consumer and business behavior, as well as by the upcoming budget consolidation," the Bank of Russia said.

    Accommodative monetary policy will continue to support the economy throughout the next year, the regulator added.

    https://tass.com/economy/1237019

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