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    Russian Economy General News: #3

    Werewolf
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    Post  Werewolf Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:44 am

    Austin wrote:So why is Rouble falling more rapidly then other currency from OPEC or Canada or Norway ? Why arnt speculators attacking those currency ?

    Something seems sinister here , some one is attacking Russian Economy

    Because speculators work for specific corporations which are all alined with USA that is why only rouble is mainly attacked along with the 5th column with the financial head of CBR.
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    Austin

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    Post  Austin Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:05 am

    Werewolf wrote:
    Austin wrote:So why is Rouble falling more rapidly then other currency from OPEC or Canada or Norway ? Why arnt speculators attacking those currency ?

    Something seems sinister here , some one is attacking Russian Economy

    Because speculators work for specific corporations which are all alined with USA that is why only rouble is mainly attacked along with the 5th column with the financial head of CBR.

    Me thinks so they took about 6 months to penetrate the market and now they are wrecking havoc even CBR cannot control
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:05 am

    Of course it will. Prices go up. Savings are wiped out. Wages don't adjust quickly enough.

    But why?

    Prices of imported stuff paid for in US dollars will become stupidly expensive especially with tarriffs, but as long as there is a domestic alternative why should the Russian economy collapse?

    If savings were invested in US dollars a ratio of 100 rubles to one dollar means your savings are worth a fortune in rubles... sell sell sell.

    The armament program wont be cancelled... they can just extend the dates... 2020 is not magic date... if there is no money in the budget then 2030 is as good a date as any to aim for 70% new equipment.

    The point is that the military will be one area where most technologies are Russian and paid for in rubles so will not really be effected by the value of the US dollar in comparison.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:59 am

    TR1 wrote:Of course it will. Prices go up. Savings are wiped out. Wages don't adjust quickly enough.


    That won't happen to an economy who's fundamentals are in check

    Even if people exchange their roubles for dollars, and then their dollars for roubles again - that won't collapse the Russian economy

    What's happening is that imports have become a lot more expensive, and people have started a buying spree in anticipation of inflation and a further deevaluation of the rouble. But not many people are panicking converting all their savings into Euros or Dollars, although many are opening Euro/Dollar accounts.

    There will be a correction, when prices, wages, etc... all go up. That will come next year.
    Nothing so dramatic as you predict though.

    As GazB mentioned, there are domestic alternatives for most critical things; materials, food, parts, machinery, etc... so businesses won't go out of business and ordinary people won't starve, they'll just depend more and more on domestic producers (whose prices will also go up due to the correction I mentioned, but not as much). Even many consumer goods have domestic producers.
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    Austin

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    Post  Austin Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:30 pm

    Rouble crosses 70 to USD Sad

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR


    I saw in morning it was 60 and now its 70 , so this is a real blood bath
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    Austin

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    Post  Austin Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:53 pm

    The interesting thing is Oil has not moved today and Rouble moved from $61 to $74 and rising.

    Now any one says that falling rouble is due to falling oil needs to explain.

    This is an economic war and its beyond CBR control.

    Russian Government needs to step in soon or by tommorow it will be 100 Rouble for 1 USD
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:13 pm

    Well American way is to go out openly and give a deadline to Saudi Arabia to cut 50% production else you will bomb the fuck out of them and hang the Saudi family in Red Square.
    I have to admit, this low lives have some good ways from time to time Laughing
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    Austin

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    Post  Austin Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:29 pm

    Seems EURO is worth 100 Roubles now ....... even our Rupee did not fall way back in August 2013 when QE was stopped.

    Medvedev meeting on Economy is to happen today
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:01 pm

    Well, this sure does take away the theory it is tied directly to oil. At this point, I say they go out and call a spade a spade. Make it clear that attacking their currency is attacking their country and go after who is who, and that are the 5th colounmists in CB first.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:30 pm

    Not really. Ruble is tight to oil because anything else is worse. It's only that speculators and enemy powers try to decouple!


    Last edited by Hannibal Barca on Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:06 pm

    Vann, you are not very smart. Kurdin was one of the worst for Russia. Under him, there were NO investments in Russia. Kurdin was riding the oil wave. As well, see how well it worked? Ruble down even more after rate hike? Yeah, keep telling yourself you are correct, while the real world is seeing a different picture.
    Werewolf
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    Post  Werewolf Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:18 pm

    You still ingoring the fact that Central Bank is not RUSSIAN?

    It was founded and set into russian constitution that the Central Bank does not stand for russias interest and russia does not stand for CBR's interest, making the CBR by the russian constitution a private company, protected by russian constitution when the CBR is acting against its obligated duties which are presented in the CBR's functions and constitution overweights this state treaty.

