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    Russian Economy General News: #3

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    Firebird

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    Post  Firebird on Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:23 am

    Austin wrote:Rouble is fluctuating too widely , Saw in morning it was 71 then suddenly it was 64 and then 66 ,67 ,68 ........Not sure how it can so widely fluctuate in such a short span of time

    We faced issue with Rupee in August 2013 when QE was announced to be abruptly stopped but never faced this wide fluctuation

    Very thin, illiquid market ie small volumes.

    Earlier in the yr just 25bn USD worth of rubles was trading per day. Thats tiny.
    Consider that 4 or 5 TRILLIONS dollars worth of foreign exchange trade occurs per day.

    Also, trades are done on margin ie 1 million might buy 50 or 100 million of currency. And these are trades to-ing and fro-ing between big (mainly NATO banks here) all day.

    Its probably right that the ruble is now substantially undervalued. But this game is all about bluff and bluster. Cause mayhem in Russia, make Putin unpopular. Try to get a gimp like a new Yeltsin in. I dont think Russian people are falling for it. Infact, it should mean the end for some 5th columnists.

    If Russia and America never trade, the exch rate doesnt really matter. Esp if Russia's USD debt laden companies tell America to fuck itself. Russia is a net goods exporter. NATO is a net capital exporter. If America refuses to honour the trade side. Russia must refuse to honour the capital repayment side.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:52 am

    That new thermal weapon scope is looking interesting too.... Smile
    TheArmenian
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    Post  TheArmenian on Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:36 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    GarryB wrote:
    The "collapse of the ruble" is only on the views of american financial system..

    When buying shares in a company there is a time to buy and a time to sell.

    You don't sell when the shares are of low value and you don't buy when they are over valued.

    Right now is a very bad time to convert dollars to rubles, but a great time to buy Russian products valued in rubles.

    A while back there was a thread on Russian uniforms and uniform makers... can anyone recommend a maker of Russian uniforms (old and new) that sell internationally?

    I recently tried a link to Fort but their site was down for upgrades.

    Depending on laws and whatnot, I would be interested in purchasing both products and land in Russia

    I'm working right now on a mega-list of Russian consumer goods producers

    Should be good pirat

    FP,
    Very interested in your mega list. Eagerly waiting for it. In certain sectors, I would be able to help and contribute to your mega list.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python on Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:38 pm

    TheArmenian wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    GarryB wrote:
    The "collapse of the ruble" is only on the views of american financial system..

    When buying shares in a company there is a time to buy and a time to sell.

    You don't sell when the shares are of low value and you don't buy when they are over valued.

    Right now is a very bad time to convert dollars to rubles, but a great time to buy Russian products valued in rubles.

    A while back there was a thread on Russian uniforms and uniform makers... can anyone recommend a maker of Russian uniforms (old and new) that sell internationally?

    I recently tried a link to Fort but their site was down for upgrades.

    Depending on laws and whatnot, I would be interested in purchasing both products and land in Russia

    I'm working right now on a mega-list of Russian consumer goods producers

    Should be good pirat

    FP,
    Very interested in your mega list. Eagerly waiting for it. In certain sectors, I would be able to help and contribute to your mega list.

    K I'll set up a Google Doc soon and we can collaborate on it, will send u a PM
    TheArmenian
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    Post  TheArmenian on Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:39 pm

    This is a powerful article/prediction in a blog.

    Please read it, I would like to hear your opinions.

    http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2014/11/grandmaster-putins-golden-trap.html?m=1
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python on Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:42 pm

    Regular wrote:It's about time I buy Sfera helmet Very Happy

    If I were in your shoes I would hire out a mini-van and get on down to Kaliningrad for the weekend, and stock up on as much stuff as you can. It's a Black Friday mega-mega sale.

    Not just Russian products are cheap for now, but everything is; including imported home appliances, electronics and all the rest. But the prices are quickly rising, so get to it.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:23 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:I read a rumor that the reason Russian gov is allowing this, is because they want the $600B in foreign debt that is held in USD to default, so that the central gov can snatch them up with ease and less money, while it still hurts the foreign banka who leant the money. But those banks will get bailed out. Just a rumor though.

