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    Russian Economy General News: #11

    d_taddei2
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    Post  d_taddei2 on Tue May 19, 2020 12:17 pm


    Moscow has liquidated over 96 percent of its holdings

    Russia’s holdings of US state debt amounted to $3.8 billion in March, compared with $12.5 billion a month earlier. Three years ago, the amount stood at $105 billion. Moscow has liquidated over 96 percent of its holdings in that period. The country’s long-term US Treasury securities decreased by $928 million, while short-term securities plunged by $7.8 billion to just $473 million.

    https://www.rt.com/business/488928-russia-dumps-us-dollar-debt/
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    Vann7

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    Post  Vann7 on Tue May 19, 2020 6:45 pm

    Tingsay wrote:

    Still avoiding the real question are we? lol1

    Where are the super creative Russians that can create their own according to you "so so Star Wars"?
    Hmmm?
    Where are the ultra intelligent Chosen Ones to create their own modern culture to bring down Western EmpireZ?
    Hmmm?

    Did Obama and the White House create Facebook, Amazon, Tesla Xuper Heroes and Star Wars? No!
    So why is it up to to Putin and Kremlin to create "so so" Starwars???

    Vann your still clueless lol1 lol1 lol1 lol1 lol1

    Your trolling and provocations doesn't scare me ,i can handle losers
    like you any day , but GARRYB will come in your defense ,
    so go fuck yourself.. !!!  Laughing

    So will not waste my time talking to human Trash like you.   welcome
    So go and do something more useful in life for once and hang yourself .
    Parasites like you ,will not be missed ... for sure.  Laughing






    Moscow has liquidated over 96 percent of its holdings

    Russia’s holdings of US state debt amounted to $3.8 billion in March, compared with $12.5 billion a month earlier. Three years ago, the amount stood at $105 billion. Moscow has liquidated over 96 percent of its holdings in that period. The country’s long-term US Treasury securities decreased by $928 million, while short-term securities plunged by $7.8 billion to just $473 million.

    https://www.rt.com/business/488928-russia-dumps-us-dollar-debt/


    and why it took so long to putin , 6 years ,to get rid of those holdings?
    it was in 2014  that he told was going to "Dedolarize" and "pivot to asia"
    after european sanctions for ukraine conflict...now he knows the can't pivot
    to asia , if he close the doors to europe ,it will make things easier for US.
    to contain Russia economy .

    and why not 100%.  ??
    Reason he still needs dollars ,is that russia still depends heavily on
    US business. and if you want to buy something from american bussiness
    they only accept dollars. So this is purely symbolic announcement ,the Russian
    bank will buy more dollars ,when they see a need to buy things from  american business.
    No developed nation ,in the world will listen putin calls to stop using dollars ,as long american have
    very important things to sell ,that the world needs ,and nobody else have.. then they will continue
    buying dollars.. this is why ending the domination of the dollar will not work ,with words alone ,
    as putin tried to do ,but failed. the dollar domination will end ,when american high tech business domination
    ends.. and superior alternatives to their business exist..somewhere else ,outside their control. is that simple.
    defeat their modern business with superior ones and their products no longer will be necessary to buy .

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Tue May 19, 2020 8:41 pm

    So there is a lot of freaking out going on since Russias Real GDP dropped in April of about 20% and they figure the total will raise to 10% GDP decline this year. So lots of people jumping around trying to blame each other and or state this or that.

    But essentially the sign was 2/3 of the drop was due to the coronavirus lockdown and 1/3 from oil prices. But I doubt it is mostly of oil prices and more to do with overall exports since exports dropped considerably. So now the question is, what do they do? They figure that there will be a sharp increase in spending after the lockdown ends at end of this month but I figure it wont be enough to manage the decline and overall GDP drop will be at about 10%. The figures for next year and year afterwards shows they wont return to pre crisis levels till at least 4 years from now.