    Stop acting like there are no 5th columnists in private banks, they are there housing and living since decades and that will not change untill some grow some balls and already jail them and take all their private money and federalize it, but one 5th columnist oligarchs backs the other and that is the only reason this scum is powerful, if they would have been just jailed without hearing their "buts" and money "ka-ching" sounds there would be already all heaven.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:46 pm

    Werewolf I respect your political opinions but in economics you know as much as an empty pod.
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    Post  Admin Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:15 pm

    The collapse of the rouble is making my mothers state pension worthless. Im getting her on a plane to stay with us, i will not let her suffer 1998 again.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:16 pm

    Wow and I was just wondering where have you been all this time.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:19 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:The collapse of the rouble is making my mothers state pension worthless.  Im getting her on a plane to stay with us, i will not let her suffer 1998 again.  

    And where are you now? If still in Perm, then good on ya for helping to take care of your mom. Not a lot are willing to do that these days.

    I doubt repeat of 1998 will happen again, but there is a possibility of that or a major economic change that may make transactions nearly impossible into other currencies or prices will go by demand within Russia, not forex. So far, are all prices still listed in Rubles? Or are they now pricing in usd like in 90's? I figure tough times are not here yet.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:28 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:The collapse of the rouble is making my mothers state pension worthless.  Im getting her on a plane to stay with us, i will not let her suffer 1998 again.  

    I'm getting paid in roubles and getting paid no more than I was before; yet my wage is far from worthless, so far it buys me all the same stuff as it used to buy me before; with the exception of a few imported things I buy via mail-order from China or on the Google Play store.

    There will be a correction, and price inflation will certainly take place; so I expect my purchasing power to go down, although I will certainly press for a wage increase to compensate and I imagine the rest of the country will too

    But your panic-mongering is not helpful.
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    Post  Pirey Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:47 pm

    The biggest enemy is fear and panic in these moments. There will not be another 1998.
    My advice is to stay calm. This is attack on the economy of Russia, its not fault of the russian gov, the economy of russia was doing fine even with 3(correct me if i'm wrong in counting) rounds of sanctions from EU/USA.

    This is attack with subjective purpose.
    Regular
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    Post  Regular Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:00 pm

    I agree. What would be really damaging if Russians will start to panic and start exchanging ruble. Opposition media is trying to scare people with doomsday scenarios. Even if Russia plunges back into deep into 90s , then it must likely be an political death to Putin. He simply didn't do his job protecting it from economical warfare. I think political landscape of Russia might change.
    medo
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    Post  medo Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:07 pm

    Most important is, that CBR will not print any new money and that Russia ban any use of USD and EURO.
    Werewolf
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    Post  Werewolf Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:27 pm

    The rate of dollar to rouble shows you that this is all artificially manufactored and not just from one side abroad but also inside = CBR and 5th columnists. Such a devaluation can not happen by normal market not in such a rate.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:44 pm

    Werewolf wrote:The rate of dollar to rouble shows you that this is all artificially manufactored and not just from one side abroad but also inside = CBR and 5th columnists. Such a devaluation can not happen by normal market not in such a rate.

    On cnbc they speculated that someone is attacking the ruble. Some say George Soros.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:04 pm

    Due to volitility of ruble, usdrub trading has closed until further notice. This is outright economic warfare against Russia. So rub cannot be exchanged as of right now, meaning trade outside will be hard.
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    Post  Firebird Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:10 pm

    Some rather suspicious shit going on.
    And how this will play out is rather puzzling too.

    Normal speculators can only speculate so far. Even if their fundamentals are right, they need deep pockets to go "contrarian" ie against the market.

    Russia has:-
    1)Lower oil (and price manipulation)
    2)slight weakening eg Eurocoward sanctions etc.
    3)Another aspect - which seems to be blag ie bullshit driven
    ie market manipulation.

    The US and Britain regularly manipulate markets - LIBOR, Forex etc. And Brent crude is easy to manipulation because its a price worked out from a tiny number of suppliers.

    The dollar basically tries to be a rule unto itself. My guess is that there are scams going on in relation to US oil and gas production. And I think its big banks (like England's) are hiding yet more massive debts. I suspect that the speculative attacks on the ruble and crude oil are by those with *unrealistically* large pockets.

    In other words, the US state is backing these trades. But not with money, with thin air.
    ______________

    My real concern is what can Russia do to counter this.
    It seems to be stopping Russia's idea of having a free float ruble.
    OR perhaps America will have to give up its attacks, and the ruble can be free floating.

    There's also the central bank issue in Russia. Will Putin have a purge? Will it then be a more "internal market" system in Russia?

    Or will Russia ignore NATO and her gimps?

    Russia could seize NATO power assets - because NATO countries have broken the rules of intl trade. It looks like we're seeing economic terrorism against Russia. Perhaps this is all "market hysterics" ie drama that will fade away in the New Year, with a rise in oil prices, and Europe begging for gas.

    Maybe Russia will flood the US with "super dollars" ie fake dollars that even regional Fed Reserve computers cant detect.

    Many unanswered questions..
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    par far

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    Post  par far Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:12 pm

    What can Russia do here? Please answer .

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