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67 posters

    Russian Navy: Status and News #5

    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Tue May 04, 2021 4:46 pm

    GarryB wrote:Any country wanting to sink Russian carriers had better understand that nuclear retaliation will damage their economic growth for the next quarter at least....

    So if your solution to the fact that aircraft carriers suck is to launch nukes why bother with aircraft carriers in the first place?

    Just invest in nukes... oh wait, they already invested in nukes and are getting their money's worth unlike with carriers



    GarryB wrote:When was the last time an aircraft carrier was sunk?...

    Several months before the end of last war in which aircraft carriers were used in naval warfare

    They were going down like 2$ whores for 4 years straight:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers

    Their stats suck when you put it all together and this was waaaay before missiles were invented

    That Russian one came close to sinking all by itself just recently though, does that count? Razz

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    gbu48098

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    Post  gbu48098 Tue May 04, 2021 5:38 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Several months before the end of last war in which aircraft carriers were used in naval warfare
    I think most can agree that modern carriers are safe and yet as vulnerable as ever but thats pretty much everything.....can't just fold it in, we can leave that everything is dust and ashes eventually to spiritual realm. Deterrence and will the to use and go on offensive are as real as ever. Ww2 generation is different and we do not have modern comparisions yet...USSR did not sink carriers in viet or korean wars or any other country so far

    They were going down like 2$ whores for 4 years straight:
    Good talk

    Their stats suck when you put it all together and this was waaaay before missiles were invented
    That Russian one came close to sinking all by itself just recently though, does that count? Razz
    This is the age of deterrence and pussy footing with proxy wars and women wielding dicks
    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Wed May 05, 2021 12:34 am

    GarryB wrote:Transferring the Su-35 technology and equipment to the Su-33s would make the most sense in terms of commonality across the board of Flankers in Russian service,

    Indeed, they may not be the first priority in terms of defence of the country or amount of airframes, but technically they would really receive a massive increase in capabilities with Su-35 level upgrade in terms of engines and avionics. TO from the ramp demands the most thrust among all Flanker variants. Since the acceleration on the TO run is close to 1 g, for every extra tf in the engines, you gain 2 t MTOW. But what is most relevant for the comparison is how much of the CTOL MTOW you are losing by using the ramp. With 2x 2 tf extra, you may be able to TO with full fuel load and a respectable payload even from the short runs. I should actually check that, but I don't think I should be off by a big margin.

    but the MiG-29KR/35 is a much better fit for the Kuznetsov


    The Su-33 is remarkable in terms of folded footprint. Of course the bigger the plane, the more difficult it is to pack a big number of them onboard. I think the 3000 km range of the plane and potential capability to carry big AShM in the centerline pylon is a big plus for it. The MiG-29K has no real argument against any existing naval plane like F-18, F-35 or Rafale. When VMF is so below in numbers, not having an advantage that compensates that is not specially good.

    but longer term a CVN replacement for the Kuznetsov will be in development and would likely use a mix of Su-57K and LMFS to give depth and numbers of aircraft on board.

    If they get a balanced CVN with Su-57K before I get old I will already be a happy man.

    They don't need a huge number of CVNs to compensate for anything... they will have radars and optical sensors and sonars on ships and subs and helicopters and fixed wing planes and drones of all types and the best damn SAMs and guns on the planet... How many MiG-35s and Su-35s would Russia need right now to protect its national borders... when operating with MiG-31s and of course a nation wide IADS.

    SAM magazines in a ship are necessarily limited. And the West will, I assume, come up with a decent AShM sometime. I do think VMF needs to have qualitative advantages, because the quantitative superiority is with the West and will remain there for more than one decade, even under the most optimistic scenarios.

    The US has an impressive fleet but how keen are they to lose some of those ships?

    True, for a bully coming home everyday after having received a beating is not good business, so attacking in unclear assessment of the possible outcome will normally be discarded. But if by accumulating forces they can avoid being hit, that will be the path they will follow. For instance, having lots of CBG operating far and still managing to have the firepower needed to overwhelm Russian AD as you suggest below. Is not very practical, since US already said they would need 15 CBG to cover all potential conflict areas, but it is a risk Russia may like to avoid.

    They have an obvious history of overspending and stealing from taxpayers with products they know could never work even with the trillions thrown at it that they do.   clown

    Wait...  unshaven

    Having different types of Corvettes is useful for different purposes, but such small ships makes it harder to make them super all purpose vessels.

    Yes, if 22350 is enough, then why 20385 is not? Soon we end up by the Ukrainian rafts with some MANPADs and RPGs, more than enough to defend Russia and keep megalomaniac VMF leadership in check. Good, that every naval professional knows what each type of vessel is designed for...

    Anti ship missiles are not the best way of keeping enemy ships back...


    I myself defend that, but VMF will not have a fully developed air component within this decade and they will need to rely on the long range of the Tsirkon. 1000-1500 km with the risk of SSGNs being much closer is not a very comfortable situation for any navy, much less if it has been decaying in complacency for so long as the USN. It may well bridge this decade for the VMF with decent results.

    A corvette by itself with a 150km range SAM could be attacked by a flight of Hornets armed with Harpoons from a carrier 1,500km away... the carrier is outside of the range of the Zircon and the Harpoons will be launched from outside the range of the Corvettes SAMs, so it just becomes a situation where who runs out of missiles first... the Corvette in SAMs or the Carrier in Harpoons...

    Yes that is clear. The radar horizon of the corvette is very small, the saturation threshold is relatively low and the magazine depth is clearly marginal. Compared with an Orlan, with several hundreds of SAMs and capability to carry 40N6-sized missile that would outrange the Harpoon, and radars placed twice or thrice higher, obviously does not even play in the same league.

    Hypersonic missiles don't make carriers obsolete... groups of ships with no aircraft and no AWACS support are the things that are obsolete...


    Agreed, it is not carriers that become obsolete if AD does not advance in parallel, is the whole concept of surface fleets. And the carriers and bigger vessels will be by far the best protected assets.

    perhaps including nuclear weapons.

    Nukes will not be used in such situations. Not by Russia, they clearly prefer not to enter venues where they do not have escalation control. They are smart enough.

