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    Russian Economy General News: #3

    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:33 am

    Austin wrote:Russia needs a forced Catharsis to wean out of dependencies from West and re-orient to BRICS and Asia which are economies that are growing in real terms and has the potential to grow for decades.

    Left to themself they wouldnt move a finger and would happily reply on Europe by selling Energy  sit tight and look pretty , Putin will keep presenting his state medal like Friends of Russia or what ever they call to Exxon Chief and BP/Total chief it would be a cozy relationship living off the cream

    Even the 2008-2009 crisis when the energy price fell down drastically did not make any changes in Russian Economy structure and they continued to drag on with too much of low efficiencies and dependencies on Energy with Feel Good Statements to chew on ...reason why they had low growth even when Oil price was over $100

    Hopefully the EU/US keeps this sanction till the end of the decade atleast , they would need these years to wean away from Western Economies to the East and improve efficiencies and cut the flab that build since 2000 when Oil started going up.

    The next sanctions would be blocking Russia from SWIFT ......Sooner the better.

    2007 - 2009 was the beginning of the major pushes for technoparks and industrial parks.  Half of them are finished and the other half are still ongoing.  To say they did nothing is a lie.  But they didn't do enough, and they didn't do it quick enough.

    Actually, now the industrial and techno parks generate pretty sums.  Some of them roughly 30 million rubles a year, some others are more.  There was no push to sell their made products outside of the country.  I think this will change as there is now being a push for more manufacturing in heavy industrial goods.  Russia is growing in exports of agricultural and construction equipment as I have said countless times.  Now they are opening up a plant for agricultural equipment in Egypt.  Actually, funny thing is, they own Canada's largest tractor making company and sell it under a different brand.  So Russia gets a lot of money on owning competitors assets outside of the country.  Relying on someone else is also not a good move, to rely on BRICS is dangerous cause really, sorry to say, I don't trust India as an example.  Reason why is they are constantly seeking US investments in their country and who knows who they will throw under the bus in order to get it.  The I in BRICS can very well be not included in the future cause I can see India more than likely dropping out of it first than anyone, as long as it benefits them and well, with Obama's visit coming up I imagine that will be in the talks.

    With Egypt possibly part of a free trade with EEU, same with Vietnam, there will be a huge market for Russian goods in these countries (already they are growing in Egypt as it seems to be the first country to get a huge portion of Russian end goods).  Regardless what you or anyone else says, Energy will always be Russia's main export, and for various reasons.  1) it is easy and cheap to extract for Russia, so it is much easier profits, 2) Russian goods will never enter the western market (one of the largest markets) since their products are never popular and there is indeed unfair competition. So Russian end goods will be limited to their own country, developing countries and allied countries. 3) Over abundance and always a demand.  Regardless of what is happening now, there will always be a huge demand for it, and will grow as more people are being popped into the world.  Only other market that will jump up for Russia to really bring in a lot more money is agricultural sector and other energy sectors.  Russian end goods, as good or bad as they may/can be, will never be really heavily exported.  Only way is if some brand in Russia decided to open plants up in Bangledesh or India or China and push for their markets.  Outside of that, wont ever happen (even if Russia pushed out products greater than their western counterparts).

    My understanding of Chile's economic model is one of self sufficiency to gain modest growth of 1% per year in its economy. It is part of the whole self sufficiency/reliant and continuous growth in domestic consumer demand. Biggest buyers of goods are the ones with jobs (clearly) and the more manufacturing, the more jobs, and each person pays for each others products (with a small % profit margin) so that it just keeps going around. Inflation grows a little every year, then when there is more currency floating in the market due to the higher inflation, they fight inflation afterwards to lower it down so that the average person can continue to spend. That was the British system for quite some time.

