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    Russian Economy General News: #3

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    Vann7

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    Post  Vann7 on Tue Dec 23, 2014 5:47 am

    sepheronx wrote:I am going to say that is anyone surprised about what Kudrin said? I have beeb saying it for a long time already, the guy was the worst economic minister. He simply did nothing during his term. He is butt hurt because he was let go.

    That said, all of his predictions never came true and always went on the news every week to revise his predictions so that after making hundreds of predictions, one would end up "true". The guy is a nobody and is simply pandering to liberalist economic ideas from US.

    Vann at first didnt believe me. Now he is spouting off about it. Simply throw the guy in jail.

    While the US is definately economically screwed, everyone says its "all right". In Russia, when things are getting tough, people cry hard. Wonder why.


    Unfortunately you are right..

    Because i don't think he is an idiot. When he began to compare Russia with other BRICS members ,
    and use it as an example of "how you can be prosperous and without sanctions" ,i wanted to slap his face.
    As if other BRICS nations were located in Europe. The western anglozionist elite simply cannot allow Russia and Europe to become close allies..because something like that will be the end of NATO and US ofence shield ,that will be like winning the game with a homerun with bases loaded for Putin. and this is the real reason of the sanctions and it have nothing to do with Ukraine or Crimea ,but simply with splitting Europe from Russia as much as possible. If nothing happened in Ukraine ,Victoria nuland will have done the euromaidan in Georgia and do exactly the same script that they did in Ukraine.. ie.. 1) Rusophobics comes to power 2)start bombing ethnic Russians in south ossetia 3)to provoke Russia to invade 4) and for US senate and congress justify the isolation of Russia.

    Probably kudrin is racist or cannot imagine Russia becoming very close to China.. is suspicious how he did not mention china powerful economy and their readyness to help Russia.

    For me.. This is a Huge opportunity for Russia to become 100% self sufficient.. which is the best thing in all this.
    It will slow down their economy for couple of years but also will push them to really Compete with USA
    like never they have done before.. Not only in space or its military technology. but also in modern technology
    for business use,for health use and for entertainment. Smile Russia need to stop spending in Nukes and fully concentrate in things that can get the world attention in great things they do and help attract countries to the Russian orbit and their trade block..

    1)Accelerate their space program.. moon and mars travels with rovers not in 2030 but in 2016-2017
    2)Triple the budget of Russia space program and have as Goals of a moon manned landing by 2020 with the construction of a base.
    3)Compete with Intel , Microsft and Apple. what they sell. (yotaphone is a really good start)
    4)heavily promote the Russian movie industry and gaming industry.

    IF Russia government can do that ,in less than a decade it will have most of Europe on its orbit and without firing a single shot , the crimean way.. simply ,fully embraced and supported.

    As a bonus sending unmanned rovers to Saturn and Jupiter moons before NASA with live videos.(a moon base too) that will truly steal the show and have everyone cheering Russia for months and years people discussing about how developed is Russia.. this will create a massive interest in people to know more about the modern Russia.. and Tourism will skyrocket to know more about Russia ,and also attract the best students in the world to move to Russia and help with their industry.
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    Austin

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    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 23, 2014 6:15 am

    Kudrin is doing a great disservice to his country by speaking doom & gloom when Russia is in midst of crisis and trying to cope up with it.

    As long as he is in official position he should reserve his personal comment on such matter ...he certainly has no crystal ball to look into the future.

    But his pessimistic view affects the market and may be even common people in such difficult time.

    I think he is eternally pessimistic on Russia or just that him getting thrown unceremoniously as finance minister after speaking bad about Medvedev in US ! he has not been able to get over the bitterness and tries to get back with doom gloom stories.

    Putin should just tell him to shut up or leave his official position and keep ranting
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    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 23, 2014 6:16 am

    Even though ATM Russia does not need any help some good gesture by Chinese

    "Isolated"? China Officially Offers Help To "Irreplaceable Strategic Partner" Russia
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:17 am

    Cause he isn't omnipotent? Or maybe because he is not a dictator? And some people can't be touched too(they have friends and influence, maybe it works for Kudrin too).

