Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #8

I'm pretty sure (Though, I can't currently find it) it was stated, that the Russian support would not be long term, and would only last a few months. Which, it has.

Haahahahahah. They will withdraw from Syria like they never were in Ukraine. The main deal for Russia was to level the playing field. The interesting part of it is that Iran hasn't said a word. Zip.

So basically they will not stop the ass kicking. There's way too much hardware for the 3000 Russians that were there. So that Hardware will stay. Check the Syrian Express for more details. Also the idea that the war is done for, is premature. Isis is being pushed back from Iraq, slowly but surely. They will try and spill over to Syria, which currently is in the middle of a feud between Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda Light. It's very clear to me what Putin wants. It wants the people who need exterminating to understand that the time is nigh. Period.

Not sure what the plan is here. I personally stated previously that I thought Putin's aim would be to secure the Alawite heartland rather than the entire country. One thing that struck me is that the whole tone of the war changed after the North Aleppo offensive. My guess is that it was extremely bloody even for the Iranians and that it was realized it would be impossible to claw back the whole country that way.

Who knows, though. Maybe something bigger is lurking around the corner, but I doubt it. I think Syria is headed for partition.

par far wrote:

Boban wrote:http://lifenews.ru/news/190236

Looks like they are going to withdraw everything.

So why do you think Russia is chickening out now?

To avoid a full scale war with Syrian neighbors that could see nuclear weapons used.
in defense of a nation that in practical terms have no future and is already doomed and
will have to be carried out by Russia economy the small territory they control.

another possibility could be that Russia seeks to pressure Syria to give kurds their independence.
Something that Europe and Americans support. That create a  direct conflict between US and Europe with Turkey that does not wants to see kurds becoming a nation and threaten to split its own nation too. .

Who knows, though. Maybe something bigger is lurking around the corner, but I doubt it. I think Syria is headed for partition.

It will be impossible for Russia to secure Syria from being split with a small force of 2,000 soldiers and 30 planes ,when you have NATO and most of middle east attacking Syria directly with military aid or indirectly with political cover to US,Turkey ,Saudi Arabia and Israel. The only way Russia could retake all Syria territory and defend its borders and more importantly Hold it ,is with a full scale invasion and replace the Syrian army..but who is going to pay for that? Don't think Russians citizens will be ready to sacrifice Russia economy collapse and its future development for muslin government friendly to them in Syria.  What i think Russia will do is more undercover support ,with private military. means an Official Retreat of their small military force ,and replace it for private mercenaries but with very limited air force support.

I also think Russia will like to see compromises from Syria and allow kurds to have its own land.
Because that will allow Russia to reverse the NATO game.. and give Turkey is own "Syria revolution". Replicate the proxy war in Syria towards Turkey. and that will bleed Turkey economy and will also split their nation if IRAN and Russia began to provide modern weapons to them.

For me it looks like the Syrian conflict will only end ,when Erdogan removed from power ,
and a friendly government to Syria replace it. Because Erdogan survibility depends on its cooperation with Americans and US will never stop in trying to destroy Syria. Even if officially
they do it.. the CIA can continue the war undercovertly arming terrorist to fight Assad. Lets not forget that the Chechen war lasted like 10 years with Saudis financing chechens. So thats more or less the time Syria will need to face to really see the end of the war.

Putin must not forget who blew up a Russian airliner and killed hundreds of passengers in cold blood. Putin must not forget who shot down a Russian Su-24 by ambush and killed a Russian pilot in cold blood after he parachuted. He has no authority to stop fighting IS without giving the Russian public an explanation, unless he thinks he's an absolute monarch who can do whatever he wants.

Militarov wrote:Yeah, confirmed, Russians are to start their retreat tomorrow.

Sure sounds like it.

I wonder why, something must have happened we didn't hear about.

I read an interesting comment online. It says that if shit gets serious in Syria it is always easier to bring in the troops than look weak and withdraw them.

The advantage Russia has it is that it takes a second to make a decision. I mean nobody, even the Israelis knew that Russia is going to stop bombing. I am sure that the speed of Putin's decisions and the speed at which Russia can move the armed forces and make unpredictable moves scares the west.

I mean who knows what Russia will do next?

PapaDragon wrote:

auslander wrote:
As Ded'ya Drakon said, ..........

Now I just have to figure out how to change my name into this.    

