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    Russian Economy General News: #4

    KoTeMoRe
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:23 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Probably "real growth"...Just like with Poland in 2009.

    Speculative moments have this amazing ability to create growth from nothing fro short amounts. So In december and february you had a bounce.

    And the World bank said the same...


    World bank said 2% drop? Ouch. Guess they will need to figure something out.

    World bank says 1.6-3.8 dip from last year. Russians expect from 2 to 4%.

    However there are some very good points with Russian economy. Low Consumer credit and low % of Non Performing Loans. And generally less opaque unemployment numbers.

    Slightly off topic: this week quarantine is hard on my argument.

    Kimppis: Now first quarter has been slow two years in row...

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    Post  Viktor on Thu Apr 23, 2015 8:17 pm

    Nice  thumbsup

    Medvedev: GDP growth will resume by the end of the year
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    Russian Economy General News: #4 - Page 18 Empty The status of Russian Economy and its perceived Oil dependency #

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 8:30 pm

    Viktor wrote:Nice  thumbsup


    Off course, the Russian state has the oil at 50 USD all year now, guess what? Oil will shoot up at 70 by the end of the year and is already at 61...
    See people that's how you diversify :sarcasm:...
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    Post  max steel on Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:01 pm

    Russia's Economy: Not Just Natural Resources

    Russia’s economy doesn’t get a lot of love. It’s “Nigeria with snow,” “Burkina Faso with rockets,” or, in John McCain’s oft-repeated quip, “a gas station masquerading as a country.”

    To be sure, natural resources genuinely play a large role. It would be foolish (and inaccurate!) to try to totally discount the huge influence of companies like Gazprom, Rosneft, and several other state-run resource extractors. The Russian state’s finances really are based on the heavy taxation of energy producers, and the Kremlin would be in a world of trouble if the oil/gas spigot ever truly ran dry.

    But Russia, despite what you often hear, is more than just a gas station. It’s manufacturing and service sectors aren’t particularly competitive by world standards (very few people in North America are buying Russian cars) but they do exist.

    Using World Bank data on natural resource rents, officially defined as “the difference between the value of commodity production at world prices and total costs of production,” it’s instructive to compare Russia’s level to those in the members of OPEC, the prototypical petro states.

    Russian Economy General News: #4 - Page 18 Russia10

    As is clear from the chart, natural resource rents are a non-negligible percentage of Russian output. But these rents are nowhere near as high as in many of the world’s largest oil producers. Russian resource rents aren’t even particularly large compared to other post-Soviet states: Azerbaijan (36%), Kazakhstan (29%), and Uzbekistan (20.1%) all had proportionally larger rents.

    It’s also interesting to compare Russia’s actual GDP per capita with what it would have been if all natural resource rents were eliminated. Here, again, Russia just doesn’t appear to be particularly exceptional when compared to OPEC members.


    Russian Economy General News: #4 - Page 18 Russia11

    ndeed after adjusting for resource rents, Russia’s GDP per capita would be roughly $19,000, a level that is broadly similar to post-communist countries like Bulgaria ($15,600), Poland ($22,800), and Romania ($18,000). Russia’s adjusted GDP per capita also compares reasonably well with adjusted per capita incomes in other resource-dependent post-Soviet states like Azerbaijan ($10,500) and Kazakhstan ($15,500) or major oil producers to which it is often compared like Libya ($12,000), Venezuela ($13,500), or Iran ($9,000).

    So what is the takeaway? Is it that Russia’s economy is some kind of budding hegemon? No. The important thing to remember is that, when you compare it to those of other post-Soviet states or OPEC members, Russia’s economy is not uniquely primitive or resource dependent. We need to keep this in mind not to bolster Russians’ tender feelings but because if you formulate policy based on the assumption that Russia is a “gas station masquerading as a country” that policy won’t work very well because Russia is much more than just a gas station. Indeed, as shown above, Russia minus all of its income from oil, gas, timber, and minerals is basically a much larger version of Romania. Romania, of course, isn’t exactly an economic miracle .

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2015/04/25/russias-economy-not-just-natural-resources/
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    Post  sepheronx on Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:32 pm

    I still think Russias biggest mistake was the WTO. Because right now, with Ruble about 50/USD, they are worried that if it gets strong even after dropping interest rates low, it will affect their import substitution and exports. If that happens, they need to increase tarrifs even more and lower export tarrifs, and try to increase the number of rubles (print more) to create a deflation of value. There are tricks Russia can do to keep exports high especially in end goods, and make it more lucrative to invest in Russia while having cheaper goods, but the WTO is what really stands in the way.

