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    Russian Economy General News: #5

    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:31 am

    Austin wrote:As the difference between Germany and Russia is $100 billion in PPP figure , I wanted to know if Russia GDP drops around ~ 2.8-3 % in 2015 as is projected will the PPP figure change in any way and Germany would next year retain the lead

    That 2 - 3% is nominal GDP so currency value in FOREX accounts as well.

    As for PPP, I imagine it will drop simply due to inflation figures. Will it drop enough? I don't know. Maybe or maybe not.
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    Post  Austin Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:14 am

    Something to chew , Note that Saudi Rial to USD has remain constant in 5 years i.e $1=3.75

    Considering Oil in past 1 years has drastically dropped Saudi rial hasnt changed , compare to Russian Rouble loosing significat value to USD due to devaluation

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR


    Not that leads me to believe , Saudi is burning USD from its reserve which they are not stating it to maintain the constant currency peg to USD
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    Post  Werewolf Sun Aug 16, 2015 1:16 pm

    Nice pic, KoteMore.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:38 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:As the difference between Germany and Russia is $100 billion in PPP figure , I wanted to know if Russia GDP drops around ~ 2.8-3 % in 2015 as is projected will the PPP figure change in any way and Germany would next year retain the lead

    That 2 - 3% is nominal GDP so currency value in FOREX accounts as well.

    As for PPP, I imagine it will drop simply due to inflation figures.  Will it drop enough?  I don't know.  Maybe or maybe not.

    One thing for sure is that GKS will get the GDP deflator wrong as it has consistently for over 15 years.
    It never, ever took into account the "inflation" associated from the transition of command economy prices
    to market prices.   This is an epic oversight deliberate or not.   It is not in any way standard inflation
    which occurs in capitalist economies due to various processes.   It is a restructuring transient and it
    makes no sense whatsoever to use 1990 prices as a reference point.   In fact one can only properly
    identify the inflation (both consumer and producer) after the system reaches post command economy
    equilibrium (this does not mean steady state).  

    The problem is that transition of prices from command economy to market is still ongoing after 25 years.
    It is hard to believe but this is real.   Obviously consumer prices have transitioned long ago.  But prices
    for various industrial and service transactions on the larger scale are still much lower than western ones.
    You can see this in the military industrial complex of Russia.   Also, many services are still provided for
    free which are priced in the west and there is a slow transition to pricing of those services.   So a big
    chunk of Russia's inflation is not inflation but GKS, CBR, etc, treat it as such.   So the GDP deflator is
    too high and Russia's real GDP growth is underestimated each year.   My view is that this non-inflation
    is over 2% now and was much higher in 2000.  This implies Russia's GDP is underestimated by over 50%.

    A piece of supporting evidence is the pattern of inflation response to the ruble devaluation last year.   If
    Russia's inflation was really around 8% per year (and over 10% just recently), then one would expect a
    much longer period of high inflation after the devaluation as the instability of Russia's underdeveloped
    economy would amplify the shock initially and then prevent a quick adjustment.   Yet the inflation spike
    was over by March of 2015.   This rapid adjustment tells me that Russia's economy is not as unstable as
    the official inflation figures imply.   And the actual inflation now and before the devaluation was much lower:
    it was really 6% when it was claimed to be 12%.  

    Another piece of evidence is how the 50% annual money supply growth over most of the last 15 years
    was associated with official inflation of less than 14% (and really much lower).   This is a total contradiction
    to all the monetarist witch doctor "theories" and claims for the Russian economy.   If the Russian economy
    was fully equilibrated in terms of prices and transactions were fully monetized, then one would expect the
    inflation to be over 50% and for it to go into the Weimar regime.   There would be no absorption of the
    extra money released and it would result in hyperinflation.   But in fact the extra money was readily absorbed
    since the economy is in a pricing transition regime and a huge number of economic transactions were and
    still are being pulled towards market prices and even prices for the first time.   Money has to be made available
    to accommodate this.   (BTW, think about housing prices in Russia, they are slowly going from the free mode
    to a priced mode; banks need liquidity to offer mortgages for the first time).
    franco
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    Post  franco Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:43 pm

    English language article on the same subject includes graphs. Russia went from 12th place in 1999 to 5th in 2014.
    http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/08/august-15th-2015-sdelanounas.html
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:57 pm

    kvs wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:As the difference between Germany and Russia is $100 billion in PPP figure , I wanted to know if Russia GDP drops around ~ 2.8-3 % in 2015 as is projected will the PPP figure change in any way and Germany would next year retain the lead

    That 2 - 3% is nominal GDP so currency value in FOREX accounts as well.