    Exactly... being a prick is not a crime... what would they have him arrested for?

    Even though ATM Russia does not need any help some good gesture by Chinese

    Good to see support from Russias allies.

    I suspect one reason that China wants to support Russia is because they know that if Russia is dismembered and crushed that they are next... likely followed by India.

    But India is a democracy... communist or democratic is irrelevant... this is about threats to US hegemony and China, India and Russia are not doing as they are told.
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    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 23, 2014 10:59 am

    kvs or any one can tell me

    Why cant Rouble be pegged against Yuan & Gold rather then the current USD/Euro standard ?

    Also how much per year does Russia earn on Forex and if the current low oil price would mean very low forex to earn ?
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    Post  flamming_python on Tue Dec 23, 2014 2:04 pm

    Here's where the list's at right now; haven't been able to work on it for the last few days:
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dkF394gk4BNHUxYLvIFbVpVwfqLKorGmYb45uwhNaOE/edit?usp=sharing

    The rouble has recovered a lot of its losses but clearly its still fluctuating, so just pick the right moment, if you want to order anything.

    Anyway, as seen by the list; there's a looooooooong way to go. Believe me this is just the tip of the iceberg. And the chances of me finishing it all by myself are pretty slim.
    So anyone who wants to help out - send me a PM; and I'll send you a link you can use to edit the doc.

    If you're gonna be editing though; a few pointers:

    1. Keep things organized; as you can see there are 3 lists - one for Russian & foreign companies producing in Russia, one for Russian companies producing abroad, and another one which contains a link to every company mentioned in the other two lists; itself divided into Russian and foreign companies. Make an entry in one of the first two lists and then link the company using the same name in the final list, so people can find it quickly.

    2. Before adding a company's name to one of the product categories - try and find out if those products are made abroad or in Russia, and add the company to the respective list. If you can't find out (*company name* где производят typed in google usually does the trick), then make an educated guess based on what you can find out about the company (does it have any production facilities or own any factories in Russia; what do those facilities produce? Does it partner or subcontract out to anyone else in Russia and who?). If still in doubt - then give it your best guess and put a question mark in brackets after the company name at the respective product category.

    3. When you find a company's website, browse it thoroughly, try and glean all the goodies, that's to say any sort of civil production for end-consumers it might get up to. Especially for defense industry companies; you'll find that they often make some civilian goods too; e.g. a PAK-FA Radar System manufacturer also happens to make Electric Cooktops but you won't know unless you look around the site.

    4. Favour linking to the English-language versions of company sites; unless they're completely barren of any information and don't have any details on the products of the company; in which case just link to the Russian version - people are smart enough to use Google Translate. If in doubt you can always give two or more links.

    5. I have a few web 'directories' I'm slogging through. One listing a crap load of Russian toy/kids furniture/baby food/etc... manufacturers, and another listing all the textile mills, clothes manufacturers, light industry in general in the vicinity of Moscow. Let me know if you want to start processing some of those - or if you have your own ones you want to share
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    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 23, 2014 3:04 pm

    Russian companies’ $120 billion foreign debt payments to exert pressure on ruble in 2015
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Tue Dec 23, 2014 4:11 pm

    Austin wrote:kvs or any one can tell me

    Why cant Rouble be pegged against Yuan & Gold rather then the current USD/Euro standard ?

    Also how much per year does Russia earn on Forex and if the current low oil price would mean very low forex to earn ?

    The Rouble should never be pegged to Gold, due to the fact that it would cause a deflationary crash. The British caused quite a few deflationary crashes in their country because they attempted to go back to a 'Gold standard' on several occasions. The Rouble being pegged to the Yuan on the other hand would be a great idea due to the fact that the Yuan still has capital and exchange controls, and is a de facto 'island of stability' in a 'sea of chaos' of rampant currency speculation (led by George Soros no less), US hedge funds failed miserably to attack the Yuan. It can also act as a stabilizing factor in Russian and China relations. If it happens the likenesses of a 'Great Siberian War of 2030' would seem less and less likely.
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    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 23, 2014 4:18 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Austin wrote:kvs or any one can tell me

    Why cant Rouble be pegged against Yuan & Gold rather then the current USD/Euro standard ?