    Then foreign banks or creditors will never finance Russian companies again. Smart move.

    sepheronx wrote:
    Viktor wrote:Finally !   thumbsup

    The draft law "On industrial policy in the Russian Federation" was adopted

    Nice

    The third LNG carrier "SCF" construction STX Offshore & Shipbuilding was named

    The law is fine and dandy, but usless if no one can afford to get credit to start the company, and due to stupidity of CBR, at 17% interest rates, no one will take that chance to set up a company. Unless there is a repeate of 2008 where pawnshops are offering loans at 5% interest rates...

    It's apparently not the interest rate that is at 17% but something else. There was some info on this earlier somewhere..

    It is the credit from the west that is hurting Russia right now. If there was no debt to western emtities, then the whole usdrub exch would be pointless. Like when I posted that video two pages back, there is no reason why Russia could not have given loans at low interests. Even in 2008, many pawnbrokers were giving loans at interest rates of 5% at 7 years. But CBR was at 15% for less years. That is pathetic. If they do not have access to foreign credit, I say good. Prevents the issues rising again. Debt to your public is better than debt to a foreigner. Rely on your own wealth.

    As for interest rates, KVS stated it is for short term loans I believe and long term is still at 8.5%
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    Post  Firebird on Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:24 pm

    Will rd it in depth and reply later.
    But previously Ruble was backed by dollar reserves. Ru and China have been dumping dollar reserves. Both have become more free floating.

    Ru and China have also secretly been acquiring masses of gold, it has been said.
    To back a counter currency to the USD, and to hedge v inflation AND to potentially hit back at the US.

    So the bottom line is, Uncle Sham shouldnt try and be smug. Because he's likely to get hit hard at some pt.

    The sad part is that if Europe wasnt such a coward, and America wasnt such a delusional nutcase, Russia would have been a very helpful and loyal partner.

    As it stands, America treats Russia like Iraq. Except cant bomb Russia, apart from via its Nazi scum in Kiev.

    Summary, I always say "look at the fundamentals". Russia has resources and growth prospects.
    America is precarious and padding its accounts out with air. Europe is just rather stagnant and shooting itself in the foot.
    higurashihougi
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    Post  higurashihougi on Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:26 pm

    @Everyone: Please correct me if I am wrong, but "ruble collapse" actually is not a problem like the Western propaganda has been saying.

    The only thing decrease is the ratio Ruble : USD. But the value of Ruble is not decreasing.

    In order words, price of Russian good does not increase. Unlike in other case of currency devaluation when the goverment print a lot of money to exploit and suck the blood of money-users.

    In 2013, bubble investment FDI massively poured into Russia, and the venture capitalists bought Ruble with high price. After this and that in Ukraina in 2014, the bubble was suddenly destroyed, and these venture capitalists had to sell Ruble with low price. That means the "ruble collapse" bring great profits to Russia, and the Western venture capitalists suffered a terrible blow.

    And Kremlin is actually using the "sanction" to push away harmful bubble fund, only keep the healthy fund in Russia.

    Is that right ?
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:28 pm

    Crap. Is that where you live FP? If I send ya money, will you be able to pick stuff up for me? I would like some Russian mil grade boots (size 12us), kevlar vest and helmet as well. Lol, I can give you a shopping list! Ill even pay you for your service as well.
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    Post  Vann7 on Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:39 pm


    Well if looks like the world economy and politics are more complex that i thought.. scratch
    Have anyone ever heard the claim of BRICS sinking the US dollar as world currency ,not by fighting the IMF but instead by taking control of the IMF? scratch

    IF that sound crazy ,you are not alone..
    But the following report ,regardless if is true or not..
    Sounds quite convincing and who wrote the article seems very informed of world economies
    crisis and many details.. that are obscure to follow..

    http://philosophyofmetrics.com/2014/01/21/sdrs-and-the-new-bretton-woods-part-one/


    What is more crazy in that report is that apparently the IMF wants to move from the US dollar
    and welcomes the idea of BRICS leading the world economy. And switch from a system based on debt and change to a new one based on prosperity. And that they have a plan already to crash the US dollar.. Shocked
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:42 pm

    It is said that IMF is interested in moving their HQ to China and yes, use Renmimbi. If that is the case, good in IMF.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:50 pm

    Human is a money-bitch animal. Nothing will make me fall off my chair once people realize that money are in Asia.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:01 pm

    sepheronx wrote:It is said that IMF is interested in moving their HQ to China and yes, use Renmimbi. If that is the case, good in IMF.