    As for PPP, I imagine it will drop simply due to inflation figures.  Will it drop enough?  I don't know.  Maybe or maybe not.

    One thing for sure is that GKS will get the GDP deflator wrong as it has consistently for over 15 years.
    It never, ever took into account the "inflation" associated from the transition of command economy prices
    to market prices.   This is an epic oversight deliberate or not.   It is not in any way standard inflation
    which occurs in capitalist economies due to various processes.   It is a restructuring transient and it
    makes no sense whatsoever to use 1990 prices as a reference point.   In fact one can only properly
    identify the inflation (both consumer and producer) after the system reaches post command economy
    equilibrium (this does not mean steady state).  

    The problem is that transition of prices from command economy to market is still ongoing after 25 years.
    It is hard to believe but this is real.   Obviously consumer prices have transitioned long ago.  But prices
    for various industrial and service transactions on the larger scale are still much lower than western ones.
    You can see this in the military industrial complex of Russia.   Also, many services are still provided for
    free which are priced in the west and there is a slow transition to pricing of those services.   So a big
    chunk of Russia's inflation is not inflation but GKS, CBR, etc, treat it as such.   So the GDP deflator is
    too high and Russia's real GDP growth is underestimated each year.   My view is that this non-inflation
    is over 2% now and was much higher in 2000.  This implies Russia's GDP is underestimated by over 50%.

    A piece of supporting evidence is the pattern of inflation response to the ruble devaluation last year.   If
    Russia's inflation was really around 8% per year (and over 10% just recently), then one would expect a
    much longer period of high inflation after the devaluation as the instability of Russia's underdeveloped
    economy would amplify the shock initially and then prevent a quick adjustment.   Yet the inflation spike
    was over by March of 2015.   This rapid adjustment tells me that Russia's economy is not as unstable as
    the official inflation figures imply.   And the actual inflation now and before the devaluation was much lower:
    it was really 6% when it was claimed to be 12%.  

    Another piece of evidence is how the 50% annual money supply growth over most of the last 15 years
    was associated with official inflation of less than 14% (and really much lower).   This is a total contradiction
    to all the monetarist witch doctor "theories" and claims for the Russian economy.   If the Russian economy
    was fully equilibrated in terms of prices and transactions were fully monetized, then one would expect the
    inflation to be over 50% and for it to go into the Weimar regime.   There would be no absorption of the
    extra money released and it would result in hyperinflation.   But in fact the extra money was readily absorbed
    since the economy is in a pricing transition regime and a huge number of economic transactions were and
    still are being pulled towards market prices and even prices for the first time.   Money has to be made available
    to accommodate this.   (BTW, think about housing prices in Russia, they are slowly going from the free mode
    to a priced mode; banks need liquidity to offer mortgages for the first time).

    The government, the betterment of the people, will need to keep a program for free/cheap housing for its people and have the secondary option of luxury paid homes. Look how royally screwed we are here in our paid home structure. 1/3 of a persons income goes directly to the house and then another around another 1/3 to bills. Then food is costly. So you end up with a tenth of your paycheque to use freely. And if you are paid half decent, that isnt a lot left. Hence why personal debt becomes a major issue.

    Russia doesnt want to go this way to screw its people just for a number on a piece of paper.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sun Aug 16, 2015 5:31 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    The government, the betterment of the people, will need to keep a program for free/cheap housing for its people and have the secondary option of luxury paid homes. Look how royally screwed we are here in our paid home structure. 1/3 of a persons income goes directly to the house and then another around another 1/3 to bills. Then food is costly. So you end up with a tenth of your paycheque to use freely. And if you are paid half decent, that isnt a lot left. Hence why personal debt becomes a major issue.

    Russia doesnt want to go this way to screw its people just for a number on a piece of paper.

    I fully agree. But the beast of capitalism has been unleashed and the market will decide. We can see already in Moscow
    insane housing pricing where "trash Soviet apartments" are going for premium prices one can find in Tokyo or New York.
    I guess the good thing is that the government is not forcing people out of their Soviet apartments and the transition to
    mortgaged housing is voluntary.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Aug 16, 2015 5:43 pm

    With programs like free housing for families with 3 or more children is great. Will help increase numbers and as well, give housing for people thay can use the money saved on their children.