    The point is that most of the time they will actually do nothing and just let Russia continue doing what it was doing... which is what Russia wants.

    Exactly, that is the idea.

    It is where cruisers shine... imagine the Peresvet (spelling) system they could carry... imagine a ship with an extra mini nuke power plant specifically designed to power the onboard laser system.

    Certainly, a big vessel with a NPP is the ideal carrier of such systems. Laser or RF, it does not matter, but those are going to be bulky, expensive and require huge amounts of power and energy, plus shielding and distance from the crew and other devices. Clearly not ideal for corvettes but probably ok for a carrier in the short to medium term.

    lancelot wrote:So these are 25 MW gas turbines in addition to the 20 MW gas turbines the Gorshkov uses?
    I thought M90FR already had units up to 25 MW. I guess I was wrong.
    GE has the LM2500 series with performance ranging from 25 MW to 35 MW.
    The Rolls Royce MT30 ranges from 25 MW to 40 MW.
    The MT30 is based on the 777 engine. If you look at Russian aircraft engines even the future PD-35 is like 787 class not 777.

    Sure those engines will be useful if they go for a 10000+ tons destroyer. But if they just want to make a 7000 tons ship I think 4x 20MW engines would be enough.
    What is the power of the engines on the Udaloy?

    The information is scarce by now, but it makes sense that they develop somewhat bigger engines for all the bigger hulls they want to have, starting by the 22350M, instead of having many smaller engines with more shafts or more complex gearboxes. Udaloys have like 90 MW COGAG power on two shafts if I am not wrong.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Wed May 05, 2021 5:00 am

    @Papa

    Yes Japanese did lose a lot of their CV's but that was also due to bad designs, the Japanese never bothered to build features that would keep the carriers afloat after they got hit, Examples include Akagi and Kaga, they only started to do this with the Taiho class which was their last carrier and was sunk due to incompetence, not the US to be fair.

    Whereas the Essex class was built with taking damage in mind and took tons of damage during midway and was still operational and fight worthy.

    Carriers aren't worthless, Submarines need air cover and planes allow you to strike in ways ships cannot and they offer utility, While I hardly agree with Garry on many things, in this area they are right to a degree.

    Another problem you do not realize, is the fighters can attack outside the range of the AD while not putting the carrier at risk.

    A battlegroup with no CV would just be slim pickings it would be like this

    Wave 1- Sinks one ship

    Wave 2- Sinks another

    The carrier would just keep hounding and twiddling away the battlegroup with no cover and it wouldn't need to return for bombs, as munitions ships would bring it more.

    @GarryB

    Suggesting they will place a Naval SU-57 on that carrier is regarded, you are right when you say stupid statements, that is a stupid statement.

    They aren't going to put a Naval SU-57 on the Kuz. Sure a future carrier probably but the Kuz? No that stupid to say.

    Due to weight issues and the lack of catapult alone.


    Last edited by SeigSoloyvov on Wed May 05, 2021 5:12 am; edited 3 times in total
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Wed May 05, 2021 5:02 am

    gbu48098 wrote:
    GarryB wrote:
    So they are following the best naval traditions after the US ship caught fire and burned out in three days because they couldn't put the fire out... typical American incompetence and lack of knowledge about fire.
    Ha ha, you couldn't resist bringing US again into the center of the world of every issue, attention and bar whores try to do this and you are neither :-).....incompetence and indifference knows no nationality and mercilessly leads to bad and tragic results. Not the first time Kuznetzov suffered these near fatal accidents. Waiting for your justifications and bringing in unrelated things into mix....as bad as US Military is becoming their scale and mission rate is huge compared to any other country and yet accidents are not that many but yes declining discipline and skill leading to more accidents. Stay or keep it relevant.....

    Yeah Garry does this a lot, you get used to it.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Wed May 05, 2021 7:22 am

    Ha ha, you couldn't resist bringing US again into the center of the world of every issue,

    If the Russian military is so fucked up obviously it makes sense to use a much better skilled and much better funded and much more capable example as a comparison and the US springs to mind because it is the biggest and gets more money than most of the rest of the world combined to piss away on crap.... why would I not mention them?

    ..incompetence and indifference knows no nationality and mercilessly leads to bad and tragic results. Not the first time Kuznetzov suffered these near fatal accidents.

    It is hilarious... the first part says shit happens in every fleet to every navy, well if that is the case then isn't problems with ships like the problems the Kuznetsov has had going to be pretty normal and par for the course.... or did the Kuznetsov sleep with your mother and never call her back afterwards?

    Waiting for your justifications and bringing in unrelated things into mix....as bad as US Military is becoming their scale and mission rate is huge compared to any other country and yet accidents are not that many but yes declining discipline and skill leading to more accidents. Stay or keep it relevant.....

    They have had problems with the Kuznetsov, but it is still their only aircraft carrier which makes it important to the Russian fleet.

    So if your solution to the fact that aircraft carriers suck is to launch nukes why bother with aircraft carriers in the first place?

    No. Any country sinking a US carrier can expect to be nuked... that is a significant deterrent to countries and a really good reason not to try.

    Trying to sink a Russian carrier would probably lead to the platforms trying to be sunk and the country of origin being attacked.

    Aircraft carriers make surface groups of ships much stronger and harder to defeat... to the point where very few countries could sink an operational Russian carrier group, and even less will try.

    The only country with a chance would be the US and that would mean WWIII anyway.

    Any other country would be obliterated with conventional or nuclear weapons... but you will notice outside of actual war countries don't tend to sink ships of any kind because the provocation is dangerous and ultimately self defeating... a little country likely couldn't sink a Russian carrier and in trying to do so will lose a lot of ships and subs.

    Having a carrier makes such things easier for Russia... an aircraft carrier doesn't make you a target, it makes you a threat.

    Just invest in nukes... oh wait, they already invested in nukes and are getting their money's worth unlike with carriers

    So what you are saying is that if the US and HATO navies decide to start enforcing naval blockades and regime change actions on any major trading partner of Russia to prevent both from developing and trading... which is Russia going to nuke?

