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    Russian Economy General News: #3

    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:16 pm

    I am under the same thought. Let the privatte debt default, and buy them up! They then become Russian companies again. Re-privatize them back into Russian private hands under Russian prices, not russian prices based on forex.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:19 pm

    That's the way it is done. Capitalism has the ability to clean it's own house when political elites doesn't protect economic elites.
    The new guys will know they have to protect their own house instead of running their businesses from Switzerland or London or Miami.
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    Post  GustavoHF Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:36 pm

    If the USA chooses to send lethal aid to Ukraine, I think that the Russian Federation will not have another choice, but to send troops to Ukraine.

    When Yanukovitch leave power, Putin choose to not send his troops, and now war is happening in Dombass and the sanctions are hurting the Russian economy.

    Ukraine used to be the brother nation of Russia, and now is ruled by a horde of savages and neonazis. So, Russia can't pretend that this situation isn't hapenning. The job is hard, but it have to be done.

    It's time to liberate the slavic brothers, and to clean the Ukrainian soil from the banderits.

    Long live to Mother Russia.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:46 pm

    I second this.
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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:01 am

    America's big sanction against Russia was its refusal to continue providing capital for projects like oil and gas. Ofcourse Euro-gimp went along with that.

    It doesn't matter much in time. Russia can go to BRICS, and elsewhere, but there is an inevitable adjustment time.

    Russia needs to hit back hard. Both against puppets of Uncle Sham in Russia. And in other ways, eg cutting off gas, titanium, airspace access, perhaps support in the war vs/OF terrorism.

    It could try many illegalities, just as Uncle Sham does.

    I'm also wondering how the market may have been manipulated. The techniques are well documented.
    For instance you could have 10 traders, each one buys at say 1% above the previous one. So it appears to be activity to the outside eye, but in reality they're just playing "pass the parcel" and no one either gains or loses. 6 or 8 mega banks doing this will spook a market and its already been done in LIBOR, FX, Copper, LOTS of markets.

    Alternatively you could post a trade price but have it "hedged" ie insured against with another asset - for instance shares in an oil field in Russia etc.

    I wonder if Russia has already limited its exposure to the NATO bloc? If it owes 700bn via its companies, what is it owed? If a corrupt oligarch has his assets seized by Uncle Sham, will Putin care? I suspect not.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:18 am

    During this hours sanctions is a clear act of war. It's as simple as that. If Putin can't take at least equal action no matter how much I love him he must step down, fullstop.
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    Post  Pirey Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:18 am

    There is rumor that Putin gave green light to Medvedev and current CBR leadership(Nabulina etc) and the liberal fellowship to do everything necessary to stabilize the rubble till 24 of December. After that there will be heads flying.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:29 am

    sepheronx wrote:
    GarryB wrote:
    The "collapse of the ruble" is only on the views of american financial system..

    When buying shares in a company there is a time to buy and a time to sell.

    You don't sell when the shares are of low value and you don't buy when they are over valued.

    Right now is a very bad time to convert dollars to rubles, but a great time to buy Russian products valued in rubles.

    A while back there was a thread on Russian uniforms and uniform makers... can anyone recommend a maker of Russian uniforms (old and new) that sell internationally?

    I recently tried a link to Fort but their site was down for upgrades.

    Depending on laws and whatnot, I would be interested in purchasing both products and land in Russia

    I'm working right now on a mega-list of Russian consumer goods producers

    Should be good pirat
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    par far


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    Post  par far Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:03 am

    It not just the Russian Ruble that is being attacked, Turkish Iira and the Indian Rupee is also being attacked. I think this is because both Turkey and India signed contracts with Russia.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:08 am

    Western Banks Cut Off Liquidity To Russian Entities
    As Zero Hedge first reported today, shortly before noon one (and subsequently more) FX brokers advised clients that any existing Ruble positions would be forcibly closed out because "western banks have stopped pricing USDRUB", over concerns of Russian capital controls. Ironically, it was this forced liquidation of mostly short RUB positions that pushed the RUB higher, which in turn had a briefly favorably impact on energy commodities and risk assets, as the market had by then perceived the Ruble selloff as excessive. Of course, since nothing had actually changed aside from a temporary market technical, the selloff promptly resumed into the close of trading once the market finally understood what we had explained hours previously. And unfortunately for the bulls, various falling knife-catchers, and those who hope the Russian situation will stabilize imminently with or without capital controls, it appears things in Russia are about to get a whole lot worse because as the WSJ reports, the next driver of the Russian crisis is likely to come from within the banking system itself because "global banks are curtailing the flow of cash to Russian entities, a response to the ruble’s sharpest selloff since the 1998 financial crisis." Presenting Russia's banks: now cut off from the outside world as the second cold war goes nuclear, at least when it comes to the financial system: wrote:

    read rest at link.

