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    Russian Civil Aviation: News #3

    Backman
    Backman

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    Post  Backman Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:22 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    It will require a new pylon and nacelle, and additional tests to certify the aircraft with the new engines, but that is absolutely not an insurmountable problem.

    Would Russia's capacity to build the engines be the problem?

    It wouldn't be if China needed engines. Its just a matter of money and China has that.

    China should have been going for the PD14 right from the start with the 919. This is what pisses me off about China. If they are really going to attack Boeing and Airbus, they have to do it together.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:27 pm

    China is no real ally of Russia, it is just an opportunist. In many ways it is better than the yanqui dominated west, but it ain't no
    angel.

    I think that the current "love affair" with Russia is a ploy to find a new accommodation with the west. China is fighting to assert
    itself. Once it reaches a new deal with the west it will turn on Russia as part of their camp.

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    Backman
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    Post  Backman Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:30 pm

    LMFS wrote:It may eventually come to the point where US wants to stick it to China and the C919 is left without engines and essentially killed. So either they buy the MC21, or they co-produce it or they modify the Comac to operate with the PD-14, maybe a mix of the three options. In any case the C919 is in an extremely vulnerable position and the West hardly ever misses such opportunities.

    They were going to cut them off the CFM engine already. But some US think tank said that the 919 was such a joke that they wouldn't bother. This is the article about it

    China’s C919 commercial jet aspirations are overblown and no threat to Boeing or Airbus, Washington think tank finds

    Amanda Lee
    Wed., December 9, 2020, 1:23 a.m. PST·4 min read

    Beijing’s plan to make its own commercial aircraft to break up the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus remains a costly pipe dream, according to a Washington-based think tank.

    While Beijing has pumped at least US$45 billion into the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) to make commercial planes, including the C919 passenger jet, the odds that China can make the project a success “are between slim and none”, said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies who is responsible for the research.


    [Comac is] a true dumpster fire of an organisation On China’s commercial aviation industry, Kennedy said: “I’ve examined a lot of industries in China, and this is definitely the most pathetic sector I’ve ever encountered.” lol1 What an ass

    Sanctions on Comac would be “counterproductive” because China could retaliate by not buying from US companies such as Boeing, while speeding up self-reliance and moving away from the current aerospace technology hierarchy led by the US and Europe, Kennedy added.


    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-c919-commercial-jet-aspirations-092347214.html



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    Rodion_Romanovic
    Rodion_Romanovic

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:40 pm

    They (Russia and China) do not need to be best friends.
    What Russia needs is reliable commercial partners.
    If China is interested in alternative to western engines for its airliner Russia can provide them.

    If they get a good product at an agreed price without strings attached I do not see why they should backstabbing Russia.


    As far as the production capacity. I imagine that if there are orders they can ramp up the production (including all the supply chain) and even enlarge their facilities or build new ones.

    As said, they will need new pylons and a new nacelle, and possibly to modify the mounts. There are manufacturing lead times once the design is finished, and we are talking of several months if not more than one year. Furthermore, after the first engine for the flight test is ready, they will need to redo a part of the flight test campaign (a sort of reduced version of what the MC21 is going to do now).

    Thus, even if they signed a contract today, they will not need an increase in production rate for at least 3 years.
    If there is money, this time is sufficient to do it.

    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:44 pm

    kvs wrote:China is no real ally of Russia, it is just an opportunist. In many ways it is better than the yanqui dominated west, but it ain't no
    angel.

    I think that the current "love affair" with Russia is a ploy to find a new accommodation with the west. China is fighting to assert
    itself. Once it reaches a new deal with the west it will turn on Russia as part of their camp.


    Correct

    Fortunately any new deal that US would offer would be neatly packaged sodomy so Chinese will be waiting for a long time for acceptable one



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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:41 pm

    China has warmed up to Russia long before the charade going on now. When Democrats where sucking off China, China still backed Russia and was opening up all types of new trade and what not.

    It's just that you can't get rid of the typical opportunist. China will of course try to stifle Russia in new deals. That is how they play the game with everyone.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:46 am

    Funny how people project... it seems they think everyone does it the way the west does... the west will be backing China so China will use it as an opportunity to backstab Russia... when the reality is that the West will be using better relations with China to try to curb better relations between Russia and China to prevent Russia and China from becoming more independent of the West.