    Ships on their own without carrier support are much easier to sink so if you say they would sink a carrier then any smaller ship is even more likely to be sunk.

    Several months before the end of last war in which aircraft carriers were used in naval warfare

    Such carriers had no defences at all... but I guess because all tanks can be penetrated that no tanks are needed... stop the Armata programme... and of course the amazing air defence systems of Russia means big heavy fighters are stupid wastes of money... withdraw Su-27s and Su-30s and Su-35s as well as Su-57s in fact get rid of all their fighters.... they need huge airfields that are expensive and are just sitting ducks... just have SAMs... totally mobile... and if you are getting rid of all airfields that means A-50 and A-100 should be scrapped because ground based radar should be plenty... right?

    But then those big radar sites would be horribly vulnerable too, maybe make millions of those small battlefield radars mounted on the roof of a Tigr and get complete coverage that way...

    They were going down like 2$ whores for 4 years straigh

    Yet they kept producing them afterwards.

    France has a mini carrier in the form of the CdG and the carrier design they are planning to replace it is about 30K ton heavier at about 75K ton with cats and AWACS aircraft.... the madness...

    I think most can agree that modern carriers are safe and yet as vulnerable as ever but thats pretty much everything...

    Nothing is safe in war, to expect it to be so is childish... you can't play Chess if you don't want to lose any pieces.

    Indeed, they may not be the first priority in terms of defence of the country or amount of airframes, but technically they would really receive a massive increase in capabilities with Su-35 level upgrade in terms of engines and avionics.

    Keeping older avionics and engines in service can become more expensive than an upgrade to be the same as the others.

    Of course the bigger the plane, the more difficult it is to pack a big number of them onboard. I think the 3000 km range of the plane and potential capability to carry big AShM in the centerline pylon is a big plus for it.

    Not sure it would get airborne with a heavy centreline weapon... it is primarily AA.

    The MiG-29K has no real argument against any existing naval plane like F-18, F-35 or Rafale.

    An upgrade to MiG-35 level makes it no worse in most areas and better in some.

    When VMF is so below in numbers, not having an advantage that compensates that is not specially good.

    They are never going to have thousands of fighters on carriers so they are going to be expensive anyway, so they might as well spend a little extra money and make sure they are the best.

    And the West will, I assume, come up with a decent AShM sometime.

    If the west is launching Anti ship missiles at Russian ships then all bets are off so a couple of manouvering hypersonic missiles with tactical nuclear warheads would be my go to response... why wait?

    I do think VMF needs to have qualitative advantages, because the quantitative superiority is with the West and will remain there for more than one decade, even under the most optimistic scenarios.

    Against a well organised and well managed defence numbers don't have enormous value... if Europe didn't learn from WWI that marching slowly towards enemy lines against machine guns doesn't work because you are going to run out of men before they run out of bullets.

    Russia doesn't need more carriers than the west... they just need enough missiles.

    I myself defend that, but VMF will not have a fully developed air component within this decade and they will need to rely on the long range of the Tsirkon. 1000-1500 km with the risk of SSGNs being much closer is not a very comfortable situation for any navy, much less if it has been decaying in complacency for so long as the USN. It may well bridge this decade for the VMF with decent results.

    Zircon is just the first missile... over time they will likely develop a wide range of very long range very high speed weapons.

    Having 1,000km range missiles makes little sense if you can't send something out to have a look to make sure it is worthy of a missile.

    Yes that is clear. The radar horizon of the corvette is very small, the saturation threshold is relatively low and the magazine depth is clearly marginal. Compared with an Orlan, with several hundreds of SAMs and capability to carry 40N6-sized missile that would outrange the Harpoon, and radars placed twice or thrice higher, obviously does not even play in the same league.

    Not to mention the Orlan can carry 5 helicopters... one of which could easily be a Ka-31 AEW aircraft to detect low flying threats early.

    Laser or RF, it does not matter, but those are going to be bulky, expensive and require huge amounts of power and energy, plus shielding and distance from the crew and other devices. Clearly not ideal for corvettes but probably ok for a carrier in the short to medium term.

    Most importantly the first systems might be limited and big and bulky and expensive... but over time and improvements and modifications and materials development they will get smaller and destroyers will get them... they already have optical dazzlers on their ships for optically guided weapons...

    Due to weight issues and the lack of catapult alone.

    The only problem for the Su-57 on the K right now is lack of folding wings... it is smaller and lighter than the Su-33 and with internal weapons has less drag and more lifting devices... and it has rather more engine power even without the new more powerful engines that it will have by 2024...

    It was always intended for the Su-57 to be a carrier based aircraft to replace the Su-33... the former is not in production and the cost of making more would not be much different from the costs of modifying the Su-57.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Wed May 05, 2021 7:34 am

    1. No it was never intended to replace the 33's the Mig where this is a lie

    2. No it is virtually the same weight as a SU-33, maybe minus a couple of hundred pounds, The engine also doesn't change this problem.

    3. The SU-33 is already incapable of taking off with full load and has to burn a considerable amount of fuel when taking off anyways.

    4, Attempting to fold the words would cause serious flaws to the entire design that could not be fixed.

    5. There are also other issues

    The SU-57 isn't compatible with the Kuz likely will be with future CV's but not this one.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Wed May 05, 2021 11:02 am

    Whereas the Essex class was built with taking damage in mind and took tons of damage during midway and was still operational and fight worthy

    Well ww2 carriers were much simplier.

    Modern carriers are full of bombs and their aircraft need all the deck to land and take off. A hole in the landing zone means carrier is not usable anymore. Take out the steam system for catapults and it's not usable.

    A missile hitting them will very likely touch some fuel or stored weapons and create massive fire or explosions.

    And let's not talk about hitting the nuclear reactor.

    Kinzhal/kh 32 have top attack mode so if they succeed they will hit the deck and go down and have a chance to destroy the reactors.
    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Wed May 05, 2021 1:19 pm

    GarryB wrote:If the west is launching Anti ship missiles at Russian ships then all bets are off so a couple of manouvering hypersonic missiles with tactical nuclear warheads would be my go to response... why wait?

