Russian military activities in Central Africa Rep

George1 wrote:Ten armored reconnaissance and patrol vehicles BRDM-2, transferred from the presence of the Russian Ministry of Defense to the Central African Republic, delivered by the An-124-100 Ruslan transport aircraft (registration number RA-82010, serial number 01-09) from the 224th flight detachment of the Aerospace Forces Russia. Bangui, 15.10.2020 (c)...

As violence intensifies in the Central African Republic, Russia is expanding its military and diplomatic involvement in the conflict.
On 22 December, Russia expanded its military intervention in the Central African Republic (CAR) by deploying 300 military instructors to the war-torn country. Russia dispatched these instructors at the request of CAR’s President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, who feared that former President François Bozizé would derail the 27 December elections through a coup d’état. After Touadéra was re-elected via a relatively peaceful election process, Russia announced the withdrawal of these instructors on 15 January. However, Russian private military contractors (PMCs) remain active in CAR and on 26 January, they helped CAR troops kill 44 rebels.

Russia’s influence in CAR has grown considerably since 2017. In March 2018, Russian media outlet Znak revealed that the Wagner Group operated a facility in Krasnodar which trained PMCs for combat in CAR. The Russian Foreign Ministry admits to a military presence in the latter, and claims that Russia wishes to ‘strengthen the national security units of CAR’ and secure mutually beneficial mining contracts. However, Wagner Group PMCs also serve as bodyguards for CAR political elites and Valery Zakharov, a former Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) official, is Touadéra’s national security adviser.

RUSSIA’S OBJECTIVES
As CAR was not a client state of the Soviet Union and has been embroiled in a state of civil war since December 2012, the depth of Russia’s involvement there is intriguing. Russia’s strategy towards CAR consists of three objectives.

First, Russia views its military intervention as a means of expanding its diplomatic leverage there and reducing France’s long-term influence. In order to maximise its influence, Russia has forged a robust security partnership with Touadéra’s regime and maintained backchannels with ex-Seleka rebels that dominate CAR’s northern regions. This hedging strategy mirrors Russia’s conduct in Libya, as Moscow militarily supports the Libyan National Army chief, Khalifa Haftar, while engaging with other rival factions.

Due to its diverse array of local partners, Russia has emerged as an indispensable diplomatic arbiter in CAR’s protracted conflict. Prior to Omar Al-Bashir’s overthrow as Sudan’s president in April 2019, Russian diplomacy complemented Khartoum’s efforts to construct a ‘Central African opposition alliance’. This plan sought to ease tensions between CAR’s ex-Seleka and anti-Balaka rebels. Russia also played a vital role in constructing the February 2019 peace agreement, which united Touadéra’s government and 14 non-state armed groups around the cause of peace. Through active cooperation with the African Union and the UN on national reconciliation in CAR, Russia has burnished its reputation as a diplomatic arbiter in sub-Saharan Africa.

In addition to bolstering its status and placing itself at the front of the line for mining sector contracts, Russia has used military force and diplomacy to counter France’s longstanding influence in CAR. France was the dominant international player during the first years of the civil war. However, the end of Operation Sangaris in October 2016 opened the door for greater Russian influence. Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean, director of Ifri’s Russia-NIS Center, described Russia’s presence in CAR as ‘one of the main irritants’ in Franco–Russian relations and stated that there is ‘no talk of cooperation’ between France and Russia in the country.

Russian media outlets have expressed frustration with France’s unwillingness to recognise what Moscow sees as its stabilising role in CAR. Due to these tensions, Russia has blocked France from transferring arms from Somalia to CAR, as it claims that these transfers violate the UN arms embargo. Russia is also embroiled in an information war with France in the country, as Yevgeny Prigozhin-aligned Facebook profiles bolster Touadéra’s standing and counter messages from French government-aligned social media accounts.

Second, Russia wishes to challenge the UN-backed sanctions regime against CAR, as these measures undermine Russia’s commercial interests. Its opposition to UN sanctions surfaced during the early stages of CAR’s civil war. In April 2014, Russia obstructed a US and France-led effort in the UN Security Council (UNSC) to impose sanctions on Bozizé and two of his political allies. More recently, Russia has reluctantly voted for UN resolutions extending sanctions on CAR but has lobbied aggressively for exemptions to the arms embargo and restrictions on CAR diamond exports.

