Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

SeigSoloyvov wrote:War is being won huh? Syria will remain spilt in half, they will not get their prized oil fields.

Until Ero is gone Syria will not get back the land they control,

The war is won in that Assad isn't going and some objectives for Syria cannot be completed now.

But Assad did not totally win the war he lost like half the war so did Russia and win the other half, same for us we win half and lost half of the war. If you wanna call that total victory be my guest but it's a half glass full situation at best but to be fair to Assad There wasn't much he could do sides that.

Well it doesn't take a genius to see Russia is a clear winner of this war until now and you are clear losers, your own military analysts recognise this. Of course you still manage to harm Syria but as you say due to the balance of forces this was unavoidable.

The important part is that the ME mayhem strategy has been stopped and is in fact being reverted. Not easily, not without resistance but is happening. US' horse lost out in Irak elections too, while Turkey sided with Russia. GCC is split, Saudy Arabia wants the S-400, Trump fucked it up with the whole Muslim world recognising Israeli claims to Jerusalem... yes, the evolution in ME looks fine for you. If your only comfort now is still being capable of harming Syria and its people to avoid them enjoying their victory then it is a pitiful one for US.

not all of Syria's oil fields are in the Kurdish regions.  Maybe half at best.

Compared to 2011, Syria is a hell of a lot better position. Lightyears ahead actually. But it wont be the same as it was prior to 2011. Syria may lose more territory. But if they can collect themselves with what they have now (without continuing to demand their former territory back) and continuous buildup (they can start rebuilding, expanding trade and increasing development - extraction of oil and process of oil byproducts, along with mining, etc) Syria could then rebuild its military and its standing. It could also do so without Russia whom proved to help in the past but has shown its incompetency to the point it is costing Syria now more than its worth.

Isos wrote:US don't care about wining in syria. Neither in iraq. They just bring destruction, take what they want and go away. What did they win in iraq since 2003 ? Nothing. But most of the ressources are exploited by them.

They don't care about civils or local government. They will use those kurds as much as they can and throw them in garbage like they did wwith most south american people, iraqi, south vietnamies ...

Oh yes they do care. They wanted Assad down and didn't achieve it. They wanted Syria's statehood destroyed and SAA disbanded and is exactly the other way around. They wanted to avoid Hezbollah and Iran from establishing a corridor to Lebanon and ended themselves isolated in Al-Tanf. They wanted to use Syria as a giant base for export of terrorism and instead are getting their pool of international jihadists eliminated at massive rates there. They have temporarily the oil fields in East Syria and a foothold in Tanf to continue harassing the country but the long term viability of that situation is not very good: they will need the oil to to sustain an independent Kurdish state so will see little profit from it and even then SAA has a foothold there while the Kurdish negotiate with Assad. Tanf can be progressively contained by SAA and poses a big security risk for US servicemen stationed there for not big strategic purpose, since they didn't manage to block the communications with Irak. As said, they behave like a recalcitrant parasite, refusing to assume their failure. But once the initiative was lost they are in a much weaker position than before and may be forced to give up sooner or later.

What do you guys think out of this one:

https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/09/full-analysis-russian-disinfo-campaign-blames-israel-for-il-20-plane-downing-yet-exonerates-france/

Many of Israel's top defence and intel people are off to Moscow in the morning. Apparently taking with them what they have on Iran's infiltration into Syria and the pre-planning documentation on the latest air raid.

Given the Russian MoD's response to the Il-20 downing, as opposed to Putin's, I can imagine that they will get a pretty icy reception.

JohninMK wrote:Many of Israel's top defence and intel people are off to Moscow in the morning. Apparently taking with them what they have on Iran's infiltration into Syria and the pre-planning documentation on the latest air raid.

Given the Russian MoD's response to the Il-20 downing, as opposed to Putin's, I can imagine that they will get a pretty icy reception.

A mistake of Syrian airdefence against their plane is likely to happen if they pass near syria or even in Russia if they train syrians on s-300. You know a "mistake".