    Nukes are reserved for existential threats, if you cannot handle things conventionally then you don't play the game of power projection. That is exactly the way Russia is behaving.

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:They aren't going to put a Naval SU-57 on the Kuz. Sure a future carrier probably but the Kuz? No that stupid to say.

    Due to weight issues and the lack of catapult alone.

    I don't think it is likely that they use the Su-57 in numbers in the Kuznetsov, for several reasons, but weight / catapult are hardly among them. The Su-57 is clearly better than the Su-33 in those regards and is also smaller.
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    Post  gbu48098 Wed May 05, 2021 3:08 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    If the Russian military is so fucked up obviously it makes sense to use a much better skilled and much better funded and much more capable example as a comparison and the US springs to mind because it is the biggest and gets more money than most of the rest of the world combined to piss away on crap.... why would I not mention them?
    I did not say they are fucked up....my comment was related to this specific ship and in general they have quite a few in-dock disasters percapita.....if you want to compare to US then Russian navy simply does not have the scale to compare in statistical relevance especially surface navy. So comparing US accidents to Russian accidents needs normalization.....Plus there is a time to compare yourself to others....


    It is hilarious... the first part says shit happens in every fleet to every navy, well if that is the case then isn't problems with ships like the problems the Kuznetsov has had going to be pretty normal and par for the course....
    You seem to have no understanding of basic stats, try to refresh atleast the high school level stats concepts and there were some great Russian ones that contributed in that field since you have a hard-on for them. It does not seem like numbers and real data has any value to you....this ship has spent more time anchored than it is on the sea. Leave the mothers out....I wont stoop to your level


    They have had problems with the Kuznetsov, but it is still their only aircraft carrier which makes it important to the Russian fleet.
    Dude, atleast read what people say and you are kiwi, so English is your first language I am guessing. When did I say it needs to be scrapped, I clearly said based on Gorshokov work, they have experience in working these ships but does not look like its priority to fix this one.

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    Post  gbu48098 Wed May 05, 2021 3:10 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Yeah Garry does this a lot, you get used to it.
    Looks like its more of a fetish to bring US into everything, kinda nonsensical but what can you say...whatever rocks his boat and gets his rocks off
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    Post  GarryB Thu May 06, 2021 4:52 am

    1. No it was never intended to replace the 33's the Mig where this is a lie

    They converted their Su-27 into the naval Su-33, but they wont convert their Su-57 into a naval version... they have said several times that further development will include a ship based model.

    2. No it is virtually the same weight as a SU-33, maybe minus a couple of hundred pounds, The engine also doesn't change this problem.

    Even if it was exactly the same weight with the same engines and the same external weapon load drag... the Su-33 operates on the K so the Su-57 should be able to operate on there too... and the Su-57 is lighter than the Su-35 and the Su-33 is heavier than the Su-35 because of the folding wings and structural strengthening.

    So lighter and more powerful engines means can take off from shorter distances...

    3. The SU-33 is already incapable of taking off with full load and has to burn a considerable amount of fuel when taking off anyways.

    The Su-33 never operates at full load... it carries air to air missiles... at most it might carry 2-3 tons externally... nothing like its full payload capacity.

    4, Attempting to fold the words would cause serious flaws to the entire design that could not be fixed.

    They already managed to do it with the Su-27... why do you think they can't do it again?

    The SU-57 isn't compatible with the Kuz likely will be with future CV's but not this one.

    Specifically why.

    Modern carriers are full of bombs and their aircraft need all the deck to land and take off. A hole in the landing zone means carrier is not usable anymore. Take out the steam system for catapults and it's not usable.

    That is why they would use their air defences to stop any damage in the first place... any ship hit with a modern missile is going to stop what it was doing and start trying to make it home without sinking... BTW the French Navy is going from the 40K ton CdG to a 75K ton new carrier... where are you complaints about that being stupid and obsolete?

    A missile hitting them will very likely touch some fuel or stored weapons and create massive fire or explosions.

    And let's not talk about hitting the nuclear reactor.

    Hitting it in the first place would be the trick really.

    Kinzhal/kh 32 have top attack mode so if they succeed they will hit the deck and go down and have a chance to destroy the reactors.

    Indeed... but how many does the US navy have... or HATO perhaps?

    By the time the west has manouvering hypersonic missiles the Russians will have perfected their defences against them and all of a sudden they wont be so dangerous... for Russia.

    Nukes are reserved for existential threats, if you cannot handle things conventionally then you don't play the game of power projection. That is exactly the way Russia is behaving.

    Nukes will always be something that need to be factored in to any situation, because Russia is never going to make enough ships and subs to be able to take on everyone... there needs to be a place to escalate to that the other side wont want to continue to get to.

    99% of the time it will be the presence of lots of large Russian ships supported by a carrier that will end most disagreements immediately.

    I did not say they are fucked up....my comment was related to this specific ship and in general they have quite a few in-dock disasters percapita.

    It is about reporting too, most countries have plenty of fuckups in there history... it is the nature of the job.

    .if you want to compare to US then Russian navy simply does not have the scale to compare in statistical relevance especially surface navy. So comparing US accidents to Russian accidents needs normalization.....Plus there is a time to compare yourself to others....

    Let me guess... is that time when it reflects better on the US?

    Normalisation is just statistics bullshit used to bend the truth.

    Like those charts on the Pandemic thread that showed that covid is much more dangerous in Europe and the UK than in India, but only when you do it on a per million people population scale which totally screws up the numbers.

    It does not seem like numbers and real data has any value to you....this ship has spent more time anchored than it is on the sea.

    It is a fucking aircraft carrier... they had a complete change of governmental system, a change from communism to democracy and about three economic collapses all in the 1990s.... they realised the advice and solutions they were getting from the US were making things worse so they kicked censored like Bill Browder out of the country and have spent the best part of the last 20 years rebuilding what they lost and also steaming ahead with new things they never had before like 5th gen stealth fighters and hypersonic scramjet powered missiles... of course it will spend most of its time at anchor... it was the west invading countries and murdering people around the globe...

    When did I say it needs to be scrapped, I clearly said based on Gorshokov work, they have experience in working these ships but does not look like its priority to fix this one.

