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    Russian Economy General News: #3

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    Firebird

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    Post  Firebird Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:14 pm

    If you treat someone with tolerance and respect but they treat you like a cunt, maybe there is only one answer? Behave like a cunt, because thats all your enemy deserves.

    Maybe Russia should consider this approach to Uncle Sham and the Eurogimps?

    Cut off the gas to Europe. Flood America with fake super dollars? Send in floods of drug crazed South American coke importers to start civil unrest?

    Sometimes if someone else wants war, you have to oblige.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:16 pm

    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/767350

    ......

    So in other words, increase supply of foreign currencies in domestic market. So purchasing goods will be done in which currency? Maybe they should just drop the ruble then if they wont actually try to fix it. Screw the economics minister. Hope he ends up in a noose along with the rest of them.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:22 pm

    sepheronx wrote:http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/767350

    ......

    So in other words, increase supply of foreign currencies in domestic market. So purchasing goods will be done in which currency? Maybe they should just drop the ruble then if they wont actually try to fix it. Screw the economics minister. Hope he ends up in a noose along with the rest of them.

    Capital and exchange controls, that's all you need.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:28 pm

    Firebird wrote:If you treat someone with tolerance and respect but they treat you like a cunt, maybe there is only one answer? Behave like a cunt, because thats all your enemy deserves.

    Maybe Russia should consider this approach to Uncle Sham and the Eurogimps?

    Cut off the gas to Europe. Flood America with fake super dollars? Send in floods of drug crazed South American coke importers to start civil unrest?

    Sometimes if someone else wants war, you have to oblige.

    Agreed.

    Adopt the us dollar as second currency, screw it up horribly (give cb control. They screw everything up) or just create artificial us dollars to flood the market.

    I remember reading not long ago how Ulkelele or whatever the idiots name is as economics minister saying how they need to have sanctions lifted and Putin said it looks like it wont happen anytime soon, and now adter saying to bring in more forex for domestic market, gives me the idea he is also a 5th colounmist. Sick people who are running the economy.
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    Firebird

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    Post  Firebird Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:34 pm

    The timing of all this cant really be "coincidence".

    Numerous financial news sites (ie the "first tier" western ones) now consider the Chinese currency to be a "major". Chinese GDP is growing to US size very rapidly.

    I think this is all a US game to try and force Russia and the Eurasian Union to fall in line with the nonsense that is the "Washington Consensus" ie the outdated crap that sees America as centre of the universe.

    America is fighting hard and dirty, because it is truly scared. How Russia needs to fight it, I'm not entirely sure yet.
    TR1
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    Post  TR1 Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:02 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    TR1 wrote:Of course it will. Prices go up. Savings are wiped out. Wages don't adjust quickly enough.


    That won't happen to an economy who's fundamentals are in check

    Even if people exchange their roubles for dollars, and then their dollars for roubles again - that won't collapse the Russian economy

    What's happening is that imports have become a lot more expensive, and people have started a buying spree in anticipation of inflation and a further deevaluation of the rouble. But not many people are panicking converting all their savings into Euros or Dollars, although many are opening Euro/Dollar accounts.

    There will be a correction, when prices, wages, etc... all go up. That will come next year.
    Nothing so dramatic as you predict though.

    As GazB mentioned, there are domestic alternatives for most critical things; materials, food, parts, machinery, etc... so businesses won't go out of business and ordinary people won't starve, they'll just depend more and more on domestic producers (whose prices will also go up due to the correction I mentioned, but not as much). Even many consumer goods have domestic producers.

    I meant will have an effect on people, not lead to economic collapse.
    Viktor
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    Post  Viktor Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:10 pm

    Finally ! thumbsup

    The draft law "On industrial policy in the Russian Federation" was adopted

    Nice

    The third LNG carrier "SCF" construction STX Offshore & Shipbuilding was named
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    Post  Regular Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:13 pm

    Does Russia have(or need?) alternatives for simple things like household items, tv's, mobile phones and etc. ? I was under impression that there are few things who have made in Russia on them. Hell people even buy clothing from Chinese sites like yoibuy or alibaba.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:31 pm

    Now what it needs is central bank of China to make an announcement that strongly supports ruble and buy a few billion of Russian bonds simultaneously.
    This is precisely what westerners would do and such a move I think should be sufficient enough to give the tone to the markets.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:46 pm

    Pirey wrote:The biggest enemy is fear and panic in these moments. There will not be another 1998.
    My advice is to stay calm. This is attack on the economy of Russia, its not fault of the russian gov, the economy of russia was doing fine even with 3(correct me if i'm wrong in counting) rounds of sanctions from EU/USA.