    Well, now Russia will have to seek other banks besides western ones, and the fact their own bank is incompetent.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:35 am

    Managing Director of the Moscow Exchange Derivatives Market Roman Sulzhik went to "Euromaidan"
    Managing Director of the Moscow Exchange Derivatives Market Roman Sulzhik went to "Euromaidan", where he was noticed by thanking for the support of US Senator John McCain.
    Sulzhik first got into the lens of the First Channel, where it can be seen from 4:06, and was photographed his fellow "evromaydanu."

    http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/248338

    In comments to the last photo on the phrase "Glory to Ukraine!" Sulzhik responsible "Heroes glory!", Which is exactly the same slogan of the so-called Ukrainian Insurgent Army, led by Stepan Bandera.

    After meeting with Senator McCain Sulzhik wrote in his facebook a few answers that reveal his attitude to what is happening in Ukraine and Russia. He subsequently remove them.

    For example, in one of them Sulzhik doubts whether it will start up after what happened in Russia and the other did not hide his aversion to the country in which it operates.

    "A lot of thought why we ordinary people not the same as in Russia. What comes to mind - culture freemen less slavery. Less dependence on the sovereign because the country is poor - only the power robbing people ... "- says financier (spelling and punctuation preserved).

    Roman Sulzhik was born in Kiev in 1974, he graduated from the Physics and Mathematics school number 145, and then emigrated to the United States, where he studied and worked until 2008, when he returned to Russia.

    And people say there are no 5th Columnists in Russia? Well, here you go! Even a pic:
    Russian Economy General News: #3 - Page 15 QBP9Iiq
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:01 am

    I'm working right now on a mega-list of Russian consumer goods producers

    Thanks that would be appreciated.
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    Post  GarryB Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:06 am

    Regular wrote:Does Russia have(or need?) alternatives for simple things like household items, tv's, mobile phones and etc. ? I was under impression that there are few things who have made in Russia on them. Hell people even buy clothing from Chinese sites like yoibuy or alibaba.

    Well that is the point... Russian manufacturers couldn't be competitive with major established foreign companies that outsource their production to get the cheapest labour in countries like China.

    Now that foreign currencies are so strong there should be enormous opportunity to establish local production of all sorts of items for domestic use and export...

    It is not an accident that for the last 10 or so years the US has been complaining to the Chinese that their currency is under valued and that it makes it too hard for US companies producing in the US to compete....
    Werewolf
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    Post  Werewolf Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:14 am

    Seriously i already think about financing a private group that takes opportunities like this and just kills this 5th columnists on open streets if the state is in bed with them, a state must be in fear from its people otherwise they do not work properly. Count it as a motivation for the rest.
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    Post  Vann7 Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:35 am

    its quite possible that Putin strategy is to collapse the 5th column billionaire elite Busines that have all their money outside and never invest in Russia.. as other said to later buy cheaply their debt and Nationalize Russia industry through the western currency war. and wipe the 5th column for once. but this is just my guess...  

    in more news..
    Something very interesting is happening in CHINA..
    According to a forum poster in RT.. he shared with us that The mood in China most
    popular Media is very very High in support Russia in anything they need. Chinese companies in
    china asia summit were also very ready to replace Europe and US companies..as soon they leave.

    didn't found the exact post.. but the headlines in China media was like this..

    the article said.. that RUSSIA is CHINA friend.. and that they cannot
    Allow Russia to be alone in this difficult times.. because the prosperity and stability of Russia is the prosperity and stability of CHINA.. and that China should be ready to help in everything their Friends.
    Smile

