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    Syrian War: News #18

    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:54 pm

    BKP wrote:Latest post on Martyanov's blog:

    INTERMITTENT SUMMARY:  So it is clear mow that IAF used the oldest trick in the book by shielding her aircraft by IL-20 which was descending for landing--so very Israeli--and then, of course, lied that it warned Russian side. Yes...one minute prior. I will return to Israel later, for now it is known that Bibi wants to speak with Putin and that Israel is engaged with Russia across a whole spectrum of diplomatic, military, what have you, activity trying to prevent what might be coming.

    Having said all that. The part of the blame rests with Syrian AD and specifically with those operators who launched S-200. There is very little doubt that IL-20s IFF (Interrogation Friend-Foe) system was on and that would have necessitate a much more stringent ROE. It didn't work. So, Russian AD specialists may want to introduce additional rules (or caveats) for the whole complex in Syria. After this event it will be easier to control Syrian part. Russian side also bears responsibility. Now back to Israel.

    The most important part in all that is that unlike previous statements from General Rudskoi, Defense Minister Shoigu's statement today carries much more weight and Shoigu directly made Israel responsible for the situation. So, what's in store now? For starters, I think, a lot depends on what Bibi will be willing to give Russia. If not much, the game changes and, indeed, all kinds of scenarios, from No-fly Zone to Syria getting S-300, or simply additional Russian-operated S-300 and S-400 appearing in Syria, to who knows what else. Israel is not in a very good situation right now and the only thing they may do is to place the blame on someone else (i.e. Syria). It is a sad day for Russia and, of course, I can only imagine what kind of agony relatives of IL-20 crew are going through right now but highly sensitive personal aspect of this unnecessary tragedy should not obscure a very obvious fact of Israel's treachery (what's new?) and the price it will pay one way or another. What price is it going to be? We'll see in time.

    UPDATE: Putin's quote:
    Russia will investigate the incident, Putin said, adding that Moscow will boost security of Russian troops in Syria following the incident. He said that these will be “the steps that everyone will notice.”

    They should have scrambled fighter jets. SAM is very dangerous to use when friendly planes are in the sky.
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    Post  Stealthflanker Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:55 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:The news I read was the Il-20 was shot down by the SAA AD in the middle of an Israeli air raid.  The SAA says they were trying to shoot down incoming missiles but I don't see how you mistake an Il-20 for one of those.  

    Well if they do use S-200. Then it would be resolution problem.

    Even X-band narrow beamwidth radar like the 5N62 will have quite large resolution cell which can be exploited. At 150 km range the typical range of S-200. The 5N62 will have like 2576 m x 2576 m Resolution cell (assume 1.4 degrees of beamwidth) The range resolution is probably big too so.. the F-16 can be like 1000m above the Il-20 and unresolved.

    The missile will simply go to the center of it..and pick one with biggest return. or average the return and go to center which could be the Il-20.
    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:56 pm

    Overall, it was Russia's fault for letting Israel bomb Syria on a daily basis. Sooner or later someone will pay with their lives. Obviously.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:12 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Navalny isn't opposition. Opposition requires more than 2% lol

    Anyway

    https://twitter.com/RussiaInsider/status/1042055162418741248?s=19

    Russia Insider used to be very pro-Putin just a few years ago. Lately they have turned a lot more critical towards him.

    Oh yeah, just type in 'Grandmaster' into their search engine; back 1-2 years ago they were all hailing him as this Grandmaster that checkmates the West at every move.

    lol
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    Post  Stealthflanker Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:43 pm

    ultimatewarrior wrote:

    They should have scrambled fighter jets. SAM is very dangerous to use when friendly planes are in the sky.

    The biggest question.. where were Syrian Air Force ? Their Su-24 and Su-22 are airborne bombing the terrorists but where were those shiny MiG-29's ?

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    Post  ultimatewarrior Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:52 pm

    Stealthflanker wrote:
    ultimatewarrior wrote:

    They should have scrambled fighter jets. SAM is very dangerous to use when friendly planes are in the sky.

    The biggest question.. where were Syrian Air Force ? Their Su-24 and Su-22 are airborne bombing the terrorists but where were those shiny MiG-29's ?