    Other thing I read on sdelanounas and tass was that a huge portion of new apartments and co-development with China in housing construction materials and what not, is aimed at low cost housing. They are banking on the fact that they may be aware of capitalisms dirty head in housing terms, and trying to coushin it with low cost housings and far more contracts on building new homes.

    Your also right in that they are not forcing people out of their soviet accomodations. But that is because the deeds was handed to the people in the 90's like shares of state run companies (which 5th columnist oligarches purchased with bread for since people were poor back then). Good thing the ones still in these didnt sell the deeds away for a bowl of soup.

    I hear that in cities, many moved out of their soviet apartment and into new flats, while renting their soviet flat out, so it was another incomes. Apparently quite a lot of people do that. This was told to me by this Romanian family whos mom worked in Moscow as a home renovater. Very nice family and very straight to the point.
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    Post  Viktor Sun Aug 16, 2015 5:59 pm

    Nice thumbsup

    Away From Dollar: Russia, China to Create Entirely Different Gold Market
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    Post  Vann7 Sun Aug 16, 2015 6:05 pm

    Yeah.. Seph explained well the lie of the claims that Russia defense budget was cut in half or anything of the like.. (because the Ruble have depreciated half) Rolling Eyes  . IF Russia defense Industry bought all its parts from Americans and its labor was also paid in Dollars ,then certainly
    this will be the case..  This happened for example in RT media.. that the Ruble devaluation directly hit their plans for expanding.. because now in Russian terms their employees require near twice more rubles than before for their service.. The RT budget needs to spend near twice more in payroll ,because it pays them in Dollars or Euros.   But RUssia internal industry is a different story..  Properties in Russia does not cost twice more ,than 2013 , salaries are not cut in half either.. All this inflation thing , is neither all products...is an average..and does not affect every thing. Specially will not affect any product 100% independent its process from outside economies.  

    The more easier albeit simplistic still useful way to measure and compare .should be done in terms of things produced..  how many planes or tanks Russia or Missiles Russia produced in 2013 vs 2015.. How many defense projects have been canceled because of Ruble pressure? I dont remember any.. More Pak-Fas will be done than previously Russia wanted.. Their Space Industry unfortunately that had some use of western imported parts.. do experienced a 10% cut.. But this is a far cry of the near 50% of Ruble devaluation.  

    If one Chocolate bar price imported from US..its cost was $1 dollar in 2013.. then now its
    cost should be $1.45 . Which is a lot.. but certainly is not going to make anyone go bankrupt
    if either the buy the chocolate or you choose to avoid it.. and start saving more your money in things really necessary. but you can compensate by Importing chocolate from Venezuela or any other country that is more competitive is price..    But not even this is always
    true..  Apple for example for countering the Ruble devaluation lowered the price of their Iphones
    according to them by a lot.. So in the end all this Inflation thing..  while it is important that Russia controls it.. it have been taken beyond proportions ,by charlatans on internet ,used a lot to mislead people into thinking the RUssia economy is now half of what it used to be in 2013. Because the Ruble now depreciated by near half of the Dollar.  

    In the end the import Substitution is going to pay off to Russia and promote the local business.

    The things that will hit hard all this sanctions ,that is a bit worry is the Western Retail chains in
    Russia. because every CLothing or Xboxone retail store could cost a lot more if the retail chain have not lowered the prices. So i think the place that sanctions will hit harder in Russia is on the jobs of RUssians working on western retail outlets.. in Russia..  we could see those outlets to reduce hours or simply get rid of half of their staff.. So is not all Rainbows either.. but is not catastrophic neither.. Everyone expect ,knows ,the oil price will not last low forever..  The fracking thing will not last ...and with population increasing..the demands of Oil and Gas will only increase.  So i will not be surprised to see Oil again at $100 just in 2-3 years. Or even earlier.. any new war in the middle east will skyrocket oil prices.

    Things that will be game changing are prices of Russian made Cars or Apartments and the cost of Education and transportation. Because Oil is cheaper the last one should be more cheap at least. but a chocolate bar is not going to be a problem..i Suspect many of the inflation in Russia of domestic product is largely based on people's panic.. based of western propaganda .more than anything.. that they think the RUble will collapse and business raise the prices of things artificially for no logical reason.. but it will be temporary. Apparently is now being controlled and reduced. One thing that was refreshing to see ,from Russian the average society polls and interviews i have seen is how well they are embracing the economy pressure. Is like business as
    usual for them. There was long lines of people in the new Aquarium in moscow and the perception on the society is one of trust on their government.. This is something rare to see in the west. Laughing

