crod wrote:Well that places Iran in a tight spot...words and bluster alone will tell everyone that you can kill such high value targets knowing Iran will not take any action.
Interesting start to the year.
This is an open declaration of war on Iran... the question is what will be Iran response after this
Unprovoked attack on its top military senior? My bet is there will be many in the iran military
that will demand a very devastating response to US military ,from targeting US base in Syria ,or IRAQ
to even sink an american warship or a aircraft carrier..
To better understand how close is US to provoke a war.. with IRAN , just yesterday saw a video
of about a dozen of Iranian torpedo boats in formation following very closely a US aircraft carrier
with what looked to be like 15km to 20km distance.. more or less.
This like very dangerous
developments.. because now Iran is chasing US warships at kill distance and it will be impossible for the aircraft
carrier to survive an attack with a dozen of torpedo boats so close.. if IRAN choose to sink an American warship , when it pass through the closest zones in the hormus strait.. they can easily do it.. 15 km is not enough distance to maneuver an aircraft carrier and a full scale attack of combined airforce and torpedo boats..
This is a conflict that US and Trump specifically will be the biggest loser of all.. and i will explain why...
Iranians reasoning will be clouded now by their hate for US actions.. and this is means
that they can behave like a bull of a crystal shop.. there is so many targets to hit for Iran in thezone..
and Americans have so many bases... this are the reasons... that no matter who pushing more the other..
even if American nuke Iran 10x times.. in 10x cities.. this will NOT take an inch of iranian territory.. they will not surrender.. Iran is a big nation.. is not Syria.. is 2 times IRAQ size.. and contrary to IRAQ ,that had no support from any nation.. Iran have Russian supersonic antiship missiles and chinese too.. it will also receive infinite logistics and real time positions of american troops.. so if iran sink just 1 aircraft carrier.. this will automatically
make US and Trump the biggest loser ... because is not who punish more ,who wins.. but which nation image
will be worse after the conflict ends... ????? and losing an aircraft carrier ,over a conflict US provoked..
and started because attacked iran first.. will be seen as a major embarrassment.. far more than the destruction
of iranian nuclear reactor.. and if US use nukes ,it will justify iran to get them too.. so this will not end well
in a long term.. trump will need the help of putin to negotiate with iran so they stop fighting them ,,a war US they started..
iran can also close the hormus strait.. very easily with thousands of mines.. and this will send oil prices to heaven.. $200 -$300 ... and US dollar will go down... Iran can bomb to hell Saudi Arabia oil fields. you saw how easily Iran target with a drone those fields.. this will mean a major crisis world wide.. and americans will be seen
as the author of this conflict.. as the provocators.. americans dropping nukes on iran.. will not be seen as a
"victory". so US will try to hit iranian nuclear reactors.. something that they can do , to get something from the conflict.. that they could use as a victory.. but thing is that iran can undefintely close the hormus.. and if they
have as many missiles they claim they can cause a lot of damage in US navies in the zone because iran will have a crystal clear knowledge of every movement of US navy and airforce.. and military bases.. this will provoke also an invasion on iraq.. to kick american forces there... this is a long term war that US can't win...with just airstrikes.. whether using nukes or tomahawks.. they will have to kill millions of civilians in iran ,which will destroy US image in the world.. so is a lose /lose for Trump.. declaring war on iran.. is a war US and Israel can start.. but can they end it? Iran is not the tiny island of japan.. and they will sacrifice every citizen ,before any
That said ..because the attack was done on IRAQ + IRAN military , they united can kick american small forces 12,000 forces from iraq.. and syria... and Trump will need a ground invasion on iraq and iran at same time ,at least twice as big as bush jr. invasion on iraq . and this will only sink US economy...
So my prediction is regardless if Trump use nukes or not.. he will soon realize he made a huge mistake
because he will see ,he can't end the war .. don't have the money to send a massive ground invasion...
will not have the support of europe or nato.. because they started the war on iran.. not the other way..
and because germany and france interest where attacked by US ,in IRAN.. so most of europe will do nothing..
and Russia and China can easily supply iran endlessly with real time intelligence ,missiles ,so it will be like
a fight of a lion (USA) vs a thousands of bees (IRAN).. who will win ?
If Iranians have a plan of no retreat no matter the casualties ,they can effectively kick american troops from iraq and syria.. and US will have no way to declare a real victory in a war with iran , just using airforce and submarines ,without invading teheran and planting a the american flag there..
I really thing there is a very high chance probability , iran will retaliate and they will target US military in iraq and passing in persian gulf... and they will be unable to stop iran attacks.. ,because iran will become an unsinkable
aircraft carrier.. and any war with iran will cost a lot of money to US economy , and the worse part of it.. is that will not stop IRan from targeting them... Iran and Iraq will force US troops them to retreat abandon their bases.. from the range of their missiles... from IRaq and Syria and positions bombed in saudi arabia too.. and afganistan..
already US military + what is now today as NATO.. tried to win a war in a country that Russia and China
was aiding the other side.. and this is what was the end result..
entire battalions of US and allies were encircled by china and crushed... and a couple of dozen
of russian pilots leading and training the chinese airforce ,wiped the us airforce over north korea..
as a bonus russians will be helping iran to intercept american ballistic missiles , so a tremendous experience
that russian will get in intercepting a major war like scenario of us warships attacking iran.. the biggest losser
in any war between US and IRAN will be the west.. because Russia and china can help iran grind american troops
and american airforce as they did in the korean war.. so in a war between us and iran.. is not who kills more people who win.. but who stay..and who leaves? and americans forces will be pressure by american people to leave iran ,iraq and syria... iran can't go anywhere is their place... so in medium term ,us forces will have to leave the middle east to avoid their bases and warships being targeted.. iran can also target US warships in the red sea.. thanks to their position in Yemen.. so definitively.. a fight against Iran in the zone .is like fighting
a thousand of bees.. there is too many and they are in their place. while you are only the intruder in their zone..so eventually you leave. without a full scale ground invasion , bigger size of iraq war.. it will be impossible to stop Iran capabilities to fight and hit US positions in middle east.. Iran even if got more punished ,can claim
victory if Force American troops to leave syria and iraq.. and sink a couple of warships of them..