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    Russian Economy General News: #3

    Hannibal Barca
    Hannibal Barca

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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:00 am

    It will not work but they can't do anything else anyway just wait for the first weakies to collapse. Probably in Africa and South America.
    Nevertheless might need to try something radical soon enough.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:01 am

    Hannibal Barca wrote:It will not work but they can't do anything else anyway just wait for the first weakies to collapse. Probably in Africa and South America.
    Nevertheless might need to try something radical soon enough.

    So why they do it then? Seems so pointless as it does more harm than good.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:05 am

    For the reason I gave you as an example earlier. Because interest rates have to exceed depreciation rate else I will liquidate and go straight to the Swiss banks....
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:09 am

    Hannibal Barca wrote:For the reason I gave you as an example earlier. Because interest rates have to exceed depreciation rate else I will liquidate and go straight to the Swiss banks....

    I see your point. Someone on zerohedge are saying that it is essentially another way to snuff out bad loans/business. I dunno though. I know many who suffered during 18 - 20% interest rates here in Canada. All loans will now have to come from China or India or alike. Or Government will only hand out loans from venture funds and what not at their preferred rates and you will have to be damn lucky to get that unless you manufacture what they demand.
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    Post  Pirey Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:54 am

    Lets see how the CBR will play it.
    No doubt that this will damage the investment and diversation process in Russia.
    Here, on this topic i found that the gouverment is planning special funds/credit lines with lower rate for medium and big companies.
    Is that true?

    Can we suspect that the newest 17% rate from CBR is a game against the speculators?


    If the people go out that will be bad for Russia, cz the devil knows how to plays maidan scenario.
    The western media just waits for that kind of pressure to show inside of Russia.
    We should bare that in mind too.


    Russians should stay calm, if the rubble go down(which already did) the CBR after some period should lower the rates.
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:59 am

    OK, why not just tie ruble to something then?  Instead of doing all of this, then why not just do what China does and have the currency tied to something and voila, problems of devaluation goes away.  Tie it to Yuan, like for every 1 Yuan, there is 6 Rubles.

    Maybe someone can answer this, because I cant. My wife asked why its value is so low yet Ukrainian Hyrvina and Belarussian Ruble is higher in value? My answer is speculators clearly attacking the Russian currency. But I am not entirely sure what is going on to the currency. Because it really does strike me odd that a country that produces more than both those countries combined, and has a trade surplus, ends up with a lower valued currency.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:14 am

    They already tied it to oil. Is more than obvious and rightly so. They can't tight it to yuan is way too strong.
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:18 am

    Hannibal Barca wrote:They already tied it to oil. Is more than obvious and rightly so. They can't tight it to yuan is way too strong.
    I thought it was free floating? Speculators tied it to oil. How come they cant tie it to anything else?

    Anyway, they need to tie it to something to increase its value, this is getting ridiculous. Or let it collapse further but interest rates being really high isn't really good for development.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:29 am

    If CBR let you believe that speculators did this then thy did a good job Laughing
    Oil accounts for 70% of Russian exports aka with 70% of Russia's interaction with the world.
    Tuning ruble to optimize this transaction is essential for the moment.
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:33 am

    If you think so.  Cause Belarussian Ruble and Hyrvina is worth more than Ruble.  Don't know how that is any better.  And there is growing panic in Russian media over it.  So if there is growing fears, then obviously this isn't a smart move, now is it?  yeah, didn't think so. If it is the case, then why bother raising interests anyway to "strengthen" the currency if it is tied to oil as you say? Makes very little sense, cause it goes in contrary what you are saying. Might as well keep interests low in hopes that investments will come in to battle the export.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:46 am

    Devaluation is no taboo. The _SINGLE_ reason why Eurozone is a living hell is because we can't devaluate.
    Belarussia and Ukraine are no oil exporters.... Ukraine would dream to devalue anyway but Zionists will not let them of course they have to play dollar's game now.
    CBR should control interest rates and bond market and stock prices because she needs to devalue controllable the Ruble for as long as oil depreciates and in the
    same time control capital outflow and look strong and committed so that no panic breaks in the public.
    It's a two front waiting game, a tactical retreat, Putin was right on spot when he parallelized it with the Great Patriotic War.


    Last edited by Hannibal Barca on Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:48 am; edited 1 time in total
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:48 am

    I am curious. Is it really the sign of major economic problems to come if oil prices are down, and so are the consumption from domestic users? What I am getting at is that it was speculated that they (oil companies) would make more from the local demand for petrol would rise as prices sink. Yet, as prices sank, the sales have been down quite a bit at the pump. Do you guys see this as a sign as well? Zerohedge folk do.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:50 am

    There is a substantial chance that 2015 will be a new major global crisis.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:54 am

    Hannibal Barca wrote:Devaluation is no taboo. The _SINGLE_ reason why Eurozone is a living hell is because we can't devaluate.
    Belarussia and Ukraine are no oil exporters.... Ukraine would dream to devalue anyway but Zionists will not let them of course they have to play dollar's game now.
    CBR should control interest rates and bond market and stock prices because she needs to devalue controllable the Ruble for as long as oil depreciates and in the
    same time control capital outflow and look strong and committed so that no panic breaks in the public.
    It's a two front waiting game, a tactical retreat, Putin was right on spot when he parallelized it with the Great Patriotic War.