    There was also people mentioning ,that China was buying Rubles and many chinese business moving to Russia. Their industry capabilities should not be underestimated as inferior of Europe today..they even reverse engineer the iphone already. but not only in electronics china is strong.. but in many other things. I bought for example 2 different musical instruments ,one was for a popular music company in USA. it was neither cheap or expensive but decent price..
    then got another one from UK.. and it was my surprise big ,when discover that both instruments were made in CHINA. So even popular musical brands in USA ,and UK have shops in China and build their instruments there.. years laters i consider my shopping a really good investment..
    and im sure that Russians will have a very big different opinion of Chinesse Industry once move in full force to Russia. their manufacturing quality today is not any worse than the west. even Biggest medical instruments companies that its products needs to pass very serious regulations in quality controls is done in China today. CHina now knows the how's to do almost anything that US and Europe manufacture in their country. So this will be of a tremendous help to Russia
    to become independent of the west.. even copies of french Wines today China is making. lol
    So chinesse people are addicted builders.. they truly like to do every product others do.
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    Austin


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    Post  Austin Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:07 am

    My opinion is the current situation is of Russian Ruler in the making , Back then if you remember in 2008 when Rouble collapsed due to Global Financial Crisis then CBR burnt $200 billion supporting the Rouble.

    IT was very clear back then that Rouble was vulnerable to Euro/USD crises be it natural one like 2008 or man made one in order to attack the economy like it is today.

    CBR should have then gone for aggresive Gold Buying and gradually moving away from pegging Rouble to Yuan ( maybe a bit of Euro ) from USD/Euro but in the long run pegging Rouble to more Gold and less yuan would make Russian Financially Independent from major crisis either natural or man made and most importantly add financial discipline to the market which is to say no credit bubble via borrowing etc.

    But The Russian Decision maker took easier route thought the financial crisis was one off and it was business as usual backed by growing GDP with cheap liquidity via QE.

    Now 6 years since 2008 they are in same crisis due to independent foreign policy thinking but now is a good time to change.

    If they dont change now then as they say If you dont learn from History You End up repeating it.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:52 am

    You got to love the economic pundits, and quackademics...they gloat about Rouble devaluation, and how strong the U.S. Dollar is...well think again!!!

    Russian Economy General News: #3 - Page 15 B4YqyiVCIAA4piu


    The Great Wealth Meltdown: Middle-Class Families Are Worth Less Today Than in 1969

    Werewolf
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    Post  Werewolf Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:08 am

    The dollar is 95 times less worth than it was decades ago, but nobody will tell you that because all rating agencies and central banks are working together. The US will drown by Dollar hyper-mega-inflation when Dollar is dumped entirely by BRICS, meaning all the dollars this countries with more than two bln people have had to buy off with their own currency, meaning this will hyper inflate the US and they will need entire car trunks full of dollar to buy a leaf of bread just like it was the case in germany.
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    Post  Firebird Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:12 am

    sepheronx wrote:Managing Director of the Moscow Exchange Derivatives Market Roman Sulzhik went to "Euromaidan"
    Managing Director of the Moscow Exchange Derivatives Market Roman Sulzhik went to "Euromaidan", where he was noticed by thanking for the support of US Senator John McCain.
    Sulzhik first got into the lens of the First Channel, where it can be seen from 4:06, and was photographed his fellow "evromaydanu."

    http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/248338

    In comments to the last photo on the phrase "Glory to Ukraine!" Sulzhik responsible "Heroes glory!", Which is exactly the same slogan of the so-called Ukrainian Insurgent Army, led by Stepan Bandera.

    After meeting with Senator McCain Sulzhik wrote in his facebook a few answers that reveal his attitude to what is happening in Ukraine and Russia. He subsequently remove them.

    For example, in one of them Sulzhik doubts whether it will start up after what happened in Russia and the other did not hide his aversion to the country in which it operates.

    "A lot of thought why we ordinary people not the same as in Russia. What comes to mind - culture freemen less slavery. Less dependence on the sovereign because the country is poor - only the power robbing people ... "- says financier (spelling and punctuation preserved).

    Roman Sulzhik was born in Kiev in 1974, he graduated from the Physics and Mathematics school number 145, and then emigrated to the United States, where he studied and worked until 2008, when he returned to Russia.