    But as someone pointed out, this showed a lot of cracks in the current economic system, so what do they do now? Now mind you, majority of these "economists" completely forget Russia's reserves as they state that Russia's economy is now at mid 90's levels which I find funny because that is when Russia ran out of reserves. Reality is different - Russia sits on a massive amount of wealth and very very low debt. So what can they do?

    Well, my belief is that they need to change the payment method of how companies purchase goods between each other. A digital method. Some state that 20% of a cost on a deal of goods between companies is lost due to corruption (Bribes, and what not). So if this is the case, digitalizing the whole method of any procurements could actually eliminate that as the process becomes automatic and traceable. Second is to push the economic plan that companies have to have a quota to purchase domestically and not from foreign entities. Currently this is actually being pushed in the government but wasn't pushed at last meeting because of discrepancies. Lastly, use the reserve funds - Use it to help compensate companies to help purchase materials now that the virus quarantine is being lifted. Next would be to use the money to further investments in infrastructure development.

    Any other ideas?

    Here are the links:

    https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4341809
    https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4349167?from=hotnews
    https://www.rbc.ru/economics/19/05/2020/5ec1a2bb9a79471ed0de4175?from=center
    https://www.rbc.ru/economics/19/05/2020/5ec40acc9a79473614e8fb44?from=from_main

    Now there is a lot of hysterics where they think a GDP decline in second quarter will be something large like 16%. I doubt that. That would make it a larger decline than nearly any other country in the world and that doesnt make that much sense to me.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Tue May 19, 2020 8:57 pm

    This is pure fake news. Russia has lost 700,000 jobs compared to 33 million in the USA. There is no f*cking way that Russia's
    GDP has dropped by 20% when that of the USA has dropped 20-25%. Unemployment is a valid metric of any recession, especially
    hard edge depression-like recession caused by exogenous shocks such as financial crises and pandemics. Russia has lost 1% of
    its 70+ million workforce compared to the USA which has lost over 20% of its workforce.

    Kommersant is a 5th column propaganda rag like the Moscow Times. I would not trust their sources even if they claimed they
    were from the GKS.

    Russia's main industries are operating normally aside from a few outbreak cases resulting in factory shutdowns. Russia's GDP
    does not depend on restaurants and boutique shops. It hasn't economically degenerated to this stage just yet. Also, Russia
    haters can't have their cake and eat it too. They claim the SMEs are too small of a component of Russia's GDP, and then
    pretend that they are 80% of it.



    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Tue May 19, 2020 9:12 pm

    kvs wrote:This is pure fake news.    Russia has lost 700,000 jobs compared to 33 million in the USA.   There is no f*cking way that Russia's
    GDP has dropped by 20% when that of the USA has dropped 20-25%.   Unemployment is a valid metric of any recession, especially
    hard edge depression-like recession caused by exogenous shocks such as financial crises and pandemics.   Russia has lost 1% of
    its 70+ million workforce compared to the USA which has lost over 20% of its workforce.  

    Kommersant is a 5th column propaganda rag like the Moscow Times.   I would not trust their sources even if they claimed they
    were from the GKS.  

    Russia's main industries are operating normally aside from a few outbreak cases resulting in factory shutdowns.   Russia's GDP
    does not depend on restaurants and boutique shops.   It hasn't economically degenerated to this stage just yet.  Also, Russia
    haters can't have their cake and eat it too.  They claim the SMEs are too small of a component of Russia's GDP, and then
    pretend that they are 80% of it.




    It was RBC.ru that posted about the drop in GDP in April by those numbers. They did it based upon Ruble value of economic progress in April of 2020 vs 2019. So There may be a lot missing from the total picture they are not providing and later on we will learn more from it. I agree they are rags but if they use pure numbers and calculation then it makes sense. So far, it may be basic math that they are referring to.
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    Tingsay

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    Post  Tingsay on Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 pm

    Vann7 wrote:
    Your trolling and provocations doesn't scare me ,i can handle losers
    like you any day , but GARRYB will come in your defense ,
    so go fuck yourself.. !!!  Laughing

    So will not waste my time talking to human Trash like you.   welcome
    So go and do something more useful in life for once and hang yourself .
    Parasites like you ,will not be missed ... for sure.  Laughing


    So.... you still can't answer the real questions then?
    You resort to name calling cos you know you can't answer it.

