Syrian War: News #19

starman wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:
Bernie Sanders ain't getting the nom. I think Joe Biden will.

That seems most likely. But what policy would Joe pursue with regard to Syria?

Joe Biden has same policy as Obama, war. Obama armed FSA with thousands of TOW missiles and caused quite a bit of trouble. Definitely way more trouble than Trump.

starman wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:
Bernie Sanders ain't getting the nom. I think Joe Biden will.

That seems most likely. But what policy would Joe pursue with regard to Syria?

Pretty much the same as always don't expect anything different

ultimatewarrior wrote:
Joe Biden has same policy as Obama, war. Obama armed FSA with thousands of TOW missiles and caused quite a bit of trouble. Definitely way more trouble than Trump.

But that was back when the rebels seemed to have a fair chance of eliminating Assad. Now it's too late for that.

starman wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:
Joe Biden has same policy as Obama, war. Obama armed FSA with thousands of TOW missiles and caused quite a bit of trouble. Definitely way more trouble than Trump.

But that was back when the rebels seemed to have a fair chance of eliminating Assad. Now it's too late for that.

They don't care about chance or not. They want to kill Russians. That's why they supplied TOW. That's what neocons do. Kill Russians.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Because without it Syria has no income, they don't produce enough rare metals, they don't produce anything anyone wants.

Any oil is good oil, the more you control the better off you are.

Anything they sell you can get anywhere.

https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/syr/


In 2010, the European Union as a whole spent $4.1 billion on Syrian oil imports and there is more oil there then 2.5B Barrels

it's like this they went from like 5B Plus in exports from 2010 to under 700M in 2019 which is pathetic.

By taking their oil we have destroyed them, I wonder how long Russia will carry Syria on it's back.

They are importing MUCH more then they are exporting you don't have to be an economist to know the bad things this will lead to.

Dude. Russia and Iran have like thousands of times as much as oil as Syria had before the war. Like literally. Russia and Iran swim in oil. Syria oil is very small by comparison.

More and more Kornet missiles are being used by rebels in Hama. Methinks these are not from Russia but reverse engineered illegal copies from Turkey. Russia should have never sold Kornet to Turkey in the first place.

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/c3hjbe/nfl_destroyed_a_van_carrying_saa_soldiers_with_a/

Nope, those are Kornet and poor SAA getting wrecked in Idlib right now.

At this point, unless the Turks drop support for the Idlib Rebels, the SAA has lost.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Nope, those are Kornet and poor SAA getting wrecked in Idlib right now.

At this point, unless the Turks drop support for the Idlib Rebels, the SAA has lost.

What the heck are you talking about?

Aleppo, Palmyra, DEZ - all these 'strongpoints' of Islamist resistance were systematically dismantled by the SAA with RuAF and Iranian support. Turkish support didn't make a difference.

Only reason that Idlib is still standing is because Russia has made a deal with Turkey, and is not giving the go-ahead to the SAA. The SAA itself has not launched any offensive to retake it. It's just skirmishes on the outskirts.

Turkey has promised that it won't stay. It has nothing to gain by keeping that den on it's border in the long run, now that Assad is not going anywhere and Turkey's disagreements with NATO are multiplying.

So when Turkey leaves, Russia and the SAA will move in - no earlier.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Nope, those are Kornet and poor SAA getting wrecked in Idlib right now.

At this point, unless the Turks drop support for the Idlib Rebels, the SAA has lost.

Dude. SAA has like 10 times the population as Idlib. Not to mention SAA has thousands of ATGM. Rebel ATGM isn't enough to march them into Damascus. Especially now that Russia is in Syria and ain't leaving anytime soon.

flamming_python wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Nope, those are Kornet and poor SAA getting wrecked in Idlib right now.

At this point, unless the Turks drop support for the Idlib Rebels, the SAA has lost.

What the heck are you talking about?

Aleppo, Palmyra, DEZ - all these 'strongpoints' of Islamist resistance were systematically dismantled by the SAA with RuAF and Iranian support. Turkish support didn't make a difference.