    The K was in dry dock for upgrades and repairs... they took it out half way through so it could go to Syria and test itself against real world targets... they did that and then sent it back to complete the upgrades and repairs and to make other changes based on their experience in Syria to further improve the design.

    It is not their top priority because it really does not have a lot of ships that could sail around the world with it, but they have spent a lot of money on it and two land based carrier training bases that they have also funded and kept operational...

    Looks like its more of a fetish to bring US into everything, kinda nonsensical but what can you say...whatever rocks his boat and gets his rocks off

    Amusing that those that criticise Russia never criticise America for anything... but that is your fetish.

    The Amusing thing is that much of the criticism and speculation regarding Russia is that they are not enough like America... they are not aggressive and murderous enough for many it seems.

    Russia is not the worlds police like the US pretends to be... the US and the west are not interested in human rights or democracy... they are interested in oil and rare earth mineral rights and lithium deposits... they are not the worlds police, they are a lynch mob that is only interested in crimes against their own interests... otherwise they could care less.

    Which is why Russia needs a strong navy because no only will the west not lift a finger to help them, they will likely actually try to act against them and support any opposition that might appear.

    As the west declines it will become less of a problem of course.

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    Post  gbu48098 Thu May 06, 2021 2:18 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    It is about reporting too,  most countries have plenty of fuckups in there history... it is the nature of the job.
    Is there anything you can't or wont hang on to? First you bring something totally unrelated into context and then now you are blaming that entire world hides their accidents? You can certainly do better....


    Let me guess... is that time when it reflects better on the US?
    Normalisation is just statistics bullshit used to bend the truth.
    Like those charts on the Pandemic thread that showed that covid is much more dangerous in Europe and the UK than in India, but only when you do it on a per million people population scale which totally screws up the numbers.
    What? This is a joke, I will let the readers to judge your aptitude.....whole probability theory is closely tied to this distribution, I guess probability of kill's of missiles does not make sense to you...unless its Russian I guess. No point in going back and forth with someone your level of aptitude with that many posts....accident rate is related to proportionate population size....most statistics concepts are intuitive to one that understands, does not seem like you do

    It is a fucking aircraft carrier... they had a complete change of governmental system, a change from communism to democracy and about three economic collapses all in the 1990s.... they realised the advice and solutions they were getting from the US were making things worse so they kicked censored  like Bill Browder out of the country and have spent the best part of the last 20 years rebuilding what they lost and also steaming ahead with new things they never had before like 5th gen stealth fighters and hypersonic scramjet powered missiles... of course it will spend most of its time at anchor... it was the west invading countries and murdering people around the globe...
    Huh? Again totally unrelated....I clearly said this ship does not seem like a priority. Pointless waste of time....


    The K was in dry dock for upgrades and repairs... they took it out half way through so it could go to Syria and test itself against real world targets... they did that and then sent it back to complete the upgrades and repairs and to make other changes based on their experience in Syria to further improve the design.

    It is not their top priority because it really does not have a lot of ships that could sail around the world with it, but they have spent a lot of money on it and two land based carrier training bases that they have also funded and kept operational...
    This is exactly what I said and there was no reason to bring in the US and act like a pigeon shitting the board....this ship has seen incident after incident at dock and on sea and that is its record.

    Looks like its more of a fetish to bring US into everything, kinda nonsensical but what can you say...whatever rocks his boat and gets his rocks off

    Amusing that those that criticise Russia never criticise America for anything... but that is your fetish.
    [/quote]
    You seem to live in some sort of strange hallucinated world....I blamed west and US from F-35 to high frequency of US navy accidents recently and US Dollar abuse using QE and so on.....I think I know your type now....pretty hopeless....ignore reality and keep mumbling what you want contrary to things occuring. Since its waste of time, I will limit to one to 2 rounds with you.....you do the same thing with LMFS while he backs up his technical arguments, you just keep messing up the board with same mantras
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    Post  GarryB Fri May 07, 2021 11:31 am

    Is there anything you can't or wont hang on to? First you bring something totally unrelated into context and then now you are blaming that entire world hides their accidents? You can certainly do better....

    Incidents in the west do not get the coverage problems in other countries get.

    I guess probability of kill's of missiles does not make sense to you...unless its Russian I guess.

    In Syria the kill probability of western missiles against Syrian targets where the Syrian systems were not working together and was mostly obsolete was pretty much rubbish.

    Attempts to attack Russian bases with all sorts of drones seems to have failed too.

    I would say when it comes to air defence, the Russians are pretty much number one, but denying their ships operating away from Russian territory air capability will limit their capacity for air defence and leave them more vulnerable to surprise attack.

    accident rate is related to proportionate population size....most statistics concepts are intuitive to one that understands, does not seem like you do

    If that is true then India must have lost at least three times more space shuttles than America has because their population is three times bigger... oops... that makes **** all sense to me...

    Countries that have different navies with different numbers of ships and different types of ships and different operating areas and indeed whether they operate in war zones all influences accident rates... especially the level of risk taking that is considered acceptable within the culture of the force...

    Population has nothing to do with anything... as I said... it was a way of manipulating the scale of the charts to create useful optics to use in propaganda... it was a way for Europe to say we are suffering worse than India so we can look after our own and ignore your situation by pretending our situation is as bad as yours.

    Huh? Again totally unrelated....I clearly said this ship does not seem like a priority. Pointless waste of time....

    Totally unrelated?

    If they had no future use for it it would be scrapped. If they had past and present urgent uses for it it would be operational. They don't need it urgently right now, but have plans to expand out into the world over the next decade or two which will make a carrier a very useful platform and the skills of operating a carrier very useful for the Russian Navy.

    As I said... they funded it to keep it working but had no urgent jobs for it to do. During its last upgrade and overhaul and opportunity appeared to test it in real combat in Syria so they took it out of dry dock and into a combat area. Unfortunately for them they had a problem with the recovery cable arrester gear mechanism which led to them losing two aircraft, but they were able to do what they wanted... they used recon to locate targets and plan missions, which they had not been able to do before in a real combat situation, so they probably learned a few useful new things and probably were able to make suggestions for some useful changes to be made during the completion of the repair and upgrade cycle. They had a small fire, which was contained and put out... such fires happen in any Navy, including recently in China and in the US. The floating dock they were repairing the ship in sank... it was an old dock and they needed new ones anyway.

