- if, as u state, the RF needs them to protect SLOCs, so does India with her overseas trade.
SLOC beyond Russian waters away from Russian land based airpower and air defence systems... that means CVNs but also Destroyers and Cruisers that can operate away from Russian waters for long periods... Russia does not have CVNs nor modern destroyers or cruisers for such a role and wont have either till about the start of the 2030s... she will be able to fake it in 2 years time with the Kuznetsov back in the water and the upgraded Kirovs back in the water too, but they are going to be spending the next half decade in testing and working out new gear and new tactics and their upgraded Kirovs probably wont have their full Surface to Air missile batteries that their new destroyers will have let alone their new cruisers... but that is OK because they likely wont have Su-57 like aircraft and Yak-44 like aircraft on the Kuznetsov till after 2025 either. Talk of new types of cats suggests they will probably be testing something new on the K in the next few years and that means testing bigger heavier aircraft because that is the real point of new types of catapults.
India wont be deploying carrier groups much beyond their own waters for some time now... as you keep pointing out their main focus is their neighbours with which they already share large land borders... if Russia was focussed on the Baltic States and the Ukraine there would be no need for aircraft carriers there either...
- but if they keep getting only Russian arms instead, China will know that they r under the RF thumb;
Buying Russian stuff because Russia tells them to buy Russian stuff and not buy anyone elses stuff would be India under Russias thumb.
Just like CAATSA where the US telling India they have to buy US gear and stop buying Russian gear that they want is being under Americas thumb.
Russia has never forced India to ever buy anything, and never will. The US is already trying... and it will only get worse. France is too with their demands for India to buy Rafales instead of local production of Mirage 2000s which they wanted.
then defending her interests will be harder in the context of present PRC-RF relations.
Only buying Russian gear means they will be armed with much better weapons in much greater numbers for less money spent... for the cost of 36 Rafales they could have probably gotten a couple of brand new aircraft carriers built by Russia including full air groups.
For 15 billion for leasing Hornets they could probably get 300 Su-57 5th gen fighters plus a huge pile of weapons to go with them.
The "American shit" is not much more useless, if at all, than the Russian or french shit
They will quickly find that American shit is not really fully compatible so to make it work they need to withdraw perfectly good existing systems and equipment and replace it with American shit... A-50s replaced by Hawkeyes, Il-78s replaced by Boeing tankers, Su-30MKIs replaced with brand new build F-15s most likely... India will move into second place for money spent on "defence" but only because it is so expensive...
-they have the E. & W. Fleets; the latter probably has the SCS in its AOR. But the Indian strategy is to defend her turf, not expand into the W. Pacific.
If they don't want global expansion then they don't need aircraft carriers... that is what aircraft carriers are for... to allow your ships to operate anywhere with independent aircraft support.
-they could invest le$$ into Russian EMALS in a win-win for both.
The Americans would not approve of using US aircraft on Russian developed EMALS, and equally even if they part fund the project which seems to have already developed a prototype system for deployment on the Kuznetsov for testing, the Russians will want India to use MiGs rather than much more expensive Hornets.
- so r the F-15Es, Su-27/30/33s & MiG-29/35/31s which r similar to the F-18E/Fs. So, is getting more newer Rafales better, even if they'll cost a lot more?
The claim was that they wanted the Hornet over the MiG-29 because they wanted something newer... the hornet is older than the MiG-29 not newer.
-at least it's proven & more reliable, until better equipment is mature.
It is certainly better than nothing, but it wont be free, and is a big step in the wrong direction... it is a bit like buying a new sniper rifle that uses a flintlock firing mechanism... it works...
- I ask again: which other nations besides PRC & Pakistan will/may India need to fight in the next 20-30years?
No one can say... that is why when you buy weapons and aircraft for your military you buy them... you don't borrow them or buy them from manipulative countries that might render them useless if you want to use them against their wishes like France and the UK and US have a long history of doing and Russia does not.
Bangladesh, Iran, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand? Since they r all in the China orbit for decades to come, the US would be delighted. If not, India will have many other types of fighters to use against any of them.