    This is purely my opinion. But some think the same. They can always leave WTO and just do what they can to promote their products for export.
    max steel
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    Post  max steel on Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:48 pm

    Austin wrote:Russia's Economy: Not Just Natural Resources

    lol dude don't repost it . Just check my comment previous to yours .
    avatar
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    Post  AttilaA on Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:48 am

    Kamaz assembly started in Azerbaijan.

    http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/60990/

    Uralvagonzavod are going to supply a total of 14.000 freight wagons to Azerbaijan.

    http://tass.ru/opinions/interviews/1854503


    Last edited by AttilaA on Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:40 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  flamming_python on Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:16 am

    AttilaA wrote:Kamaz assembly started in Azerbaijan.

    http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/60990/

    Uralvagonzavod are going to supply a total of 1.400 freight wagons to Azerbaijan.

    http://tass.ru/opinions/interviews/1854503

    Good to see the ongoing restoration of Soviet-era industrial ties between Russia and Azerbaijan.

    I do know that over the last year, Azerbaijan has been raising its meat, fruit and vegetable exports to Russia, to offset the shortage caused by the cut-off of European supply.

    Trends are looking good.
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    Post  kvs on Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:32 am

    sepheronx wrote:I still think Russias biggest mistake was the WTO. Because right now, with Ruble about 50/USD, they are worried that if it gets strong even after dropping interest rates low, it will affect their import substitution and exports. If that happens, they need to increase tarrifs even more and lower export tarrifs, and try to increase the number of rubles (print more) to create a deflation of value. There are tricks Russia can do to keep exports high especially in end goods, and make it more lucrative to invest in Russia while having cheaper goods, but the WTO is what really stands in the way.

    This is purely my opinion. But some think the same. They can always leave WTO and just do what they can to promote their products for export.

    The WTO membership was to get along with the west and by default the rest of the world. Russia is not powerful enough and motivated
    enough to push for its own "new order".

    But the west can't stand Russia regardless. It wants Russia to submit. This will only lead to conflict, but the west is run by psychopaths.

    The CBR should use the strong ruble as a means to lower interest rates. Nabiullina should be targeting 60 to the dollar. This will be the
    best protection possible for Russia's developing economy. The long term interest rate should be no more than 6% and not the 8.5% it is
    now. In fact, even if they set it to 4% it would not lead to inflation. Think of it this way: Russian businesses have been financing themselves
    at rates less than 4% by borrowing abroad. But there has not been any inflation effect from this that can be identified. So why would
    there be one if they borrowed at 4% on the domestic market? The real problem is lack of sufficient ruble liquidity and the anemic banking
    industry that is anemic because it has been bypassed for western loans since essentially the beginning (after 1991).

    I think the CBR has shown some skill recently, but there is still systemic idiocy left over from the monetarist dogma era of the 1990s
    and which is still active thanks likely to monetarist believers in the CBR and the Finance Ministry. Here Putin shows that he is not
    so good in economics and relies too much on advice from people like Kudrin.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:44 am

    sepheronx wrote:I still think Russias biggest mistake was the WTO. Because right now, with Ruble about 50/USD, they are worried that if it gets strong even after dropping interest rates low, it will affect their import substitution and exports. If that happens, they need to increase tarrifs even more and lower export tarrifs, and try to increase the number of rubles (print more) to create a deflation of value. There are tricks Russia can do to keep exports high especially in end goods, and make it more lucrative to invest in Russia while having cheaper goods, but the WTO is what really stands in the way.

    This is purely my opinion. But some think the same. They can always leave WTO and just do what they can to promote their products for export.

    Actually it wasn't. Russia with the WTO has access to a string of tools that it had not previously. The RUB at 50/USD is the real rate. The 60/USD was an infamy sharks (and Russian state) were feasting on. As for the trade tarrifs, you can't do much about it. The biggest Russian imports that affect the Russian economy come from 2 areas. 1. EU- Where about 10Bln Eur is food import alone and you can't affect it because of EU CAP. 2-Asia which you can't beat on the poverty/retribution scale. The only mean is to balance the sheet with resources. And that's what's happening. Russia runs a strong positive Balance of Trade with Europe has see-saw years with China (although the imports from China have fallen the past year to the tune of 35% and exports rise, albeit at 3%) Russia needs to get that "African" niche with basic spec goods to be as durable as possible. Agriculture needs to see a priotarization. Rostselmash for instance needs to unload tractors and other entry-range products in Africa. Because when you sell machinery, you also...sell fuel. Cheap appliances are cornered by Chinese firms, Russia needs to get there as well. While the car market is as good as dead for Russian brands (no offence but there's no way the big boys are letting anyone in, see how difficult is it for Chinese brands to enter the market, and KIA/Huyndai while being a success story are so because there was an open price war back in the 80's). Which is gone now.