Apparently Russia created a temporary no fly zone for Israel anywhere near Syria and US is telling all its planes to avoid flying over that space..

http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/3173-russia-imposes-no-fly-zone-for-israeli-military-aircraft-around-syria

http://halturnerradioshow.com/images/Sept-2018/US-Navy-NoFly-Info-Mediterranean.jpg

The reason for the call will be for military naval "exercises" of Russia.. for one full week ,but there is also claims IRAN is moving their S-300s air defenses ,they got from Russia ,into Syria..  Hal Turner RAdio news are at times give or take.. many of their reports turn to be correct but some dont.. So use it as reference..

Even more interesting is Russia request of IRAN ,for the deployment of Nuclear capable bombers , in IRAN
for refueling purposes .. So all this movements of Russia if confirmed ,seek to send a message to Israel
and NATO that Russia is ready to take gloves off , if any other hostile actions of any foreign Airforce or warship
towards Russia..   For sure the Russian military can't start a war on their own ,without Putin's authorization ,but
seems the Russian military is deploying in combat formation , and having all pieces together.. so that they
can very quickly react if given the order to start punishing any hostile country that puts at risk the lives of Russian soldiers.. it will be a bad idea for Israel to bomb in lattakia or Tartus close to Russian base now or anytime soon in the future.. no matter the excuse they give..  Russia military patience is over ..and is only Putin what is holding back the decision ,to start fighting back any foreign military attacking Syria and threatening the lives of Russian
soldiers.. The fact that Macron have not travel to Russia ,to personally apologize for launching missiles to Syria ,
, and counter the rumors ,in Russian media being explored ,that French warships could have been the one behind the shot down of the Russian plane.. Is very telling of the major turn around of Macron in their relations with Russia.

The next weeks will be very interesting to see in Syria.. knowing how Israel arrogance works ,they will continue bombing Syria from Jordanian space or from Northen Syria.. and knowing how Russia military things.. they will have to be working in an Ambush for Israel airforce , to be ready for a retaliation in case Putin give the order to the military.. when you have all pieces in place for a counter attack of Russia.. like having the Gun loaded ,aiming in the target direction ,it can facilitate the order for a counter attack..

Finally people should not underestimate the evilness of those attacking Syria , they are capable of staging
a new Malasyan plane crash false flag incident.. with a plane shutdown and later claim Assad did it with Russia help.. and use it as excuse to Bomb Assad residence ,his family and government building in Syria. It was Donetsk leaders who told.. when they enter in the crash zone , in the same day ,they were surprised for the bad smell of the bodies.. as if they where in an advanced state of decay. Something that could only happen if the plane was carrying many death bodies already who died days earlier ,before the plane crash..

Given the pressure that the US is putting on Iran I somehow doubt that any strategic defence asset like the S-300 will be allowed to leave the country given the effort they had to make to get them in the first place. There is a difference between defending the homeland and your allies a few hundred miles away.

Ripped from the comments under the linked article which is an interesting read.

Lone Wolf
19/09/2018 at 3:31 am

“…And they are necessary if the economies of the three countries (he means Lebanon, Syria, Iran)[i] are to flourish rather than wasting all their resources on a useless war with Syria as its platform.”

Which is the correct strategy to counteract what has been the GWOT, a war of attrition against Muslim/Arab countries, or any country in the world for that matter, that has traced an independent, sovereign, self-determining course from the US/Europe, or oppose their land carrier Israel. A war, any war, or a conflict of any magnitude, from low to high intensity, is the warmongering policy that keeps the mil-ind complex churning weapons and ordnance, which need to be used accordingly to satisfy the law of demand and supply, before they become obsolete and unusable. The US congressmen who push for war against Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya, etc., etc., etc., get their PAC money from the mil-ind complex, and their votes from the workers that make the weapons. Their job is to find, create, invent, wars. Their long-life tenures as congressmen depend on that.

Russia knew from the beginning of its intervention in Syria, they didn’t have the strategic capability, yet, to fight an open war against the US/NATO. However, Syria has been a great testing ground for the Russian army R&D and will continue to be as long as the conflict continues. Russia has been playing catch up after the demise of the Soviet Union, and Putin’s primary task has been to rearm and prepare the Russian army for a conflict of any proportion. They are not ready yet, might be by 2025, however, their intervention in Syria was necessary to contain the expansion of the West by proxy to Russia’s vulnerable underbelly, the Caucasus, from where most of the takfiris of Russian origin come from. Against all odds, Russia’s intervention in Syria turned the tide against the takfiri hordes, in Syria and Iraq, and stopped the West/Israel expansionist plans through the creation of a caliphate. Even when Russia has made it clear it is in Syria to protect its strategic interests, its presence in Syria has provided an umbrella for the Axis of Resistance to become stronger, while playing a delicate balancing act.