These American planes they might potentially buy will be totally different from anything they have operated before and need a completely new infrastructure to support then and new operational mentality to use properly... and they will be three to four times more expensive than anything comparable they could buy from Russia, so the reason for pissing all this money away is that it might make the US look favourably on India... perhaps... maybe... that is a huge risk and a serious waste of money that could be invested in development and growth in India that will give rather more benefit to the Indian people.
- the Apra Harbor hosts SSNs & can serve LHA/Ds, FFGs, DDGs, CGs, CVNs & SSBNs.
My apologies... I thought it was just an airfield but they have clearly made it murder central for the region... not sure that effects anything though.
It is a forward base to kill people from.
no, it's not possible- he wouldn't have lived till 2021 even if he survived in 1945.
If he could be living on a base on the dark side of the moon they easily could have modified his DNA to extend his natural life and he could easily be cloned billions of times too... you might be a clone.
no, they r former India that was held together by the UK.
Pakistanies and Bangledeshis and Indias are like Georgians, Texans, and Californians... but each with different religions.
-but now she has to regain her buffer areas or be more vulnerable to pressure/interventions.
No she does not... buffer states are useless, and the cost of maintaining them makes them undesirable.
The cost of subsidising eastern europe far outweighed the potential value of having them fight on the side of the Soviet forces against western europe... I rather suspect most would have folded like a camping bed. The East Germans might have put up a fight, but the rest... would probably start fighting each other.
Catholic & Protestants wouldn't invest in the Orthodox & Muslim Russia like they did in the PRC with her longest border with the USSR
Russia was athiest just like communist China...
There is little christian brotherly love today either...
- look like Greece & Turkey is been & being treated by the US & EU today, as u wrote: Turkey is getting hostility from most of HATO now..
For not being Washingtons bitch... it is nothing to do with religion and everything to do with Turkey not falling in line and doing what it is told.
- India can do the same & has to start somewhere; if the F-18s r stop gap, no need to copy them.
There are thousands of different components that go in to a modern aircraft... they would be better to create industries to make some of those components for all Indian aircraft than trying to make a whole plane on their own.
It is like making a tank... with the Arjun they tried to make their own tank and ended up with a Leopard 2... but not a good model Leo. Most of the components like engine and armour etc etc came from foreign companies but the idea was to make an Indian tank.
The problem was EGO.
They should have started simple and developed a simple but well armoured tank with a good gun and good armour and good engine... not a great gun and great armour and a great engine. Fit it with good optics and communications and produce it in numbers and then work on a better gun and better armour and a better engine. The engine could be used in small boats and heavy trucks and as backup generators in hospitals and factories and stuff...
The chassis could be used as a heavy BTR and a heavy BMP vehicle... they could have sold them to other countries as a cheap easy to maintain and operate vehicle with solid reliable performance.
Learn to paint before you expect to compete with the masters.
They might have come up with a cheap simple tank design that might even appeal to a superpower that could be mass produced and delivered to allies in numbers that make them very useful with low maintenance costs and a short logistics tail burden...
It is the same with Tegas... it didn't need to be 5th gen... a good solid reliable light fighter that is cheap to buy and operate and can provide numbers and do simple duties to free up bigger more expensive fighters to roles that require their extra capabilities.
A three ton payload, a 1,500km operational radius with two external fuel tanks and 6 AAMs... to be light and nimble and cheap...
Make it multirole so you could have two 500kg bombs replacing two of those AAMs... they could be dumb iron bombs using a sort of Gefest &T targeting system giving precision accuracy from safe altitudes, or guided bombs using sat guidance or laser guidance perhaps using a targeting pod.
Btw, Pakistan also use China's supplied Y-8 AWACS together with French & US made fighters.
Pakistan got arab money or US loans. US loans can only be used for US planes. The US would tolerate Pakistan buying from Europe but would not tolerate Pakistan buying Soviet or Russian gear in significant numbers...
- they won't be spending 6-10 months at sea, so their fuel will last a lot longer; ski rumps could be added, so only 2 catapults will remain, or all 4 will be used less.
Ski jumps are not compatible with cats, and if they are operating in Indian waters then it makes rather more sense to use existing land based aircraft rather than buying new carriers that wont be going anywhere.