    So Yeah basically Russia needs to create its own protfolio by foreign acquisitions mainly. That's something Russia has, hard cash.
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:27 am

    The WTO is a joke... if it really did what it was supposed to do then there would be no need for free trade agreements between countries...
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    Post  macedonian on Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:43 am

    GarryB wrote:The WTO is a joke... if it really did what it was supposed to do then there would be no need for free trade agreements between countries...

    The WTO is a tool.
    Just like the EU is.


    And this is how the thing works:

    You take a seemingly noble idea, and you create an association based on the said noble idea. You have the control over the association since you're the one that established it. To your friends and partners you show what the association is truly supposed to do, and you make a poster of the aforementioned "noble idea" to present to the masses (or the plebs if you prefer). Then you have your association take actions that are in violation of the proclaimed goals and principles (like say sanctioning a country...I don't know Iran perhaps...or Yugoslavia)? And - presto - you have control over the things you wanted to control in the first place. The world trade in this case.

    Like I said - a tool. And a good one at that, I must say.
    Though, as nations rise (read: Russia, China...the BRICS) and nations fall (read: the west) your tool is not what it used to be...but you cling on to it, because...well your prestige is at stake here...
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:47 am

    GarryB wrote:The WTO is a joke... if it really did what it was supposed to do then there would be no need for free trade agreements between countries...

    Let us all say that the WTO isn't about Free Trade, just regulated trade.

    While Gatt, Intertex/Interfibre, and then the infamous MKAA (Marrakesh) were all about making trade easier, Free Trade agreements repurpose trade and its byproducts.
    Take the case of in process TTIP. It is a way for the US to reduce the VERY BIG trade deficit vs the EU. And in the other side it is (was) a way for the EU to deal with the real strong euro issue affecting exports.  This while both sides have basically the same kind of trade limitations among them. Subsidies, check. Sanitary codes with aimed limits, check. Volume based bottlenecks, check. In house production facilities, check.

    Now see how the TTIP deal has been dragging since the Euro has dipped and that the Shale Oil boom has be crippled by the "no flex" policy from OPEC. The deal is hitting troubled waters.

    The WTO does what it was designed to do with the end of 90's reality. Which isn't the end of 2010's reality. For instance no-one had an issue with the DSB/DSU mechanism of settlement. Because there was no roaring China and deep redistribution of cars in sight. In 1994 the capital balance as deeply in "West's" favour.

    Well now it's a little bit different, and you can't do shit when the Sino-Asians dump 50% cheaper products to the market. See how the Textile/PVC sector died in the lowlands because the Turkey and China wrecked it. That's competition, that's capitalism. That's simplification at work. The footwear sector went dead as well since the 90's.

    This is because of multi-nationals doeing their job, not especially Free Trade or the WTO. It is better to devise this as following? Is it better to have a rather outdated tool to do litigation or no tool at all?


    So we'll have to disagree, I very much like the WTO Standard, although it is badly antiquated (just like the UN). On the other side FTA's are the best sign that the bigger party or both aren't happy with the statu quo, which means (like in the case of the TTIP) that the WTO is doeing its job as a regulator.

    Edit: Mac- I see Balkan hive-mentality struck again. ;-). What the man above said.
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    Post  macedonian on Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:04 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Edit: Mac- I see Balkan hive-mentality struck again. ;-). What the man above said.

    Great minds, eh?
    And everyone calls us savages...the audacity..! Very Happy
    Being fcuked over so many times, we know a thing or two to teach the world, even though the Balkan mentality is..well let's just say they're right to stereotype us...up to a point...
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:16 pm

    macedonian wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Edit: Mac- I see Balkan hive-mentality struck again. ;-). What the man above said.

    Great minds, eh?
    And everyone calls us savages...the audacity..! Very Happy
    Being fcuked over so many times, we know a thing or two to teach the world, even though the Balkan mentality is..well let's just say they're right to stereotype us...up to a point...

    Yeah it's really bad. Like a bad case of been everywhere, know nothing ;-). Sad fact, my son wants to go back to the country, to do bizniz. My ex-wife said him ididn't raised you up for that...haha.
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    Post  macedonian on Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:33 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    macedonian wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Edit: Mac- I see Balkan hive-mentality struck again. ;-). What the man above said.

    Great minds, eh?
    And everyone calls us savages...the audacity..! Very Happy
    Being fcuked over so many times, we know a thing or two to teach the world, even though the Balkan mentality is..well let's just say they're right to stereotype us...up to a point...

    Yeah it's really bad. Like a bad case of been everywhere, know nothing ;-). Sad fact, my son wants to go back to the country, to do bizniz. My ex-wife said him ididn't raised you up for that...haha.
    clown

    Tell me about it...
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    Came back EVERY SINGLE TIME...can't live anywhere else!
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    Everyone (well GarryB): Sorry for the offtop.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:14 pm

    Well, WTO isnt helping Russia and the sanctions is another way to drop trade even if that is considered against the rules of the WTO.