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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sun Aug 16, 2015 6:22 pm

    Austin wrote:Something to chew , Note that Saudi Rial to USD has remain constant in 5 years i.e $1=3.75

    Considering Oil in past 1 years has drastically dropped Saudi rial hasnt changed , compare to Russian Rouble loosing significat value to USD due to devaluation

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR


    Not that leads me to believe , Saudi is burning USD from its reserve which they are not stating it to maintain the constant currency peg to USD

    Actually it's most likely hedgefunds based in New York who want to maintain U.S Dollar primacy/hegemony and the Saudi's are an important integral part of that primacy equation, so their currency is propped up while others are attacked. The fluctuations of the Rouble were likely the work of George Soros, and his and other hedgefunds are engaging in massive speculative attacks against the currencies of country's that refuse to be vassal states for Anglo-supremacy.

    The pattern is pretty clear, the massive oil producing nations who refused to capitulate towards the Atlanticists had their currencies hit with massive speculative attacks. Iranian, Venezuelan, and Russian currencies were all hit within a time frame of 4-5 years, it's pretty damn obvious that it was deliberate and there was not one ounce of coincidence. Also the currencies of huge trading blocks were hit to prop up the cancer-stricken Dollar...the EU as well as the BRICS nations, all had their currencies hit with speculative attacks within a 5 year time span.
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    Post  max steel Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:11 pm

    Russian GDP Surpasses Germany in PPP   Cool


    Russia now before Germany world’s 5th largest economy, largest in Europe, and China becomes overwhelming world leader. - Russia has overtaken Germany as world's fifth largest economy despite of being target of Western sanctions warfare. This is according to World Bank data released July 1, 2015. But there has been no mention of this in the Western press - not much in Russian either - although this is sensational news. Anybody has an idea why the Western journalists and analysts missed the news (and pro-Western Russian ones. Not seen it on RT either)? I get the feeling the Western media and their Russian followers are in tatters.- The rankings are based on PPP (purchasing power parity) which calculates the real GDP that is free from the currency exchange distortions inherent in the nominal figures. This is the only relevant way to express the comparative size of economies. – At the same time China has drawn a significant lead over USA as the absolute world economic powerhouse number one.

    The linked story is from a “pro-Kremlin” media outlet (where else would you expect to find the truth?).

    So if you doubt,

    check the relevant data in this Wikipedia article
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) or

    go directly to the World Bank data (not complete for all countries yet for 2014) http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP_PPP.pdf.


    now PPP  does mean development, but the starting point is so low so it takes time for things to catch up with  expectations. If anything the statistics on Russia are more meaningful. They are not obscured with weird definitions of GDP (like including drugs and prostitution), inflation and massive amounts of debt and money printing


    http://fortruss.blogspot.in/2015/08/august-15th-2015-sdelanounas.html


    Last edited by max steel on Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  victor1985 Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:22 pm

    nothing to worry. things will get better. just wait
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:26 pm

    Oh wow, a collection of bullshit. Care to share more troll? The part about lack of diversification is really funny. You should check out rest of the threads to aalready be proven wrong. I like how they use data from 2008 - 2012. Guess 3 years makes no difference.

    Last one is a good joke. Less productive people? Is that why they surpassed Germany then?

    People leaving in droves? Migration statistics say otherwise. In 2015 in June alone, over 200,000 migrants entered the country. 1 month in the beginning of the year. As well, Russia is one of the most educated country, so I find it even more funny that they say their "educated" are leaving.

    Propaganda at its finest. Since what they proclaim is being proven wrong already.

    I like their sources. The most biased of all. I wonder where they get their figures from?
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    Post  victor1985 Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:48 pm

    productivity today is given by robots. and number of costs. and cost of electricity/fuel for every company.
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    Post  Neutrality Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:01 pm

    Americans and productivity? Is this a joke? This is coming from a country which has relocated half of their workforce to Chinese sweatshops.
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:03 pm

    Neutrality wrote:Americans and productivity? Is this a joke? This is coming from a country which has relocated half of their workforce to Chinese sweatshops.

    With about 1/3 of US population on a form of welfare and apparent 93M jobless amd given up, I question US and its media. Recently US media stated an Iranian general visited Russia when it didnt happen, and they try to use it as an excuse to state Russia breaks the UN security laws.

    What I am more curious about though, is where their numbers are coming from? They state sources, but where did these sources get their sources from? Couldnt be from gkv because of the migration comments.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:27 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Oh wow, a collection of bullshit. Care to share more troll? The part about lack of diversification is really funny. You should check out rest of the threads to aalready be proven wrong. I like how they use data from 2008 - 2012. Guess 3 years makes no difference.