    Probably out of commission. They ordered MiG-29 M / M2 before the war but Russia refuses to deliver them on the pretext there is war in Syria.
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    Post  Stealthflanker Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:56 pm

    ultimatewarrior wrote:
    Probably out of commission. They ordered MiG-29 M / M2 before the war but Russia refuses to deliver them on the pretext there is war in Syria.

    They have upgraded their old MiG's. now with capability to support RVV-AE. So it's perfectly working and there were occassions where these planes fly with Russians and harass Turkey AF's.

    sounds like it's more of political than the capability.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:02 pm

    Stealthflanker wrote:
    ultimatewarrior wrote:
    Probably out of commission. They ordered MiG-29 M / M2 before the war but Russia refuses to deliver them on the pretext there is war in Syria.

    They have upgraded their old MiG's. now with capability to support RVV-AE.  So it's perfectly working and there were occassions where these planes fly with Russians and harass Turkey AF's.

    sounds like it's more of political than the capability.

    Seems to be. Russia took the Jableh air base for their own use. They are supposed to scramble their Su-35. Which they didn't.
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    Post  Neutrality Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:11 pm

    I understand people from both sides, those who want a full blown retaliation and those who are cautious (no one in their right mind wants a WW3)

    I seriously hope something's being done that doesn't bring us to a catastrophy but damages Israel and their NATO allies in the vicinity. Right now I'm thinking about a no fly-zone.
    All planes that are not related to Russia's allies will be shot down upon entering said zone, no excuses.

    Israel rolled the dice on this one...
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    Post  Isos Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:16 pm

    Neutrality wrote:I understand people from both sides, those who want a full blown retaliation and those who are cautious (no one in their right mind wants a WW3)

    I seriously hope something's being done that doesn't bring us to a catastrophy but damages Israel and their NATO allies in the vicinity. Right now I'm thinking about a no fly-zone.
    All planes that are not related to Russia's allies will be shot down upon entering said zone, no excuses.

    Israel rolled the dice on this one...

    Then Israel will keep launching cruise missiles and russia will seem even more weaker.
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    Post  Neutrality Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:23 pm

    Isos wrote:
    Then Israel will keep launching cruise missiles and russia will seem even more weaker.

    Fair enough but at least Russia will be targetting and shooting them down with ZERO fucks given this time. Will be a good target practice exercise too.

    With that having said, Israel will have to make a decision: waste way more resources to achieve their goals, angering Russia even more in the process or cooperate and coordinate with Russia this time.

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    Post  Isos Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:31 pm

    Neutrality wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    Then Israel will keep launching cruise missiles and russia will seem even more weaker.

    Fair enough but at least Russia will be targetting and shooting them down with ZERO fucks given this time. Will be a good target practice exercise too.

    With that having said, Israel will have to make a decision: waste way more resources to achieve their goals, angering Russia even more in the process or cooperate and coordinate with Russia this time.


    Russian air defence systems are static in syria. Israel knows where they are and where they can go to escape them just like yeserday.

    You can't punish with defence tactics, either they attack with tupolevs and make a clear message to everyone either they shut up and it will happen again with turks staying in afrin, US bombing "chemical" buildings, japan starting to fly over kurils, china looking Siberia from the border with a weired look ...
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    Post  Neutrality Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:35 pm

    Isos wrote:
    You can't punish with defence tactics, either they attack with tupolevs and make a clear message to everyone either they shut up and it will happen again with turks staying in afrin, US bombing "chemical" buildings, japan starting to fly over kurils, china looking Siberia from the border with a weired look ...

    Alright indulge me.

    Russia starts throwing cruise missiles against NATO formations in the Mediterranean, anything that remains above water starts bombing Lattakia.

    What's next?
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    Post  Isos Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:00 pm

    Neutrality wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    You can't punish with defence tactics, either they attack with tupolevs and make a clear message to everyone either they shut up and it will happen again with turks staying in afrin, US bombing "chemical" buildings, japan starting to fly over kurils, china looking Siberia from the border with a weired look ...

    Alright indulge me.

    Russia starts throwing cruise missiles against NATO formations in the Mediterranean, anything that remains above water starts bombing Lattakia.

    What's next?

    Russian bombing the middle east bases and those in eastern europe.

    But if they haven't allowed the bombing of SAA units more agressivly by intercepting intrudors since the begining and answered the turkish f-16 that destroyed the su-24 nothing would have happened because no one wants to escalate with russia.