    Ok. lol1

    "Handeling Losers" is not avoiding the questions, dumbass.
    I am not trolling you, I am asking you legitimate questions.

    Here are the questions again:

    Why are the Chosen Ones allowing Putin to stop them from creating Superior Star Wars Modern CultureZ?
    Why are they allowing an idiot like Putin to stop them from bringing to the world a Jack Ma/Elon Musk Genius?

    Where are the Elite 4th Dimensional thinkers of the Universe in battling the US Empire?
    What the heck are they waiting for?
    Why are they not creating Superior Star Wars Movies to bring Western audience to side of Russia?
    Where are there superior tech biznizes?

    Are they waiting for Dumbass Putin to give them the signal? But he a dumbass tho. Why would they, the destined chosen ones to bring down Us empire need the permission from a dumbass?


    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Tue May 19, 2020 11:42 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    kvs wrote:This is pure fake news.    Russia has lost 700,000 jobs compared to 33 million in the USA.   There is no f*cking way that Russia's
    GDP has dropped by 20% when that of the USA has dropped 20-25%.   Unemployment is a valid metric of any recession, especially
    hard edge depression-like recession caused by exogenous shocks such as financial crises and pandemics.   Russia has lost 1% of
    its 70+ million workforce compared to the USA which has lost over 20% of its workforce.  

    Kommersant is a 5th column propaganda rag like the Moscow Times.   I would not trust their sources even if they claimed they
    were from the GKS.  

    Russia's main industries are operating normally aside from a few outbreak cases resulting in factory shutdowns.   Russia's GDP
    does not depend on restaurants and boutique shops.   It hasn't economically degenerated to this stage just yet.  Also, Russia
    haters can't have their cake and eat it too.  They claim the SMEs are too small of a component of Russia's GDP, and then
    pretend that they are 80% of it.




    It was RBC.ru that posted about the drop in GDP in April by those numbers.  They did it based upon Ruble value of economic progress in April of 2020 vs 2019.  So There may be a lot missing from the total picture they are not providing and later on we will learn more from it.  I agree they are rags but if they use pure numbers and calculation then it makes sense.  So far, it may be basic math that they are referring to.

    RBC is not a credible outlet either.

    I will wait for real numbers from GKS.

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed May 20, 2020 7:21 am

    On every website there are idiots... people who annoy you, and getting rid of them doesn't normally help because when you get rid of them someone always steps up and takes their place.

    There is value in such people, despite the frustration they cause because they prevent the Yes Man type collapse that happens when you ignore everything anyone with a different viewpoint has to say.

    However when people descend to abuse, of those they are talking to and also of moderators who they claim will protect their rivals... which is ironic because the only reason I did not ban Tingsay for abuse is because Vann was abusing him as much as he was being abused, so in reality I was protecting you both.

    I have had a few complaints, so I am giving you a break of 14 days...

    Call it a Covid 19 break.

    Take the time to think about why you come here and why you can't play well with others.

    If you choose to return in 14 days and you act the same the next ban will be permanent.

    I am not saying you can only come back if you praise Putin, and agree with everyone else about everything... I am saying you can only come back if you can behave like a mature sensible adult and stop abusing those that don't agree with you... especially moderators.

    Sorry for off topic, but a good reminder to everyone that just because someone thinks a different way from you does not make them an idiot or a moron.

    Showing proof from sources they trust and they are still in denial then you might have a case, but you don't get any prize for calling them names on a public forum.

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed May 20, 2020 7:59 am

    Who? What?

    Anyway, I agree KVS, I'm gonna wait for official numbers. The numbers provided was by RBC own "expert".
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed May 20, 2020 1:14 pm

    Sorry I wasn't clear...


    So go and do something more useful in life for once and hang yourself .
    Parasites like you ,will not be missed ... for sure.  