дед дракона or отец дракона

zorobabel wrote:Not sure what the plan is here. I personally stated previously that I thought Putin's aim would be to secure the Alawite heartland rather than the entire country. One thing that struck me is that the whole tone of the war changed after the North Aleppo offensive. My guess is that it was extremely bloody even for the Iranians and that it was realized it would be impossible to claw back the whole country that way.

Who knows, though. Maybe something bigger is lurking around the corner, but I doubt it. I think Syria is headed for partition.

Actually the North Aleppo Offensive was far more fruitful with less casualties proportionally than the fucked up Nth Hama disaster. The Russians need more time to get things done. We've been talking about how the SAA needs to go full pro (to a ME level) on its approach to war. But it is plagued by a level of choke-points, mainly political and social.

Just had a look at the Syrian Express movements and, unless there is a whole bunch of ships heading south across the Black Sea at the moment, they seem to have definitely slowed in the last week. I get this from the LLC transits, the Russian Merchant Marine is not monitored in the same way.

This could be as simple as the crews of the LLC getting some rest and/or the ships getting maintenance, I doubt they were designed to work like they have over the last six months.

Or that the non military ships are now really pulling their weight, especially if most of the heavy gear like tanks etc are now in theatre so that heavy RO-RO attribute of the LLC is not so needed.

Putin's statement today could have been planned a while back.

I actually believe, when i think with a clear head now that Russia ran out of strategic targets. Now it's time for Smerch and Buratino to take over. I believe that SAA will still get close air support with helicopters and some SU-25.

And also you all remember the news that Syrian aviation is in much better shape now.

The problem is that terrorist will see this as victory and do more stupid things. I mean they were scared dead by the sound of planes 24/7.

Still i don't get why the pullout of forces, they could have stayed in bases and the planes can just stay in Syria as well as they stay in Russia.

Transnistria could be attacked by Moldova at any moment. Abkhazia and South Ossetia could be attacked by Georgia at any moment. Novorossiya would be attacked by Ukraine at any moment. Assad part of Syria could be attacked by rebels at any moment. North Korea could be attacked by South Korea at any moment. No peace treaty has every been signed in any of these places. The more frozen conflicts Russia creates, the harder it will be to defend. Not to mention, the US has Russia in its sights. The US plans a coup in Russia like they did in Ukraine.

And let's not forget. The next US president is most likely Trump. He says he will deploy 30,000 soldiers to fight IS in Syria. If the US gets a foothold in Syria, what's Putin going to do, back off and leave Syria?

Trump is no Obama. Putin does not dare to confront Trump. That guy talks big, acts big.

Boban wrote:I actually believe, when i think with a clear head now that Russia ran out of strategic targets. Now it's time for Smerch and Buratino to take over. I believe that SAA will still get close air support with helicopters and some SU-25.

And also you all remember the news that Syrian aviation is in much better shape now.

The problem is that terrorist will see this as victory and do more stupid things. I mean they were scared dead by the sound of planes 24/7.

Still i don't get why the pullout of forces, they could have stayed in bases and the planes can just stay in Syria as well as they stay in Russia.

Strategic targets? There are plenty of them. In Idlib Alone there's a whole range of targets around the outer Idlib salient. They were treated only lightly, because the front wasn't at the Idlib border. Now that slowly but surely the Syrian are edging the Idlib wilayet, the Russians stop the ground ops, because they need to know what's going on at the other side. The cost of these 6 months is surely about a billion USD (although the MO has swapped training programs with live fire programs in Syria, thus negating any overspending). Casualties almost non-existant and not a single security breach.

The issue however stands with the SAA. Unless you want NovoSyria.

Part of the reason for ceasefire and withdraw is bad performance on the part of SAA. The Allies beat the Axis within 4 years in WW2. SAA failed to even take Kabani, Hayat, Nawarah in Latakia province after more than 6 months. If Syrians don't care about liberating their own country, why should anyone else care? You make your bed. You sleep in it. No one will help cowards who don't dare to fight.

ultron wrote:Part of the reason for ceasefire and withdraw is bad performance on the part of SAA. The Allies beat the Axis within 4 years in WW2. SAA failed to even take Kabani, Hayat, Nawarah in Latakia province after more than 6 months. If Syrians don't care about liberating their own country, why should anyone else care? You make your bed. You sleep in it. No one will help cowards who don't dare to fight.