Russia (finally) delivered the S-300 to Iran, while refusing to provide the same to Syria, placating Israel’s fears for their air force. Iranians have developed their own version of the S-300, but they have also proven to be masters of reverse engineering (remember the RQ-170 Sentinel drone?), and by now they might have their own improved version of the Russian S-300 ready for export, to Syria and Hezbollah. Israel lost the strategic battle against the Axis of Resistance, and is increasingly losing the battle for airspace, hence their fear to contain Iran’s improvement of Syria’s air defenses. Israel endless provocations against Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah, aim at giving the US/NATO a pretext to bomb Iran and Syria back to the stone age. Russia (and China), are militarily incapable of preventing that from happening, short of opening a regional war, which will be fought in Syria, Iran, Lebanon, and possibly Iraq, or a holocaust of greater proportions. A regional conflict will reverse all the gains made so far in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran, will tax the economies of these countries beyond survival, and will set back their development fifty, a hundred years. They will become failed states.

The postponement of the battle for Idlib, though seen as a reverse to the SAA cruising Syria one victory after another, could be a good moment for a pause. The SAA need to consolidate their gains, rebuild their divisions, take appraisal of its forces, rearm and prepare for a better moment to employ its rested forces. “War,” said master Clausewitz, “is the continuation of politics by other means.” Putin has shown again and again, a masterful application of that principle, balancing diplomacy and strength, giving in to get his way. After all, he’s a judo master. Those who have been following the (ongoing) battles in Suwayda and Al-Safa, can extrapolate that to Idlib, and visualize how difficult it would be to dislodge an enemy that has been in that governorate for years. The Syrian army has gained some necessary time to recover, rearm, rest, and recuperate, a well-earned R&R&R&R.

The statement issued by the Russian MoD after the downing of the plane, laying the blame “squarely on Israel,” shows the Russians will not allow their forces to be targeted, or be used as cover for attacks on Syria. They will tighten the screws on Israel, which will reduce even more Israel’s airspace capabilities. Now the Russian S-400 long-range surveillance radar, which covers half of Israel, will be locked on their assess every time an Israeli war plane takes off. Israel is desperate, it’s been supporting a losing proposition, fighting for a delusional “Greater Israel” which can be no more, and its only way out, is the hope for a cataclysmic war against Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, the Axis of Resistance. As long as Putin is at the helm, US/Israel/NATO hope for a regional or total war will remain just that. We hope. [/i]

https://ejmagnier.com/2018/09/18/russia-usa-israel-iran-and-syria-a-continuous-struggle-to-trigger-or-avoid-war/

A sad journey.


Capt(N)
‏ @Capt_Navy
2h2 hours ago

#ВМФ #ЧФ????????#Russian #Navy At the moment the RFS 'Seliger', a special ship (with special equipment for underwater works) Seliger Class transited Dardanelles towards Mediterranean en route to ????????#Syria. She is going to the area of ​​the crash of the IL-20.

I have a strong suspicious , that the truth is not being told , after Persian GIrl , or whatever the name is ,
who support Russia and Syria , was saying there is no way , Russia most advanced counter electronics spy
plane could be hit by a soviet S-200.. The plane have defenses to confuse even more advanced guided missiles
and even if Israel planes hide behind the Russian spy plane.. the plane automatic counter electronics will guide the missile away ,, it also have decoys too.. and the crew had to see the missile launch in their direction ,with the powerful radars so they had plenty of time to do any trick to counter the missile..

My theory and strong suspicious ,is that Americans and France and Israel were behind this attack.. and the Russian military is only blaming one of the authors ,but not France... the whole thing of Macron going to Russia to St Petersburg conference ,and even sending humanitarian aid to Assad.. could have been a show ,to make Putin believe France was a "friend".. to later execute with impunity the plans NATO was making for targeting Russia and Syria. .