    The fact is that they will put it back into service and they will be able to test the new modifications to the ship, and that will help them in the development of a new CVN to operate with and eventually replace her... she is not going anywhere... big ships are good for 40-50 years...

    This is exactly what I said and there was no reason to bring in the US and act like a pigeon shitting the board....this ship has seen incident after incident at dock and on sea and that is its record.

    A fire during maintenance is nothing and means nothing at all. A sinking dry dock is incompetence of the company maintaining the dry dock and has nothing to do with the carrier at all...

    You seem to live in some sort of strange hallucinated world....I blamed west and US from F-35 to high frequency of US navy accidents recently and US Dollar abuse using QE and so on.....I think I know your type now....pretty hopeless....ignore reality and keep mumbling what you want contrary to things occuring. Since its waste of time, I will limit to one to 2 rounds with you.....you do the same thing with LMFS while he backs up his technical arguments, you just keep messing up the board with same mantras

    When I want your professional opinion I will be sure to ask. Otherwise keep it to yourself.
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Fri May 07, 2021 1:56 pm

    1. They have said that, doesn't mean it's going on the Kuz or when they will do such a thing. Keep in mind Russia has said LOTS of shit that hasn't came true.

    2. Do you know how much runway the 57 needs to take off based on what it's carrying? You don't The kuz doesn't have a long runway and the engines on the 57 aren't all that much more powerful than the 33's.

    3. Yes because of the reason I just named....christ.

    4. SU-57 isn't a 27, apples and oranges, much different aircraft.

    5. No catapults, hanger isn't large enough, you would be super limited in what weapons it could carry etc, there is a whole host of reasons.
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    Post  gbu48098 Fri May 07, 2021 2:50 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Incidents in the west do not get the coverage problems in other countries get.
    What? We are talking about particular ship and you bring in whatever into context....this is about kuznetsov and you are talking conspiracies of west....


    In Syria the kill probability of western missiles against Syrian targets where the Syrian systems were not working together and was mostly obsolete was pretty much rubbish.

    Attempts to attack Russian bases with all sorts of drones seems to have failed too.

    I would say when it comes to air defence, the Russians are pretty much number one, but denying their ships operating away from Russian territory air capability will limit their capacity for air defence and leave them more vulnerable to surprise attack.
    Another disjoint argument, my comments was to your ignorance about statistical concepts and probability to determine kill ratio....syrian assets are taken out everyday almost with 0 israeli losses except for that one f-15 /16 incident. They even killed their own IL-20.


    If that is true then India must have lost at least three times more space shuttles than America has because their population is three times bigger... oops... that makes **** all sense to me...

    Countries that have different navies with different numbers of ships and different types of ships and different operating areas and indeed whether they operate in war zones all influences accident rates... especially the level of risk taking that is considered acceptable within the culture of the force...

    Population has nothing to do with anything... as I said... it was a way of manipulating the scale of the charts to create useful optics to use in propaganda... it was a way for Europe to say we are suffering worse than India so we can look after our own and ignore your situation by pretending our situation is as bad as yours.
    You do not seem to understand, what pop size is in the context of stats....this is elementary....seriously brush up your middle/high school level math



    If they had no future use for it it would be scrapped. If they had past and present urgent uses for it it would be operational. They don't need it urgently right now, but have plans to expand out into the world over the next decade or two which will make a carrier a very useful platform and the skills of operating a carrier very useful for the Russian Navy.
    That is what I said, not a priority and you got riled up and started blaming US or whatnot.....total madness to debate on any issue in this way

    The fact is that they will put it back into service and they will be able to test the new modifications to the ship, and that will help them in the development of a new CVN to operate with and eventually replace her... she is not going anywhere... big ships are good for 40-50 years...
    No need to repeat the same thing I mentioned in first post.....priority.

    A fire during maintenance is nothing and means nothing at all. A sinking dry dock is incompetence of the company maintaining the dry dock and has nothing to do with the carrier at all...
    Fires on ship are considered critical to fatal incidents and take one of the highest priority at docks or on sea aside form armament explosions.....I said incompetence knows no nationality. Please digest before you get riled up. I think it will be more interesting if you leave your extreme bias a bit
    When I want your professional opinion I will be sure to ask. Otherwise keep it to yourself.
    Agreed, that was said to your disjoint and totally tangential comments to very specific ship. Unintentional and intentional bias both leads to misjudgement....perhaps you can moderate it a bit
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    Post  GarryB Fri May 07, 2021 5:03 pm

    2. Do you know how much runway the 57 needs to take off based on what it's carrying? You don't The kuz doesn't have a long runway and the engines on the 57 aren't all that much more powerful than the 33's.

    The Su-57 looks like a bigger wing area and lower drag body, it has more powerful engines in its current form and is about to get even more powerful engines in 2024.
    The Su-57 is smaller and lighter than an Su-33 and has more engine power and with internal weapons much lower drag.

    Kuznetsov has two short and one long takeoff run... the latter is for the Su-28 twin seat trainer aircraft which lacks engine power to get airborne from the shorter take off positions... but as it has no combat role other than allowing takeoff and landing practise on the carrier that is not a huge problem normally.

    4. SU-57 isn't a 27, apples and oranges, much different aircraft.

    Not hugely different actually, both intended for air superiority roles... one old and obsolete and out of production and the other new and capable and entering serial production now.

    5. No catapults, hanger isn't large enough, you would be super limited in what weapons it could carry etc, there is a whole host of reasons.

    It wouldn't need catapults, it is a high thrust to weight ratio sports car, and the missiles it would carry are air to air missiles primarily.

    What? We are talking about particular ship and you bring in whatever into context....this is about kuznetsov and you are talking conspiracies of west....

    It is not the only ship in the world to have had a few problems. Mentioning problems in the west regarding incidents and problems puts things in perspective...