There were stalls couple months long during WW2 on all fronts during those 4,5 years. And it was whole world vs Germany and Italy and few smaller allies like Hungary and Croatia... war in Syria is tiny compared to WW2 and shares very little in common. You can rather compare it with war in Yugoslavia 1991-1995.

Don't forget Russia still refuses to give the MiG-29M2 and Yak-130 Syria ordered before 2011. Syria has like no air force left. Only a few MiG-21s are still functional but they are basically death traps for MANPADS.

My favourite

Vann7 wrote:

par far wrote:

Boban wrote:http://lifenews.ru/news/190236

Looks like they are going to withdraw everything.

So why do you think Russia is chickening out now?

To avoid a full scale war with Syrian neighbors that could see nuclear weapons used.
in defense of a nation that in practical terms have no future and is already doomed and
will have to be carried out by Russia economy the small territory they control.

another possibility could be that Russia seeks to pressure Syria to give kurds their independence.
Something that Europe and Americans support. That create a  direct conflict between US and Europe with Turkey that does not wants to see kurds becoming a nation and threaten to split its own nation too. .

Who knows, though. Maybe something bigger is lurking around the corner, but I doubt it. I think Syria is headed for partition.

It will be impossible for Russia to secure Syria from being split with a small force of 2,000 soldiers and 30 planes ,when you have NATO and most of middle east attacking Syria directly with military aid or indirectly with political cover to US,Turkey ,Saudi Arabia and Israel. The only way Russia could retake all Syria territory and defend its borders and more importantly Hold it ,is with a full scale invasion and replace the Syrian army..but who is going to pay for that? Don't think Russians citizens will be ready to sacrifice Russia economy collapse and its future development for muslin government friendly to them in Syria.  What i think Russia will do is more undercover support ,with private military. means an Official Retreat of their small military force ,and replace it for private mercenaries but with very limited air force support.

I also think Russia will like to see compromises from Syria and allow kurds to have its own land.
Because that will allow Russia to reverse the NATO game.. and give Turkey is own "Syria revolution". Replicate the proxy war in Syria towards Turkey. and that will bleed Turkey economy and will also split their nation if IRAN and Russia began to provide modern weapons to them.

For me it looks like the Syrian conflict will only end ,when Erdogan removed from power ,
and a friendly government to Syria replace it. Because Erdogan survibility depends on its cooperation with Americans and US will never stop in trying to destroy Syria. Even if officially
they do it.. the CIA can continue the war undercovertly arming terrorist to fight Assad. Lets not forget that the Chechen war lasted like 10 years with Saudis financing chechens. So thats more or less the time Syria will need to face to really see the end of the war.

You don't go in Syria or any other war before you have covered all your points(Russia knew from the start, when they got involved in Syria that it would lead to a bigger war with US), the question I have is why, save Syria in the first and leave when you are winning? Why did Russia do that? First save Syria and then leave for it to be taken over? If you were not going to stay until the end, why save Syria in the first, just let her meet her fate. This makes no sense what so ever, when the NAF had the rats cornered in the Debaltseve pocket, Putin called for a cease fire and now again in Syria, why did Putin do that? Did he think the west would be friends with him again if he did that, if he did, then he is wrong.

*waits to see if people here have a sense of humor*

Militarov wrote:

My favourite

Full of Sh*T Assh*les fail to realize that the VKS is bombing targets from 5-6km's in altitude, well beyond the engagement range of any MANPAD's deployed.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-withdraws-ground-troops-not-air-force/

Don't panic. Russia will only withdraw ground troops around Hmeimim air base, not air force, which will stay there to bomb terrorists. Syrian army is getting ready for larger offensive in Palmyra region to reach Deir Er Zor and in eastern Aleppo to reach Euphrates river and they will need RuAF support, specially their night attacks on terrorist convoys.

magnumcromagnon wrote:

Militarov wrote:

My favourite

Full of Sh*T Assh*les fail to realize that the VKS is bombing targets from 5-6km's in altitude, well beyond the engagement range of any MANPAD's deployed.

Thing is that, Strela 2Ms and FN-6s are more than common in Syria and Iraq, even if they were delivering them, they would make significant impact by now.

magnumcromagnon wrote:

*waits to see if people here have a sense of humor*

If the 'mission' was to destroy America, then he (and his golfing buddy Obomber) have done a pretty good job

Militarov wrote:

My favourite

That makes sense. Use Smerch. 300 mm. 90 km. That's nothing planes can do Smerch cannot.