.-their fleet won't be as big, but IMO they can integrate US gear with non-US aircraft, since the Rafales cross decked with a USN CVN
Yeah, great... the Rafale... the only carrier based fighter that would cost even more than hornets...
don't put=between an LHD, a multi-role ship that was acquired for training & HADR & multi-role fighters F-18s!
India bought the ship to get experience in an area they had no previous experience... it was a chance to see if it could be useful and if new ships could be useful in the future for the Indian Navy... they agreed to not use it in war because they were not sure they had a use for it in the first place and wanted some experience with an operational system. If they decided it could be useful then they would build their own ships so they wouldn't need to use it in war anyway.
From the American position it is less charitable... they sold them landing ship technology but basically said they couldn't use it in combat... at the time meaning you can't use it against our other customers in the region.... Pakistan. If India had actually violated the agreement and attacked China I honestly think the Americans would not have objected because they have always hated China... though are happy to use them when it is convenient.
Something similar is happening now with India.... they now find India is more useful against China than Pakistan is, but they could care less about any of those three countries and are using each of them against the other where they can.
Besides, the ex-Varyag was sold to the PRC "for non mil. use only" too; now it's combat ready.
That was sold by the Ukraine and I very much doubt there were any stipulations on that sale except take it away and give me the cash.
-they could go back & forth. India can also get OHRs to cover the area between E. Africa & Australia, besides using her IL-38s, A-50s & P-8s.
Not really the same. Plus the best ground based long range radars are Russian and the US is likely to object...
- they have good hands & brains to avoid that.
Not enough. It does not make sense to buy completely different expensive equipment that does pretty much what existing equipment already does that is less reliable and subject to sanction. Save billions of dollars and buy the same stuff from Russia and make it in India for yourself so you can manage everything and no one can take it away from you and you will never get to the position where you have to choose your own interests or being Americas bitch to keep their gear in your service working.
What Iran did was incredibly hard and if they had any other choice they would have taken it in a heart beat... what they did was essentially walked for hours every day to bring a bucket of water to their house... for the same price and energy setting up some water bore near their house with inside taps would be what they really wanted to make the person who walked and got the water every day able to do something more productive instead... it is about force multipliers and working smart not working harder than you need to.
.- theoretically it's possible, & they mastered parts production into which India could invest.
It is theoretically possible, but also bloody stupid to make it your plan. Iran couldn't make parts for Hornets if they wanted to... they have never had access to Hornet aircraft and the parts in the Hornet are nothing like the parts in the F-14 and F-4 and F-5... all of which are from previous generations of aircraft.
Do you think you can keep a modern BMW running on spare parts from a Ford Model T?
The US will be also happy that the IrAF won't have as many F-14s, & could even help India to upgrade them.p
Bullshit. The US would fear Iran getting rid of their F-14s... a plane they know inside out... because they would likely replace it with Su-30s or Su-35s armed wiht much more potent RVV-BD missiles they might get permission to produce locally...
The US can't help India to make F-14s or their parts because all the tooling and equipment has been destroyed to prevent Iran using it.
India has no carriers an F-14 could operate from. Iran only had F-14A aircraft with the older weak engines... not the upgraded F-14D models.
- China was not in the shit with the US for decades; now India took that role, & it'll be a long time, if ever, before India becomes US adversary.
It just takes a China friendly president to change everything... like Biden... he might dial back all the anti china rhetoric and India is left high and dry before anything even starts.
-no, their alliance becomes only stronger by each month.
The only thing the US and Japan has in common with India is that they all fear China... a totally irrational fear because China does not mean any of them harm in the way the US harms countries. Otherwise India is a democracy and the US and Japan are not...
- I won't bet on it being for the better.
Better for who?
.-where else the Indians r so "successful"?
Lots of ethnic Indians here in New Zealand... most are well educated and successful people.
The ethnic Chinese also ran Singapore & Thailand, where anti-Chinese riots/coups based on race alone r unheard of.
Lots of tension in Thailand and Singapore over ethnic Chinese... they are no where near to running either country that is just silly.