    At least the Russian automotive industry is actually surviving the sanctions and lower economic reality. As well, its slowly gaining export traction again.

    Rostselsmash and the like is doing quite well and already moved onto African market, same with Avtovaz, through Egypt (Granta being built in an Egyptian auto plant and Rostselsmash opening an assembly plant in Suez Canal SEZ).
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:19 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Well, WTO isnt helping Russia and the sanctions is another way to drop trade even if that is considered against the rules of the WTO.

    At least the Russian automotive industry is actually surviving the sanctions and lower economic reality. As well, its slowly gaining export traction again.

    Rostselsmash and the like is doing quite well and already moved onto African market, same with Avtovaz, through Egypt (Granta being built in an Egyptian auto plant and Rostselsmash opening an assembly plant in Suez Canal SEZ).

    BSD is still on the sanctions case. BSD takes time, typically for countries to settle their scores in cynical way. However when the hammer drops time's over.

    Furthermore, Russia applied counter-bans and the BSD isn't rushing to flag them either. Russian Automotive if industry didn't died in Chaotic 90's, I don't see how it could die now.
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    Post  Viktor on Tue Apr 28, 2015 7:19 pm

    Nice thumbsup

    Putin gave orders 11 Small Business Development
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    Post  TR1 on Tue Apr 28, 2015 7:54 pm

    Viktor wrote:Nice  thumbsup

    Putin gave orders 11 Small Business Development

    Dictating small business from the top of the Kremlin.


    Hehehehe.

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    Post  macedonian on Tue Apr 28, 2015 8:16 pm

    TR1 wrote:
    Viktor wrote:Nice  thumbsup

    Putin gave orders 11 Small Business Development

    Dictating small business from the top of the Kremlin.


    Hehehehe.


    For once we agree (hey I'm as surprised as you are).
    Hoping to change things like these with a decree is akin to changing someone's personal appearance with a thought.
    The whole culture needs to change. And that takes time...the sore point for SME's is corruption. And corruption doesn't just disappear over night.
    Takes a lot of time and effort. But every journey begins with a single step, so I'm glad someone addresses this. It'll be an uphill journey this though.

    I still don't care much for your eloquent
    TR1 wrote:Hehehehe.
    , and your mythical one-liners though...so don't get your hopes up.

    Laughing
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Tue Apr 28, 2015 8:47 pm

    macedonian wrote:
    TR1 wrote:
    Viktor wrote:Nice  thumbsup


    Dictating small business from the top of the Kremlin.


    Hehehehe.


    For once we agree (hey I'm as surprised as you are).
    Hoping to change things like these with a decree is akin to changing someone's personal appearance with a thought.
    The whole culture needs to change. And that takes time...the sore point for SME's is corruption. And corruption doesn't just disappear over night.
    Takes a lot of time and effort. But every journey begins with a single step, so I'm glad someone addresses this. It'll be an uphill journey this though.

    I still don't care much for your eloquent
    TR1 wrote:Hehehehe.
    , and your mythical one-liners though...so don't get your hopes up.

    Laughing

    Well I don't want to piss against the wind, but that's what China did with the solar Panels hoopla. Order was given to corner and kill the market and de facto the Photovoltaic market became the Yellow River.

    If there's a will there's a way. And I agree it does look a bit pompous. But hey Obomba declaring the 2020 green zero-carb emission horizon...with a booming shale oil sector.

    Tis a race to the bottom it seems.

    -------

    https://www.russiadefence.net/viewtopic.forum?t=4623
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:02 am

    Dictating small business from the top of the Kremlin.

    So after whining that small business and middle class in Russia is neglected now they show some attention and support and still you btch... no pleasing some is there....  Razz  Smile


    Reminds me of an Australian joke... a young boy falls into the lions cage at the zoo and a young man leaps into the cage and smacks the lion on the nose scaring it long enough to save the boy... the Newspapers have the story on their front pages... Bronzed Aussie Hero Saves Boy in Zoo mishap.

    The young hero contacts the paper and tells them he is an English tourist and the paper prints a correction.... Pommy Bstard attacks harmless childs pet at zoo.
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Apr 29, 2015 4:15 pm

    Besides #7 on that list, which I am not sure what it is about, the rest sound like ground rules of government taking a few steps back in terms of regulations on small companies, which is a good thing for small companies. Number 7 gives the impression state will step in to provide assistance to the company, but that sounds far too burdonsome on the state, and may mean resources would be available in terms of gaining assistance in budgeting. My fav part is the separate bank/credit union to be set up specifically for small businesses. This is a huge step as it may become a lot easier to obtain credit to setup a business.
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    Post  Viktor on Wed Apr 29, 2015 6:51 pm

    Nice thumbsup

    JV: the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund - 8.8 trillion rubles

    Sponsored content

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