    Also how much per year does Russia earn on Forex and if the current low oil price would mean very low forex to earn ?

    The Rouble should never be pegged to Gold, due to the fact that it would cause a deflationary crash. The British caused quite a few deflationary crashes in their country because they attempted to go back to a 'Gold standard' on several occasions. The Rouble being pegged to the Yuan on the other hand would be a great idea due to the fact that the Yuan still has capital and exchange controls, and is a de facto 'island of stability' in a 'sea of chaos' of rampant currency speculation (led by George Soros no less), US hedge funds failed miserably to attack the Yuan. It can also act as a stabilizing factor in Russian and China relations. If it happens the likenesses of a 'Great Siberian War of 2030' would seem less and less likely.

    So why arnt the Russians doing it then say why not declare by end of 2015 Rouble will be pegged against Yuan......whats stopping them do this ?
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 23, 2014 5:35 pm

    Austin wrote:Russian companies’ $120 billion foreign debt payments to exert pressure on ruble in 2015

    Edit: just noticed it said companies debt. They need to clarify this a bit more. So possibly ignore the comment below (wasnt aimed at you anyway).

    Once again, it isnt $120B debt. State debt is around $15B. Private debt is private debt. If Russia sets currency control and prevents flight of ruble to usd/euro, then either these companies pay their debt in rubles to CB then they convert it, or go bust. If they go bust, then they will probably expect their stocks will be eaten up by the federal government. Like I said before, it is already happening.

    Ruble will face pressure on other methods. Oil decreasing and flight of Ruble. If government has more of a backbone, then this is easily avoidable.

    Maybe the CB should buy up all private debt, then default. Yeah, they wont get future western loans or make it hard to, due to bad credit rating, but they dont get access to the credit anyway. This was mentioned on another Russian news as an option. So companies who have $600B debt, wont have to pay it and wont be in debt so if a default occures, it will simply damage western banks and Russian credit rating (who cares).
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 23, 2014 5:50 pm

    Austin wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Austin wrote:kvs or any one can tell me

    Why cant Rouble be pegged against Yuan & Gold rather then the current USD/Euro standard ?

    Also how much per year does Russia earn on Forex and if the current low oil price would mean very low forex to earn ?

    The Rouble should never be pegged to Gold, due to the fact that it would cause a deflationary crash. The British caused quite a few deflationary crashes in their country because they attempted to go back to a 'Gold standard' on several occasions. The Rouble being pegged to the Yuan on the other hand would be a great idea due to the fact that the Yuan still has capital and exchange controls, and is a de facto 'island of stability' in a 'sea of chaos' of rampant currency speculation (led by George Soros no less), US hedge funds failed miserably to attack the Yuan. It can also act as a stabilizing factor in Russian and China relations. If it happens the likenesses of a 'Great Siberian War of 2030' would seem less and less likely.

    So why arnt the Russians doing it then say why not declare by end of 2015 Rouble will be pegged against Yuan......whats stopping them do this ?

    Value of oil technically. As mentioned before, Russias main export is indeed Oil and Gas. Since majority of industrial goods and heavy manufacturing is in Russia, they can survive off of a heavily devalued currency, especially since their budget is in Rubles. They have more rubles than before. Now, due to massive slow down in imports, they have massive budget surplus. But inflation is going ip. Well, a devalued ruble will meam companies and agencies with forex of stronger currencies will be able to open up new production lines that meet part way for the demand of the imports (they will still have to import), overall reducing overhead and having more money. But problem is now Russian companies are charging more for Russian made products, so more competition is needed.

    In China, workers are paid horribly compared to Russians. But there are so many different companies in China making knockoffs and or other brand goods for real cheap. So it keeps inflation down. Yuan ties directly to usd somewhat is to keep their currency value low in order to keep getting people to export their industries to China. Japan is trying to collapse their currency so they can reindustrialize Japan (somewhat working for japan in terms of devaluing currency).