    This is attack with subjective purpose.

    Russian economy was doing well sub-par before all this
    Putin was elected on a platform of raising GDP growth through to 6%; yet between when he was elected and the takeover of the Crimea; growth never reached anywhere near 6%
    In fact there were several problems in the Russian economy - capital flight & slide of rouble chiefly, that became apparent as far back as 2013; and the current attack on the Russian economy has exasberated them yet not caused them.

    Still though, Russia's economy is resilient, unemployment is very low, domestic consumption is high, industrial & agricultural production has been growing and now that the US and EU have sanctioned themselves, been sanctioned or have priced themselves or out of the market; demand for domestic goods & producers will be rising more - so I'm not particularly worried about a 1998 scenario or even rising unemployment.

    Other than the rouble's fall, the problem I have my eye on are leading American tech firms leaving Russia - or at least that's what a couple Western publications claim they're doing. Other than the cut-back of Google's Moscow office, I haven't seen much evidence for it. But if they do leave; that would be a loss of jobs and tax revenues for the Russian government. Although I doubt US government pressure is going to get too many to leave unless the Russian economy properly breaks down.

    Central Bank needs to fired. They are not traitors. But incompetence is not excused.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:47 pm

    Obola is about to send lethal help to Ukraine (suck on this TrulyRetardNo1) and pass new sanctions simultaneously!!
    I want to see American jets down to say the least!! (I would better like a raid over Baltics and a winter campaign full scale in Ukraine).
    Except if they have good reason to be patient... cause I have to say that I wonder how desperate might West be to push full throttle.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:17 pm

    Regular wrote:Does Russia have(or need?) alternatives for simple things like household items, tv's, mobile phones and etc. ? I was under impression that there are few things who have made in Russia on them. Hell people even buy clothing from Chinese sites like yoibuy or alibaba.

    A few things. There are two national TV brands in Russia with three other companies manufacturing tv's in Russia (LG, Samsung and some turkish brand), only a couple of phone makers and so on. So there isnt much domestic competition and a lack of expansion of the brands (meaning they offer little options other than a few types of models of their product). This goes for all sectors besides furniture (small and large brands). Dunno about pharmacuiticals though. Most is still imported from China. At least even though Chinese currency value is also up, it nearly isnt as bad as comparrison to USD.

    Last thing they want to do is snuff out ruble as trade currency within the country, they even state to keep rubles, yet they are going to stuff the domestic market with forex. At this point, I dont think they know what to do, and the purge of officiala may come sooner than expected. Many people failed their jobs. Even if USD / Rub trade may be pointless, the fact that even domesic goods are rising in prices are borderline criminal. Domestic goods are supposed to be cheaper.
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:21 pm

    I read a rumor that the reason Russian gov is allowing this, is because they want the $600B in foreign debt that is held in USD to default, so that the central gov can snatch them up with ease and less money, while it still hurts the foreign banka who leant the money. But those banks will get bailed out. Just a rumor though.
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:25 pm

    Viktor wrote:Finally !   thumbsup

    The draft law "On industrial policy in the Russian Federation" was adopted

    Nice

    The third LNG carrier "SCF" construction STX Offshore & Shipbuilding was named

    The law is fine and dandy, but usless if no one can afford to get credit to start the company, and due to stupidity of CBR, at 17% interest rates, no one will take that chance to set up a company. Unless there is a repeate of 2008 where pawnshops are offering loans at 5% interest rates...
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    Post  Vann7 Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:47 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:The collapse of the rouble is making my mothers state pension worthless.  Im getting her on a plane to stay with us, i will not let her suffer 1998 again.  


    The "collapse of the ruble" is only on the views of american financial system..
    But not inside RUssia.. Your apartment rent will cost the same in Rubles.. they will not ask you to pay in american dollar.