    And people say there are no 5th Columnists in Russia?  Well, here you go!  Even a pic:
    Russian Economy General News: #3 - Page 15 QBP9Iiq

    This does seem to make sense.
    The Forex market is usually legit.
    But whats happening here is like someone trying to distort the price of some product by buying and selling with his mate over Ebay. Thereby connning the public into thinking there was a huge price change.

    So in effect they're not real USD-RUB trades. But trades insured by something that hasnt been declared to the outside world. Thereby allowing Western bloc banks to post the pretend prices without risk of serious damage. (Ofcourse the US fed also assisting them).

    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:17 am

    sepheronx wrote:I read a rumor that the reason Russian gov is allowing this, is because they want the $600B in foreign debt that is held in USD to default, so that the central gov can snatch them up with ease and less money, while it still hurts the foreign banka who leant the money. But those banks will get bailed out. Just a rumor though.

    Then foreign banks or creditors will never finance Russian companies again. Smart move.

    sepheronx wrote:
    Viktor wrote:Finally ! thumbsup

    The draft law "On industrial policy in the Russian Federation" was adopted

    Nice

    The third LNG carrier "SCF" construction STX Offshore & Shipbuilding was named

    The law is fine and dandy, but usless if no one can afford to get credit to start the company, and due to stupidity of CBR, at 17% interest rates, no one will take that chance to set up a company. Unless there is a repeate of 2008 where pawnshops are offering loans at 5% interest rates...

    It's apparently not the interest rate that is at 17% but something else. There was some info on this earlier somewhere..


    Last edited by flamming_python on Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:18 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Firebird Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:18 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:You got to love the economic pundits, and quackademics...they gloat about Rouble devaluation, and how strong the U.S. Dollar is...well think again!!!

    Russian Economy General News: #3 - Page 15 B4YqyiVCIAA4piu


    The Great Wealth Meltdown: Middle-Class Families Are Worth Less Today Than in 1969


    This is right. For younger people in W Europe and N America, it has often been a horror story over the past 15yrs or so. You've only got to look at graduates working in McDonalds and shit. This was never the case before then.

    Likewise for the US middle class.

    And it all would have been prevented if their Establishment didnt have a flood of immigrants from the 3rd World and export all its investment capital to China.

    God knows how much energy will cost in the EU if/when Russia pulls the plug.
    In England, "wealthy middle class" people switch off their heating overnight. Whereas Russians couldnt care less about heating bills in comparison.
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    Post  Firebird Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:21 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:I read a rumor that the reason Russian gov is allowing this, is because they want the $600B in foreign debt that is held in USD to default, so that the central gov can snatch them up with ease and less money, while it still hurts the foreign banka who leant the money. But those banks will get bailed out. Just a rumor though.

    Then foreign banks or creditors will never finance Russian companies again. Smart move.

    No, US and Euro banks won't... until the trade war is settled.

    America and Europe were bound by the terms of the WTO etc.
    They unilaterally and without just reason broke those terms - in trade AND finance.

    This was therefore an act of economic warfare.
    The Western banks I'm sure will get sweeteners from Uncle Sham. And some solution will eventually be found.

    Similarly, will Euro farmers refuse to ever sell food to Russia again? Ofcourse not.
    NATO isn't the only source of capital in the World.
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    Post  Firebird Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:29 am

    sepheronx wrote:Western Banks Cut Off Liquidity To Russian Entities


    read rest at link.

    Well, now Russia will have to seek other banks besides western ones, and the fact their own bank is incompetent.

    If its say 12 banks on the interbank market, no one knows if its their clients or themselves trading USD_RUB. With the gigantic spreads of yesterday, u can bet it was the "club".

    Russia and NATO had dissociated in financial terms 6 or 9 months ago. Neither really consider themsevles bound by the rules any more. Whats Uncle Sham gonna do? Send the debt collectors round? haha

    Anyway, its a great time for anyone paid in Western currency to visit Moscow. 5star hotels nr Kremlin for £50!
    Regular
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    Post  Regular Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:38 am

    It's about time I buy Sfera helmet Very Happy
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    Post  Austin Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:55 am

    Rouble is fluctuating too widely , Saw in morning it was 71 then suddenly it was 64 and then 66 ,67 ,68 ........Not sure how it can so widely fluctuate in such a short span of time

    We faced issue with Rupee in August 2013 when QE was announced to be abruptly stopped but never faced this wide fluctuation

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