    I doubt it, the IMF is a machine of Atlantacist economic warfare, it's already been confirmed that the IMF is such a anglo-supremacist conjury that France has more say in the IMF than what China has, which has a significantly smaller economy. Instead China will be building the IMF's superior rival, which is quite possible because by 2010 China has already overtaken the 'World Bank' in lending loans towards nations...

    China's global reach: lending more than the World Bank
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    Post  Vann7 on Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:10 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:@Everyone: Please correct me if I am wrong, but "ruble collapse" actually is not a problem like the Western propaganda has been saying.

    The only thing decrease is the ratio Ruble : USD. But the value of Ruble is not decreasing.

    In order words, price of Russian good does not increase. Unlike in other case of currency devaluation when the goverment print a lot of money to exploit and suck the blood of money-users.

    In 2013, bubble investment FDI massively poured into Russia, and the venture capitalists bought Ruble with high price. After this and that in Ukraina in 2014, the bubble was suddenly destroyed, and these venture capitalists had to sell Ruble with low price. That means the "ruble collapse" bring great profits to Russia, and the Western venture capitalists suffered a terrible blow.

    And Kremlin is actually using the "sanction" to push away harmful bubble fund, only keep the healthy fund in Russia.

    Is that right ?

    More or less.. yes..in some ways and not in others..

    First more than anything.. Remember that the world is full of examples of nations that continue
    living their life and developing its economy ,even after defaulting..and without going into a civil war.  ARgentina for example is officially bankrupt under the american banking system. But in their nation is business as usual.. they consume everything locally.. and trade using goods instead of currency. argentina is actually trading with Russia.. now selling food.. you have the example of Syria and IRAN ,they both continue trading with russia and under total sanctions their economy . Syria is even in the middle of a major war.
    all said now to your question.

    Russia Ruble value vs Dollar (and Euro too) is important if you buy products valued
    in Euros or dollars. that is Imports from US and Europe and any nation with a strong currency value similar to them.. like Canada. so basically is North america and Europe.

    So if the Ruble value is 50% less than dollar.. then an iphone in Russia will cost you 50% more than early in the year. But this is not always the case. Because Companies can give discounts to nations with weak currency.. so to attract sales. But in general ,Products from foreign companies in Russia will cost you much more if they have a value similar to the dollar.

    Domestic products in the other hand is a different thing.. they not valued in dollars by their companies but in Rubles. So unless there is no Inflation. or little one. food price should be about  the same now in Russia ,than it was last year. because Ruble vs Dollar is irrelevant in the domestic market in Russia.

    a Big plus is that Weak Ruble attract investors in Russia..there will be thousands and thousands of new jobs and tourism. so that will help the economy.. and negative will be for Russian billionaires who make their business outside Russia ,will lose a lot of money.

    So no the russian economy will not collapse.. as long as people continue with their lives normally and focus in their domestic products..  Bank loans however will be much expensive  .because Russia bank raised interest to control inflation.

    The major problem however is not the Ruble value in the west.. but that people feel panic
    and lose faith in their own currency economy and start to change their rubles in dollars.. this will artificially inflate the value of dollar because more is used and buy. and will weaken more the ruble.

    Fortunatelly for RUssia ,the currency war and sanctions happened when Russia economy was very strong and healty . this means Russia have a lot of tools to improve the economy. and also have allies that can help.. If China for example start buying rubles.. and starting business in Russia creating many thousands of jobs it will be very good.  personally i think Russia will do fine.. And this will help Russia to develop its own industry and not depend of western nations products ,that its price can be manipulated.