In early 2018, the UN allowed Russia to donate light weaponry to CAR. This exemption resulted in Moscow’s transfer of two arms tranches to Touadéra’s regime. This breakthrough caused Russia to step up its challenge to the UN arms embargo. In September 2019, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov claimed that Russia was negotiating with France and other UN partners on expansive measures to ease the arms embargo. The breakdown of these negotiations caused a standoff at the UN in January 2020. Russia threatened to lift the arms embargo entirely and proposed a rival UNSC resolution to counter France’s embargo proposal. Russia and China ultimately abstained from the UN arms embargo, which rankled France. These tensions suggest that this will remain a contentious issue.

Russia has also lobbied for a more expansive easing of UN sanctions against CAR’s diamond industry. In 2016, CAR authorities were allowed to export diamonds from five conflict-free 'green zones'. As the stabilisation of additional regions in the country could result in further waivers, Russia wants to expand its role as a monitor of hostilities in CAR. Russia also served as 2020 chair of the Kimberley Process, which monitors ethics of exporting diamonds. As Russian state-aligned companies, such as diamond giant Alrosa and Prigozhin-aligned M-Invest, seek to expand their commercial deals in CAR, Russia will likely be more aggressive in negotiating exemptions from the UN sanctions regime.

Third, Russia regards its presence in CAR as a springboard for expanded influence in Central Africa. It has strengthened its relationship with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) by condemning predatory resource extraction by foreign companies. Russia also wants to spearhead large-scale infrastructure projects in the DRC. In May 2019, Russia deployed military specialists to the Republic of Congo, and Wagner Group PMCs cooperate with Rwandan security forces in CAR. In addition, Russian civilian nuclear energy giant Rosatom views its October 2019 nuclear science centre construction deal with Rwanda as a gateway to Central Africa.

Turning to the diplomatic arena, Russia has stridently opposed external interference in the Burundi and Cameroon security crises and has expanded its informal arbitration role in the DRC. If Russia projects diplomatic influence in CAR and eventually establishes a military base there, as Touadéra has requested, Moscow could capitalise on the vacuum of US leadership in Central Africa and strengthen its challenge to French influence in the region.

As the CAR civil war passes its eighth anniversary, Russia has emerged as the leading external military and diplomatic stakeholder in the country. Since Touadéra’s short-term position is secure, Russia will seek to counter French power projection displays, such as its 24 December flyover mission, and work with the African Union on a more comprehensive peace settlement.

With the international community focused on other challenges – such as extremism in the Sahel, Al-Shabaab’s resurgence in Somalia and the Libyan civil war – Russia’s hegemony in CAR could quietly consolidate in 2021.

Samuel Ramani is a DPhil candidate at the University of Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations, who specialises in post-1991 Russian foreign policy.

Although Moscow does not officially recognize its activities, Wagner – a private Russian military company – is reportedly operating under different names and structures, such as companies related to gold and diamond mining, military training, and cyber warfare.

Bloomberg agency, citing anonymous sources, said the Russian mercenaries have been deployed in several countries, including Sudan, Central African Republic, Libya, Zimbabwe, Angola, Madagascar, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Mozambique, and possibly the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Furthermore, the affiliates of the military company were quite likely to have been deployed in Libya, South Africa, Sudan and Mozambique in a bid to train local armies, protect high-level figures, fight rebel and terror groups in addition to protecting the resources of diamond, gold and uranium.

In exchange for these services, the Wagner offshoots were reportedly granted exclusive privileges and licenses to procure weapons, technology, and military service and use minerals and natural resources in these countries.

In line with the Russian geostrategic vision to expand its influence in the continent of Africa, some countries are of greater priority for Wagner activities and among them are Libya, South Africa, Sudan and Mozambique.

Libya case: Search for permanent military base

Having spread in Sirte and Jufra -- located in the east and southeastern Tripoli respectively -- Wagner mercenaries are currently deployed in Jufra Airbase located in central Libya and Ghardabiya Airbase in Sirte.

Sources linked to the US and the UN argue about 2,000 Wagner mercenaries -- from Serbia, eastern Ukraine and mostly Russia -- were present in the country. Additionally, it is believed that the mercenary company also brought Syrian sellswords through the military companies under its inspection.

Wagner's military inventory reportedly includes light-weight reconnaissance and surveillance UAVs, sniper rifles, Pantsir missile system along with warplanes such as MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-24.

The adversaries in Libya, following a UN-led agreement in Geneva on Oct. 23, 2020, agreed to deport foreign forces, Wagner in particular, out of the country within a course of three months.

However, forces loyal to warlord Khalifa Haftar have not yet left Sirte and Jufra, meaning the mercenary group is doing groundwork for Wagner's Russian army to establish one naval and two aerial bases in NATO's "soft" southern flank.