    The only thing that can collapse the Ruble in Russia, is that Russians are convinced by western propaganda ,that they cannot live without USA dollar and cannot produce their own technolody and own industry .. Just look at IRAN .. IRAN is not a third world country..and a developed economy and have been under worse sanctions ,and they have not collapsed. Look at Syria dude.. Syria attacked by 30 nations.. attacked their economy.. everything in their lives.. and they are not collapsing.. Look at Cuba.. Total world Isolation and not collapsed..

    Only thing that can collapse Russian economy is that Russians lose faith in their own capabilities.
    Russia have a huge advantage that they have almost no debt and have infinite superior capabilities than IRAN or Cuba.. and that is the only nation in world that can do everything that US produce and better.  I think this economy artificially created crisis.. is a good opportunity for
    Russian People to stop looking at american and european technology and produce everything in home.  IF RUssia can create Space Rockets superior to american ones..stealth planes and computers i don't see why you think you can't live without the west for some time.. The sanctions will go in few years because the west cannot live without luxuries and there is a lot
    of business to do in Russia.


    Last edited by Vann7 on Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:26 pm; edited 2 times in total
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    Post  F-15E Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:48 pm

    @HannibalBarca,

    An attack against any baltic country means an attack against NATO,don't forget that. Wink
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    Vann7

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    Post  Vann7 Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:59 pm

    F-15E wrote:@HannibalBarca,

    An attack against any baltic country means an attack against NATO,don't forget that. Wink

    If baltic states attack Russia , it will level to the ground them and your country will do nothing .. You really think Russia is scared to fight USA? NATO is not united but far from it..greece will not fight RUssia.. neither Bulgaria or italy or spain or austria and don't think germany will do it ,probably behind the scenes they will hope for Russia to win..to finally get rid of US bases in their nation.. Very few nations will stand in line next to USA to fight Russia..specially when it was not Russia who started the fight.
    So if you really think NATO will protect you from being wiped ,and kicked in the ass ,as you deserve you are mistaken.  NATO is not indestructible.. Take a look how CHINA without technolody humiliated  NATO powers at that time in North Korea...

    http://bevinalexander.com/books/korea-first-war-we-lost.htm

    This is why your holywood propaganda does not like the theme of korean war..
    Because is not good to show americans Losing in a direct fight.

    I can't wait to see a small fight between US and Russia to start.. to see your many excuses for losing stealth planes ,an aircraft carrier or a warship and being kicked in the ass.

    Russia will never fight against any nation if not attacked but if they attacked make no mistake ,Russia will fight back regardless if they are NATO country or not... Any American warship that step on the middle will be automatically sink if threaten Russia in the middle of a conflict that you helped to provoked.  Go a see how Georgia was wiped.. and your american destroyers only limited to send humanitarian help and observe how their friends were destroyed after they started the fight.

    If any being a NATO member and being hostile to Russia,is dangerous for that nation..because give the false illusion of security and that can threaten Russia and get away with it.


    Last edited by Vann7 on Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:25 am; edited 2 times in total
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    Post  F-15E Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:13 pm

    @Vann7,lol,you cannot compare something that happened +60 years ago and the current situation....
    The wars of the future will not be won by masses of soldiers and tanks like they were ~+/-50 years ago, but by better technology and weapons.
    Peace. Very Happy
    (So,this isn't the right place to debate about that.)
    (And lol... comparing Georgia with Russia....)
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    Post  Vann7 Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:19 pm

    F-15E wrote:@Vann7,lol,you cannot compare something that happened +60 years ago and the current situation....
    The wars of the future will not be won by masses of soldiers and tanks like they were ~+/-50 years ago, but by better technology and weapons.
    Peace. Very Happy
    (So,this isn't the right place to debate about that.)


    Russian armed forces have superior technology that your country .
    if China could kick your ass.. using only rifles ,grenades and mines.. Russia will completely obliterate you . Americans military power is only good against third world nations and in hollywood movies. THis is why you need alliances of many nations in any conflict.
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    Firebird

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    Post  Firebird Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:01 pm

    Some ruble pts from my fx feed:-

    1)Kerry seems to be talking about sanctions being eased because "Russia has cooperated in recent days".
    What bullshit is that? Is Kerry up to some face saving stunt. "Those naughty Russians were forced into line by us"?

