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    S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #3

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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:52 pm

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    Post  Sujoy on Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:45 pm

    Indian news outlet are quoting Voennoye Obozreniye that India might be the first country to purchase the S-500

    https://twitter.com/I30mki/status/1306221742289874945?s=20

    Maybe the Russian speakers in this forum will have a better idea if Voennoye Obozreniye did publish this piece.


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    Post  GarryB on Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:26 am

    Have heard Turkey say they want to joint produce S-500 too, but the only things I have heard from Russia about it is that the priority will be getting it into Russian service first and it wont be for export for a decade or so at least.

    For a start the 600km flight interception range of the S-500 missiles would mean it could not be exported under the current missile technology export regime rules anyway.
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    Post  Sujoy on Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:19 pm

    GarryB wrote:Have heard Turkey say they want to joint produce S-500 too, but the only things I have heard from Russia about it is that the priority will be getting it into Russian service first and it wont be for export for a decade or so at least.
    If India purchases the S-500 it will not be before 2025. If wishes were horses, I would hope India can purchase the S-500 before 2025.

    Su 30MKIs will be replaced by the Su 57. But that's at least 10 years away. So between now and then some big ticket purchases will have to be made from Russia.

    Meanwhile, China is using merchant vessels to launch rockets. They carried out such a test this week, again. These merchant vessels can also accommodate Ballistic Missiles. Given China's fleet of nearly merchant 5,000 ships & the size of container ships, covertly placing a few dozen MRBMs/ ICBMs aboard such ships & dispersing them in the ocean would give it a new, virtually undetectable first strike option

    S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #3 - Page 29 China10

    Right now, India is completely defenseless against ICBMs. So India will have to find a way to intercept these Chinese ICBMs, SLBMs. S-500 provides the answer.

    GarryB wrote:For a start the 600km flight interception range of the S-500 missiles would mean it could not be exported under the current missile technology export regime rules anyway.
    India did sign the MTCR, so maybe India can go ahead and purchase the S-500 complex.
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    Post  Isos on Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:38 pm

    China is also defenceless against ICBMs.

    But India seems to have low amount of missiles. Even the Brahmos seems to be produced in low numbers and low numbers of launch plateforms.

    They should buy the russian kh-59MK2 stealth cruise missile and some 24 cheap Gepard frigate with 16 UKSK cells and upgrade the brahmos to 700km or make their own kalibr with 1500km range.

    India can't hit the rear of Chinese military. They will deal only with the frontline troops when China will destroy Indian bases/factories with long range cruise missiles.

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    Post  Begome on Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:42 pm

    Sujoy wrote:Indian news outlet are quoting Voennoye Obozreniye that India might be the first country to purchase the S-500

    twitter.com/I30mki/status/1306221742289874945?s=20

    Maybe the Russian speakers in this forum will have a better idea if Voennoye Obozreniye did publish this piece.
    Nah, it's just the usual scavenging and regurgitation by journos...Voennoye Obozreniye is topwar.ru and going by their quote they are referring to this article (topwar.ru/175052-kitajskaja-pressa-populjarnost-rossijskih-zrk-s-500-na-mirovom-rynke-zavisit-ot-ih-vozmozhnosti-borby-so-stels-istrebiteljami.html), which quotes an already-reported-on Chinese article extolling the virtues of S-500 based on the parameters published so far and then speculates that India may become one of the first buyers. Even the topwar article itself says that this is just speculation by the Chinese author.
    So what we have is Indian news outlets quoting a Russian news outlet quoting a Chinese news outlet, where the author speculated that India may be the first to order an export version of the Russian S-500 Very Happy

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    Post  Sujoy on Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:37 pm

    Isos wrote:But India seems to have low amount of missiles. Even the Brahmos seems to be produced in low numbers and low numbers of launch plateforms.
    Production of Brahmos has been stepped up, but yes number of missiles is way below what China has.