    Technically, floating the ruble allows it to keep at pace of oil and gas so they can make more rubles. But it also seems to have opened itself to hedge attacks from Soros which kept it even more devalued than needed. Also, as mentioned in discussion on sdelanounas chat board, a lot of greedy russian companies are increasing prices by quite a bit, even though their production is in Russia, no imported, and there is no slump in production and no massive increase in demand. Sinply becayse the market is failing to curb the people who are using this to their advantage and screwing average person as forex has nothing to do with goods made within your country and with your own goods. Japanese car manufacturers in Russia already stated there is going to be no price increases on their Russian products, and they still import parts for these cars from Japan. So there is a lot of foul play in domestic market.
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    Post  kvs on Wed Dec 24, 2014 12:23 am

    Austin wrote:kvs or any one can tell me

    Why cant Rouble be pegged against Yuan & Gold rather then the current USD/Euro standard ?

    Also how much per year does Russia earn on Forex and if the current low oil price would mean very low forex to earn ?

    Pegging is not consistent with a free floating currency exchange. It means CBR interventions of all sorts. Since the
    ruble is now officially and truly a floating currency there is no point in talking about pegging to anything.



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    Post  Cyberspec on Wed Dec 24, 2014 2:29 am

    kvs wrote:Pegging is not consistent with a free floating currency exchange.   It means CBR interventions of all sorts.   Since the
    ruble is now officially and truly a floating currency there is no point in talking about pegging to anything.

    Exactly Exclamation

    The Keizer report from a few days ago is pretty good regarding the Ruble and what the Russian government is playing at....it's a an important milestone in Russian economic history.



    As for Kudrin, he's a IMF stooge in Russia....he's job is to push their line within Russia.

    There was some talk that he was personally betting against the Ruble during the coordinated attack on it. It has since recovered about 30% of the losses. Hopefully Kudrin also lost his bets
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    Post  Werewolf on Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:23 am

    Cyberspec wrote:
    kvs wrote:Pegging is not consistent with a free floating currency exchange.   It means CBR interventions of all sorts.   Since the
    ruble is now officially and truly a floating currency there is no point in talking about pegging to anything.

    Exactly Exclamation

    The Keizer report from a few days ago is pretty good regarding the Ruble and what the Russian government is playing at....it's a an important milestone in Russian economic history.



    As for Kudrin, he's a IMF stooge in Russia....he's job is to push their line within Russia.

    There was some talk that he was personally betting against the Ruble during the coordinated attack on it. It has since recovered about 30% of the losses. Hopefully Kudrin also lost his bets

    You spelled head wrong.
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    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 24, 2014 9:54 am

    Should give an idea how MIC is driving Russian Economy

    "Collapsing military programs will result in increased costs for the state"
    http://vpk.name/news/123793_svertyivanie_voennyih_programm_obernetsya_dlya_gosudarstva_povyishennyimi_zatratami.html


    Deputy Defense Minister Tatyana Shevtsova on the financing of the Ministry of Defense

    Budget of the Ministry of Defence in 2015 remains one of the largest - the item "National Defense" department will receive 3.3 trillion rubles. What threatens its reduction and why military expenditure benefit not only the military, Deputy Defense Minister of Finance Tatyana Shevtsova told the "Kommersant" Ivan Safronov.

    - How real is the sequestration of the defense budget?


    - Budget Host in difficult conditions, part of the cost of government programs really was sequestered, but the article "National Defense" is not affected, although many experts insisted on this. I think that calls for a reduction in military spending is now fundamentally wrong.

    - What are the main financial parameters you have planned for 2015?


    - On defense spending plans to spend 3.3 trillion rubles., That is 4.2% of the gross domestic product of the country. Can not be regarded defense spending just as the cost of maintaining the army. The bulk of these costs - more than 65% - will be directed to re-Army and Navy, as well as for the modernization of defense enterprises.