    Their obvious problem is that the US has already cut most cuttable ties to Russia and has no ties left to cut, and Russia is still developing and growing, so their new plan is to look at the countries Russia is turning to like Asia in general and China in particular and see if they can cosy up to them and force them to cut ties with Russia... hell they did it before... why not do it again...

    But China is not stupid... they understand they are being manipulated, but they will use the situation to stimulate their own growth and development... if the US wants to suck up to China they will have to quit actions against Huawei for instance which will burn the US because the US relies on the western countries around the world using US approved hardware because that makes backdoors and spying easier for them... with Chinese hardware they will have to work for a living and might not be able to access information in a timely manner.

    The irony is that Kissenger was suggesting the opposite... seeing Russia as being more western and more open to being pro western than China and that the reverse of the cold war policy of using China against the Soviet Union should be the policy of the US now... essentially using Russia against a growing China...

    And I would think I agree with the idea, but it will never work... to many burned bridges...

    China is more likely to dominate the world than Russia ever was, but I don't mean dominate like the west tries.

    Look at Firefly... the bad corrupt government are british colonials, while the average people are generally white but speak a mix of english and chinese and sound like Americans... on the frontiers of space... farming and trying to make a living in lawless regions where companies are the primary threat to ending breathing rights.
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    Daniel_Admassu

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    Post  Daniel_Admassu Wed Dec 16, 2020 6:58 am

    For the moment I think Russia is relying on its own domestic airliner market to keep aviation projects like the MS-21 afloat. But I don't think it's own market alone can justify maintaining a production line unlike military aviation. If anyone is well placed to take on the Boeing-Airbus duopoly, it is Russia due to its technological parity, industrial base and price advantage.
    What Russia needs to be doing in my opinion is approach the developing world with its products and just not the bigger ones but all sorts of them. I think the political and geostrategic conditions are becoming right for these countries to be comfortable enough to look for alternatives in partnership. China hasn't achieved its huge clout in Africa and Asia out of thin air. It has invested huge finances and effort. But the Chinese aviation industry is nowhere ready to be able to sell them their aircraft.
    Take my nation, Ethiopia, for instance. It is a poor country without any significant purchasing power but by some sheer historical coincidences operates Africa's largest and most successful airline. It has been a loyal customer for Boeing but has recently been buying from Airbus as well. Anyone remembers how the current 737 max crisis began? First it crashed in Indonesia and Boeing and and the US hushed it up and went on building the flawed machine until one fateful morning an Ethiopian 737 max went into a dive. You know what Boeing tried to do? Blame the pilot training after decades of praising the airline for its world class academy and crew skills. They even authored one or two hit pieces in newspapers to that effect. They are such low scums.
    The only thing that holds back a new competitor in the narrow body airliner market now is the issue of service network and sparepart availability. Russia needs to make some real effort and investment at least with a select customer and prove to the market that it can deliver. It might not get huge dividends at first. But that is how you create markets. If China had its own mature aviation products the developing world would have been swarming with them right now. And if Russia won't act now, that's what is going to happen in a decade or so.

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    George1
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    Post  George1 Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:59 pm

    According to the press service of the state corporation "Rostec" on December 16, 2020 at the airfield in Zhukovsky, a new passenger regional turboprop aircraft Il-114-300 made its first flight.

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    Maximmmm
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    Post  Maximmmm Wed Dec 16, 2020 2:04 pm

    Lots of good news at the end of the year!

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    dino00
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    Post  dino00 Wed Dec 16, 2020 3:24 pm

    MC-21 next year will receive a completely domestic composite wing - First Deputy Chairman of the Military Industrial Complex Board

    Separate wing elements using entirely domestic composites have been manufactured and are being tested. We hope that next year a composite wing of a completely domestic production will go to the MC-21 aircraft. Thus, we will completely exclude dependence on foreign suppliers," Yelchaninov said.

    https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=543338&lang=RU

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Wed Dec 16, 2020 3:39 pm

    Full report:

    Il-114-300 completed its first flight
    Published by 16.12.2020, 15:57 | 214

    Following the MS-21-310 with the Russian PD-14 engines, which rose into the sky the day before in Irkutsk, on December 16, 2020 at the airfield of the Flight Research Institute. Gromov, a new regional passenger turboprop aircraft Il-114-300, tail number 54114, made its first flight in Zhukovsky.