    Last one is a good joke. Less productive people? Is that why they surpassed Germany then?

    People leaving in droves? Migration statistics say otherwise. In 2015 in June alone, over 200,000 migrants entered the country. 1 month in the beginning of the year. As well, Russia is one of the most educated country, so I find it even more funny that they say their "educated" are leaving.

    Propaganda at its finest. Since what they proclaim is being proven wrong already.

    I like their sources. The most biased of all. I wonder where they get their figures from?

    Whatever you do, do not post link to sdelanounas!!!

    If he sees it he will get a several simultaneous strokes. lol1 russia
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:32 pm

    American Eagle wrote:time.com/3998248/these-5-facts-explain-russias-economic-decline/

    [b[These 5 Facts Explain Russia’s Economic Decline

    Corruption, cheap oil and unproductive workers all hold Russia back—though Russians don't seem to care

    For the first time since 2009—low point of the global economic slowdown—Russia is in recession. Its economy will contract 3 percent this year, though Moscow’s $360 billion in cash reserves will cushion the immediate blow. Still, as President Vladimir Putin continues to try to assert Russian power on the international stage, it has become clear that he is now ruling a “submerging market.” Unless something changes, Russia is in for a slow and steady economic decline. These five sets of stats explain why.

    (TIME, International Monetary Fund)

    1. Lack of Diversification

    It’s not simply the size of your economy, but its diversity and resilience that counts. For years, the Kremlin has supported and protected large state-owned companies at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). But those smaller firms are the foundation of any strong and well-diversified economy. SMEs spur innovation and respond effectively to changing times, technologies, and consumer tastes. In the EU, SMEs contribute an average of 40 percent to their respective countries’ GDP; in Russia, SMEs contribute just 15 percent. Those are daunting figures for anyone looking to start a business in Russia.

    Things aren’t getting better—between 2008 and 2012, Russia’s private sector lost 300,000 jobs while the state added 1.1 million workers to its payroll. Rather than diversifying, Moscow is doubling down on its state-centered approach to economic development.

    (JYSkebank, The Economist)

    2. At the Mercy of Oil Markets

    The price of oil has now fallen below $45 a barrel—welcome to the new normal. OPEC continues to pump oil at historic rates as it tries to price out competitors, and Iran expects to bring over a million new barrels a day to world markets after the lifting of international sanctions. These are deeply troubling developments for Moscow, which relies on oil and gas sales for nearly 50 percent of its government revenues. In 1999, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s export proceeds; today they account for 68 percent. Moscow has grown so reliant on energy sales that for each dollar the price of oil drops, Russia loses about $2 billion in potential sales. For Russia to balance its budget, oil will need to surge back to $100 a barrel. That’s going to take a while.

    (CNBC, CNN, Wall Street Journal , World Affairs, EIA, BBC, Financial Times)

    3. At the Mercy of Sanctions[/b[

    Moscow’s over-reliance on crude oil—which makes up 40 percent of Russia’s state budget—has also left the country particularly vulnerable to international sanctions. Given the age of many existing fields, Russia will increasingly depend on cutting-edge technology from Western firms to pump oil from difficult-to-reach shale and deep-water reserves. These sources could account for more than 15% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of the gas. Some argue that Russia can turn for help to China—but while China wants more Russian oil and gas, it doesn’t have the technology Russia needs to draw those resources from the ground. The IMF believes sanctions could eventually cost Russia 9 percent of its GDP.

    (EIA, Forbes, Reuters)

    [b]4. Russia’s Other Problems


    Russians aren’t nearly as productive as they could be. For each hour worked, the average Russian worker contributes $25.90 to Russia’s GDP. The average Greek worker adds $36.20 per hour of work. And Greece is not a country you want to trail in productivity. The average for U.S. workers? $67.40.

    In addition, endemic corruption costs the Russian economy between $300 and $500 billion each year, or roughly the cost of three Greek bailout packages combined. This year, Freedom House gave the country a 6.75 on its corruption scale; 7 is “most corrupt.”

    It’s no surprise then that well-educated Russians are leaving their country in droves. Between 2012 and 2013, more than 300,000 people left Russia in search of greener economic pastures, and experts believe that number has only risen since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year.