    It is thanks to the defense budget over the next decade, the industry will be able to upgrade the industrial base, to create skilled jobs. Today, the industry employs more than 4 thousand. Companies, one way or another involved in the production of military goods, of which 1,339 companies included in the single register of DIC, form the basis of the domestic industry, and about 1 tys.- work with them in collaboration, the rest also supply materials and components. The share of revenue in the first group of GDP rose from 5.5% in 2009 to 9% in 2013. The total contribution to GDP as the entire industry in the past year can be estimated at 14-15%. Do not forget that on the defense industry employs more than 2 million people, along with their families this would be about 5 million - the presence of enterprises of our order guarantees workers a stable high-paying job, and hence wealth in families.

    - Still talking about the need to draw in their military expenditures do not cease.


    - In our view, touch the military expenditure is not worth it. We must understand that we are not just modernizing the army and navy, and in fact derive from their serious condition in which they were at the time when the armed forces are constantly underfunded and delivery of new weapons were made in very limited quantities. This objective long-term process, which has already spent significant financial resources, requires a logical conclusion. Any reduction of budget expenditures in funding state armaments program will lead to a significant loss of the federal budget.

    - There are political reasons for increased conservation funding of defense programs?


    - Today is clearly seen increasing military threats to Russia. This is reflected in the increased military activity of NATO, increasing the fighting strength of the alliance's troops along the border with Russia, gradually building the capacity of a missile defense system, secretive development of hypersonic shock and other weapons. All this points to the need to strengthen the country's defense, the Defense Ministry can not not respond to this. One of the tasks of the West is to undermine the modernization of the armed forces, or to make us really roll it, or to adjust the maximum scheduled performance towards their reduction. And if this is done, it will be possible to state that they have achieved their goals. I firmly believe that the task of creating modern armed forces can not be postponed. We will lose the pace, and the next time again return to the modernization of the army and navy, costs a lot more resources. Savings from clotting military programs actually will result in higher costs for the state.

    - The growth of military spending does not harm the economy as a whole?

    - In addition to aspects of the country's defense, there is also the economic effect. Investing in the defense industry stimulates various sectors of our economy. When broken down by industry costs the Ministry of Defense of the economy, we see that the state defense order affects nearly every industry - the aerospace, aviation, shipbuilding, automotive industry, as well as education, construction and healthcare. In practice, the increase in production of defense enterprises generates the demand for metals, energy, transport services and so on, which in turn leads to an increase in production, which after a certain period of time show a greater demand for the products of other industries already in accordance with its own cost structure .

    In addition to the direct effect of increasing the gross production of the Russian defense industry due to the increase in purchases of weapons, military and special equipment, as well as military R & D funding for high-tech industries generates indirect multiplier effect procurement and investment activities under the state armaments program until 2025. It is currently being developed and should be approved by the end of 2015.

    Historical experience shows that the basis of economic power, technological and defense security of our country during the Soviet era was the scientific-industrial complex, formed as a result of huge efforts to industrialise the country's economic structure. A special role here has always belonged to the defense complex, which develops priority compared with the civil sector of the economy, allowing to equip defense plants, research institutes and design new high-performance scientific and industrial equipment, implement and master the latest technology for military and civil purposes, to create a unique scientific school. Scientific and technical achievements DIC were the main source of technological innovation in the civilian sector. All this has allowed to form a powerful scientific and technological infrastructure, which gave the opportunity to create advanced weapons systems, still in demand and competitive on the international arms markets.

    - But the civilian sector now wants to develop not only due to military programs.


    - I think that today in opposition to address the socio-economic development and military security is incorrect, because now they are integrated into a single unit: the same United Aircraft Corporation successfully develops and manufactures military aircraft series "Su" and produces civilian aircraft Sukhoi Superjet. Already proved that participation in the state defense order has a positive impact on the regions with a high proportion of the defense industry in the gross regional product. Maintaining military spending at 4% of GDP, which is characteristic for most countries, and the establishment of chain transfer of military technology to the civilian sector is key to economic growth.

    Ivan Safronov
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    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 24, 2014 10:05 am

    Another tool in Economic Warfare by West , Likely Russia would be downgraded to Junk Status by S&P and Moody.

