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    Syrian War: News #18

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:59 pm

    Good news if true.


    Within Syria
    ‏ @WithinSyriaBlog
    25m25 minutes ago

    Looks like an agreement on southern Syria has been reached, SAA to withdraw from four villages it captured lately, while FSA+HTS will withdraw to northern Syria, the Syrian Police will enter all the areas with Russian forces, SAA will go back to border + military bases only.

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:03 pm

    Interesting analysis from a retired US Colonel.

    Carrots and Sticks in Syria - TTG

    Syrian-Army-Palmyra

    A little over a month ago, I wrote about a possible diplomatic breakthrough in southwest Syria. The core of this breakthrough was and remains an intense effort to speed peace negotiations between Damascus and various opposing forces in Syria. It was key to the SAA’s recent successes in reducing the eastern Ghouta, Homs and even the Yarmouk refugee camp pockets. The same methodology has enabled the rapid recent success in Daraa. This effort is spearheaded by the Russian Reconciliation Center based at Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia. In addition to pushing peace deals, it coordinates relief aid to newly reconciled areas.

    This carrot of reconciliation would not be effective without the stout stick which the SAA has become. We are all familiar with the formidable Tiger Force and the growing list of their combat successes. That success is being reinforced and replicated throughout the SAA by the Russians. Units are being reorganized and re-equipped along the Russian Army model without destroying what the Syrians themselves built over years of painful combat experience. Units raised independently of the SAA, including those trained and advised by the IRGC and Iranian Green Berets, will be folded into the SAA. This is also happening with some former rebels who have reconciled with Damascus. We could learn something from this experience given how we screwed the pooch with the Iraqi and Afghani armies.

    So, how is this carrot and stick approach working now? Prior to commencing the Daraa offensive, Damascus fully expected a large number of the rebels/jihadists to accept reconciliation. That has happened and is expected to continue to happen. At the same time they moved the cream of the SAA into place. Those forces led by the Tiger Force are gaining territory and killing jihadists at a good clip. They will be indispensable in subduing the diehard jihadists now holding the area around the Nassib border crossing and the IS jihadis adjacent to the occupied Golan Heights. Those two battles may end up being fights to the death since neither Jordan nor Israel want those jihadis crossing their borders. They’re also running out of places to be green bussed to as the SAA, Hezbollah and Iranian militias are steadily reducing the IS presence west of Dier Ezzor and al Bukamal.

    Major events are also shaping up in YPG/SDF held territory. Damascus and the PYD reached an important agreement in al Hasakah. The YPG is removing all Ocalan posters in al Hasakah while the SAA is reopening recruiting offices throughout the governorate. The SAA and YPG will soon set up joint checkpoints. Damascus wants the YPG/YPJ to join forces with the government throughout the country, handover the Tal Kojar and Simalka border crossing with Iraq along with the al Darbasiyah and al Ayn crossings into Turkey. A similar deal is in the works for the al Raqqa governorate. In exchange, the YPG wants the Kurdish language taught in the Syrian educational system, time served in the YPG to count as service in the SAA and to have Kurdish representation in the oil ministry. If all goes as planned, many YPG/YPJ units may be incorporated into the SAA.

    In other news, Ankara is slowly withdrawing their troops from the Afrin region, leaving their local proxies in charge. In my opinion this is part of a broad plan brokered by Russia in which Syria regains full control of Rojava and the border with Turkey thus negating the Kurdish threat to Turkey from Syria. Eventually, most if not all the Turkish proxy forces in Afrin will be reconciled with Damascus with Turkish/Russian prodding.

    This depends on two things, Putin’s influence on Erdogan’s ambitions (I know nothing about the extent of that influence) and Trump’s willingness to let it all go in the region. I hope Trump does just that when he meets Putin in Helsinki. Sure he will catch holy hell from the borg collective and he will undoubtedly be called Putin’s puppet for surrendering US influence in the ME to Russia. So be it. I still think it’s the smartest move we can make and Trump is the only one who can make that move.