    OK, thank you for the explanation. Now, what are ways Russia can do to fix the inflation rate for products? I know that prices for Yotaphone are not increasing because the company is taking a hit at the profit margins (since most of the components for it are from Singapore). So what are other ways? Next year, T-Platforms will be releasing their own produced ARM processors so I imagine, over time, it will reduce costs of electronic gadgets in Russia (mobile devices at least) since more domestic companies (hopefully, no guarantee) will use that rather than the alternative from China (since it would be cheaper). Pretty much, import substitution would help fight it. But, no matter how hard Russia will try, they will not be able to make everything, only key items (computers, software, mobile gadgets, semiconductors, etc) and the rest will definitely need to be imported from other countries. So what are some ways to fight this? Now that Ruble is on part with Rupee at the moment, it will make trade cheaper for these two countries. Unless Ruble drops more and then will go to being expensive for Russia.

    There needs to be other methods to fight inflation other than currency value....
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:02 am

    What America Does Not Understand About Russia & Oil

    A good read.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:03 am

    Unfortunately not many things can be done against inflation. The critical is the wages to follow inflation and the unemployment to stay low.
    If this happen and for the moment is happening, then it's a sign that market has enough volatility.
    Such scenario will not be terrible for the average worker it will be bad for those having deposits and for the high end which will try to send capital abroad.
    This must be convinced or subsidized or threatened ( Twisted Evil ) to re-invest domestically and keep money velocity. In stock market like USA did if there is no other way.
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:51 am

    avatar
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    Post  Austin Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:14 am

    Holy God I wake up to 17 % interest rate news , Guess this is to starve of inflation.

    Not sure if this will prevent fall of rouble.

    God Bless Russia russia
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:23 am

    After reading the CBR press release it is clear that many people are confused. The refinance rate is 8.5%. The
    17% is for short term interbank REPO loans. This is a way for the CBR to constrict liquidity in the Russian economy
    without slamming borrowers directly.

    The CBR has not raised the interest rate to 17%. It is still 8.5%.

    But as I posted above. The CBR should not be fighting the exchange rate fall tooth and nail.

    1) The exchange rate will rebound if it goes too far. That is because Russian buyers will sell dollars to get rubles.
    The Russian economy is not imploding so ruble retain their value in real terms. The exchange rate is not a measure
    of ruble value just as it is not a measure of the size of the Russian GDP. Anyone spouting that the exchange rate
    is a direct measure of value is a f*cking retard.

    2) The more the exchange rate falls, the bigger the constriction of imports into Russia. I am talking about
    discretionary consumer goods. From all I can see Russia has a large capacity to respond to demand redirecting
    to domestic suppliers. This has nothing to do with Putin's performance. It is mostly market forces. Here
    is where the CBR should not stick its idiotic nose and mess it up.
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    Post  Austin Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:31 am

    So why is Rouble falling more rapidly then other currency from OPEC or Canada or Norway ? Why arnt speculators attacking those currency ?

    Something seems sinister here , some one is attacking Russian Economy
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    Post  kvs Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:46 am

    Austin wrote:So why is Rouble falling more rapidly then other currency from OPEC or Canada or Norway ? Why arnt speculators attacking those currency ?

    Something seems sinister here , some one is attacking Russian Economy

    Your point is not some counter-example to anything I said.

    If there are sinister forces driving it down, then they are shooting themselves in the foot for the two
    reasons I stated.

    The CBR is creating an artificial shortage of rubles with its REPO rate. The proper response is to let all
    the idiots in Russia who have no confidence in the ruble sell it for dollars. If the CBR wants to fight
    these idiots, then it needs to lobby the government to pass laws restricting the use of dollars in Russia.
    For example, if some monkeys want to do business in dollars, they should face huge fines and/or jail
    time. If they are not happy with such oppression they can bugger off to the USA and use all the dollars
    they can handle.
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    Post  Austin Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:07 am

    My question was not related to your post above it.

    I just wonder lets say hypothetically if Rouble Reaches 100 how will it affect the life of Ordinary Russians ?

    Will it lead to collapse of Russian Economy in some ways ?
    TR1
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    Post  TR1 Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:25 am

    Of course it will. Prices go up. Savings are wiped out. Wages don't adjust quickly enough.

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    Post  Vann7 Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:47 am

    This is why i don't believe in the conspiracies theories about the Russian central bank,
    of wanting to "sabotage russia" economy and in "bed with the IMF".  Why i was skeptic
    about VineSaker interviews with so called "Putin Advisors" and experts..

    Take a look at what the former Economic Minister of Putin ,which he called at one time
    "the best economist in the world".. told about central bank recent decisions about increasing interest rates.

    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/767130

    ----------------
    Russian Economy General News: #3 - Page 12 1075059

    MOSCOW, December 16. /TASS/. Russia's former deputy prime minister and finance minister Alexey Kudrin said the central bank made the right move hiking the interest rate from 10.5% to 17%. “The Central Bank’s decision to raise the rate to 17% is a forced one but correct decision in the current conditions,” Kudrin wrote in his Twitter account.

    ------------------

    So there you have it.. from the horse mouth.. i was sure Putin is not an idiot.. and will allow
    a central bank to destroy Russia without him doing anything.. Basically his comments confirm that what the central bank is doing is in line with what Putin favorite economist will do. Probably
    Russian government prefer that the billionaires who goes abroad to make their money , be sacrificed instead of the average Russian citizen. Central bank is now saying they will be in 2015 allowing the Ruble in free float mode... and only focusing in countering the inflation.

    .
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    Post  Austin Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:35 am

    TR1 wrote:Of course it will. Prices go up. Savings are wiped out. Wages don't adjust quickly enough.


    I suspect the entire Armament program would go for a toss of Rouble does not show healthy recovery in a years time.

    How would savings be wiped our if they have 9 or 16 % interest rate , they are not in ZIRP unlike US

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