    Isos wrote:They should buy the russian kh-59MK2 stealth cruise missile and some 24 cheap Gepard frigate with 16 UKSK cells and upgrade the brahmos to 700km or make their own kalibr with 1500km range.
    Your suggestions are good. Nirbhay cruise missile is being developed. This cruise missile will have a 1500 kms range.

    Then there is the Shaurya cruise missile that is being produced now. It has a max range of 1900 kms.

    Isos wrote:India can't hit the rear of Chinese military. They will deal only with the frontline troops when China will destroy Indian bases/factories with long range cruise missiles.
    China will probably need Ballistic missiles to hit every part of India. But then India can do the same.

    Begome wrote:Nah, it's just the usual scavenging and regurgitation by journos...Voennoye Obozreniye is topwar.ru and going by their quote they are referring to this article (topwar.ru/175052-kitajskaja-pressa-populjarnost-rossijskih-zrk-s-500-na-mirovom-rynke-zavisit-ot-ih-vozmozhnosti-borby-so-stels-istrebiteljami.html)
    Thanks for sharing the original link.

    Begome wrote:So what we have is Indian news outlets quoting a Russian news outlet quoting a Chinese news outlet, where the author speculated that India may be the first to order an export version of the Russian S-500 Very Happy
    How credible is Voennoye Obozreniye / topwar.ru? And why are they quoting a Chinese author? Is the Chinese author a well renowned expert? A Russian expert making this statement makes sense,but a Chinese expert commenting on Russian topics.

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    Post  Isos on Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:42 pm

    China will probably need Ballistic missiles to hit every part of India. But then India can do the same.

    I'm talking about precision strikes with convebtionnal warheads.
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    Post  Sujoy on Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:10 pm

    Isos wrote:I'm talking about precision strikes with convebtionnal warheads.
    China has been suggesting that DF-26 ballistic missiles with conventional warheads can hit target with precision across India (apart from South China Sea).
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    Post  Isos on Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:26 pm

    Sujoy wrote:
    Isos wrote:I'm talking about precision strikes with convebtionnal warheads.
    China has been suggesting that DF-26 ballistic missiles with conventional warheads can hit target with precision across India (apart from South China Sea).

    The thing is that BM will make the enemy believe its a nuclear attack and could lead to a total nuclear exchange from the opponent.

    A cruise missile is less likely to trigger a nuclear response.

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    Post  Begome on Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:38 pm

    Sujoy wrote:How credible is Voennoye Obozreniye / topwar.ru? And why are they quoting a Chinese author? Is the Chinese author a well renowned expert? A Russian expert making this statement makes sense,but a Chinese expert commenting on Russian topics.
    topwar is hit and miss AFAICT, like most sources...they quote the Chinese article because it extols the S-500...this is rather common in Russian mass media; it's nice to have other people confirm how awesome Russia is so liberals have less of a reason to whine about "Russian state propaganda" lol1
    I'm not familiar with the Chinese author, so no idea how competent he is at military or geopolitical analysis.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:26 pm

    Meanwhile, China is using merchant vessels to launch rockets. They carried out such a test this week, again. These merchant vessels can also accommodate Ballistic Missiles. Given China's fleet of nearly merchant 5,000 ships & the size of container ships, covertly placing a few dozen MRBMs/ ICBMs aboard such ships & dispersing them in the ocean would give it a new, virtually undetectable first strike option

    What they are saying there is that our fleet of civilian merchant vessels could be armed and dangerous so if you are feeling paranoid we have just made our merchant fleet legitimate targets for an enemy to sink for whatever reason.

    A TOPOL Truck mounted ICBM could easily be driven onto any rollon rolloff vessel and have the missile launched, but making the ships you use to trade with internationally into legitimate military targets sounds a little short sighted.

    Especially for Russia who has stealthy submarines with ballistic missiles that can also be sailed around the world hidden ready to strike enemy targets with little warning too.


    Right now, India is completely defenseless against ICBMs.