    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2018/07/carrots-and-sticks-in-syria-ttg.html
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:20 pm

    Getting there

    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 DhcAW7QX4AEkOuN
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:28 pm


    Getting tight down there baby Cool

    And people were saying that all activity in Syria will stop during World Cup.... lol1
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:36 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Getting tight down there baby Cool

    And people were saying that all activity in Syria will stop during World Cup.... lol1

    No chance of that. Once they got the bit between their teeth it was full steam ahead. Now the pressure is really on to maximise gains before the Trump/Putin meeting in a couple of weeks.

    No wonder Nutty is off to Moscow next week, desperate to slow things down.
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    Post  Big_Gazza Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:38 am

    JohninMK wrote:Getting there


    Very soon, the goats of Southern Syria will be able to sleep without having to keep one eye open...
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:38 pm

    Anoter israeli attack on syria. Syria says they hit one of the planes involved and some cruise missiles.

    https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201807081066171144-syria-homs-military-base-attack/
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:52 pm

    Rebel-held areas of Daraa has been fully encircled it should fall within the week.
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:09 pm

    Its moving on quickly, this is the latest Peto maps


    Peto Lucem
    ‏ @PetoLucem
    6h6 hours ago

    NEW MAP update: #SAA forces captured the Air Defense Base located NW of #Daraa Al Qadim Border post. The last major "rebel" supply route to Daraa city is now cut off.  #Syria #Jordan



    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 DhptE6wXUAEq3eT


    Peto Lucem
    ‏ @PetoLucem
    5h5 hours ago

    NEW MAP: Parts of #Daraa are still under "rebel" control. However, Syrian Government Forces continue to secure the city's countryside and have cut all "rebel" supply routes. Militants inside the Governorate's capital city won't hold on for long now. #Syria


    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 DhqCgTtXcAE_yiO

    Now these are the changes coming in the southern part


    Qalaat Al Mudiq
    ‏ @QalaatAlMudiq
    4h4 hours ago

    S. #Syria: after Rebels surrendered main towns near #Jordan, Regime about to reach Wahda Lake in outskirts of #Yarmouk Valley, under #ISIS control.


    Qalaat Al Mudiq
    ‏ @QalaatAlMudiq
    6m6 minutes ago

    S. #Syria: Regime reached border with #Yarmouk Valley under control of #ISIS affiliate Jaish Khalid Ibn Walid (preparing for battle since weeks). W. #Daraa. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=32.724043&lon=35.897141&z=11&m …


    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 DhqIb6LX4AYwJ9B


    Last edited by JohninMK on Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:30 pm; edited 3 times in total
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:23 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Rebel-held areas of Daraa has been fully encircled it should fall within the week.
    The FSA etc areas may be encircled and appear to be surrendering at a good pace so you could well be correct.

    Sadly the next phase could well be much more bloody and destructive as ISIS can't/don't want to do the same, especially as many FSA etc operatives who don't want to surrender have fled into their area, but intend to go down fighting which could well take much longer.

    The'Nimr'Tiger
    ‏ @Souria4Syrians
    3h3 hours ago

    Seems with #Daraa, the biggest battle will be fought against #ISIS.

    Since all FSA/Nusra terrorists and war criminals are fleeing there to escape justice

    While local rebels have reconciled and back to normal life
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:17 pm


    Ian Grant
    ‏ @Gjoene
    5h5 hours ago

    Ian Grant Retweeted War in Syria

    #Syria #SAA almost completely sealed border with #Jordan.


    IWN
    ‏ @A7_Mirza
    4h4 hours ago

    Interactive Map of #Daraa UPDATED!
    4 new villages were liberated by #SAA.
    Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1M-_ymjR9xwOK7KMikOcUFSAE1ac&ll=32.62660952232635%2C36.097797075146445&z=12 …




    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 DhqUQEnWsAAYa0-
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:57 pm

    Moving on

    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 Dhrxd6LWsAcR1wp
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    Post  Big_Gazza Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:36 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Sadly the next phase could well be much more bloody and destructive as ISIS can't/don't want to do the same, especially as many FSA etc operatives who don't want to surrender have fled into their area, but intend to go down fighting which could well take much longer.

    Challenge accepted.... Twisted Evil attack
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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:59 pm

    Big_Gazza wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    Sadly the next phase could well be much more bloody and destructive as ISIS can't/don't want to do the same, especially as many FSA etc operatives who don't want to surrender have fled into their area, but intend to go down fighting which could well take much longer.