    Austin wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Shuvalov: the economy enters into a long and deep crisis than in 2008
    January 23. FINMARKET.RU - The situation in the Russian economy is "very heavy", the economy enters into a deep and protracted crisis than in 2008. This is not a reason to panic, but the problem can not be underestimated. The need for reform, said First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov .
    Economy goes to the bottom
    "Russia is in a very difficult situation. When asked how we relate to what happens now, I would say that outwardly we are seeing manifestations such as if it is softer than in 2008-2009. But this is only apparent ease. In fact, the depth and complexity, it seems to me that we have a year in a state when we enter into a long and complex crisis, "- said First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, speaking at a forum in Davos session on the situation in Russia ..
    According to him, the further development scenarios may be different - the situation could worsen, or, on the contrary, as in 2009, the price of Russian exports turn around and go up, but this does not negate the deep structural problems in the economy.
    The trouble of the Russian economy - the lack of modernization
    "The trouble for the Russian economy is that the modernization agenda, which appeared due to the crisis in 2008, was quickly eroded with increasing oil prices and quickly began to change in 2011-2012, many began to think that everything is fine, formally ended the crisis. But in fact there is no crisis, we have not experienced, "- said the first deputy prime minister.
    "In fact, the crisis we did not come out, and then began to move to another, even before the events in Ukraine, and it became clear - here it is a structural crisis, here he comes. Then came the summons sanctions. All this, of course, very unpleasant. But I reacted to this so - maybe it's another chance not to be missed Russia. After a series of decades, we will be able to assess whether able Russia to seize it, "- he added.
    The agenda of reforms can "disappear" if export prices start to rise, but it is possible that oil prices may continue to decline. "
    Shuvalov said that the consolidation of Russian society around the government - good condition for reform.
    "This condition (anti-Russian sanctions), which gives a very good handicap" - said Shuvalov.
    "If the Ukrainian crisis was not, and we have entered the phase of the price of oil at $ 47, or if it fell below, and she may have dropped, and there would be factors of Ukraine, sanctions and everything else, it seems to me, the situation was would be much tougher, "- he said.
    "Therefore, when such a high consolidation and stringent internal and external conditions necessary to carry out the agenda (reforms). If it were not for consolidation, this agenda was to spend twice as hard," - said Shuvalov.
    "To carry out reforms in poor external and internal conditions and low government support of the population - it is unlikely someone will. In this case, you could just flirt and carry out populist promises of social policy", - concluded the first vice-premier.
    You can create a new economy and sanctions
    In order to develop the economy needs investment, but their involvement is now difficult because of geopolitical factors, Shuvalov said. According to him, the authorities should prepare for the scenario of long-term external constraints, have gone through, for example, South Africa and Chile.
    "I do not think there is an opportunity for politicians to quickly resolve the Ukrainian crisis. I treat this as one who has to consider worst-case scenario. Investors will still be looking at the real benefits. We have the experience, both in South Africa sanctions developed in difficult conditions developed in Chile. Is it possible to create a modern economic system with political difficulties? The answer is - it is possible "- Shuvalov said.

    Good read actually.  Although, Shuvolov thinks best economic models to look at when you are sanctioned and access to foreign credit is gone, is South Africa and Chile's model.  Then it occurred to me, back in the 70's during the Angolan Bush war, South Africa had to develop its own defense and other industries when they were sanctioned by US and the rest of the world pretty much.  They not only managed to develop their own industry, but also managed to build even Nukes.  I have to say, it was quite impressive really.  US likes to think their sanctions worked against South Africa, but all it did was make the rich flee the country with their wealth and the rest of the country hold together for a very long time.  But in the end, when they decided to end the apartheid, they did it very fast rather than not easing it through (much like the fall of communism) and it created chaos.

    I am not familiar with sanctions against Chile in the past (dating somewhere in the 70's) but I am familiar with Iran's, and I would say their economic model is a good one to also look into as well (this is also prime opportunity to sign a free trade agreement with Iran and boost trade with them).

    I dont know what model Chile and South Africa adopted but it looks like the best bet for Russia is to integrate with BRICS economies and Asian economies.

    Western economies should be transactional at best like sell Oil take money and bye bye.

    It better to dump 10-20 % of USD/Euro and keep Renminbi and buy more Gold.

    Make Gold Reserve about 30-35 % of total Forex , Renminbi about 20-25 %.

    Reduce propotianately USD and Euro mostly USD.

    Like I said Russia needs a forced catharisis.

    Sanctions would be that.

    Ukelele or whatever his name is stated they are dumping $88B of USD treasury bonds for Rubles to act as liquidity to the local banks.  That would essentially be all of their USD FOREX gone.  I guess rest of it will come from current deals of its export of oil/gas.  Outside of that, it is essentially the dump of USD.  I think increasing amount of Renminbi is good.  But Gold and other currencies may be good, like Vietnams currency, or Iran's currency.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:46 am

    sepheronx wrote:Then it occurred to me, back in the 70's during the Angolan Bush war, South Africa had to develop its own defense and other industries when they were sanctioned by US and the rest of the world pretty much.  They not only managed to develop their own industry, but also managed to build even Nukes.  I have to say, it was quite impressive really.
     


    Apartheid South Africa didn't develop it's arms industry by itself, the Israeli's were illegally supplying Apartheid South Africa with weapon technology including nuclear weapons:

    Russian Economy General News: #3 - Page 35 The-secret-military-agree-006

    Revealed: how Israel offered to sell South Africa nuclear weapons

    Brothers in arms - Israel's secret pact with Pretoria


    sepheronx wrote: US likes to think their sanctions worked against South Africa, but all it did was make the rich flee the country with their wealth and the rest of the country hold together for a very long time.