Only reason that Idlib is still standing is because Russia has made a deal with Turkey, and is not giving the go-ahead to the SAA. The SAA itself has not launched any offensive to retake it. It's just skirmishes on the outskirts.

Turkey has promised that it won't stay. It has nothing to gain by keeping that den on it's border in the long run, now that Assad is not going anywhere and Turkey's disagreements with NATO are multiplying.

So when Turkey leaves, Russia and the SAA will move in - no earlier.

Palmyra and Dez didn't share a border with the Turks so are you joking me? Ero also never cared about Aleppo. .

Please don't come to me comparing Der and Palmyra to Idlib thats a joke right there. Turk never dug it's foot into the ground over those areas, it never cared about losing them that was more the Saudi's who cared and us kinda.

Oh really he made a deal, where is the record of this "deal" and if you show me some video of him at a diplomatic meeting saying that please, You have to be very gullible to take the guy at his word.

The Turks aren't leaving Idlib, you can keep up with that fantasy.

ultimatewarrior wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Nope, those are Kornet and poor SAA getting wrecked in Idlib right now.

At this point, unless the Turks drop support for the Idlib Rebels, the SAA has lost.

Dude. SAA has like 10 times the population as Idlib. Not to mention SAA has thousands of ATGM. Rebel ATGM isn't enough to march them into Damascus. Especially now that Russia is in Syria and ain't leaving anytime soon.

First off 10x the population assuming that's true, no one knows for sure just how many people are left in Syria.

Doesn't mean 10x You need to separate the of age males who can fight from that.

So tell me genius do you have those numbers? cause I know you don't.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Nope, those are Kornet and poor SAA getting wrecked in Idlib right now.

At this point, unless the Turks drop support for the Idlib Rebels, the SAA has lost.

Dude. SAA has like 10 times the population as Idlib. Not to mention SAA has thousands of ATGM. Rebel ATGM isn't enough to march them into Damascus. Especially now that Russia is in Syria and ain't leaving anytime soon.

First off 10x the population assuming that's true, no one knows for sure just how many people are left in Syria.

Doesn't mean 10x You need to separate the of age males who can fight from that.

So tell me genius do you have those numbers? cause I know you don't.

Damascus area has fertile soil. Damascus area alone has like 2 million people. Idlib used to be 1 million people before the war but now without modern infrastructure can't imagine more than 100,000 people in Idlib.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Nope, those are Kornet and poor SAA getting wrecked in Idlib right now.

At this point, unless the Turks drop support for the Idlib Rebels, the SAA has lost.

What the heck are you talking about?

Aleppo, Palmyra, DEZ - all these 'strongpoints' of Islamist resistance were systematically dismantled by the SAA with RuAF and Iranian support. Turkish support didn't make a difference.

Only reason that Idlib is still standing is because Russia has made a deal with Turkey, and is not giving the go-ahead to the SAA. The SAA itself has not launched any offensive to retake it. It's just skirmishes on the outskirts.

Turkey has promised that it won't stay. It has nothing to gain by keeping that den on it's border in the long run, now that Assad is not going anywhere and Turkey's disagreements with NATO are multiplying.

So when Turkey leaves, Russia and the SAA will move in - no earlier.

Palmyra and Dez didn't share a border with the Turks so are you joking me? Ero also never cared about Aleppo. .

Please don't come to me comparing Der and Palmyra to Idlib thats a joke right there. Turk never dug it's foot into the ground over those areas, it never cared about losing them that was more the Saudi's who cared and us kinda.

Oh really he made a deal, where is the record of this "deal" and if you show me some video of him at a diplomatic meeting saying that please, You have to be very gullible to take the guy at his word.

The Turks aren't leaving Idlib, you can keep up with that fantasy.

Never say never. Erdogan won't be around forever. Let's see what happens to Erdogan when ATGM blow up Turkish tanks left and right. Not even Americans can hold their ground in Iraq. Turkey ain't as strong as America.

ultimatewarrior wrote:
Never say never. Erdogan won't be around forever.  Not even Americans can hold their ground in Iraq. Turkey ain't as strong as America.