    If they have proved that a downed su-24 means a russian answer then everyone would know that a downed il-20 with 15 people dead would mean a big answer of russia. They never gave any answer so those things will keep happening.

    Iran/israel issue shouldn't be resolved by russian air defence or air force. But when you let israel do what they want they take confidence and do those type of things.

    Just a question : what would happen if Syria attacks a weapon storage in israel and there is a US carrier there ? They will hit back, US and israeli.

    Yeserday 15 russians and two syrian died and no answer. They are doing this step by step destroying slowly russian assests with ambushes, trying with drones and now they try to destroy russo/syrian friendship to remove russians from syria.

    Nuclear isn't going to happen with israel bombing russian mainland for sure even if russians attack with a salvo of hundreds of missiles their military infrastructures. I don't know what they are affraid of.
    If israeli start acting agressivly just send some nuks to iran and they will shut their mouth.
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    Post  Neutrality Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:16 pm

    Isos wrote:

    Russian bombing the middle east bases and those in eastern europe.


    Rolling Eyes

    Yeah, bomb all the bases in Eastern Europe out of the blue, antagonizing and alienating the only friendly nations they had for the next 100 years. Splendid plan thumbsup


    But if they haven't allowed the bombing of SAA units more agressivly by intercepting intrudors since the begining and answered the turkish f-16 that destroyed the su-24 nothing would have happened because no one wants to escalate with russia.

    If they have proved that a downed su-24 means a russian answer then everyone would know that a downed il-20 with 15 people dead would mean a big answer of russia. They never gave any answer so those things will keep happening.

    Iran/israel issue shouldn't be resolved by russian air defence or air force. But when you let israel do what they want they take confidence and do those type of things.

    Just a question : what would happen if Syria attacks a weapon storage in israel and there is a US carrier there ? They will hit back, US and israeli.

    Yeserday 15 russians and two syrian died and no answer. They are doing this step by step destroying slowly russian assests with ambushes, trying with drones and now they try to destroy russo/syrian friendship to remove russians from syria.

    Let me ask you a simple question: do you seriously believe that people who make the decissions haven't thought these scenarios through? I also want a total retaliation for our dead guys but at the same time I realize that this kind of shit will kill even more of our own. Does that mean we should sit still and don't do anything? Absolutely not. The high command should exploit every possible angle and I'm sure that they are. They are the same people behind the plans that resulted in "clean" Syrian territory.
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    Post  Isos Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:24 pm

    Rolling Eyes

    Yeah, bomb all the bases in Eastern Europe out of the blue, antagonizing and alienating the only friendly nations they had for the next 100 years. Splendid plan  thumbsup

    It was ironical. Russia won't attack NATO. Nato isn't involved in syria ...



    Let me ask you a simple question: do you seriously believe that people who make the decissions haven't thought these scenarios through? I also want a total retaliation for our dead guys but at the same time I realize that this kind of shit will kill even more of our own. Does that mean we should sit still and don't do anything? Absolutely not. The high command should exploit every possible angle and I'm sure that they are. They are the same people behind the plans that resulted in "clean" Syrian territory.

    So israeli can kill your guys to protect a stupid f-16 while you have the power to destroy them like 10 000 time totally but you can't answer to an attack that wasn't a mistake aginst a country like turkey that has 0 nuks and israel that has 50 nuks but that could be destroy with two nuk shells without the need to use any missile ?

    Rolling Eyes
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    Post  LMFS Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:33 pm

    It is a tragedy but at least it may well justify Russia to put an end to Israel playing being at war with Syria, this has gone way too far
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    Post  ATLASCUB Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:36 pm

    Going by Putin's comments, he's gonna let this pass. "Investigate" and "accidental" is trademark diplomatic codeword..... especially at the outset of such an event. If you have a belligerent posture you come out with much stronger language, specially after the MOD delivered you everything you needed to make the case for a confrontational posture - it was right in Putin's lap.

    People really need to stop with the idea that any military action by Russia on any of these countries is gonna start WW3... it's such a silly and stupid comment meant to induce fear and for pacification...as if going after Russia's nationals has started WW3? No it hasn't...

    Chalk up another 15 dead to the tally..... what's it now? In the hundreds of Russian dead?

    How many Israeli soldiers dead? How many American soldiers dead? ... for a conflict these countries masterminded and started? Yeah that's what I thought....  

    "We apologize Putin" "We swear" " It was a fuck up" "an accident" .... lol please...