In my opinion this operation of the shut down of the Russian plane ,was carefully planned , between US ,Israel and France in that order..  For example.. the Israeli F-16s (and french destroyer) bombing on Syria could be a distraction , the F-16s could have been also carrying suicide drones and deploy them ahead of the flight path of the Russian spy plane that could have been tracked its fly path by French warships. So the Israelis fly ahead of the flight path of the spy plane , and drop hundreds of American mini drones armed with explosives
,waiting for the spy plane to close the distance... and the drones could have thermal sensors ,noise sensors that could detect the noisy plane... and explode all of them on the cabin of the spy plane..killing the pilots instantly..

and Russia military is only blaming one of the participants in the operation.. The mini drones will not be detected well by Russian radars on ground ,only by the spy plane.. and perhaps a record of what the radar of the spy plane saw ,before the impact is still possible to recover...  Whatever this is.. It looks more and more.. France and US
participated in this attack to a Russian spy plane..

One of the things that piss me of of Putin.. is the he is always , Underestimating this enemies , he believe
his israeli "partners" or French "partners" or Americans "partners" will play by the rules like gentlemans..
Putin's as a leader is dangerous for RUssia.. If it was by me ,i will have send escorts.. at least 2 Su-30s.. armed with counter electronics to escort the spy plane and use them as a shield to the spy plane ,if any happy trigger pilot of Israel choose to hit the Spy plane..  When Russia lost planes in Syria ,they are usually alone.. not with escorts.. they lost a Ka-52 hellicopter flying in the border with IRAQ ,in the most dangerous place ,where ISIS armed by NATO could shot it down.. or US coalition planes can target the chopper with a long distance missile from Jordan or IRAQ...and Russia no way to protect it..  

Also Russia is relying to much in counter electronics.. This plane was supposed to evade missiles .. if it was a missile was hit ,, or it it was drones.. it should had decoys to confuse the drones. Putin have ordered a criminal
investigation to the shot down of the spy plane.. i really think ,his incompetence is what allowed this incident to happen.. for always underestimating his enemies..  The biggest Criminal is Putin.. Criminal Incompetence.. if this could be punished in Russia , then Putin will have been arrested long time ago. he always blames others,,but he is the leader.. and he is the one in charge ,of the security of Russia and that their military be properly defended..
If i was a Russian citizen.. there is no way i will send any family member to the military service to Syria..with the so little care ,Putin shows for the life of Russian soldiers..  In wars people die.. but when you send your military
alone into ambush without any cover.. then the problem is of the military and the Government.. For me , it looks
like the SPy plane of Russia was ambushed..By ISrael ,France and US.. many things happened at the same time by coincidence when the Israeli planes was closing the distance to the spy plane . Is also rare that there was no American warships near the French warship.. as a backup ,as a show of force ,that NATO loves to do at any opportunity they can.. So is suspicious indeed.. that the French warship was alone.. so to not raise suspicious of any plot .. France could be behind the shutdown of the plane..and their warships could be the ones guiding
the American kamikazi drones ,released by the Israel airforce , towards the spy plane flight path..

A signature of the participation of NATO in any operation is always.. many events happening at same time , many players in the zone of an attack ,to create confusion.. of who did what or if all participated ..  Warships not only can fire missiles.. they also can be used to guide planes, guide missiles or drones towards any target..

