1. Very much will be different in the world with two military superpowers, and no im not talking about Russia...
So you think it will be China and the US perhaps?
Amusing, and I would say very wrong for two reasons... first is that China does not really want to be the US... they are building up their naval power and aircraft carriers... but to defeat the US, not to replace it... and not to actually defeat it in combat, but to nullify it and render it no longer an impediment to their growth and development. Second, the devil does not share power, so the only way to have as much power as the devil is to kill the devil and take its place... therefore if you are suggesting there will be two military superpowers in 2030 then I suspect you will be meaning the EU and China... and even there I don't think the EU could get its shit together to raise its separate navies into anything that could rival the US... let alone in the available time.
2. You are making less and less sence man, you are saying that a huge navy that includes 5-6 large carriers, 40-50 missile deatroyers, 50 frigates and 50-60 submarines only will be large targets for the Russians and have no strategic role by 2030?
The all powerful US navy has nothing that can really reliably shoot down Onyx, yet Zircon is twice as fast, and Kinzhal is even faster and has longer range... China will be perfectly fine with 5-6 large carriers and 40-50 missile destroyers and 50-60 submaines because China is not baiting the bear and the chinese and Russians generally don't disagree on very much... certainly nothing to bring them into conflict with each other.
The US on the other hand are far more aggressive and are moving military bases towards the Russian Federation from pretty much every direction.
It is the US sailors that should fear Russian missiles... the Chinese Sailors will be wondering when they get some of their own...
Yeah the us better start scrapping thier navy today, becouse its no use to them at all.....
10.000 missiles? What on earth would Russia (or anybody else) use for launch platforms for all that missiles by 2030? 30 Tu-22Ms and ~100 MiG-31 going back and forwards 50 times?
Navies are very useful for many things, but the one thing they are not good for for Russia is winning WWIII.
They will never do that for them, so there is no point in trying to build up a US Navy like force.
Having three large carriers will make the existing force more effective and powerful because it adds AWACS and fighter aircraft into their mix, which makes them all safer and better prepared for different situations.
And to answer your question, the Kinzhal is a relatively small missile and could probably be carried internally by the dozen or more by PAK DA type bombers... Tu-22M3Ms will likely carry 4 each... how many ships would they need to sink to blunt a naval attack?
Every Corvette they have could carry 8 Zircons each, every frigate will likely have 16, and every destroyer could have 32 or more, while their subs can carry them too.
They are not big missiles so a standard shipping container could carry two with a huge solid rocket booster to get them up high and moving fast too.
Preventing an enemy navy from moving ships within about 3,000km of your coastline pretty much eliminates it as an issue really.
Look, the whole point is that China is in progress of develop a huge modern military, and they have the money to do that. Will Russia have tech that will give them very high quality weapon systems, yes. But that does not mean that China wont pass Russia in most branches in some years. By 2030 China most probably will have u budget 5 times larger then Russia, a 4-5 times larger navy, many more 5th generation fighters and so on. If u cant see that...well u must be blind.
China has made enormous strides in the last few decades and their progress is rather impressive, but if money bought you a powerful force then Saudi Arabia would be the most powerful country in the region... it is not.
The US has a budget that is 10 times bigger than Russia and its forces are not 10 times more powerful and not ten times better.... in fact a lot of money they spend is a welfare state keeping a few people so rich it is uncomfortable... but even with all this money spent and all this military power, the Russians did a much better job of taking out ISIS in Syria for a fraction of the cost.
I dare say Russia spent less on that military operation than the US has spend on its last major military exercise...
Money spent does not mean squat.
Now China spent about 5 times more for defence than Russia. China will be a superpower, Russia only regional power.
Someone should have told North Korea... all you have to do is spend money and you get to be a super power?
= That's close to 30 modern destroyers and BY THE END OF 2020, not 2030, not even 2025
So 30 Zircons later and those modern destroyers are on the sea floor and who is more powerful?
Now verkhoturye51's earlier submarine comparison about "75 hunter killer submarines" is weird as well and just not based on reality. Atleast he's probably correct that the Russian submarine fleet would make any Chinese coastal invasion costly, but that scenario is totally ridiculous to begin with.
So costly they would not even contemplate it. Even in the 1990s they didn't try any invasions... why would they even try now?
BTW I don't see NATO talking about occupying any Russian land either...
But the thing is: Russia will not have 75 "attack" submarines, AFAIK. They currently have around 20 diesel subs and 20 SSNs and SSGNs. That's 40-45 boats. Is that - in itself a very respectable fleet - going to massively grow any time soon? When? How?
And again: by 2030 China will have atleast a similar number of SSNs (probably slightly larger, IMO) + a huge number of modern diesel boats, probably topping 60. So there will be a country with 75 "hunter-killers", but it's not going to be Russia.
And what do you think they will do with these subs?
How will the US react to having a rival in China?
You seem to think the US will just stand by and let China become more powerful... I would expect the US will go into overdrive to promote democracy to China... and I wonder how this will be received in Beijing...
Most seem to atleast agree that these direct Russia vs. China comparisons and scenarios are pointless and unrealistic. However, I think Russia's naval capabilities should actually be compared to the UK, France and maybe Germany combined. Now that's a realistic goal, kind of anyway, especially when you consider all the coastal and brown water capabilities Russia has.
The Russians will be able to defeat any navy or any group of navies combined... as long as it is near her territory.
Nothing will say fuck off like a squadron of four MiG-31s with mach 10, 2,000km range anti ship missiles.