    The only ones that bear responsibility for this are Putin and the advisers who suggested the policy of appeasement to Israel. It's not the Syrians and not the Israeli pilot.... it's called, the root cause.

    Niccolo Machiavelli: It is better to be feared than loved, if you cannot be both. Should be on Putin's readlist. Although I don't think he gives a shit tbh... I mean I'm sure he cares about the fact his appeasement blew up in his face so it's a temporary embarrassment but who's gonna hold him accountable? A few dogs barking in Russia won't do anything....he knows this...... as he loves to say.... the dogs bark but the caravan (in this case stupidity) moves on....

    Till the next "incident" folks....

    Will be funny reading pro-Russia sites start to slowly but surely spin the idea that the best course of action was taken....whatever that turns out to be as it progresses..... it won't take long.  lol1 Russia's patience, wiseness and benevolence should be the theme - as a rule. Putin has spokeh.


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    Post  Tingsay Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:57 pm

    How can the S-200 not differentiate between F-16 and a turbopop??? Is it that bad of an AD?
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:06 pm

    See Putin can make Isreal pay without attacking Isreal land.

    Simply put down more AD and tell your operators its now open season on Isreali aircraft if they bomb Syria for whatever purpose.
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    Post  ATLASCUB Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:10 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:See Putin can make Isreal pay without attacking Isreal land.

    Simply put down more AD and tell your operators its now open season on Isreali aircraft if they bomb Syria for whatever purpose.

    That's the least.....

    They could also arm Lebanon (Hez) and Iran (backdoor), support BDS and call for Security Council resolutions condeming Israel, starting with this event....espectacles of all kind could be considered.....

    But given Russian responses and Putin's words today.... you'll be lucky if you get the "least"....cause it looks like you'll get nothing.
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:12 pm

    ATLASCUB wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:See Putin can make Isreal pay without attacking Isreal land.

    Simply put down more AD and tell your operators its now open season on Isreali aircraft if they bomb Syria for whatever purpose.

    That's the least.....

    They could also arm Lebanon (Hez) and Iran (backdoor), support BDS and call for Security Council resolutions condeming Israel, starting with this event....espectacles of all kind could be considered.....

    But given Russian responses and Putin's words today.... you'll be lucky if you get the "least"....cause it looks like you'll get nothing.

    Putin: Israel didn't shoot down the Russian plane deliberately. It was a result of a chain of tragic circumstances

    You know it's sad when your own leader is making up excuses for them killing your own guys

    Yeah he will just brush it under the rug so "We are making it safer, and will make sure this doesn't happen again" blah blah blah, we know the story. What an embarrassment


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    Post  Arrow Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:12 pm

    Fantast. Israel will bomb Syria many times, and Putin coward will not do anything.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:16 pm

    Putin blocked delivery of MiG-29 M / M2 Syria PAID FOR before the war, refuses S-300 to Syria, refuses S-300 for Lebanon. Allows Israel to bomb Syria day and night. Unfortunately, as long as Putin is in office, many more Russian servicemen will die unnecessary deaths in Syria. Very unfortunate.


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    Post  ATLASCUB Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:18 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    ATLASCUB wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:See Putin can make Isreal pay without attacking Isreal land.

    Simply put down more AD and tell your operators its now open season on Isreali aircraft if they bomb Syria for whatever purpose.

    That's the least.....

    They could also arm Lebanon (Hez) and Iran (backdoor), support BDS and call for Security Council resolutions condeming Israel, starting with this event....espectacles of all kind could be considered.....

    But given Russian responses and Putin's words today.... you'll be lucky if you get the "least"....cause it looks like you'll get nothing.

    Putin: Israel didn't shoot down the Russian plane deliberately. It was a result of a chain of tragic circumstances

    You know it's sad when your own leader is making up excuses for them killing your own guys

    Yeah he will just brush it under the rug so "We are making it safer, and will make sure this doesn't happen again" blah blah blah, we know the story. What an embarrassment

    There is always a safe space for those than don't want to accept the fact that being spineless is simply just that, being spineless...

    I understand a lot of Russians might in this case suffer from cognitive dissonance dealing with what's apparent.... so there is always the safe space the mind subconsciously turns to to explain what's so uncomfortable to digest, "the sweet lie"... in this case: "Strategic patience in 9D chess level moves".

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