    The aircraft was piloted by a crew consisting of Chief Pilot of PJSC "Il", 1st class test pilot, Hero of Russia Nikolai Kuimov and 1st class test pilot Dmitry Komarov, 1st class onboard test engineer Oleg Gryazev. The flight task involved checking the operating modes of the power plant, the stability and controllability of the aircraft, as well as the functioning of its systems.

    “The end of the year is rich in aviation premieres. As you know, yesterday the MC-21-310 medium-range liner with PD-14 engines took off for the first time. Today the Il-114-300 turboprop took off for the first time - another aircraft in the passenger line, which our aircraft manufacturers will offer to carriers in the near future. The new aircraft is especially relevant for our country: it is not picky about the level of airfield equipment, it is adapted to operate in the harsh conditions of the North, Siberia, the Far East, and due to the optimal cabin capacity it can become the basic vehicle for the development of regional transportation. In 2022, UAC plans to complete the certification of the Il-114-300, and from 2023 - to begin serial deliveries, ”said Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Rostec State Corporation.

    “In total, the program plans to manufacture and sell up to 100 aircraft of the Il-114-300 type for the period up to 2030 for delivery to civil aviation, government customers, and for export. With the receipt of the type certificate in 2022, the first production aircraft will be prepared for delivery, ”commented the head of the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.

    Earlier, at the end of November, photographs appeared on the Web where the Il-114-300 was taxiing and jogging along the runway with a separation of both the nose landing gear and with an approach of several centimeters above the runway.

    “The first flight of the Il-114-300 is the result of the colossal work of tens of thousands of people - scientists, engineers, specialists - working in the design bureau and at the plants of the United Aircraft Corporation, at the enterprises of our suppliers and partners. The emergence of a new regional turboprop aircraft opens up new prospects for the Russian civil aircraft industry, ”said Yuri Slyusar, General Director of the United Aircraft Building Corporation.

    The IL-114-300 propulsion system is represented by two TV7-117ST-01 engines with a takeoff power of up to 3100 hp. each. The power plant together with the engines includes a new high-thrust AV-112-114 propeller and a new automatic control system using a combined modernized engine control unit and a BARK-65SM propeller. This joint control allows you to maximize the potential of the characteristics of the engine and propeller, and generally increase the efficiency of the power plant.

    Il-114-300 is the most anticipated passenger aircraft in Russia. Especially small regional airlines that operate the An-24/26 aircraft count on him. This hard worker, who took to the skies in 1959 (!!!), has no replacement yet - due to the lack of a domestic aircraft of this class, airlines have to buy turbojet airliners of Canadian and French production.

    With the start of flight tests of the Il-114-300, the prospects for its commercial operation are getting closer. The media have more than once reported that Polar Airlines are waiting for him in Yakutia, KrasAvia in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, and in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, and Cherepovets, they will not give up on it, wherever an economical and unpretentious plane is needed ... There are also plans in the Russian Ministry of Defense to replace the Il-38 Novella anti-submarine aircraft with an Il-114-300 in the appropriate configuration.

    The difficult and difficult year 2020 ends. We can only congratulate our aircraft and engine builders on the two most significant events of the outgoing year and thank them for their hard work and great news!

    https://aviation21.ru/il-114-300-vypolnil-pervyj-polyot/

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    Backman
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    Post  Backman Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:38 pm

    China has a superiority complex when it comes to Russia. I've seen this in the English language Chinese media , on Twitter and even on this forum. I've heard Chinese media ppl like Eric X Li say it. They believe the same propaganda garbage about the Russian economy that the Americans do. For example Russia's GDP being the same as Texas (in reality , on a PPP basis ., Russia's GDP is bigger than Texas and California combined. Russia consumes more oil than Texas and Cali combined)

    In China's eyes , Russia is a has-been power. They would rather be humiliated by a superpower than meet Russia as equals in a prestigious field like aviation. This is why China does as much as it possibly can by itself and only reluctantly deals with Russia. We see this attitude with Iran also. And to a lesser extent India.