Whatever is the case.. There is no way ,this was an "Accident" like Putin claimed.. All the Russian military clearly blamed Israel for this.. Syria even told that they only target the missiles fired against them.. not the planes..(perhaps for being close a Russian plane) and the Russian military even told Israel covered behind the Spy plane and the MOD of Russia even called Israel shameless and the only one to blame.. So such accusations could never happen from the military unless they are 100% sure Israel did it or was part of the Ambush of their spy plane..the military also have the recordings they had with the spy plane when was hit.. so the people inside will share final information to the Russian military before the plane crash... But there is no way Israel was alone in this.. there will never do anything alone ,without consulting with Americans.. because
they will want to be very Sure.. that if anything goes wrong , that they will have Americans backup and as many players involved in the ambush of a Russian spy plane.. to not be alone on their own.   The investigation of the plane debris ,will clearly show what really happened to the plane.. if it was a missile or a drone..and the angle of attack.. and Russia needs to create a very large perimeter ,around the place.. and suspend any kind of military operations around it.. so the evidence of the crashed plane is not destroyed by NATO or Israel . This does not look in any way... Israel is behind this attack.. and very likely US and France too.. And from now on.. Putin will risk a major military revolt against him.. if he does not authorize Russian military to retaliate if Israel or NATO put at risk again Russian lives..  Trump surprising change of heart for Nord Stream 2.. that will not stop it.and will allow it,. also hint that Americans are scared of Russia retaliation against them.. when discover US was also behind the attack on their spy plane.. this was a clear act of ultimate war.. and NATO and Israel did it ,even knowing very well ,that Russia will know about it.. So major changes will have to happen now in Syria and specially in the Rules of Engament (because i don't think Putin will resign for beign an incompetent) other wise more Russians will die and NATO and Israel will be laughing about it.. and also never again send planes alone anywhere without an escort..
this was also a major mistake too..never underestimate enemies , but with Putin as leader.. anything idiotic thing is possible.   Finally , the Russian Duma is creating new laws ,for censoring of media ,that promote real fake news
or "fake news" (that are true)..  it looks the Russian government is preparing for a major war ..and in such times,,
you can't allow NATO to use Russian media to instigate a revolution in Russia or provoke major panic in the population.. Civilians are never prepared well to deal with a world war 3.. in US and EUrope they will also censor media too.. in case a a major war between US/NATO/Israel vs RUssia start.

Once more this was an ambush to a Russian spy plane.. and Putin weakness and softness could have encouraged them to do this criminal operation..  by israel and extremely likely with France and US key participation. The only question is how exactly it was done.. but it was an ambush ,make no mistake about this.. it was an act of war against Russia.. and Russia either retaliates now or after their investigation of the plane damages.. or they create
at least an exclusive zone , in the Syrian and Lebanese coast and that any military plane who fly over there.. and they believe pose a threat for their security will be shut down.. for proximity to Russian base and Russian military planes.. monitoring the zone.. An exclusive zone that will force Israel or NATO to fire their missiles from far distances..so that Russian warship can easily targets them..

America has lost this conflict... all they can do is create a quagmire... in other words they are going to try to play the waiting game the Afghans do, and the Vietnamese did... and I really don't think they have the patience for it...

The war in Syria is far from over.. Now is more Russia the target and Putin presidency itself too..NATO and Israel goals seems to be now to pressure Russia for negotiations for the disband of the Government of Syria..but also humiliate Russian military as much as possible to provoke a civil war in Russia.. these are their goals.. To send a message to the world ,that any nation who side with Russia, will be destroyed ,regardless if Russia helps them or not. If they can continue to humiliate Russia with more planes shut down.. Putin popularity will sink totally..and or incite communist into provoke a coup against Putin and demand new elections.. perhaps that will be a good thing in the end.. and NATO doing a serious mistake .. by allowing an incompetent President ,like Putin in many ways Is ,to be replaced for a very competent leader.. It will be worse for NATO if a hard line /zero tolerance leader ,takes control of Russia.. But Russia needs much more than a military hardliner in power.. someone with
good knowledge in Business ,in Economy and Capitalism and how most developed western business works.. is important too.. or will bankrupt Russia economy in an arm race. at times it looks like the only way Russia can stop a world war 3.. is with a major Show of Force . like a retaliation of Russia to Israel with a very powerful nuclear attack.., NATO will back down in Syria ,when they know Russia have clearly proved is ready for a big fight against them.. with everything Russia have.... It looks like . Russia can stop a world war 3 ,only with the use of nuclear weapons.. and it will be better to target the one nobody likes , Israel.. than lets say France.. that Russia will need
if ever wants to get Europe closer to Russia.

by sending a very strong message to NATO ,to US and France,(and indirectly to Turkey)  what will happen to them ,if they continue attacking Russia and or Syria.. that they will be next..  There will never be peace in the middle east ,as long Israel is allowed to bomb anyone without consequences. ..Their strong population support their government and the apartheid state they have..shows , removing Netanyahu will not change anything. the entire state needs to be either under submission by Russia by the use of Force.. in one way or another.....  Imagine this.. World war 2 only ended when Germany was stopped by Force.. Russia will have to use nukes to Stop Israel .. and they can do it... and with the support Israel have in US and Europe ,is unlikely they will want to engage in a nuclear war with Russia in defense of Israel.. the Democrats under Obama hated netanyahu , and even befriended IRAN ,at the expense of Israel..and many Republicans don't like Israel either..The day Russia take down Israel..there will be a huge difference ,a major peace in middle east . unfortunately this is the way it looks.
But for me i don't see a world war 3 happening ,between US and Russia.. without Israel not being the first casualty and totally destroyed first. Because Israel major influence over US ,is part of the problem.. they are one of the main reasons the for Russian being forced to help Syria.. and you have the powerful lobbies in Israel demanding their military to bomb Syria at all times.. So there is no way , Israel will remain untouched , in a major confrontation between US and Russia. they will be the biggest losers of all . for being the most active players fueling the war to continue in Syria. .