    S&P places Russia’s ratings on CreditWatch negative

    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/768858

    Moody’s downgrades Gazprom’s foreign currency rating


    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/768862
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    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 24, 2014 10:06 am

    How will it impact the economy and Russian bond and Companies that would be rated to Junk Status ?

    More currency outflow and pressure on Rouble ?
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed Dec 24, 2014 10:46 am

    Austin wrote:Another tool in Economic Warfare by West , Likely Russia would be downgraded to Junk Status  by S&P and Moody.

    S&P places Russia’s ratings on CreditWatch negative

    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/768858

    Moody’s downgrades Gazprom’s foreign currency rating


    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/768862

    Inconsequential, Russia's most important economic partners (China and India) are likely going to rely on a BRICS ratings agency, and other fairly large pro-Russia countries such as Brazil and Indonesia will do business with Russia regardless of any politicized discredited Western ratings agency (such as Standard & Poors) claims.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:10 am

    It is funny how in occupied Greece they keep repeating the downgrade in the media since the morning.
    They took the order from the local Zionist boss and they have to announce the new act of war in the masses every half an hour.
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    Post  lulldapull on Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:14 pm

    Looks like China has to bail out Russia. The Chinese are providing funds already before Russia starts defaulting and there is a run on the banks.
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    Post  Kimppis on Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:32 pm

    Austin wrote:Should give an idea how MIC is driving Russian Economy

    "Collapsing military programs will result in increased costs for the state"

    I can't wait to see articles in the western media celebrating how Russian military spending has collapsed. "Evil Putin's devious plan has been foiled!!!11" I'm not an economist, but now that the ruble is down, and nominal GDP is down, the military budget will also be low in dollar terms, right?
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 24, 2014 4:01 pm

    lulldapull wrote:Looks like China has to bail out Russia. The Chinese are providing funds already before Russia starts defaulting and there is a run on the banks.

    You have a link to this?
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    Post  flamming_python on Wed Dec 24, 2014 4:01 pm

    lulldapull wrote:Looks like China has to bail out Russia. The Chinese are providing funds already before Russia starts defaulting and there is a run on the banks.

    Looks like what you just said is a load of monumental bullshit and you're an immature provocative Western-supremacist troll brainwashed by Rupert Murdoch's water-tight hold over your country's media-space and more than eager to fight the propaganda war, unless you care to actually back it up with some facts and figures. Russia has hundreds of billions of dollars worth of foreign currency and gold as reserves, 2 funds full of dozens of billions of dollars equivalent more, huge stocks of natural resources, very low - relatively speaking - government debt, and considerable amounts of liquidity.
    Where in all this due you see a necessity for China to 'bail-out' Russia?


    Last edited by flamming_python on Wed Dec 24, 2014 4:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 24, 2014 4:09 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    lulldapull wrote:Looks like China has to bail out Russia. The Chinese are providing funds already before Russia starts defaulting and there is a run on the banks.

    Looks like what you just said is a load of bullshit and you're an immature provocative Western-supremist troll eager to fight the propaganda war, unless you care to actually back it up with some facts and figures. Russia has hundreds of billions of dollars worth of foreign currency and gold as reserves, 2 funds full of dozens of billions of dollars equivalent more, huge stocks of natural resources, very low - relatively speaking - government debt, and considerable amounts of liquidity.
    Where in all this due you see a necessity for China to 'bail-out' Russia?

    Went through zerohedge and finmarkey.ru and found nothing. I think the ausy idiot simply misread the report about China offering assistance to actually giving assistance and drew his own conclusion. Pretty sad for someone who speaks english as first language and article was in english.
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 24, 2014 4:12 pm

    Austin wrote:Another tool in Economic Warfare by West , Likely Russia would be downgraded to Junk Status  by S&P and Moody.

    S&P places Russia’s ratings on CreditWatch negative

    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/768858

    Moody’s downgrades Gazprom’s foreign currency rating


    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/768862

    They do this because Russia has no access to credit anymore and they will end up putting them on lowest ratings next to Iran and North Korea. In the end, wont do anything other than make russia more dependent on themselves (or other partners like India and Russia) for credit and make their nond market more honest. Outside of that, who cares what some sort of New York agencies think?

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