    Another disjoint argument, my comments was to your ignorance about statistical concepts and probability to determine kill ratio....syrian assets are taken out everyday almost with 0 israeli losses except for that one f-15 /16 incident.

    They have the latest and the best in terms of world class 5th gen super fighters and stand off weapons and their results against a third world country with a few Russian systems has been pathetic. Attacking from as far away as they can and exploiting rules the other side has to follow can get you a zero losses record, but it does not bode well for the most potent fighter in the west being too afraid to enter Syrian airspace to attack targets like they say they will to trash S-400 batteries at will.

    They even killed their own IL-20.

    That was the Israelis so afraid of the Syrian air defences that they used Russian aircraft for cover. Pretty sure that if they could take that back now they would...

    You do not seem to understand, what pop size is in the context of stats....this is elementary....seriously brush up your middle/high school level math

    I do understand, they are manipulating the numbers in the graph by changing the criteria from reality to bullshit fairy land...

    Population size is an opportunity to distort figures the way you want them distorted to make one set of figures seem worse or better depending on how you manipulate the units on one of the axis of the chart.

    Make the scale big enough and a tiny ripple in price change can look like a collapse, or a strong surge in performance.

    No need to repeat the same thing I mentioned in first post.....priority.

    The priority is to retain skills and start using her operationally in the Arctic.

    Fires on ship are considered critical to fatal incidents

    Yet they happen world wide on a fairly regular basis. There was a Chinese helicopter carrier that caught fire a while back... like with the K they got it under control... like the K they disabled the fire fighting equipment and systems while doing some welding. The US ship that caught fire in the same circumstances burned for 3-4 days and the fire was not contained and the ship was destroyed... I understand the US has more ships.... in fact you could say she has ships to burn, but where is your criticism of those types of ships being deathtraps, or to question their skills and competency?

    Please digest before you get riled up.

    Wondering why a small fire that is put out on a Russian ship means something and examples of such things happening in other countries are meaningless things I am bringing up to distract or because I am having a temper tantrum.

    Agreed, that was said to your disjoint and totally tangential comments to very specific ship. Unintentional and intentional bias both leads to misjudgement....perhaps you can moderate it a bit


    This thread is about the Russian Navy, the Admiral Kuznetsov is a core part of the Russian Navy and fires on board their ships is also an important factor for them too... they don't have 20 Kuznetsovs so when the one they do have catches fire they can't just get out the marshmellows and watch it burn like the Americans did... they put the fire out... like the Chinese did.

    Bias has nothing to do with anything I have said... they had a fire on the K and it was contained and put out... these are facts. A similar incident recently occurred in the Chinese and US navies. The Chinese put their fire out, but the Americans were overwhelmed and the ship was a total write off... these are facts too.

    The fact that that makes the Americans perhaps look bad is not my fault, I am merely comparing like with like and further proving that the Russians have an interest in retaining fixed wing carrier capability, while suggesting the Chinese know what they are doing with fires to, where perhaps the Americans have too many ships and don't care about them so much... they can always print more money.
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Fri May 07, 2021 5:09 pm

    1. That portion of your argument would really only matter in the ai not during take-off so no. A few hundred-pound difference isn't going to mean much, Smaller by maybe a couple of inches lol, again such a minor difference isn't going to mean anything. You are grasping at straws so hard.

    2. They are vastly different aircraft.....it amazes me you said that.

    3. It would need them, there is no reason to put them on a carrier if it's just for that role at all. That is completely pointless.
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    Post  GarryB Fri May 07, 2021 5:33 pm

    PhSt wrote:
    What is Russia's counterpart to the American Aegis Combat System? I have read a lot of commentary about how Russia excels in anti aircraft/ ballistic missile/ satellite systems, but I saw information about the US Standard Missile 3 which claims to have 1,200 km range and engage targets up to 1,050 km in altitude, when I compared it to Russia's S-400, it only has a maximum range of 400 km and 60 km altitude. And S-400 don't even seem to have a naval version. Am I comparing different systems for different roles? I checked information about Poliment-Redut but its range and altitude are even lower than the S-400.

    Actually from a quote recently posted on another thread:

    On the territory of the former air base in the Deveselu region in Romania, the AN / SPY-1D mobile early warning missile radar and the Aegis Escore ground-based missile defense system are equipped with 24 Standard-3 missiles to intercept operational-tactical missiles with a range of up to 1000 km.

    The Standard 3 is able to intercept ballistic missiles with a range of up to 1,000km which is actually rather pathetic... the old SA-12 could intercept ballistic targets with a range of 2,500km. Which is about 4.5km/s. The S-400 long range missile can intercept 4.8km/s targets... so probably 3,000km range weapons.

    Obviously S-500 with 7km/s target engagement capability... is clearly much better, but not yet in service.


    1. That portion of your argument would really only matter in the ai not during take-off so no. A few hundred-pound difference isn't going to mean much, Smaller by maybe a couple of inches lol, again such a minor difference isn't going to mean anything. You are grasping at straws so hard.

    Dude... you are saying a newer fighter that is smaller and lighter and lower drag with more powerful engines can't operate from a ship that already operates a heavier bigger aircraft with external higher drag weapons with less engine power... if it was the same size with the same engine power and internal weapons it could already take off easily... the Su-57 carries less external weapons than the Su-33 so even with all external weapon points loaded it would still be lower drag than the Su-33 with weapons carried.

    Who is grasping here?

    2. They are vastly different aircraft.....it amazes me you said that.

    The Su-57 is the natural replacement for the Flanker... on land and at sea... or do you think the Russian Navy is going to build their own new 5th gen stealth fighter to replace the Su-33 but only operate on their one aircraft carrier?

    3. It would need them, there is no reason to put them on a carrier if it's just for that role at all. That is completely pointless.

    They are developing catapults so they can operate proper AWACS platforms to replace the Ka-31 AEW helicopter.