JohninMK wrote:Given the pressure that the US is putting on Iran I somehow doubt that any strategic defence asset like the S-300 will be allowed to leave the country given the effort they had to make to get them in the first place. There is a difference between defending the homeland and your allies a few hundred miles away.

No need to send their S-300s, the Bavar 373 should be enough.
If it ever gets fielded.

Israel has not been forced to leave syrian air space by modernized syrian AD. It's the presence of russians that complicate their work first because they can't attack russian AD and second because russian radars are connected to syrian AD and they are far better than syrian's.

Syrian suck for air defence. They proved it with the pantsir. And israel could easily destroy syrian AD if russians are not there. They are for the most static and well known by israeli. Buk and pantsir were there before russian came and they achieved 0 israeli jet down.

At then end of the day, israeli have only to launch stand off weapons all day till the air defences are dead and win. Syria can't do much to destroy them.

If syria wants to win against them they need very good air defences system to intercept cruise missiles like pantsir, s-300VM to cover israel and oblige them to fly low (and intercept jericho missiles) then use something like 80/90 Mig-35 plus all the other mig they have and 1 or 2 small awacs to destroy the fighters at low altitudes. 200 or 300 air launched cruise missiles to attack their air bases wouldn't be bad too specialy the kh-38 based grom 1 and grom 2 stand off weapons optimized for mig-35. And another 20 or 30 kh-31 to destroy israeli patriot on the golan.


Big salvos of cruise missiles against a country that use its air force to defend its airspace is the best solution to destroy its air force. Just hit all the aircraft hangars on its airbases at the same time.

@Mindstorm: are the S-200 batteries not linked through the IAD to Russian radars and command centers? One would expect their oversight both for safety reasons and to improve the operational performance of the Syrian AD itself...

Isos wrote:
Syrian suck for air defence. They proved it with the pantsir. And israel could easily destroy syrian AD if russians are not there. They are for the most static and well known by israeli. Buk and pantsir were there before russian came and they achieved 0 israeli jet down. .

First..

The pantsyr Israel destroyed was not operational.. without missiles.. used all of them.. and to make things
worse Russia incompetence did not provided any alternative defense for Syria in case they had a need to reload.
and top they lowered their guard and were making jokes ,when the missile came.. had there was a proper training
or a second battery of Pantsir to cover the one reloading.. this attack will have never happened.. the subsonic drone /missile with TV camera guidance will have been intercepted..  Russia could have also given the syrian army in that military base electronic warfare to blind TV guided missiles.. so many things Russia could have done.. but incompetence of either Putin and Russian military of not properly arming Syria.. caused the  incident.

Second ..
Pantisirs and export version of Buks are short range air defenses.. Israel is bombing Syria from Lebanese airspace and from the sea too.. so this is far away of Syrian modern air defense range.. so you can't judge Syrian Buks or Pantsirs.. when they were only designed to target planes up to 40km away.. so the buk system Syria have are not designed to target planes ,not even world war2 planes ,if they fighting from stand off position.. 50km to 100km away.. or more..  Israel airforce is using Lebanon airspace to hit Syria ,not even invading..Syria airspace.. but also firing from the sea too from far distances.. Hit and run tactics..  So Syria needs long range air defense to target
planes fighting from long range..  basically Israel airfoce is sniping Syria.. and the only missile Syria have
is S-200s to target planes from far distances. up to 300km and even 400km depending on which model..

Third..
Russia providing S-300s to Syria will not automatically help ,unless Syria have major layers of air defense..
that is density in their security.. For Syria to ideally defend it self.. it need to deploy their S-200s in Lebanon territory.. that way Israel will be unable to hide "under the radar belly " behind terrain unless their planes can swim under water.. SO effectively Pushing Israel airforce far away of their missiles combat range. neutralizing all their hug terrain tactics..