    Challenge accepted....   Twisted Evil attack


    Navy is already getting ready for the party and they are bringing beer kegs thumbsup

    Russian warships to hold missile firing drills off Syria's coast

    More:
    http://tass.com/defense/1012170
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    Post  PapaDragon Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:14 am


    Good read:

    Russia's strategy in Syria shows how to win a Middle East war

    http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/how-russia-outfoxed-syrian-state-s-enemies-1356165581
    calm
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    Post  calm Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:08 pm

    Rebels handing over everything they have.

    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 DhlDXczXkAAquE_
    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 DhkhXvKW0AAi_9-
    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 YnFil_WCgqE

    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 Watch?v=JIWP9Jzbzaw

    links, loots of spoils, insane. All thanks to Russian/SAA negotation efforts in last 2 years.
    https://twitter.com/MathieuMorant/status/1011590103981068289
    https://twitter.com/MathieuMorant/status/1015596506408202242
    https://twitter.com/MathieuMorant/status/1016448046635409410
    https://twitter.com/MathieuMorant/status/1016007503405043712
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    Post  PapaDragon Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:34 am


    And it looks like we have a date thumbsup

    Russia informs Free Syrian Army in Daraa that Idlib battle will begin in September

    https://smartnews-agency.com/en/wires/306164/russia-informs-free-syrian-army-in-daraa-that-idlib-battle
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    Post  calm Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:55 am

    ^
    End of Turkish-Russian Astana deal about HTS(ex Al Qaeda/Nusra) in Idlib is due to expire in that time.
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    Post  JohninMK Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:07 pm


    Ivan Sidorenko
    ‏ @IvanSidorenko1
    18m18 minutes ago

    #Syria Latest map by Damascus Now :
    With map: The Syrian Army takes control of "Tal Ash'ari" in parallel with Tafs / Tafas joining the reconciliation. Along with the liberation of "Gharz" and "the old customs" and "Al-Hajana brigade" yesterday
    Prepared by Damascus Now


    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 Dh0mTKTX0AAq8mq
    avatar
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    Post  AbdulhamidtheSecond Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:40 pm

    calm wrote:^
    End of Turkish-Russian Astana deal about HTS(ex Al Qaeda/Nusra) in Idlib is due to expire in that time.

    HTS and likewise factions are not welcomed by Turkey any either.

    Most probably, SAA will pass through Turkish lines without confrontation or those posts will be transferred to North Idlib region.

    West of Euphrates will not be much problem but I am wondering what will happen to the Eastern side...
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    Post  JohninMK Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:50 pm

    Peto Lucem
    ‏ @PetoLucem
    7h7 hours ago

    NEW MAP update: While the militants' so called "#SouthernFront" near #Daraa city is crumbling, more "rebel" held towns and villages near #Quneitra Governorate joined the reconciliation agreement with the Syrian Government. #Syria #Israel #Jordan



    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 Dh5VHfDWAAAOUhR


    Looks like another step forward


    Peto Lucem
    ‏ @PetoLucem
    3h3 hours ago

    #Breaking: Battle for #Daraa city ends in decisive victory for #Syria/n Army https://aml.ink/0yGto via @thearabsource @leithfadel

    avatar
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    Post  par far Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:09 am

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    Post  George1 Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:13 am

    Dara released

    On July 12, 2018, Syrian government troops raised the flag of the Syrian Arab Republic in Dhara'a al-Balad square near the Al-Omari mosque in the city of Dara (Deraa), abandoned by the militants of the Syrian armed opposition. It was in this area of ​​Dar'a in March 2011 that the first significant anti-government protests that led to the outbreak of the civil war in Syria began. The city of Dera was held by the Syrian armed opposition since March 2014.

    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 5680614_original



    https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3269399.html


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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:36 pm


    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 Dh_U7zpX0AAKKQl
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    Post  d_taddei2 Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:47 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Syrian War: News #18 - Page 12 Dh_U7zpX0AAKKQl


    No map update yet but just read inkhil, kafr shams and Al harrer now agreed to reconcile. It's moving fast.

    With all these western weapons they have captured over the last few months idilb is going to get it rough as the SAA will likely use up all the western weapons I.e TOW etc as it's not something they will want to keep once war is over.

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