    Telling someone they should kill themselves and no one would miss them is not acceptable.

    Vann is banned for 14 days... if his language and behaviour have not improved if he chooses to return and that ban will become permanent.

    GarryB
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    owais.usmani

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    Post  owais.usmani on Wed May 20, 2020 8:52 pm

    https://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-gdp-shrinks-by-20-in-april-but-government-maintains-a-triple-surplus-183597/?source=russia

    Russia’s GDP shrinks by 20% in April, but government maintains a triple surplus


    Russia’s economy shrank by a fifth in size in real terms in April, according to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Finance, but at the same time the government has managed to maintain a triple surplus in its external account.

    Russia's nominal GDP shrank by 28%, of which two-thirds was due to the nation-wide lockdown that began on March 30 and another third was due to the collapse in oil prices, the Ministry of Finance said, reports RBC.

    The real contraction of the economy in April could be 20%, according to the Ministry, once currency effects are calculated out. If confirmed the fall would be worse than the 7.5% GDP contraction Russia suffered in the 2008 crisis. However, the contraction for the full year this year will be less, as the economy is widely expected to claw back some of its losses in the second half of the year.

    At the same time, the government has reported encouraging external account results. Russia is still running a triple surplus: the trade balance, currency account and federal government are all reporting surpluses of $3.8bn, $1.8bn and 0.2% of GDP respectively.

    The better than expected result was partly due to a concurrent collapse in imports that offset to some extent the fall in revenue from oil and commodity exports.

    The narrow budget surplus highlights the Kremlin’s extreme caution to preserve its financial firepower in this crisis. While other countries have committed anything between 5% and 20% of GDP to stimulus packages, the Russian package currently amounts to 1.9% of GDP, although that is anticipated to rise as work begins.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Wed May 20, 2020 9:05 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:https://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-gdp-shrinks-by-20-in-april-but-government-maintains-a-triple-surplus-183597/?source=russia

    Russia’s GDP shrinks by 20% in April, but government maintains a triple surplus



    Russia’s economy shrank by a fifth in size in real terms in April, according to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Finance, but at the same time the government has managed to maintain a triple surplus in its external account.

    Russia's nominal GDP shrank by 28%, of which two-thirds was due to the nation-wide lockdown that began on March 30 and another third was due to the collapse in oil prices, the Ministry of Finance said, reports RBC.

    The real contraction of the economy in April could be 20%, according to the Ministry, once currency effects are calculated out. If confirmed the fall would be worse than the 7.5% GDP contraction Russia suffered in the 2008 crisis. However, the contraction for the full year this year will be less, as the economy is widely expected to claw back some of its losses in the second half of the year.

    At the same time, the government has reported encouraging external account results. Russia is still running a triple surplus: the trade balance, currency account and federal government are all reporting surpluses of $3.8bn, $1.8bn and 0.2% of GDP respectively.

    The better than expected result was partly due to a concurrent collapse in imports that offset to some extent the fall in revenue from oil and commodity exports.

    The narrow budget surplus highlights the Kremlin’s extreme caution to preserve its financial firepower in this crisis. While other countries have committed anything between 5% and 20% of GDP to stimulus packages, the Russian package currently amounts to 1.9% of GDP, although that is anticipated to rise as work begins.

    You are trolling with unconfirmed BS from RBC. Keep wanking, since that appears to make you feel important.

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed May 20, 2020 9:12 pm

    And he doesn't even read this he just reposts what I posted already.  Clear sign of a troll.

    Instead of repeat of news and repeat of ourselves, I think users should read the thread before posting. As well, conclusions should be made only when official numbers are provided by official sources.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Wed May 20, 2020 9:44 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:And he doesn't even read this he just reposts what I posted already.  Clear sign of a troll.

    Instead of repeat of news and repeat of ourselves, I think users should read the thread before posting. As well, conclusions should be made only when official numbers are provided by official sources.