    Best thing that could happen to Russia.. to develop everthing they need at home.. and not depend the western manipulations of their ruble.
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    Post  flamming_python on Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:43 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Crap. Is that where you live FP? If I send ya money, will you be able to pick stuff up for me? I would like some Russian mil grade boots (size 12us), kevlar vest and helmet as well. Lol, I can give you a shopping list! Ill even pay you for your service as well.

    St. Petersburg - and you serial?

    Figure in the cost of shipping and so on. If it works out to your advantage, then I might be willing to help out, although I have no idea where to get that stuff from; certainly the casual Voentorgs don't sell kevlar vests and helmets Smile
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    Post  par far on Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:06 pm

    Firebird wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Managing Director of the Moscow Exchange Derivatives Market Roman Sulzhik went to "Euromaidan"
    Managing Director of the Moscow Exchange Derivatives Market Roman Sulzhik went to "Euromaidan", where he was noticed by thanking for the support of US Senator John McCain.
    Sulzhik first got into the lens of the First Channel, where it can be seen from 4:06, and was photographed his fellow "evromaydanu."

    http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/248338

    In comments to the last photo on the phrase "Glory to Ukraine!" Sulzhik responsible "Heroes glory!", Which is exactly the same slogan of the so-called Ukrainian Insurgent Army, led by Stepan Bandera.

    After meeting with Senator McCain Sulzhik wrote in his facebook a few answers that reveal his attitude to what is happening in Ukraine and Russia. He subsequently remove them.

    For example, in one of them Sulzhik doubts whether it will start up after what happened in Russia and the other did not hide his aversion to the country in which it operates.

    "A lot of thought why we ordinary people not the same as in Russia. What comes to mind - culture freemen less slavery. Less dependence on the sovereign because the country is poor - only the power robbing people ... "- says financier (spelling and punctuation preserved).

    Roman Sulzhik was born in Kiev in 1974, he graduated from the Physics and Mathematics school number 145, and then emigrated to the United States, where he studied and worked until 2008, when he returned to Russia.

    And people say there are no 5th Columnists in Russia?  Well, here you go!  Even a pic:
    Russian Economy General News: #3 - Page 16 QBP9Iiq

    This does seem to make sense.
    The Forex market is usually legit.
    But whats happening here is like someone trying to distort the price of some product by buying and selling with his mate over Ebay. Thereby connning the public into thinking there was a huge price change.

    So in effect they're not real USD-RUB trades. But trades insured by something that hasnt been declared to the outside world. Thereby allowing Western bloc banks to post the pretend prices without risk of serious damage. (Ofcourse the US fed also assisting them).




    The bastard shaking mccains hand should be shot dead, I pretty sure the Russian government has seen the picture.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:32 pm

    Ok, what about electronics. By anychance, would you be able to get a MCST powered PC for me? Like the monocube? Or anything with the Elbrus 4C in it? I would definately like one. Ill be trying to order the loongfei processor so I want a Russian one as well.
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:49 pm

    Russia Has Reacted to Economic Siege with Creative, Far-Reaching Moves

    Well worth the read.
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:51 pm

    par far wrote:
    Firebird wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Managing Director of the Moscow Exchange Derivatives Market Roman Sulzhik went to "Euromaidan"
    Managing Director of the Moscow Exchange Derivatives Market Roman Sulzhik went to "Euromaidan", where he was noticed by thanking for the support of US Senator John McCain.
    Sulzhik first got into the lens of the First Channel, where it can be seen from 4:06, and was photographed his fellow "evromaydanu."

    http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/248338

    In comments to the last photo on the phrase "Glory to Ukraine!" Sulzhik responsible "Heroes glory!", Which is exactly the same slogan of the so-called Ukrainian Insurgent Army, led by Stepan Bandera.

    After meeting with Senator McCain Sulzhik wrote in his facebook a few answers that reveal his attitude to what is happening in Ukraine and Russia. He subsequently remove them.

    For example, in one of them Sulzhik doubts whether it will start up after what happened in Russia and the other did not hide his aversion to the country in which it operates.

    "A lot of thought why we ordinary people not the same as in Russia. What comes to mind - culture freemen less slavery. Less dependence on the sovereign because the country is poor - only the power robbing people ... "- says financier (spelling and punctuation preserved).