    (Bloomberg, OECD, PBS, Telegraph, Wall Street Journal, Freedom House, Washington Post)

    5. No Incentive to Change

    Russia’s biggest problem may be denial. Typically, a stumbling economy brings about change in political leadership. Some countries, like Greece, take this to an extreme—Athens has seen five different governments in five years. But Russians have gone the other way—as their economy has slowed, Putin has grown more popular; he now holds an approval rating of 86 percent. More surprising is that while 73 percent of Russians are unhappy with their economy, 7 in 10 approve of the way Putin is handling it.

    How is that possible? About 90 percent of all Russians get their news from Russian television channels directly controlled by the Kremlin. By framing sanctions and the invasion of Ukraine as “Russia vs. the West”, Putin has succeeded in stoking the country’s nationalism. Today, 63 percent of Russians have a very favorable view of their country, up from 29 percent in 2013 and 51 percent in 2014. It’s easier under those circumstances to blame bad economic circumstances on outsiders. Credit where credit’s due—Putin knows what his people want to hear. It’s just not clear if he knows how to fix his flailing economy.
    [/b]


    300 to 500 bln a year? On corruption? How? Fiscal optimization alone costs the US around 2.5 trillion in revenue. The Subprime crisis cost the taxpayer roughly 6 trillion over 3 years. And that's not something you can actually explain by corruption. Since the model for the subprime was totally legal...

    Productivity : "GDP is, for this purpose, only a very rough measure. Maximizing GDP, in principal, also allows maximizing capital usage. For this reason GDP is systematically biased in favour of capital intensive production at the expense of knowledge and labour-intensive production. The use of capital in the GDP-measure is considered to be as valuable as the production’s ability to pay taxes, profits and labor compensation. The bias of the GDP is actually the difference between the GDP and the producer income."

    And while the US has a high raw productivity, they are caught up by a country whose productivity is even lower than Russia's. CHINA! Yeah Bitch Chinese productivity is under 15USD/hour. But that doesn't even stop the US from feeling that soy-smelling overpumped Chinese D deep down the chocolate alley.

    So pureasoo tear me moar about productivity.


    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:55 pm


    What Economic Crisis? 'Even if Russia Were Isolated, It Would've Survived'

    Western economists claiming that Russian economy is in crisis due to its GDP shrinking have no idea what they are talking about, Czech Free Press argues.................

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150816/1025805650.html#ixzz3j0eyHvzY
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:02 pm

    thumbsup  Will you look at this:

    Sanctions Help Russia’s Agricultural Sector – German Entrepreneur

    http://www.sputniknews.com/russia/20150815/1025794363.html

    A German entrepreneur who runs Russia's major plant for the production of dairy products said that Russia’s food embargo designed to ban imports of certain Western products helps the Russian agricultural sector.

    A year ago, Stefan Dürr advised Russian President Vladimir Putin in a personal conversation to respond to economic sanctions imposed by the West. In an interview with the German newspaper, the businessman said that now he would give the Russian President the same advice........................

    It's just like the best days of Russian Empire, when Germans and other Europeans went to Russia to make a fortune and name for themselves.  
    russia  russia  russia
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:17 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    What Economic Crisis? 'Even if Russia Were Isolated, It Would've Survived'

    Western economists claiming that Russian economy is in crisis due to its GDP shrinking have no idea what they are talking about, Czech Free Press argues.................

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150816/1025805650.html#ixzz3j0eyHvzY

    Every dollar of substituted imports translates into two dollars of GDP gain (+1 for cancellation of imports and +1 for domestic production of said
    imports).

    I see assorted retards in the west call the Moody's projected 5% GDP decline for Russia "a depression". These people need brain transplants,
    ASAP.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:22 pm

    kvs wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    What Economic Crisis? 'Even if Russia Were Isolated, It Would've Survived'

    Western economists claiming that Russian economy is in crisis due to its GDP shrinking have no idea what they are talking about, Czech Free Press argues.................

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150816/1025805650.html#ixzz3j0eyHvzY

    Every dollar of substituted imports translates into two dollars of GDP gain (+1 for cancellation of imports and +1 for domestic production of said
    imports).  

    I see assorted retards in the west call the Moody's projected 5% GDP decline for Russia "a depression".   These people need brain transplants,
    ASAP.

    I was sitting here all giddy just imagining how you were going to school the bs article posted by american eagle like you did in the past with similar. Please dont dissapoint me KVS I love you
    zg18
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    Post  zg18 Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:25 pm

    kvs wrote:Every dollar of substituted imports translates into two dollars of GDP gain (+1 for cancellation of imports and +1 for domestic production of said
    imports).  