    ...Of course the sanctions didn't work, because they were a shame to begin with. U.S. politicians were falsely proclaiming that they opposed Apartheid South Africa out in the open (for obvious reasons), but U.S. intelligence agencies were actually propping up and helping Apartheid South Africa through out the Cold War. It was the Cuban and Soviet support for the rebellion that weakened and eventually defeated the Apartheid regime, while CIA on the other hand helped capture and imprison Nelson Mandela at the behest of the Apartheid govt:

    Looking Back At Mandela’s CIA Assisted 1962 Arrest
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:40 am

    Apartheid South Africa didn't develop it's arms industry by itself, the Israeli's were illegally supplying Apartheid South Africa with weapon technology including nuclear weapons:

    Bit of an open joke really... look at the R4 assault rifle of South Africa... Galil anyone?
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    Post  kvs on Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:53 am

    I think Russia has much more capacity than South Africa for internal development and diversification. It does not need assistance
    from anyone. Also, compared to the USSR era the current economic system is much better suited for adaptation and development
    since there is none of the smothering, incompetent bureaucracy overseeing the production of every nut and bolt. I will take IC fabrication
    as an example. The USSR could never get its shit together and could be easily sabotaged (as when their one and only fabrication
    facility in Leningrad mysteriously burned down). Russia can manufacture 65 nm resolution ICs today. It can get to 22 nm I have
    no doubt.

    What we are seeing from the USA and its EU vassals is panic in the face of the fact that Russia is rising and rapidly. They
    are trying to knock it down before they can no longer do so. But the twits have missed the boat. They should have been
    staging their current assault back in 2004.
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    Post  kvs on Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:58 am

    GarryB wrote:
    The previous strategy to acquire distribution networks deep in EU markets. And while the report's authors are more cautious, this was also in part politically motivated. It was meant to exert Russian political power as much as to make profits for Gazprom, which is one reason the European Union drew up regulations to obstruct it.

    What bullshit.

    In all the decades the Soviets and then Russians supplied Europe with gas how many times have they threatened supplies as political leverage?

    the only interruption to regular supplies was not when the friendly NATO friends bombed Serbia or invaded Libya or attacked a multitude of other countries friendly to Russia, or even when US Stooge Georgia murdered Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia... no, the only interruptions was when bankrupt Ukraine couldn't pay and stole gas from Europe... gee I wonder why the Soviets and Russians wanted direct control of the pipelines... it clearly was not political... it was economic.

    but no, lets write an article that ignores such facts and declare the change by Russia to be a victory for Europe...  Rolling Eyes

    I am sure Turkey will sell them gas at a reasonable rate... if they let them join the EU... I rather suspect the Ukraine will be an amature compared with a Turkey told it is still not ready to join the EU...  russia

    I hope Turkey sodomizes the EU. The EU badly deserves it.

    As for the natural gas cut off, Russia was not responsible in the only two cases in 2006 and 2009. It was Yuschenko who cut off the flow
    both times. Gazprom had an independent Swiss firm monitoring the valves to confirm this. But of course the western media ran with the whole
    Russian gas blackmail BS. Like it is now all concerned about civilians dying in Mariupol when it did not even bother to cover the thousands of
    deaths due to Kiev regime shelling since last April.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:42 am

    kvs wrote:I think Russia has much more capacity than South Africa for internal development and diversification.   It does not need assistance
    from anyone.   Also, compared to the USSR era the current economic system is much better suited for adaptation and development
    since there is none of the smothering, incompetent bureaucracy overseeing the production of every nut and bolt.   I will take IC fabrication
    as an example.   The USSR could never get its shit together and could be easily sabotaged (as when their one and only fabrication
    facility in Leningrad mysteriously burned down).   Russia can manufacture 65 nm resolution ICs today.   It can get to 22 nm I have
    no doubt.  

    What we are seeing from the USA and its EU vassals is panic in the face of the fact that Russia is rising and rapidly.   They
    are trying to knock it down before they can no longer do so.   But the twits have missed the boat.   They should have been
    staging their current assault back in 2004.

    I think it is Rusnano and a dutch company that has either now or still working on the production of lithography equipment in Russia that goes as low as 10nm, meaning Russian fabs could make processors around 20nm.

