nomadski wrote:As long as Syria is in civil war , it remains vulnerable . From imperialist yank and racist zionists . I think that an attack from yank proper on Iran itself is likely . A limited operation . To force Iran to accept terms . Are we then going not to defend ourselves ? In case the zionists or English or French opened another front ? Then why wait now against usraelis ? For fear that the yanks will attack ? So we will forever be waiting in fear that more hooligans will join the fight ?
The only consideration should be military . I still think striking directly from Iranian soil into usraeli soil is not called for . But striking the zionists occupation forces in Syria is called for . In Golan heights . Here Iran can send troops . And Syrian troops can join to form a front . Hit them and engage on the ground . Did Hezb forces have S300 ?
Giving S-300s to Syria will not improve at all the security much ,over Pantsirs.. Why?
Because Russia rules of Engament with israel and NATO over Syria will not allow to take advantage
of the extra range of the S-300 missiles... For blocking Israel from Bombing Syria , a major warning against them
will have to be told and a no fly zone for Israel declared over any part of Lebanon or Golan heights too.. and keep Israeli planes 200km away from Syria borders.. which S-300s can do.. but it all depends on Politics.. Rules of Engagement. that is... So not even S-400s will do any change ,if the rules of engagement remains the same.. ie.. wait Israel to launch missiles from close to Syrian border and then only engage their missiles but no the planes.
Air defenses needs like dozens of seconds if not a minute or more to get them ,lock on enemy planes and its missiles.
So Israel is taking advantage of this by doing fast Hit and Run tactics.. there is about 20km to 30km from lebanon border to Homs city which was attacked. So this short distance is the only thing Israeli missiles needs to travel ,and the closer are the missiles launched to its target ,the less time there will be to intercept them.
If Syria and or Russia declares a no fly zone for Israel over any part of Syria and Lebanon and threaten Israel to retaliate their planes flying even in international airspace ,if they are armed with air to ground missiles ,showing hostile intentions to bomb Syria and S-300s or S-200 used to enforce this.. then that will be a huge difference.. it will force
Israel to launch their missiles from farther distances. probably too far from significantly limiting its capability to hit anything..as was the attack of NATO over Syria. So all said.. S-300s alone will do nothing ..as long Russia rules of engament remains the same. And TO enforce a full scale shield ,is necessary to not even allow Israel to try again any other attack ,your combat planes to come into the offensive and chase any Israeli plane as soon take off and move in the direction of Lebanon or Syria. But such operation will require Russia to deploy at least 30 combat air superiority combat planes in Syria to counter Israel large airforce.. Because if Israel send 10x to 15x, F-16.. and Russia sends only 4x combat planes.. then Russia will be in a major disadvantage. it will need to start shooting down Israeli airforce all the way to 300km -400km away. . something that looks more like a declaration of war against Israel..
So this is why is complicate to properly defend Syria , without expending a fortune.. because to properly protect Syria
from any other attack.. Russia will need to kick Americans from Syria ,block their flights there and start dog fighting Israeli planes if they firing missiles at Syria ,such scenario is more like the first steps before a major war.
So what is Putin going to do? He will try diplomacy the best he can.. but it looks like Israel is trying a very limited limited conflict against Russia.. with a few Russian planes shot down and Israel claiming it was self defense .
So is things escalate and the attacks more frequent , then the only way Russia will have to stop the aggression
of Israel on Syria is the use of Force..is the only thing Israel respect.. they were pacified for 1 month after they got
1 plane shot down. If 2-3 israeli planes shot down by RUssia airforce over lebanon will certainly pacify them for a long time.. Netanyahu will need support from all government to authorize a small war with Russia.. an authorization he will not get. they know Russia can wipe Israel from face of planet. So Neyanyahu is only taking advantage of Russia Rules of Engagement ,that allows Israeli combat planes to freely flight over lebanon and position their planes and launch missiles and not shooting down them.. before they get at combat range.Israel is also taking advantage that Syria is still busy with another war inside with ISIS and with NATO movements inside its own airspace with full freedom.
So S-400s ,S-300s and not even Buks which Syria have will not help if the Rules of Engagement are not changed..
Putin have much more information of things happening in the political level , so only him knows ,if it is or not the better time to start a fight with israel... eventually i guarantee you.. that when a world war 3 start. between US and Russia start.. and Russia have nothing to lose..since there is war already , that Israel will be wiped of the face of earth.. or at least its military bases all destroyed. So is crazy that Nutanyahu place all its bets on the sinking American ship, if a major war happens ,they will be target too.. for being a major ally of US and for all what they have been doing against Syria and Russia since 2011. aiding terrorism to target Russian and Syrian soldiers.
Only when Russia openly warns israel that any of its airforce that comes withing 200km to 250km of Russian base will be shot down..and fulfill its promise ..as warned.. and use its airforce to lock Israeli planes as soon moving to position for an attack..and shot down Israeli planes that are caught launching missiles towards Syria , that will be a huge difference..a night day difference and Israeli planes will be forced to abandon its hostilities to Syria or to start a small war with Russia over Syria.
But for Russia to enforce a full no fly zone will be very expensive ,since will need many combat planes in Syria to push israeli Airforce away. Eventually if diplomacy fails , Russia will need to shot down israeli planes and use force. to stop them. my prediction is Israel will get its ass kicked by Russia if they continue the same way.. all that will trigger this
change of stance will be wounding or killing Russian soldiers.. by israeli planes.. so mark my words.. they will get spanked and netanyahu will get a bloody nose and a broken leg for any hostile action against Russia military ,regardless it was intended or not.