    Ah. But the Comac/United 929. I really want to be proven wrong. But it wouldn't surprise me if China is doing this for the know-how. And they will keep taking more control of the program until there's nothing left in it for Russia.

    This attitude doesn't bode well for the aviation industry in Russia. But Russia will support its aviation industry through thick and thin. And eventually an opportunity will come up that they can flourish in. The cold war between the US and China it's already close to escalating to that point.



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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:04 pm

    Just love the sound that turboprops make.

    The Il-114-300 production forecast to 2030 averages one a month.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:57 pm

    Chinese arrogance is notorious. They also look down on the west but like the Japanese respect it because of its apparent singular
    power. They want to ascend to such global influence and are jockeying for a spot with the "mighty" west.

    As for Russia's GDP. It is much greater than Texas and California combined. That comparison should tell you, no offense intended,
    what an absurd estimate there is of Russia's nominal and PPP adjusted GDP. The PPP adjustment is based on the civilian sector of
    the economy and not even all of the civilian sector. It is a fancy version of the Big Mac index where consumer prices are compared
    for similar products. The problem is that most civilian products in Russia have prices similar to those in the west. This applies
    to all electronics goods. Food is cheaper but not by a large factor. This pseudo-analysis gives a PPP factor between 2 and 2.5.
    Clearly this factor totally fails to account for Russia's MIC.

    The current PPP also fails to account for large civilian activity such as infrastructure. Russia does not spend $6 billion to upgrade
    some airport. It can build a new one from scratch for much less. The cost of the Kerch Strait bridge would be way more than a
    factor of 2 higher if built in the west. I have posted a cost comparison of the Paris metro expansion and that of an actually greater size
    in Moscow (which is already built) in another part of this board. A real evaluation of Russia's PPP index would put it over 5 and
    it is still missing critical qualitative differences. Texas + California is not a viable country and its raw GDP size hardly has the
    diversity and sustainability of Russia's (and America's) GDP. The GDP scales with the population for obvious reasons assuming a
    developed economy. So one would expect Russia to have half the GDP due to having half the population. But the US GDP also
    reflects its global footprint via transnational corporate activity. Russia does not have such a footprint so its GDP will be smaller.
    However, these differences are not important for its capability.


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    calripson

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    Post  calripson Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:10 pm

    kvs wrote:Chinese arrogance is notorious.   They also look down on the west but like the Japanese respect it because of its apparent singular
    power.   They want to ascend to such global influence and are jockeying for a spot with the "mighty" west.

    As for Russia's GDP.   It is much greater than Texas and California combined.   That comparison should tell you, no offense intended,
    what an absurd estimate there is of Russia's nominal and PPP adjusted GDP.    The PPP adjustment is based on the civilian sector of
    the economy and not even all of the civilian sector.   It is a fancy version of the Big Mac index where consumer prices are compared
    for similar products.   The problem is that most civilian products in Russia have prices similar to those in the west.   This applies
    to all electronics goods.   Food is cheaper but not by a large factor.   This pseudo-analysis gives a PPP factor between 2 and 2.5.
    Clearly this factor totally fails to account for Russia's MIC.  

    The current PPP also fails to account for large civilian activity such as infrastructure.   Russia does not spend $6 billion to upgrade
    some airport.  It can build a new one from scratch for much less.   The cost of the Kerch Strait bridge would be way more than a
    factor of 2 higher if built in the west.   I have posted a cost comparison of the Paris metro expansion and that of an actually greater size
    in Moscow (which is already built) in another part of this board.   A real evaluation of Russia's PPP index would put it over 5 and
    it is still missing critical qualitative differences.   Texas + California is not a viable country and its raw GDP size hardly has the
    diversity and sustainability of Russia's (and America's) GDP.    The GDP scales with the population for obvious reasons assuming a
    developed economy.   So one would expect Russia to have half the GDP due to having half the population.  But the US GDP also
    reflects its global footprint via transnational corporate activity.   Russia does not have such a footprint so its GDP will be smaller.
    However, these differences are not important for its capability.

    All those points are valid. American GDP also incorporates the fact that there is a huge service economy for tasks that people do themselves in Russia. In America, wealthy suburbanites pay someone to pick up their dog's poop, change a light bulb, ect. A more accurate analysis would focus on the productive capacity of the physical economy.


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