I explained that to him.. but in the Somalian army he works.. Intelligence is not part
of their training. .  All the war of  Erdogan against Syria ,those 9 years of financing
rebels terrorist ,can be totally reversed. by a change of power in Turkey , in a matter of days ,with a pen and a paper , of a new President.  The previous election the Opposition to ERdogan one of his major policies ,something he promoted was totally restoring relations
with Assad.. he told Turkey being in Syria is a big mistake and he promoted to change all that and restore in full relations with Assad. Which will have been a death sentence to the head choppers in IDLIB..  

So all this miss-adventures of NATO and Israel in Syria will go down the toilet when that happens. Because without IDLIB the war will be officially lost..  The kurds zones will be recovered with Russia help with Dialogue with the kurds.. with an autonomy ..and Syria taking back control of all its borders with Turkey.. Because Americans will not have
any other motive to remain in Syria ,when There are no more terror positions to capture..
Russia can influence the kurds .. it will be not a problem to get a deal for both to work together.. Kurds already nearly make a deal with Assad ,when Trump was saying wanted to leave.. and even tried hard to do it.. but his generals resisted to that.. but  4 more years of Trump , he could also put the final nail in the Syrian war.. but if Tulsi Gabbard or Bernie wins the elections ,they can do the same thing..  If Tulsi wins ... i can see US forces helping Syrian army recover IDLIB. .. In short time is against Alqaeda and ISIS and all their NATO Sympathizers .  

For now All Russia wants is little by little , at a slow rate continue taking territory away of
terrorist and grind them with bombs.. to push the rebels positions farther from Lattakia..
ERdogan is 65 years old.. he will not be until 70s in politics..  In less than 5 years mark my words.. IDLIB will be free from Alqaeda and their NATO sponsors.. Whether Russia and syria will take it little by little by force , at a slower pace.. or by a change of politics in TUrkey , that opposition wins.. then is game over for the anglozionist powers plans , for breaking Syria in parts..  

So the possibilities for Syria to recover all its territory ..100% of it.. including Kurds zones are quite high.. in 5 to 10 years Long term.. with Russia diplomatic and military skills.. or using a bit of both.. Diplomacy + bombs .  

Overall Putin will go to history books , like an example of the art of diplomacy and how it can reverse impossible to win wars, and make it totally possible.. If anyone told me in 2015 ,when Russia joined Syria.. That Russia Airforce with Putin diplomacy, will liberate Aleppo and most of Syria in just 4 years . without provoking a war with Israel and Turkey.. or US ,
i will have not believe it ..   But it happened.. so is very outstanding what Russia have achieved until now.. For first time.. Russia is in a muchhhh better position to impose its will.. to the point that Russia can secure a complete total victory under any scenario with Turkey .. if Putin really want it..   The only obstacles until know are US and Turkey..
But in US , that war is already under pressure Washington to end it... is the major topic of discussion , nobody knows speak about restarting the war. not even republicans.  Their only policy now is to remain in Syria forever to annoy Russia as much as possible.

However i still believe the Syrian war could have been totally avoided.. had Putin understood , clearly that any nation they make an alliance will be a target to hit by NATO and Israel.  Russia should have better make alliance with nations that are worth of it.. that can give something important to Russia.. like an strategic position for example..
Mexico ,Egypt and or Venezuela ,will have been far far better for Russia to defend.. with their military and risk everything.. Russia needs a permanent major base close to US ,  that can allow Russian airforce to patrol every day US eastern coast.. Venezuela is big ,and good territory to hold and defend..  not like Syria.. that is surrounded by enemies most borders.
and Syria have nothing to offer Russia , and only drags Russia economy down.. for nothing.. is a real bad policy that Russia made alliance with them..

Isos wrote:Clear message of Russia to Turkey : "leave quickly".


ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
1h
#BREAKING: Syrian Army artillery shells reportedly hit Turkish military position in southern Idlib, at least 4 soldiers reportedly wounded, 3 Turkish military helicopters have entered Idlib airspace and are preparing to evacuate the wounded personnel

Russia will take IDLIB mark my words..
it will be done little by little , at a very slow pace ,to not provoke a full scale war with Turkey
or Americans.. they will not allow Alqaeda or any other terrorist group to feel great in IDLIB ,
Russia can make their lives very miserable.. to them..

1)Bombing with impunity the electrical power grid of IDLIB... it will destroy any possibility
to have a working economy there..
2)bombing any communications or radar stations ,tanks or fortifications of them.. and storage munitions depot..
3)And keeping them every day living under bombs.. who will want to live in a city ,that is bombed everyday by a powerful  airforce? What kind future Erdogan Believe IDLIB will have
with Russia bombing it with impunity every day ?

Only way Turkey can secure and hold IDLIB is a full scale invasion of TUrkey army on Syria to push Syrian army farther away and to target again Russian airforce and bomb Russian base... But that will be a defacto declaration of war on Russia..  Erdogan if he goes full retard mode  ,and wants to secure IDLIB ,he can over run for sure the Russian base with 50k turkey soldiers backed by Turkey airforce and artillery and hundreds of tanks, since Russia only have there only  2,000 soldiers .  But this will be a dead sentence to Turkey military ,because Russia can do a tactical retreat ,to Lebanon if need with his army.. while
RUssian airforce will destroy completely Turkey navy from the black sea.. turkey will be hopeless ,to stop Russian bombs landing on turkey cities.. , and send Turkey economy to the stone age with its impressive assets in the black sea and Russia Crimea and Caucasus.. In such a conflict Russia don't need to invade Turkey main land with any soldier.. Just sending Turkey Economy to the stone age and destroying Turkey navy and airforce ,will be a game changing thing and force Erdogan to concede defeat . and end the war. against Syria and their Idlib ambitions.

Russia can either make ,expensive IDLIB for Erdogan to hold it.. as it is now , since those kornets and tanks and 100k troops ,Erdogan have in the Syrian front deployed. will drag down Turkey economy..  Or if Erdogan goes full retard mode and declare war on Russia ,it will face a total destruction of Turkey army..and TUrkey navy and Turkey economy..RUssia even have the option of using a small tactical nuke in IDLIB , Putin already gave hints about that.. since 2015.. putin told " (he hopes things don't go out of control and that they don't have to use nukes)"   So just a 2kiloton mini nuke,.. will send the turkey army in the opposite direction.  Because it will be a very powerful message to Erdogan ,that Turkey will be destroyed if they declare war on Russia and Syria..  Russia Iskaners will be destroying Turkey bases with impunity ,very very easily.. and Erdogan will be forced to completely leave Syria by the use of lethal force.. Russia can do that.

Any sane Turkey general from Erdogan will agree that.. IDLIB and Alqaeda are not worth of it ,to hold it forever ,if that means full scale war with Russia and total destruction of their navy and military and total destruction of turkey economy.  So Putin's have much more bigger possibilities and options to restore control of IDLIB.. in a long term.. that is..
if Russia airforce is allowed to continue bombing every day ,with impunity Rebels positions ,then it will sooner or later ,will break their morale and desire to continue in a dead city with no possibility for development.   The situation in Syria can dramatically change by any change of policy in US ,Turkey or European Union.. if anyone of them retreat is game over for the rebels head shoppers..  I can't see any way ,how will US or Europe will want to permanently support Alqaeda holding a position in IDLIB... already the European Union today voted to welcome Russia back the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. And France is throwing hints of dropping the sanctions of Russia..  Nord stream 2 supported ,at the expense of US and UK.. and Ukraine.. So Europe is officially doing important steps to become closer to Russia ..  So i can't imagine any way , Turkey or US can hold IDLIB ,if Europe moves closer to Russia .  In my opinion IDLIB or Kurdistan will become zones ,where all refugees who move to Europe will be returned.. and those zones will be negotiated ,with removing of sanctions on Syria too.. by Europe.. This is when officially Alqaeda Greater idlib project will be over.. and Kurds dreams for an independent country ,finished too..