    Everybody is... that is the point.

    So India will have to find a way to intercept these Chinese ICBMs, SLBMs. S-500 provides the answer.

    If India thinks they can be safe from Chinese IRBMs, how would they feel about China buying S-500 too?

    India buying S-500s to protect India from ICBMs might make China think India plans to attack them and to use S-500 to protect themselves from the response so naturally China will have a really good think about things and come up with some solutions... which might include making more IRBMs than India can afford S-500s. Or worse they might choose to use them before they become useless. Or they might just develop their own version of Poseidon and sail them around to sit off either side of India ready to flood your coastal areas.

    If you want to get into a useless arms race... don't do it against the country that produces most of the crap for the west... it is an area of strength for them to mass produce stuff.

    India did sign the MTCR, so maybe India can go ahead and purchase the S-500 complex.

    India and Russia signed it and are bound by it so they can't make it.

    China is also defenceless against ICBMs.

    Lets not keep the gloves on... everyone is defenceless against ICBMs in the sense that they are going to get through... the ABM system around Moscow is supposed to delay its destruction so there is time to issue commands for retaliation... it was never intended to keep Moscow or Russia safe.

    So what we have is Indian news outlets quoting a Russian news outlet quoting a Chinese news outlet, where the author speculated that India may be the first to order an export version of the Russian S-500

    To be fair it is probably true... the Russians do tend to sell India what they want... no matter how complicated their demands for this or that added Israeli or French hardware...

    Still don't think they will be exporting S-500 before 2030...

    Production of Brahmos has been stepped up, but yes number of missiles is way below what China has.

    India has a choice.... it can embark on an arms race with China and piss away money that could be much better spent on other things, or it can look to create ties with China and work together with its neighbour and ignore the chinese whispers in its ears coming from the US and the west.

    Just saw a TV news programme on the Chinese spying on people in the Pacific.... MY GOD. They even said they were spying on people with criminal records for some nefarious purpose... I nearly fell off my chair.... in New Zealand there are US spy stations at Whenuapai that are dedicated to spying on all cell phones and computers and pagers and other electronic communications in the Pacific... the system in Australia handles Asia... all for the US to spy on everyone... but watch out for those Chinese... they are the bad guys.... they are the ones we can't trust... Rolling Eyes

    And we probably can't trust them really, but they have no history of spying on us like our American and British allies...

    How credible is Voennoye Obozreniye / topwar.ru? And why are they quoting a Chinese author? Is the Chinese author a well renowned expert? A Russian expert making this statement makes sense,but a Chinese expert commenting on Russian topics.

    A Russian expert... a real one... would be asking why they are so set on wasting enormous amounts of money and creating lots of bad will where even if you wipe them out you don't benefit in any way from that, and if they wipe you out they don't benefit in any way from that either... they have a billion consumers... you could sell them lots of stuff... you have a billion consumers they have a lot of stuff to sell... the only countries that really benefit from China and India fighting are the US and those countries joined to them at the hip... ie Japan and Australia.

    I suspect the Chinese expert was used to further US and Australian and Japanese interests because Russian experts don't like to be used like that... except the bought and paid ones...

    China has been suggesting that DF-26 ballistic missiles with conventional warheads can hit target with precision across India (apart from South China Sea).

    Suggestions.

    If they start launching a few DF-26 missiles in your direction will you wait for them to go boom to see what they are, or will you immediately respond with nuclear armed missiles targeting things that were pre targeted...

    You might have minutes to respond... you wont have time to work out what is going to get hit by their strike and you wont know if it is a nuke or a conventional strike... you wont have time to select new targets so you have to respond targeting something your missiles were already aimed at and most likely with a nuclear warhead... do you think they will understand?

    A cruise missile is less likely to trigger a nuclear response.

    A carefully planned and launched cruise missile attack might result in explosions being the first indication something is wrong like in Saudi Arabia...


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