    Trolls and similar are not interested in contributing to this forum. At the very least there should be corroboration for the alleged
    claims of some source. Russia's GDP is characterized by large enterprises and those enterprises have kept operating and are
    not locked down. Only irrelevant to Russia's GDP restaurants and boutiques are shut down (and bitching). They do not
    constitute 20% of Russia's GDP. In the the USA they do.

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Thu May 21, 2020 5:28 am

    What is with this reaction guys?

    Is the article wrong?

    I would expect considering the situation... ie Russia under sanctions from the west and in the middle of a pandemic that economic figures might show some effects... isn't that normal?

    A 30% drop from crippling western sanctions and a national pandemic that force people to stay and home and not work is barely a scratch... I would take that as being rather good news... in comparison the US has lost more people than they lost during the Vietnam war over a period of about 6 months compared with a 10 year conflict... wonder what their real figures would be... does anyone actually work out their real figures with all the padding and BS removed?
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    Post  Firebird on Thu May 21, 2020 3:03 pm

    Glad to see Vann has finally felt the banhammer.
    Every time I see a giant wall of text I know to zoom past, because I know who wrote it.
    More importantly, I also remember this poster's appalling defence of Nazism. (Strangely enough he later said that the Russian presidency should be held by a GERMAN!). Sadly once or twice Nazism has infested this forum with 2 or 3 posters in the years I remember. I can say for a fact all the Russian born residents of Russia I know would happily hospitalise anyone attempting to defend Nazism. 27 + million Russian men, women and children were murdered by the filth that is Nazism. And many tens of millions more worldwide. Contrary to Vann's claim, this is NOT defensible in any way, shape or form.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Thu May 21, 2020 4:10 pm

    Firebird wrote:Glad to see Vann has finally felt the banhammer.
    Every time I see a giant wall of text I know to zoom past, because I know who wrote it.
    More importantly, I also remember this poster's appalling defence of Nazism. (Strangely enough he later said that the Russian presidency should be held by a GERMAN!). Sadly once or twice Nazism has infested this forum with 2 or 3 posters in the years I remember. I can say for a fact all the Russian born residents of Russia I know would happily hospitalise anyone attempting to defend Nazism. 27 + million Russian men, women and children were murdered by the filth that is Nazism. And many tens of millions more worldwide. Contrary to Vann's claim, this is NOT defensible in any way, shape or form.

    Yeah when I read Vann7's thinly veiled Neo-Nazi stance some years back, I decided to put that pin head goofball sandwich on the ignore list. With that being said, I also get some entertainment from Tingsay's epic counter-trolling lol! lol1
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Thu May 21, 2020 5:02 pm

    GarryB wrote:What is with this reaction guys?

    Is the article wrong?

    I would expect considering the situation... ie Russia under sanctions from the west and in the middle of a pandemic that economic figures might show some effects... isn't that normal?

    A 30% drop from crippling western sanctions and a national pandemic that force people to stay and home and not work is barely a scratch... I would take that as being rather good news... in comparison the US has lost more people than they lost during the Vietnam war over a period of about 6 months compared with a 10 year conflict... wonder what their real figures would be... does anyone actually work out their real figures with all the padding and BS removed?

    Because the numbers don't add up
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Thu May 21, 2020 6:10 pm

    GarryB wrote:What is with this reaction guys?

    Is the article wrong?

    I would expect considering the situation... ie Russia under sanctions from the west and in the middle of a pandemic that economic figures might show some effects... isn't that normal?

    A 30% drop from crippling western sanctions and a national pandemic that force people to stay and home and not work is barely a scratch... I would take that as being rather good news... in comparison the US has lost more people than they lost during the Vietnam war over a period of about 6 months compared with a 10 year conflict... wonder what their real figures would be... does anyone actually work out their real figures with all the padding and BS removed?

    The 20% is the annualized loss since March until now.  But the unemployment figures in Russia are grossly inconsistent with such
    a large drop.   In the US they are fully consistent since the GDP and unemployment increase are about the same.   The US is much
    more dependent of small business than Russia.   Restaurants, boutiques, corner grocery stores, ghetto liquor stores, tourism, etc.
    are a much bigger part of the US economy than in Russia.  