Predictions in Syrian conflict.. the big winners from biggest ones to the less ones
if Europe move to the side of Russia will be.....

Big winners..
1)Russia
2)Russia
3) and Russia.
4) IRAN
5) hezbolah
6) Syria will recover all its land. but still can't be called big winners
if all their country was destroyed and in enormous casualties in their military.

Big losers in Syrian conflict will be. (if Erdogan don't go retard mode ,to pick a fight
with Russia]

1)ISIS
2)Alqaeda
3)Israel
4)US and UK
5) Saudi Arabia and Qatar
6)Turkey.


If Erdogan goes full retard mode and declare war on Russia..
Turkey will be the biggest loser.. even when turkey will have an advantage fighting
in Syria .. they will lose , since their entire country ,capital ,coastal zones ,and military bases ,economic centers are extremely vulnerable to Russia Navy ,airforce and missiles forces.  Russia can even kick Turkey from Istanbul and hold it (for Europe control of it)  ,with Greece and Europe support .  and demand as condition to returning their lands ,that they leave immediately Syria ,and pay reparation damages.. to them..  So the only unknowns for now is in which side of the fence Turkey will be , in the Russian side? or in the big losers side? other unknows is when Americans will leave ? not if.. but when.. France too.

Because i can't see any way of US staying in Syria forever..  neither Europe supporting Alqaeda to grow in IDLIB.  in the case of Israel.. they can punish Syria a lot ,with their airforce ,but they can't change the outcome of the war ,and reverse the victories of Syria army in the ground ,specially with Russia,IRAN and China fully backing Assad.
The real victory will be for Russia defeating Alqaeda and ISIS fully.. that will demoralize
all the islamic head choppers world wide , to never mess with Russia again...and they will never again join any CIA operation to overthrow a country if they aware Russia will be fighting against them.   So Russia winning in Syria is a major kick in the ass to Sunni muslims and muslim brotherhood too.. and Saudi Arabia moving closer to Russia ,out of pure political interest. to gain sovereingty and become free of US and Israel.... will be the winning the lottery.  For Russia to get Saudi Arabia on a constructive path, to change and abandon its radical ideologies ,and welcome secularism..on its country.. and welcome christians. it will be something like an historical event , that will seal the fate of those radical muslims  and terrorist movements all over the world ,who wanted to conquer the world for Islam.

Isos wrote:If Russia takes Idlib, all those trained terrorists will go in Turkey and will be paid by US/Saudis to destroy Turkey, principally their military hardware, like they did in Syria. Then NATO will have a reason to invade Turkey and change totally the country. Like they also did in Irak. Turkey has not that much power over them. They pay and arm them but I don't think they can order anything. Saudis must have much more power.

That's not something Russia wants. Neither EU would like a new isis close to its doors. Only US would be interested by such event. That's why Turkey negociate with Russia and EU closes its eyes on this part of Syria as long as russians destroys them.

Erdogan have good relations with all terrorist in IDLIB... he only attacked those that
they can't control like ISIS.   Alqaeda = muslim brotherhood mercenaries = QATAR main sponsor and US-UK and israel too.

ISIS and other groups are Saudi Arabia guys.. they were defeated already.. Muslim Brotherhood are hostile to Saudi Arabia too.. This is why ISIS and Alqaeda fought each other..in Syria many times.. and this are reasons why Saudi Arabia will have interest and in restoring relations with Syria..  believe it or not. .Saudis already welcomed Syria to return to the Arab league and welcomed the idea of opening their embassy in Syria.. So Saudis
Already have done impressive steps , to please Russia.. They want Russia to support them ,to ditch US and Israel that disrespect them and their sovereignty all the time..  only major disagreement is IRAN..  but don't be surprised if Putin manage to restore relations with SAudi Arabia and offers protection and in change they drop their support to radical muslin and transform the country into a reformist Secular muslim nation. that will be amazing if Putin achieve that. a diplomatic giant victory.

