BKP wrote:Latest post on Martyanov's blog:
INTERMITTENT SUMMARY: So it is clear mow that IAF used the oldest trick in the book by shielding her aircraft by IL-20 which was descending for landing--so very Israeli--and then, of course, lied that it warned Russian side. Yes...one minute prior. I will return to Israel later, for now it is known that Bibi wants to speak with Putin and that Israel is engaged with Russia across a whole spectrum of diplomatic, military, what have you, activity trying to prevent what might be coming.
Having said all that. The part of the blame rests with Syrian AD and specifically with those operators who launched S-200. There is very little doubt that IL-20s IFF (Interrogation Friend-Foe) system was on and that would have necessitate a much more stringent ROE. It didn't work. So, Russian AD specialists may want to introduce additional rules (or caveats) for the whole complex in Syria. After this event it will be easier to control Syrian part. Russian side also bears responsibility. Now back to Israel.
The most important part in all that is that unlike previous statements from General Rudskoi, Defense Minister Shoigu's statement today carries much more weight and Shoigu directly made Israel responsible for the situation. So, what's in store now? For starters, I think, a lot depends on what Bibi will be willing to give Russia. If not much, the game changes and, indeed, all kinds of scenarios, from No-fly Zone to Syria getting S-300, or simply additional Russian-operated S-300 and S-400 appearing in Syria, to who knows what else. Israel is not in a very good situation right now and the only thing they may do is to place the blame on someone else (i.e. Syria). It is a sad day for Russia and, of course, I can only imagine what kind of agony relatives of IL-20 crew are going through right now but highly sensitive personal aspect of this unnecessary tragedy should not obscure a very obvious fact of Israel's treachery (what's new?) and the price it will pay one way or another. What price is it going to be? We'll see in time.
UPDATE: Putin's quote:
Russia will investigate the incident, Putin said, adding that Moscow will boost security of Russian troops in Syria following the incident. He said that these will be “the steps that everyone will notice.”
They should have scrambled fighter jets. SAM is very dangerous to use when friendly planes are in the sky.