    I see assorted retards in the west call the Moody's projected 5% GDP decline for Russia "a depression".   These people need brain transplants,
    ASAP.

    Constantin Gurdgiev pretty much sums it up:

    As the above table shows, in 12 months through June 2015, Russian Total External Debt fell 24%, down USD176.6 billion - much of it due to devaluation of the ruble and repayments of maturing debt. Of this, Government debt is down USD22.1 billion or 39% - a huge drop. Banks managed to deleverage out of USD59.9 billion in 12 months through June 2015 (down 29%) and Other Sectors external liabilities were down USD88.8 billion (-20%).

    These are absolutely massive figures indicating:
    1) One of the underlying causes of the ongoing economic recession (contracting credit supply and debt repayments drag on investment and consumer credit);
    2) Strengthening of corporate and banks' balance sheets; and
    3) Overall longer term improvement in Russian debt exposures.

    http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2015/08/15815-russian-external-debt-big.html

    You take short term pain for long-term gain , it`s rational economics. Something forgotten in the West.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:20 am

    American Eagle wrote:
    time.com/3998248/these-5-facts-explain-russias-economic-decline/

    These 5 Facts Explain Russia’s Economic Decline

    1. Lack of Diversification

       It’s not simply the size of your economy, but its diversity and resilience that counts. For years, the Kremlin has supported and protected large state-owned companies at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). But those smaller firms are the foundation of any strong and well-diversified economy. SMEs spur innovation and respond effectively to changing times, technologies, and consumer tastes. In the EU, SMEs contribute an average of 40 percent to their respective countries’ GDP; in Russia, SMEs contribute just 15 percent. Those are daunting figures for anyone looking to start a business in Russia.

       Things aren’t getting better—between 2008 and 2012, Russia’s private sector lost 300,000 jobs while the state added 1.1 million workers to its payroll. Rather than diversifying, Moscow is doubling down on its state-centered approach to economic development.

    These claims are lies. They count Rosneft and Gazprom and UAC and every other such enterprise as "state". These are autonomous
    companies that are distinguished by the fact that the Russian state is a dominant shareholder. Please tell us more how UAC (which includes
    Sukhoi) is a "failure" and then go f*ck off.

    http://mbmosreg.ru/en/welcome

    Number of SMEs in Moscow Region, including medium-sized enterprises, small and micro-enterprises, individual entrepreneurs

    2010 ---------- 2011 --------- 2012 --------- 2013
    109.3 thousand 129.4 thousand 165.9 thousand 215.3 thousand

    So the number of small and medium sized businesses in the Moscow region (a key economic zone in Russia) doubled in three
    years but Time wants everyone to believe that nothing of the sort happened.



       2. At the Mercy of Oil Markets

       The price of oil has now fallen below $45 a barrel—welcome to the new normal. OPEC continues to pump oil at historic rates as it tries to price out competitors, and Iran expects to bring over a million new barrels a day to world markets after the lifting of international sanctions. These are deeply troubling developments for Moscow, which relies on oil and gas sales for nearly 50 percent of its government revenues. In 1999, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s export proceeds; today they account for 68 percent. Moscow has grown so reliant on energy sales that for each dollar the price of oil drops, Russia loses about $2 billion in potential sales. For Russia to balance its budget, oil will need to surge back to $100 a barrel. That’s going to take a while.

    But only 13% of Russia's GDP depends on oil and natural gas. The fact that government revenues are 40% dependent (see below, they can't
    even get the number right) says that the Russian government is doing the optimal thing. It has shifted the tax burden onto the resource
    sector instead of onto Russian citizens. Russians pay 13% flat income taxes. Eat your heart out you NATO chauvinist numbskulls.


      3. At the Mercy of Sanctions

       Moscow’s over-reliance on crude oil—which makes up 40 percent of Russia’s state budget—has also left the country particularly vulnerable to international sanctions. Given the age of many existing fields, Russia will increasingly depend on cutting-edge technology from Western firms to pump oil from difficult-to-reach shale and deep-water reserves. These sources could account for more than 15% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of the gas. Some argue that Russia can turn for help to China—but while China wants more Russian oil and gas, it doesn’t have the technology Russia needs to draw those resources from the ground. The IMF believes sanctions could eventually cost Russia 9 percent of its GDP.