    33 million fresh Covid-19 unemployed in the USA vs 700,000 in Russia contradicts claims of a similar GDP contraction.   Also,
    the Russia is a gas station posing as a country drivel is strong in this RBC article.   Russia's oil and gas exports are not 50%
    of its economy, they are 7% including domestic consumption.   And those exports have not collapsed to zero.   So we are
    looking at a worst case contraction from 7% to 4%.   It will take a lot of major contractions for Russian industries to result
    in a 20% GDP drop.

    RBC is a western sycophant MSM rag.   They parrot NATzO propaganda talking points.  Here they have been caught with their
    pants down in flagrante innuendo.


    Last edited by kvs on Thu May 21, 2020 9:55 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo removal)
    Hole
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    Post  Hole on Thu May 21, 2020 9:42 pm

    Germany has been in full lockdown and lost between 7 to 10% in april. And we export expensive shit like cars and machines that nobody buys at the moment. Most of the workers are in a special program, they work only a few hours and the government is paying most of their wages so that the companies don´t lay them of.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Thu May 21, 2020 9:56 pm

    Hole wrote:Germany has been in full lockdown and lost between 7 to 10% in april. And we export expensive shit like cars and machines that nobody buys at the moment. Most of the workers are in a special program, they work only a few hours and the government is paying most of their wages so that the companies don´t lay them of.

    I bet Germany's GDP will not fall by 20%.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri May 22, 2020 3:15 am

    kvs wrote:33 million fresh Covid-19 unemployed in the USA vs 700,000 in Russia contradicts claims of a similar GDP contraction.

    Virtually 40 million US citizens have filed for unemployment since March.

    https://www.russiadefence.net/t8015p925-coronavirus-pandemic-2019-20#284000
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Fri May 22, 2020 3:30 am

    Because the numbers don't add up

    RBC is a western sycophant MSM rag. They parrot NATzO propaganda talking points. Here they have been caught with their
    pants down in flagrante innuendo.

    So why can't you post this sort of thing without insulting fellow forum members?

    You don't need to post pages and pages of analysis... but if you keep posting insults and claims of trolling then I am inclined to take action against you instead of the members you are complaining about.

    If you genuinely think this is actually trolling... don't reply to them, send me a PM with a link and an explanation of what you think is going wrong and we can discuss it.

    I will also talk to the member involved and get their side and we can work it out without any abuse or name calling.
    kvs
    kvs

    Posts : 6196
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    Location : Canuckistan

    Russian Economy General News: #11 - Page 25 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #11

    Post  kvs on Fri May 22, 2020 3:51 am

    GarryB wrote:
    Because the numbers don't add up

    RBC is a western sycophant MSM rag.   They parrot NATzO propaganda talking points.  Here they have been caught with their
    pants down in flagrante innuendo.

    So why can't you post this sort of thing without insulting fellow forum members?

    You don't need to post pages and pages of analysis... but if you keep posting insults and claims of trolling then I am inclined to take action against you instead of the members you are complaining about.

    If you genuinely think this is actually trolling... don't reply to them, send me a PM with a link and an explanation of what you think is going wrong and we can discuss it.

    I will also talk to the member involved and get their side and we can work it out without any abuse or name calling.

    OK then. It is clear that this site favours trolls.

    Bye.
    miketheterrible
    miketheterrible

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    Join date : 2016-11-06

    Russian Economy General News: #11 - Page 25 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #11

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri May 22, 2020 4:57 am

    This site does favor trolls over real contributors. Anyway, KVS don't worry about it.

    I suggest we just use facts and move on.

    Anyway, the so called drop doesn't make much sense tbh. Germany is reliant on small and medium companies, as well as services. If they were on total lockdown, then how did they face a much smaller drop than Russia while Russia still holds a surplus?

    None of that adds up.

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    Russian Economy General News: #11 - Page 25 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #11

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