If putin managed a diplomatic stunt , of getting permission of lebanon to build a military base close to Israel borders.. it will push Israel farther and could even get the planes from behind ,from their blind spot.. it will seriously complicate Israel airforce tactics..

4th.. and final note..
Air defenses are not supposed to be used alone...  to stay like a sitting duck taking hits... this is not the way
Air defenses are suppose to be used.. you need Airforce to harrass enemy planes too.. and push them farther..
If Syria had a descent airforce it could have shot down many israeli planes , targeting Syria airdefenses.. also force
Israel to load their planes ,with far less bombs.. in order to target air to air planes..


Russia rules of Engagement of allowing Israel to bomb Syria ,and not enforcing Israel to stop doing that,,
is what have allowed Israel to do hit and run tactics against Syria with relative success. If  Russia change its rules
and warn Israel that any new attack on Syria will be retaliated by Russia and Syria no matter the distance their planes are.. this will be a totally different thing.. if Russia enforce a no fly zone anywhere near Syria to Israel..
military it will effectively neutralize Israel airforce..capabilities to hit anything in Syria.. Because... The S-400s can push israel planes 400km away from Syria.. So only Cruise missiles from warships can still continue the attacks..
and if Russia use its airforce to enforce and nobomb zone in any part of Syria.. then it can also push far away the warships 1500km away from Syria..  This is beyond NATO cruise missiles range..

So Russia Tolerant Rules of engagement is what allows Syria to be bombed.. Russia have chosen to play a game
with NATO and Israel  only to avoid a direct fight with them.. and this is what caused the killing of their serviceman.. So no matter which airdefenses you give Syria.. S-400 and S-500.. if Russia don't enforce a no fight zone.. then it will be Pointless.. because Putin allows Israel to get withing 50km of Russia base to attack Syria..
so the flaw is not Russia military equipment.. the flaw is Putin's politics and rules of engagement..  he created a Russia as a semi independent nation of the west.. as a follower of the American/European banking  system.. and now is paying a big price for this.. that it can't defend Russia interest in the world properly , for fear of economic isolation of Russia from US and Europe..

You have also Americans controlling parts of Syria ,near jordan border. so from there they can target any Syrian military base. from short distance.. So if Syria controlled all its borders..and had a descent airforce.. to push enemy planes away from Syria.. it will be a very different story. and Neither ISrael will be able to launch glide bombs anywhere in Syria..  So you can't solve Syria security problems with technology alone.. Syria needs to control all its borders to push back further NATO and Israel from Syrian borders and. Russia rules of engagement needs to be changed too.. and demand israel to stop bombing Syria or will reserve the right to shutdown their planes ,whenever it feels put at risk the lives of their military , that it will not allow again Any Israel plane to fly anywhere
close to theirs.. a keep your distance zone..  Ban Israel military  flights anywhere Lebanon airspace or Syrian waters..

"@Mindstorm: are the S-200 batteries not linked through the IAD to Russian radars and command centers? One would expect their oversight both for safety reasons and to improve the operational performance of the Syrian AD itself..."

of course they are connected.. Russia military base are the eyes of Syria air defenses.. they provide Syria with information of all Russian planes at all times but also israel and NATO planes... so that Russian planes are not shot down.. So is a big lie that Syria shutdown the Russian plane.. this was some missile or drone from Israel airforce or French frigate.

I've just read an interesting article about IL-20 incident, it's worth reading:

http://thesaker.is/some-fast-thoughts-on-il-20-andrei-martyanov/

littlerabbit wrote:I've just read an interesting article about IL-20 incident, it's worth reading:

http://thesaker.is/some-fast-thoughts-on-il-20-andrei-martyanov/

Already posted it

I've just read an interesting article about IL-20 incident, it's worth reading:

http://thesaker.is/some-fast-thoughts-on-il-20-andrei-martyanov/

He sounds like an apologer of the Israel government..
And anyone who says it was shot down by Israel a "conspirational theories nuts"