    2)Smaller trading houses are stopping trading USD-RUB because of volatility AND illiquidity.
    Its a VERY thinly traded pair. After all, Russian tends to export in Eur or now, some RMB(Chinese).

    This also has me wondering. If the US + gimps can rig LIBOR and FX markets, it would be easy to rig the Ruble USD pair. The amount of Ruble trade is tiny. And speculative trades can always be hedged OR they are simply backed with pretend money. Think Lehman, Natwest Bank etc.

    I wonder if 5th columnists DO have something to do with this. I DONT think thats all conspiracy theory.
    The Abramobitches and co have many billions USD at stake. How much loyalty do/did the Prokhorovs, Yeltsins, Khordokovskys have? None.

    3)The Russia US relationship is well and truly over. Europe needs a firm had or it will scurry around like Obummer's gay houseboy. Maybe there IS something in the idea that Putin is saying "ok break the rules of trade and of decency towards Russian people in Donbass and we will fight back". Perhaps Putin is saying "ok we will hit you in your debt exposure to Russia".
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    Firebird

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    Post  Firebird Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:04 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Viktor wrote:Finally !   thumbsup

    The draft law "On industrial policy in the Russian Federation" was adopted

    Nice

    The third LNG carrier "SCF" construction STX Offshore & Shipbuilding was named

    The law is fine and dandy, but usless if no one can afford to get credit to start the company, and due to stupidity of CBR, at 17% interest rates, no one will take that chance to set up a company. Unless there is a repeate of 2008 where pawnshops are offering loans at 5% interest rates...

    Britain raised raised rates from 11 to 13 to 15% in one day back in the 90s. And its economy is built around fin assets - unlike Russia etc

    I suspect this step is temporary and part of a wider plan by Russia.

    Putin can always tell Uncle Sham to go fuck himself for debt owed by Ru companies.
    The q isnt whether things will change, but how, IMO.
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    Post  GarryB Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:27 pm

    The "collapse of the ruble" is only on the views of american financial system..

    When buying shares in a company there is a time to buy and a time to sell.

    You don't sell when the shares are of low value and you don't buy when they are over valued.

    Right now is a very bad time to convert dollars to rubles, but a great time to buy Russian products valued in rubles.

    A while back there was a thread on Russian uniforms and uniform makers... can anyone recommend a maker of Russian uniforms (old and new) that sell internationally?

    I recently tried a link to Fort but their site was down for upgrades.
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    Post  Regular Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:30 pm

    Why not to bomb those lethal aid supplies when they reach Ukraine? Just like IDF does
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:31 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    The "collapse of the ruble" is only on the views of american financial system..

    When buying shares in a company there is a time to buy and a time to sell.

    You don't sell when the shares are of low value and you don't buy when they are over valued.

    Right now is a very bad time to convert dollars to rubles, but a great time to buy Russian products valued in rubles.

    A while back there was a thread on Russian uniforms and uniform makers... can anyone recommend a maker of Russian uniforms (old and new) that sell internationally?

    I recently tried a link to Fort but their site was down for upgrades.

    Depending on laws and whatnot, I would be interested in purchasing both products and land in Russia
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    Post  Firebird Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:02 pm

    Vineyard of the Saker:-

    I am not much of an economist, much less so a trader. But I have to agree with the markets here: the current Putin+Nabiulina combo is not one deserving trust and if I had to speculate, I would speculate against Russia right now.

    Maybe I am naive or primitive but I see only one way to reverse this death spiral: not only to fire Nabiulina, but to fully nationalize the Central Bank, fire the totality of its current top management and to appoint a new team with Sergei Glaziev as it's director with a rank of Minister of Finance. Then Russia must take the strategic decision drop the current system of backing each printed Ruble with purchased US Dollar and instead back the Ruble with either energy or metals or a combo of real-word resources. My own vote would go for gold.


    Maybe this is part of the reason why Ruble is sinking vs usd.
    Russia is dumping its dollar reserves and thinks "if America wont play by trade rules, stuff it our companies can dump their debts to US banks".

    Thats 700bn currently. Why should Russia give it back, if America engages in economic terrorism?

    Thats basically what BRICS said to Argentina who defaulted recently.

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