    And while the state will now be engaging more in the economy of Russia as a whole, it will be for supporting state run and private companies. Already with the tax laws is promoting small/medium private companies and agricultural development. Rostec though, even if a state controlled not for profit company, they sure are doing a good job in Russias tech development and sales. Hopefully though, Russia aims at privatizing many companies in order to promote internal competition.
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    Post  Kyo on Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:23 pm

    Russians don't associate sanctions with Putin, rather attack on Russia: Shuvalov

    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:28 pm

    For KVS

    http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20141124005293/en/SPTS-Technologies’-Versalis-fxP-Multi-Technology-System-Selected#.VMUnZHODTqB

    This is latest news on mapper lithography manufacturing in Moscow. From Nov last year.
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    Post  flamming_python on Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:16 pm

    Austin wrote:Russia needs a forced Catharsis to wean out of dependencies from West and re-orient to BRICS and Asia which are economies that are growing in real terms and has the potential to grow for decades.

    Left to themself they wouldnt move a finger and would happily reply on Europe by selling Energy  sit tight and look pretty , Putin will keep presenting his state medal like Friends of Russia or what ever they call to Exxon Chief and BP/Total chief it would be a cozy relationship living off the cream

    Even the 2008-2009 crisis when the energy price fell down drastically did not make any changes in Russian Economy structure and they continued to drag on with too much of low efficiencies and dependencies on Energy with Feel Good Statements to chew on ...reason why they had low growth even when Oil price was over $100

    Hopefully the EU/US keeps this sanction till the end of the decade atleast , they would need these years to wean away from Western Economies to the East and improve efficiencies and cut the flab that build since 2000 when Oil started going up.

    The next sanctions would be blocking Russia from SWIFT ......Sooner the better.

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    Post  Viktor on Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:13 pm

    Kyo wrote:Russians don't associate sanctions with Putin, rather attack on Russia: Shuvalov


    Yes, the thing is that Russian people consider any attack coming from any foreign country against their president, government, country etc (any aspect of Russian statehood)

    as an attack against their country no matter what Russian themselves think about them.

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    Post  Werewolf on Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:15 pm

    Well that represents the reality that Russia is under Attack by anglo-saxon and zionistic politics in a state where they clearly have lost the monopoly in geopolitics so they go mad and attack russia they even have declared RT equal to ISIS which on the other hand is US founded and funded.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:42 pm

    Dollar keep overvaluing against everybody else. Either they will go for a new QE either they will have to shut down their very last remnants of their industrial complex.
    They already face a trade deficit more adequate to third world countries.
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    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:27 am

    Hannibal Barca wrote:Dollar keep overvaluing against everybody else. Either they will go for a new QE either they will have to shut down their very last remnants of their industrial complex.
    They already face a trade deficit more adequate to third world countries.

    Atleast I have heard Peter Schiff stating that QE 4 is coming and then the game is up what ever that means
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    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:29 am

    Looks like more sanctions are coming from West

    U.S., Europe Threaten New Sanctions Against Moscow

    he EU has already introduced restrictions on trade, defense and energy links with Russia and has targeted dozens of Russian officials and separatist leaders with a freeze on assets and travel restrictions.

    Among the steps the EU and U.S. could take is widening the net of companies frozen out of Western financial markets to include more state-run firms or private companies. They could also ban exports of technology related to the gas industry in addition to measures against Russia’s oil sector.


    One measure that has been discussed previously is whether to seek to knock Russia off the so-called Swift network, which is key to making global financial transactions. In the past, diplomats have said that would likely be a last resort.
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    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:30 am

    Russian Sanctions Might Be Obama’s Greatest Blunder
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    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 26, 2015 7:25 am

    Looking at Barack statement in India and the EU chief and now the Polish president.

    The anti-Russian sanction will further be tightned on Jan 29.

    I think Russia is in a situation where it can neither win or loose , All Ukr has to do is to bomb its own civilian and they EU/US will end up blaming the Russians by default and increase the sanctions.

    Its high time now Russia too starts sanctionining EU/US beyond agricultural sanction its got nothing to loose.
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    Post  Nikander on Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:36 am


    "The deputy PM argued against the position of former Russian Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin who thinks current military expenditure is excessive. According to Rogozin, Russia’s weapons industry has huge prospectives and will bring profits. The minister also said that in his view Kudrin’s activities in the government have brought the country to the current dependent position, and it’s Kudrin who bears the blame for the difficulties in Russian industry, including the military arm"

    Rogozin on Kudrin, and I agree with him completely.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:38 am

    Austin wrote:Looking at Barack statement in India and the EU chief and now the Polish president.

    The anti-Russian sanction will further be tightned on Jan 29.