We now have VP-elect 1/2 Indian C. Harris, but she won't rule alone & many Ms of White Americans r for Trump.
Hahaha... you say it like it means anything... I guess two terms of Obama in the White house and problems of racism are all solved and black people can walk the streets in safety now... If hilary had won all of womens issues would be sorted once and for all... no wonder she was so pissed.
-that's a very small portion of Chinese, as most of them live in the suburbs, among the general population, at least in USA & Canada.
Can't speak for the US or Canada but here in Dunedin in New Zealand we have had a Chinese Mayor and an Indian Mayor.... Peter Chin, and Sukhi Turner.
[quot]- with her BRI, etc. there, China won't let India take any Pakistani territory; India will lose more if she goes too far.[/quote]
Why would China care about India taking Paki territory? They didn't send troops to Venezuela or Syria... in fact they don't send troops at all most of the time... the last time was against Vietnam and it was so poorly planned and executed Chinese troops were starving because they weren't supplied with food and water...
.-not me, they did it long before I showed up here in 1988.
Not you personally, but you are living on stolen land... like the children of a drug cartel boss who live in comfort on the dividends from criminal activity...
.- true, on a sentimental level. It'll take many years for their "Reconquista" to become a real issue. Even if those areas secede, they won't become part of Mexico again.
When the US dollar is internationally worthless you might find people trading on the border to get mexican money to pay their bills in money other people will accept rather than the monopoly money the US dollar will become.
- like those Su-33/34/35s or MiG-35s based on the Su-27 & the MiG-29? Those r not radical new designs, by any stretch.
By 2030 it will be Su-57 and LMFS and Su-33 and MiG-35s with parts and engines and radars and weapons from the Su-57 and LMFS programmes which will make them vastly more potent than the aircraft around today.
The US will have F-35s... though by 2030 they might actually be bug free by then... only 400 million a plane...
China/India could get Tu-22Ms/F-15Es/16s but chose to modernize H-6s & get Rafales & F-18E/F Block IIIs, respectively.
Hahaha... India has not chosen anything yet and those American planes are simply not options for China... China will likely make a flying wing stealth bomber to replace the H-6 anyway.
the bottom line is: China & India r the 2 tigers that have a hard time sharing the same mountain.
Both are well fed, there is no reason to cross in to the others territory and risk a fight that could lead to fatal injuries to either or both parties.
Pakistan won't be able to observe their fight, if it comes, from a safe point.p
Pakistan has been funding terrorists for decades... they only get away with it like Saudi Arabia does because they are in Americas camp.
Recently Pakistan has become more irritant than use to the US, so it might be a plan to get a deal of the century going wiht Kashmir... ie Pakistan gives up all its territory to India... and in return India will take that territory and rule over the inhabitants with an iron fist... you know... like Israel with the Palestinians...
they did piss away billions on Russian & French arms & now want to try the American arms, hoping to gain something from it.
With the Russian weapons they got what they paid for. They made the mistake of trying to work with Israel for the important stuff like IADS and battle management systems and EW systems and that is what has failed them. Now they are starting to look at Russian SAMs... just a question whether they will build a useful system that defends their territory or they end up with the flashy systems with holes so big their enemy can drive a truck right through like Saudi Arabia.
Of course it was all Saudi Arabias fault for creating a real conflict on their own border... they seriously underestimated their enemy and got burned repeatedly for their toy play army.
Russia can supply the shiny big pieces of a nice chess set, but without the tactics and systems integration and management it just sits on the desk looking pretty... you can't actually use it because even a kid will kick your ass and make you look silly.
War is more than just shiny toys... and India is looking to buy some shiny useless toys from America for reasons other than having a real use for them... that is always going to bite them in the ass and in the pocket... and it will probably also cost them two potentially critical allies in their future... Russia wont put up with this crap forever, and believe it or not... China.
India has a future... no matter how bad they fuck up, but one future is independence and growth and development with BRICS and the other is a colony of the west... a bitch... a tool to contain China... and when that pans out one way or the other expect to be discarded pretty quick... like Pakistan or Ukraine when you are no longer useful.