    The above is simply laughable delusion and wishful thinking. There has been no "cutting-edge" technology revolution in the oil and gas sector
    in the last 15 years. Maximal contact drilling (tree pattern horizontal wells) and 3D seismic tomography for high resolution field topology
    characterization were developed decades ago. Any updates are incremental. The USSR led the world in developing well drilling technology
    during the 1980s as it drilled the deepest wells in the world. Russia bought out oil and gas field services (technology support) companies
    during the early 2000s and closed any technology gap it had.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/20/us-russia-crisis-eurasia-schlumberger-nv-idUSKBN0KT0KA20150120

    Why would Schlumberger buy a Russian technical services company if Russia lacked capacity in this field? Also, this buyout proves that
    the flow of "cutting edge" tech is not stopping.

    BTW, "cutting edge" tech is a Pavlovian trigger phrase for western media consumer doggies. It parks their brain in neutral and they can
    feel all warm and fuzzy inside and stop using their brains for critical thinking.


     4. Russia’s Other Problems

       Russians aren’t nearly as productive as they could be. For each hour worked, the average Russian worker contributes $25.90 to Russia’s GDP. The average Greek worker adds $36.20 per hour of work. And Greece is not a country you want to trail in productivity. The average for U.S. workers? $67.40.

    Let's play retarded games with numbers. Only fucktards would believe that the US GDP is purely domestically produced. The above brain dead
    calculation takes the US GDP and divides it by the number or workers and then the number of hours they work per year. But that is not how you
    calculate productivity. You sum up the fraction of the GDP that is produced by those workers and then divide. So $67.40 becomes closer
    to $30. Also, the US economy has a 40% "financial industry" fraction. This "industry" consists of a few workers pushing buttons and computers
    doing all the transactions. So we have an apples and oranges comparison with Russia where the GDP does not have such a large financial industry
    fraction. The US "efficiency" is due to its huge external GDP footprint and its huge financial industry.


       In addition, endemic corruption costs the Russian economy between $300 and $500 billion each year, or roughly the cost of three Greek bailout packages combined. This year, Freedom House gave the country a 6.75 on its corruption scale; 7 is “most corrupt.”

    Anyone citing "Freedom House" a neocon PAC is either a certifiable idiot or malicious. These rankings are transparent BS since they
    place Mexico and Indian way above Russia. Mexico is notoriously corrupt and the narco-mafia war proves this. In India we had
    $14.5 billion in food aid stolen by corrupt local officials for resale (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-08-28/poor-in-india-starve-as-politicians-steal-14-5-billion-of-food). I challenge any NATO drone to find a similar example in Russia.


       It’s no surprise then that well-educated Russians are leaving their country in droves. Between 2012 and 2013, more than 300,000 people left Russia in search of greener economic pastures, and experts believe that number has only risen since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year.

    Yet more lying through context removal. Of those 300,000 people most were from the Central Asian 'stans who went home.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/02/27/the-myth-of-russias-brain-drain/ (I will throw Adomanis, the fuckwit as a source).
    http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/20/2557 (hilarious distortion through broken telephone misquotation, great job NATO drone media!)
    http://darussophile.com/2011/06/end-of-russias-brain-drain/


     5. No Incentive to Change

       Russia’s biggest problem may be denial. Typically, a stumbling economy brings about change in political leadership. Some countries, like Greece, take this to an extreme—Athens has seen five different governments in five years. But Russians have gone the other way—as their economy has slowed, Putin has grown more popular; he now holds an approval rating of 86 percent. More surprising is that while 73 percent of Russians are unhappy with their economy, 7 in 10 approve of the way Putin is handling it.

       How is that possible? About 90 percent of all Russians get their news from Russian television channels directly controlled by the Kremlin. By framing sanctions and the invasion of Ukraine as “Russia vs. the West”, Putin has succeeded in stoking the country’s nationalism. Today, 63 percent of Russians have a very favorable view of their country, up from 29 percent in 2013 and 51 percent in 2014. It’s easier under those circumstances to blame bad economic circumstances on outsiders. Credit where credit’s due—Putin knows what his people want to hear. It’s just not clear if he knows how to fix his flailing economy.

    God, what total rubbish. I have heard this line about Russians being in denial and not "voting for change". As Bill Clinton said, "it's the economy, stupid".
    Russian wages went from $80 per month in 1998 to $960 per month as of early 2014 (you need to use PPP metrics to account for ruble devaluation).
    Putin and his "regime" have delivered systematically better living conditions year in and year out. Why should Russians vote from some NATO chosen
    5th column dirtbag? Take your hubris rotted thinking and peddle it elsewhere NATO fuckwits!

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