    I think Russia is in a situation where it can neither win or loose , All Ukr has to do is to bomb its own civilian and they EU/US will end up blaming the Russians by default and increase the sanctions.

    Its high time now Russia too starts sanctionining EU/US beyond agricultural sanction its got nothing to loose.

    Agreed. They can do it by forcing all gas and oil payments in Rubles. Increase surge charge for transportation costs, etc. Then say that no debt payments will be made, all debt frozen till sanctions are lifted. Other than that, let it be. Funny they said they wouls limit tech for oil and gas to Russia.... they already did that if they forgot. As well, punishing Russias private firms goes against WTO, so Russia can sue them, especially if they demand evidence of Russian forces in E.Ukraine.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:42 am

    Nikander wrote:
    "The deputy PM argued against the position of former Russian Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin who thinks current military expenditure is excessive. According to Rogozin, Russia’s weapons industry has huge prospectives and will bring profits. The minister also said that in his view Kudrin’s activities in the government have brought the country to the current dependent position, and it’s Kudrin who bears the blame for the difficulties in Russian industry, including the military arm"

    Rogozin on Kudrin, and I agree with him completely.

    This is what I was saying to Vann when he was praising Kudrin, and to Flaming and rest. Kudrin was one of the worst economic ministers. Cut defense spending now means less work and profits for companies, then layoffs happen so more unemployed workers so more social spending needed. Other industries get hit too, like the metal companies, construction, etc if they drop spending. The sap programs are best bets always. Going back to 5 year plans may be a good idea.
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    Post  Viktor on Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:30 pm

    Russia needs to get rid of its debt ...

    Banks and companies of the Russian Federation in 2015 to pay $ 128.2 billion of foreign debts


    Shipbuilding in Russia will hopefully rise

    Russia is planning for 5 years to double the production of fish

    Effects of deals put in place

    Iranian media: trade turnover between Iran and Russia will grow this year by 10-15%

    and this is a very important problem that needs to be addressed

    Dollar 40

    As banks have responded to the invitation of the Central Bank of salvation currency mortgage holders

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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:10 pm

    Viktor wrote:Russia needs to get rid of its debt ...

    Banks and companies of the Russian Federation in 2015 to pay $ 128.2 billion of foreign debts


    Shipbuilding in Russia will hopefully rise

    Russia is planning for 5 years to double the production of fish

    Effects of deals put in place

    Iranian media: trade turnover between Iran and Russia will grow this year by 10-15%

    and this is a very important problem that needs to be addressed

    Dollar 40

    As banks have responded to the invitation of the Central Bank of salvation currency mortgage holders


    Their own faults. Why are mortgages, homes made in Russia, sold in Rubles and mortgage in Rubles, have to do with ones currency value on international market? It is like the Polish who got mortgages in Swiss Francs and now crying about it.

    As well, the debt is being paid off even if I dont think they should, till sanctions lifted. But Russia is being an honest market player it seems.


    Last edited by sepheronx on Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:23 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : because it didnt make sense.)
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    Post  Viktor on Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:54 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Their own faults. Why are mortgages, homes made in Russia, sold in Rubles and mortgage in Rubles, have to do with ones currency value on international market? It is like the Polish who got mortgages in Swiss Francs and now crying about it.

    As well, the debt is being paid off even if I dont think they should, till sanctions lifted. But Russia is being an honest market player it seems.

    This is about the people not the banks. You can not leave the people on the streets just because there was no laws protecting them from currency fluctuation.

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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:03 pm

    Viktor wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Their own faults. Why are mortgages, homes made in Russia, sold in Rubles and mortgage in Rubles, have to do with ones currency value on international market? It is like the Polish who got mortgages in Swiss Francs and now crying about it.

    As well, the debt is being paid off even if I dont think they should, till sanctions lifted. But Russia is being an honest market player it seems.

    This is about the people not the banks. You can not leave the people on the streets just because there was no laws protecting them from currency fluctuation.


    So the banks need to be heald accountable. Same with central bank. First question in court should be "why are Russian homes, with Russian materials on Russian land, priced in Rubles, has anything to do with currency exchange?". Many should be sentenced to life in prison over this.
    Viktor
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    Post  Viktor on Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:24 pm

    sepheronx wrote:So the banks need to be heald accountable. Same with central bank. First question in court should be "why are Russian homes, with Russian materials on Russian land, priced in Rubles, has anything to do with currency exchange?". Many should be sentenced to life in prison over this.

    Completely agree. Banks can and should fall and be held accountable just like everyone else.

    George1
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    Post  George1 on Mon Jan 26, 2015 7:24 pm

    Russian government to endorse anti-crisis plan Tuesday — Putin

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