medo wrote:sepheronx wrote:medo wrote:par far wrote:Do you guys think that Russia will do air strikes inside Syria using Russian air force fighter jet?
I doubt, if they send some pilots, they will fly Syrian Su-24M and MiG-29 planes. I think, they are expanding Latakia airport to provide more supplies through the air, or when Syria will fall, to evacuate as much Syrian soldiers as possible I think Syria will fall to ISIS and NATO next year and even Russian and Iranian help could not prevent it. Syrian army is running out of everything, specially troops and on the other side is a whole NATO and gulf monarchies. As Vanga said, Syria will fall at the feet of the winner, but this will not be the winner. After the fall of Syria, big war between east and west will start. Anyway, fall of Syria will bring destruction to Europe and this will start next year. Those refugees are not all refugees.
Do you have exact numbers? Last I checked, Assad still controls 1/3 of the country and has all access to the med. You cannot block the Bosphorus due to agreements and if Turkey decides to break those agreements, expect a shitstorm you wouldn't believe.
I have a different theory. My theory is that Russia will help Assad build a new Syria, separate from the other Syria. A Syria where he still controls and has power. That Syria would eventually grow with the number of secular people moving there. But all in all, he isn't running out of weapons as Russia and Iran have both been sending weapons. Hezbollah fighters are still in Syria fighting as well. I suspect their numbers are still quite high.
Few months ago Assad himself said, that Syrian army already lost half of its soldiers and they control less and less territory, where they could mobilize more reserves. Even if Turkey will not close Bosphor, NATO could install naval blockade, that russian ships could not enter to Syrian port. NATO also control Iraqi air space under the disguise of attacks on ISIS. US decided to stop russian help to Syria and they could do this, because all neighbor states are US allies and many are NATO members on the route. Against Syria is not only ISIS, but whole NATO. Syria simply doesn't have resources to last for another year. Hezbollah is too small and will not be enough, Russia and Iran are too far away and have no border contact with Syria, what means ISIS on the ground and NATO in the air could prevent their supplies through Iraq.
This is difficult to say, but Syria will fall in coming months. They fight bravely for four years for their country and supplies comming to the last day possible only show, that Iran and Russia didn't turn their backs to Syria and betray them. Syria is encircled by the enemies and Assad will soon have to leave Syria or he will face the same destiny as Gadafi. Syrian army will have to leave Damask as soon as possible and move to Latakia, that they will not bu cut from Mediteranean coast. From there Russian and maybe even Chinese ships could evacuate remains of Syrian army, which will be later able to return to Syria. Question now is only, how much of Syrian army could be saved for war after the fall of Syria.
What blockade? You think NATO would try to stop Russian ships going somewhere in international or Syrian waters?
I doubt Syria will fall soon, they're holding the line after all, even if they don't have the resources to take all their territory back.
It probably won't be necessary to rely on supply via the Mediterranean either; as mentioned here already, Iraq is completely in debt to Iran and is subject to its influence, moreover, American demands or not - but blocking Russian transports to Syria would go against its interests in every single way; not only in fostering strong ties with Russia, but even more importantly for the sake of its own survival - Russian support to Assad goes to fight against the very same enemy that Iraq itself is fighting; only from the other side. If Assad falls, ISIS can quickly absorb/conquer the smaller groups in Syria and would then be able to turn its full attention and jihadist horde East against Iraq - plunging the later into a desperate situation.
I hardly think that Iraq would go against its very own survival interests in such a fundamental way, no matter what US demands are put forth.
Hence the Mozdok-Iran-Iraq-Syria air corridor ought to be fine for the purpose.