    Their fighters don't require assisted takeoffs.
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    Post  gbu48098 Fri May 07, 2021 7:36 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    It is not the only ship in the world to have had a few problems. Mentioning problems in the west regarding incidents and problems puts things in perspective...
    It is the only Russian carrier and it has had nothing but mostly problems whether act of god or incompetence or what not.....we are not discussing other ships or navies or problems. China took one from Ukraine and got it into water and using it while Russians did Gorshokov but they decided not to give this priority. This simply does not seem to affect their naval strategy as one ship without much escort and the issues it has....simply not priority.


    Correct, you can have best in the world and yet unable to use them to protect your ally even when your plane was downed under the guise of tricks. Even most hard core fans would have trouble accepting this inability to show some kinetic nature...so best is nothing if not used. Not the context but you brought this in to argument out of no where....all AD systems work on probability and underlying stat based sciecne models....

    That was the Israelis so afraid of the Syrian air defences that they used Russian aircraft for cover. Pretty sure that if they could take that back now they would...
    They are also called tactics

    I do understand, they are manipulating the numbers in the graph by changing the criteria from reality to bullshit fairy land...

    Population size is an opportunity to distort figures the way you want them distorted to make one set of figures seem worse or better depending on how you manipulate the units on one of the axis of the chart.

    Make the scale big enough and a tiny ripple in price change can look like a collapse, or a strong surge in performance.
    I don't think you are getting, stat concepts are as intutive as they get almost like plane geometry. This is not number tricking or scale tricking, may be when its done by someone that does not understand the concepts


    The priority is to retain skills and start using her operationally in the Arctic.
    So far not much on that side since its last mission

    Yet they happen world wide on a fairly regular basis. There was a Chinese helicopter carrier that caught fire a while back... like with the K they got it under control... like the K they disabled the fire fighting equipment and systems while doing some welding. The US ship that caught fire in the same circumstances burned for 3-4 days and the fire was not contained and the ship was destroyed... I understand the US has more ships.... in fact you could say she has ships to burn, but where is your criticism of those types of ships being deathtraps, or to question their skills and competency?
    Correct, it was to your earlier point, I never claimed accidents don't happen in other navies. Its percapita accident per navy and per ship....this ship stands out


    Wondering why a small fire that is put out on a Russian ship means something and examples of such things happening in other countries are meaningless things I am bringing up to distract or because I am having a temper tantrum.
    They seem to have had disproprotionate incidents under maintenace in general but looks like its getting better recently


    This thread is about the Russian Navy, the Admiral Kuznetsov is a core part of the Russian Navy and fires on board their ships is also an important factor for them too... they don't have 20 Kuznetsovs so when the one they do have catches fire they can't just get out the marshmellows and watch it burn like the Americans did... they put the fire out... like the Chinese did.

    Bias has nothing to do with anything I have said... they had a fire on the K and it was contained and put out... these are facts. A similar incident recently occurred in the Chinese and US navies. The Chinese put their fire out, but the Americans were overwhelmed and the ship was a total write off... these are facts too.

    The fact that that makes the Americans perhaps look bad is not my fault, I am merely comparing like with like and further proving that the Russians have an interest in retaining fixed wing carrier capability, while suggesting the Chinese know what they are doing with fires to, where perhaps the Americans have too many ships and don't care about them so much... they can always print more money.
    Context brother....see the original comment and your comparison
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri May 07, 2021 7:45 pm


    So any chance of getting back to talking about news about Navy here?

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    Post  gbu48098 Fri May 07, 2021 9:52 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    So any chance of getting back to talking about news about Navy here?
    Yes, I am done but Garry may say everything is in context.
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    Post  GarryB Sat May 08, 2021 8:18 am

    It is the only Russian carrier and it has had nothing but mostly problems

    The Kuznetsov was tested in Syria and with that experience it will be an even better carrier than before.

    The fact that the Russian Navy does not regime change countries and murder thousands of people and make billions of people poor does not mean their lack of regime change exploits with their carrier makes it a failure.

    we are not discussing other ships or navies or problems.

    How can we evaluate the Russian Navys status without mentioning other navies?

    .we are not discussing other ships or navies or problems. China took one from Ukraine and got it into water and using it while Russians did Gorshokov but they decided not to give this priority.


    Fucking hilarious.... we are not discussing other SHIPS or NAVIES or PROBLEMS.... China, Ukraine... who was talking about children level education?

    This simply does not seem to affect their naval strategy as one ship without much escort and the issues it has....simply not priority.

    When the K is back in the water and they have taken it out for a short spin to make sure everything works they will have a Kirov class ship recently upgraded they will also want to test... I would expect a visit to Cuba and Venezuela is probably on the cards...

    They have completed a few large support ships, which could also be tested and used.

    They are also called tactics

    The bully shouting abuse from behind his mothers skirt hem at the nerd.... yeah, that is tactics...

    I don't think you are getting, stat concepts are as intutive as they get almost like plane geometry. This is not number tricking or scale tricking, may be when its done by someone that does not understand the concepts

    Obvious solution would be to recreate the graph in real numbers and per million head of population and look at how much it distorts the information given by the graph.

    So far not much on that side since its last mission

    They have one ground based aircraft carrier simulation base and the second will go online next year or so...

    Its percapita accident per navy and per ship....this ship stands out

    No it doesn't.

    They seem to have had disproprotionate incidents under maintenace in general but looks like its getting better recently

    Evidence or just opinion?

    Context brother....see the original comment and your comparison

    Context has nothing to do with it.... three accidents at three shipyards... two fires contained and put out... one ship totally destroyed, but you think the problem is with one of the shipyards that put their fire out before it did much damage.
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    Post  gbu48098 Sat May 08, 2021 2:40 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Fucking hilarious.... we are not discussing other SHIPS or NAVIES or PROBLEMS.... China, Ukraine... who was talking about children level education?
    Yes it is but you are the one that just can't seem to contain an argument to specific frame of context.....anyway reality of kuz is clear. Time to drop this chain for me with you.
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    Post  mnztr Sun May 09, 2021 1:08 am

    Russia to double ships in the mediterranean
    https://avia.pro/news/rossiya-namerena-vdvoe-uvelichit-kolichestvo-boevyh-korabley-i-podvodnyh-lodok-v-sredizemnom?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fpulse.mail.ru&utm_source=MRG_Pulse

    GarryB likes this post


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