When all the Russian military accused Israel directly of the shot down of the plane , and the MoD
went as far as saying It was Israel the only one to blame and that Russia reserve response..
But the Weak President of Russia Putin.. that was not in Syria and did not saw what happened ,told
"it looks like an accident" clearly contradicting what many Top generals told... Neither the MOD
or the Commander of Syria operations will have spoken openly in Public so critic of Israel if they were
not completely sure Israel was responsible for the shot down of the plane and that they intentionally
did it.. For all those that thinks Syria did not know what happens in Syria airspace and what fly and where, and that Russia did not share information from their radars to Syria..are completely nuts... when Trump attacked
Syria , since there,, the Russian airforce was providing Syria with radar information 15 minutes at least ahead before the missiles reach Syria ,since they were fired from very long distances.. So there is no way in hell ,
the Russian Military who fly all over Syria will not provide live by second information on the position of their planes.. to avoid any accident and so that Syria can know which plane are theirs and which plane is not.. otherwise
how is Syria going to know which plane is from Israel ? and which plane is from Russia? Non sense.. Russia provide the syrian military at all times ,location of their planes in the air.. so why would Russia do that? So to avoid an accident and not get their planes shutdown,,thinking was from israel.. So maybe Russia don't give IFF technology to Syria.. but in one way or another ,they have to provide Syria with a way to know which planes are the good guys and which planes are the bad ones.. If Russia don't do that.. it risk Syrian military to shot down Russian planes... So is total mental Insanity to suggest that Syrian army had no way to differentiate and IL20 Russian plane and israel F-16 . Because that will only means Russia did not cared at all , of their planes being shot down by accident by Syria military. Is no sense that Russian pilots will fly over Syria ,without having a kind of mechanism to
let Syrian military know ,which planes are from Russia and which planes are from NATO or Israel... so people who suggest ,Syrians were blind and had no way to know which planes who fly over Syria.. are Russians or from foreign nations.. are completely mistaken.. This is basic security 101.. Is very possible Russia invented the S-200 theory,
to have the freedom to claim it was an accident. But Israel shot it down , and did it intentionally.. and the Russian military will have not spoken so angry and openly against Israel unless they were 100% sure they did it.. even the
minister of defense later retract their claims... it could be explained by Putin desire to have the option to retreat and do nothing ... for being scared about starting a war..


Btw..

Anyone knows how many IL-20's Russia have , that have similar spying capabilities of electronic intelligence ?
or the plane shot down was the only one Russia had in service ?

Aviation of the Navy - 2 Il-20RT and 2 Il-22, as of 2016
The air and space forces - 15 Il-20M, 5 Il-22 and 12 Il-22M and 5 Il-22, as of 2016 https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%98%D0%BB-20#%D0%9D%D0%B0_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B8

There'll be 3 (possibly more later) IL-22PPs:
https://vpk-news.ru/news/33210

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

LMFS wrote:@Mindstorm: are the S-200 batteries not linked through the IAD to Russian radars and command centers? One would expect their oversight both for safety reasons and to improve the operational performance of the Syrian AD itself...

Well Russia tried to say that the S-200 battery wasn't equipped or link with IFF systems which is a rather huge BS lie on their part.

Now you got the Russians government making up excuses for Isreal for killing their own guys, man this just gets better has time goes on.

USS Liberty 2.0

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

LMFS wrote:@Mindstorm: are the S-200 batteries not linked through the IAD to Russian radars and command centers? One would expect their oversight both for safety reasons and to improve the operational performance of the Syrian AD itself...

Well Russia tried to say that the S-200 battery wasn't equipped or link with IFF systems which is a rather huge BS lie on their part.

Now you got the Russians government making up excuses for Isreal for killing their own guys, man this just gets better has time goes on.

They don't share IFF codes with SAA. If they are leaked russia will have to change all of them on all the aircraft.

Connection between russian and syrian AD can't be very good as they are not unified. They probably have connection between the big command posts but then between the syrian command post and the fire batteries I doubt there are russians looking what they are doing.

So something like that is totally possible to happen. They should have made a no fly zone around their assests and tell the iranian/hezbollah/syrian to do their shit far away as they don't support them in their war against israel. And also tell israel to stay out of that area. Destruction of those f-16 should have been done to make sure they understand that.


They also have only 4 su-35 there. A mistake from russian MoD. They have plenty of mig in russia that they don't know what to do with. They could have send some SMT for patroling and escorting.