Central Africa: Gold and diamond mines

While the internal conflicts deteriorated the security atmosphere of the Central African Republic since 2013, it is argued that Russia pushed out France, the most influential country in the region, and the Wagner group has transformed into one of the prominent actors.

Under the name of military training, hundreds of Russian soldiers and some 450 Wagner elements have allegedly held activities in the country since 2018. The Africa Report claims that there are over 1,000 "military trainers" provided by Wagner in the country.

Wagner provides security for various institutions and plays a pivotal role in training the presidential guards and army. In fact, Wagner affiliates, in addition to military training, protect President Faustin Archange Touadera against the rebel groups which control nearly two-thirds of the country.

It is reported that the activities of Wagner members are not limited to the security field as they protect gold and diamond mines of the country and hold a certain amount of the revenue.

Most of these mines are located near Bambari city in the northeastern regions of the country where mostly Muslim Seleka groups have an influence.

It is noteworthy that the Russian Lobaye Invest Company received a license to search and extract gold and diamond in some regions a few months after Moscow dispatched military equipment such as rifles, rocket launchers and heavy armored vehicles to capital Bangui in 2018.

"Russian trainers" stay at the Berengo Palace which was allocated to them in 2018; the place was the residential area of Jean-Bédel Bokassa, the self-proclaimed emperor (1966-1979). The Russian military is known to have established a military base in an area of 40 hectares of the palace.

Sudan: Logistical base for operations in Africa

According to the news published by Sudan and western media organs, Wagner launched its search for gold in Sudan in 2017 through companies named "Meroe Gold" and "M Invest".

Wagner also trained the rapid support forces in the Darfur region and military personnel of the Sudanese army.

While Wagner operates in various Sudanese cities, including Port Sudan, Khartoum and Darfur, some local and western media outlets report that the mercenary group carried weapons and personnel from Sudan to the Central African Republic via airports and borders.

This arguably was one of the reasons why the US administration included "M Invest" -- a shell company of Wagner -- in its sanction list on July 15, 2020.

Mozambique: Daesh/ISIS presence

Wagner also reportedly operates in the Cabo Delgado Province located north of Mozambique and known to have rich natural gas fields. In 2018, Ansar as-Sunnah announced its loyalty to the Daesh/ISIS terror group, and it has a presence in the region.

However, the group was forced to change its tactics in this region due to environmental and climate conditions.

While an estimated 160-300 Russians have been present in the country since 2019, they are said to have access to UAVs and high-tech military data analysis equipment.

Furthermore, the group's mercenaries are said to be deployed in the port city of Mocimboa da Praia in Cabo Delgado Province, along with Nacala and Namialo regions near the province; international firms have invested $60 billion in this region to benefit from the open sea gas fields.

The Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO) Party leader, Ossufo Momade, accused Moscow of spreading "Russian mercenaries who launched acts of sabotage". However, Russia rejected this accusation with an official statement.

*Writing by Ali Murat Alhas

Finty wrote:All new to me this, I was aware of Wagner and other Russian involvement in Libya but not elsewhere on the continent...

PapaDragon wrote:

Finty wrote:All new to me this, I was aware of Wagner and other Russian involvement in Libya but not elsewhere on the continent...

Keep in mind that Wagner is just one of at least 5 different Russian PMC companies (that we know of so far) which often get bundled together under that name by journalists (especially western ones who turned name 'Wagner' into synonym for Russian mercenaries)

When you see Russian PMCs somewhere they could very well be any one of these firms but since in that business discretion is better part of profit they all gladly let Wagner take all the headlines instead of them any time something happens  

Such modest folks

Finty wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

Finty wrote:All new to me this, I was aware of Wagner and other Russian involvement in Libya but not elsewhere on the continent...

Keep in mind that Wagner is just one of at least 5 different Russian PMC companies (that we know of so far) which often get bundled together under that name by journalists (especially western ones who turned name 'Wagner' into synonym for Russian mercenaries)

When you see Russian PMCs somewhere they could very well be any one of these firms but since in that business discretion is better part of profit they all gladly let Wagner take all the headlines instead of them any time something happens  

Such modest folks

Indeed, fair play to them. I'm all for it really, if the CIA and Academi nee Blackwater can get up to all sorts of skullduggery in the third world then the Russians should have the same right! Of course that has consequences, I remember reading a few years back when a load of Russians were killed in Yankee airstrikes in Syria.