    Roman Sulzhik was born in Kiev in 1974, he graduated from the Physics and Mathematics school number 145, and then emigrated to the United States, where he studied and worked until 2008, when he returned to Russia.

    And people say there are no 5th Columnists in Russia?  Well, here you go!  Even a pic:
    Russian Economy General News: #3 - Page 16 QBP9Iiq

    This does seem to make sense.
    The Forex market is usually legit.
    But whats happening here is like someone trying to distort the price of some product by buying and selling with his mate over Ebay. Thereby connning the public into thinking there was a huge price change.

    So in effect they're not real USD-RUB trades. But trades insured by something that hasnt been declared to the outside world. Thereby allowing Western bloc banks to post the pretend prices without risk of serious damage. (Ofcourse the US fed also assisting them).




    The bastard shaking mccains hand should be shot dead, I pretty sure the Russian government has seen the picture.

    Seeing as how I found it on a Russian site, I imagine they already know. Forcing the guy out or facing prison sentance should be a good step. Will light the fire under the ass of the other fifth columnists.
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    Post  Pirey on Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:58 pm

    The ruble now is 59.77 for 1$ and 83 for 1 euro.
    Still far from good for me, it should be something between 45 and 50 because of the oil drop and sanctions.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:59 pm

    Looks like the hedge fund speculative attacks on the Rouble may come back and hit the US & EU hard...

    Russia crisis leaves banks around the world exposed by the billions

    Russian Economy General News: #3 - Page 16 Russia-crisis-european-banks.si

    Major banks across Europe, as well as the UK, US, and Japan, are at major risk should the Russian economy default, according to a new study by Capital Economics.

    The ING Group in the Netherlands, Raiffeisen Bank in Austria, Societe General in France, UniCredit in Italy, and Commerzbank in Germany, have all faced significant losses in the wake of the ruble crisis. On Tuesday, the currency had its biggest fall in a decade and a half, losing 20 percent, nearing the 27 percent drop it experienced in 1998 that led to a default.

    Overall Societe General, known as Rosbank in the Russian market, has the most exposure at US$31 billion, or €25 billion, according to Citigroup Inc. analysts. This is equivalent to 62 percent of the Paris-based bank’s tangible equity, Bloomberg News reported.  Following the drop, Raiffeisen, which has €15 billion at risk in Russia, saw its stocks plummeted more than 10 percent. Raiffeisen also has significant exposure in Ukraine, which is facing a similar currency sell-off as Russia.

    Russian Economy General News: #3 - Page 16 Graph

    Many Russian companies borrow money from European and American banks, but now the value of their domestic currency has decreased by more than 50 percent against the dollar, so the cost of the loans has doubled in ruble terms.

    But the Russian Central Bank, flush with foreign cash reserves, can help these companies out.

    “The current ruble crisis does not have any material impact on Russia’s ability to service foreign debt obligations,” Chris Weafer, partner at MacroAdivsory in Moscow, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

    The Russian economy is nowhere near default. The Central Bank has more than $400 billion in foreign currency reserves, unlike the last time when they defaulted in 1998, when they only had $16 billion.

    “There is no risk of default amongst the major banks or industrial companies. Reserves are adequate and the weak ruble boosts the outlook for trade and the current account surplus for 2015,” Weafer said.

    Russia crisis leaves banks around the world exposed by the billions



    Even the countries with less exposure maybe at risk for either 'beggar my neighbor' policies by other countries that are more exposed or a general 'snowballing' 'domino' effect.
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:21 pm

    Essentially, Russian CB will bail out banks but the private loans may default. If that does, thats still around $600B. If they do, many companies in Russia will probably be purchased by the government for pennies (kopecs) and eu and us banks will get hit hard.
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    Post  Viktor on Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:39 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Essentially, Russian CB will bail out banks but the private loans may default. If that does, thats still around $600B. If they do, many companies in Russia will probably be purchased by the government for pennies (kopecs) and eu and us banks will get hit hard.

    And thats a good option.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:55 pm

    Bailing out private entities is a no no in capitalism. This is precisely what EU got wrong.

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