Saudis also will want improve relations with Russia ,because to oppose Turkey/Qatar using ALqaeda against them..  Already Saudi Arabia is in a cold war with Qatar..and Turkey.. muslim brotherhood historically have been enemies of the Saudi Kingdom.  This is done by design.. Anglozionist powers , creates allies and enemies to their allies too.. to keep them in check.. to blackmail them.. So this is why US support Turkey AND Kurds too.. to use kurds as a negotiating card with Erdogan.. Even Israel face this contradictory policy.. Obama supported Israel and palestinians and hamas too..   and they opposed Israel invasion on lebanon. to target hezbolah..  US democrats.. see Israel as a potential danger too to their
nation..   and this is why they support palestinians and 2 state solution. .Giving too much power to Israel over US policies,could threaten US own interest and own country too..

anyone skeptic of Saudis sending big signals to Russia ,for changing completely their policies.. only need to look what happened in G20.. if pictures speaks better than a thousand words.. then what about a video and body language?



Putin do have very big opportunities to get Saudi arabia under Russian orbit..
not just words but actions too..
If Putin manage to get Saudi Arabia to abandon US and move Russian orbit , and offers them protection . in change for Saudis abandoning terrorism , and offering information to Russia , of terrorist cells in Russia.. and with transforming Saudi arabia into a secular nation that welcome christians.. this will be monumental Diplomatic victory for Russia.. and rewrite
all history books in foreign policy . how powerful diplomacy can be.. more than nuclear weapons.  Pakistan is also showing interest in moving towards Russia orbit..  
and already Saudi Foreign minister , spoke on the media , of considering allowing Russia
to deploy a military base in Saudi Arabia.. this was when Trump was threatening Saudis with abandoning their protection if don't pay a lot of money for security.
Putin indeed should push in this direction get Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to become secular reformist countries too and move to Russian orbit in change of Russia offering them security from US and Israel, helping their sovereignty and security .


So there are very big signs already ,of how the alliances in middle east..could move..in a future.. Almost Russia taking it all.. Russia influence almost all middle east already..including Saudis and their enemies Qatar..too.. Only unknowns are Turkey in which direction they will go.. i never saw Erdogan as a genuine ally..  Most likely relations will get worse and worse , and Erogan will lose influence in Turkey in the long term and his policies no longer supported.

Isos wrote:
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
21m
#BREAKING: Turkish warplanes enter Syrian airspace and fly over western Aleppo and southern Idlib



Fuat
@fuadhud
·
14m
Reports that Syrian warplanes are taking off towards Turkish jets.

If Turkey attack Syrian army positions ,those planes will get shot down.. Turkey will not be able to use its airforce to impose its will over Syrian advances on IDLIB..  Syria will have no problem creating a no fly zone for Turkey.. if they just bomb a single time  Syrian army. S-300s can take Turkey planes from far distances too. So Erdogan will soon realize ,they can't impose its will or even protect their rebels using in Syria airspace without Russia and Syria
support. If they start bombing Syria army.. they will shut down Turkey planes and this will be bad for ERdogan image..  Turkey will have to choose between Russia and Alqaeda in IDBLIB.. sooner or later will have to do it.. and the Syrian army can't back down , is their country..and will never allow Alqaeda to grow in IDLIB . and allowed to continue to target Russia base and Syrian army positions.. Is ridiculous the policies Erdogan trying to push..
IS a dead end..  it will not work and he risk a direct confrontation with Russia..that could turn into a war in little time ,. one that Erdogan will lose.. badly.

My prediction ,it will be a matter of time ,Erdogan will provoke their planes to be shot down by Syrian defenses... Turkey is on a dead end policy with Russia ,and Russia and Syria can't negotiate to allow Alqaeda to continue in IDLIB..